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Post by stephen on Nov 3, 2023 13:04:34 GMT
It was my Mum's Birthday yesterday, and Kaleb is in her Top 2 faves. Thank FUCK that SITD worked. An extremely lucky break, but I really think Kaleb's days are numbered. He's just too likable, too physical, and has a good head for the game. He really is Canadian Malcolm.
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Post by stephen on Nov 20, 2023 18:51:28 GMT
Oh wow, I completely dropped the ball on my updates, especially as we've gotten two big episodes and one of the best blindsides in the modern era.
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Post by stephen on Nov 20, 2023 20:03:34 GMT
Week 8 leaderboard:
1. Emily. Lost Kaleb but recovered nicely, is in tight with the Reba Four and it seems Drew might have a stronger loyalty to her over the likes of Dee and Julie. Something tells me that this is going to be critical not just to Emily's potential winner arc, but also what dismantles the Reba Four. I think Drew will try to make a move at Emily's behest and winds up cracking that foursome.
2. Drew. This guy seems to have some serious social capital. He skated by clean on the Sifu vote without anyone floating him as a possibility, and used his sway to pull off the Kellie blindside. Drew knows where Austin's advantages are and he seems to be less targeted than Dee or Julie. I do think Drew will jump the gun soon and cause the Reba Four's downfall as listed above, but right now he's sitting pretty.
3. Dee. Seems to be poised in a good position but also appears to be the Reba figurehead, and I feel like that's going to bite her in the ass soon. Still, she was part of the Kellie blindside and seems reasonably insulated... but there are rumblings already that she might be in the crosshairs.
4. Jake. Skated by on the skin of his teeth, but I think it bought him some critical time. I don't think they're going to want to take the shot at Jake now that Bruce could be vulnerable, but more to the point, I just don't see a Reba pagonging playing out. I think someone like Drew will recognize the power that someone like Dee has and want to cultivate some of the stragglers to potentially make a move, and Jake clearly wants to find harbor. I dunno, I think he's safe for the time being.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 20, 2023 23:39:30 GMT
My Mum's other fave was Kellie. Not a good couple of weeks for her
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Post by stephen on Nov 21, 2023 14:54:00 GMT
My Mum's other fave was Kellie. Not a good couple of weeks for her Meanwhile, Emily stock is skyrocketing.
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Post by stephen on Dec 1, 2023 0:20:52 GMT
Sad to see Bruce go, but I'm glad he got some good content in his farewell episode. The chat on the beach with Jake is one of my favourite moments of the season. He really made the most of his second shot.
Now for the Week 9 leaderboard:
1. Emily. Duh. She flushed a second person's idol out of the game, she still maintains her allegiances with the Reba Four, and it looks like they're about to crack and I feel like Emily's in the perfect position to slot right in. This episode felt like her coronation, and unless something unfortunate happens in the next episode or two (i.e. someone recognizing Emily's meteoric rise and sniping her before the finale), I think she's our winner.
The rest of the leaderboard is pretty inconsequential tbh. I'm seeing cracks fomenting in Reba, and I feel Julie is going to take the first shot from within. I'm thinking Jake snakes past to the finals along with Emily, and Katurah probably comes along for the ride. I think there could be a very real scenario where Julie flips on Reba to take out Drew or Dee (maybe causing Austin to bungle an idol play to save them), then the remaining Rebas are knocked over like dominoes, with Julie the last one standing... and then Jake takes her out in fire to complete their arc together. Emily wins the season 7-1-0, but Jake cops a sympathy vote from Kendra (and maybe Bruce, though I think Bruce will respect the move that got him out) and Katurah gets blanked. That's my prediction. Three lawyers in the final four and the financial analyst trounces them all.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 7, 2023 10:07:18 GMT
Sad to see Bruce go, but I'm glad he got some good content in his farewell episode. The chat on the beach with Jake is one of my favourite moments of the season. He really made the most of his second shot. Now for the Week 9 leaderboard: 1. Emily. Duh. She flushed a second person's idol out of the game, she still maintains her allegiances with the Reba Four, and it looks like they're about to crack and I feel like Emily's in the perfect position to slot right in. This episode felt like her coronation, and unless something unfortunate happens in the next episode or two (i.e. someone recognizing Emily's meteoric rise and sniping her before the finale), I think she's our winner. The rest of the leaderboard is pretty inconsequential tbh. I'm seeing cracks fomenting in Reba, and I feel Julie is going to take the first shot from within. I'm thinking Jake snakes past to the finals along with Emily, and Katurah probably comes along for the ride. I think there could be a very real scenario where Julie flips on Reba to take out Drew or Dee (maybe causing Austin to bungle an idol play to save them), then the remaining Rebas are knocked over like dominoes, with Julie the last one standing... and then Jake takes her out in fire to complete their arc together. Emily wins the season 7-1-0, but Jake cops a sympathy vote from Kendra (and maybe Bruce, though I think Bruce will respect the move that got him out) and Katurah gets blanked. That's my prediction. Three lawyers in the final four and the financial analyst trounces them all. uh oh
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Post by stephen on Dec 7, 2023 14:03:12 GMT
Fuck you, Austin.
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Post by stephen on Dec 7, 2023 14:12:17 GMT
Week 11 leaderboard.
1. Dee. How the fuck did she skate by with no one thinking, "Well, why not blindside Dee if Julie knows about the blindside?" She's got Austin wrapped around her little finger and she straight-up told him Julie was her #1. I feel she's got a great shield in Julie as well. I'm not crazy about Dee's edit, as I feel she's being set up as the final boss more than anything else, but after Emily got yeeted, who fucking knows now.
2. Julie. Yeah, she doesn't have to worry about the negative "mom" label the way Dawn and Monica did. If Julie gets to the end, she's winning, and she's showing she's not taking this lying down. Problem is that everyone knows she wins if she gets to the end, and she has to get there, and she burned an idol to do it.
3. Jake. Strangely, I think Jake's got new life now, and he's the only one with a constant through-line edit that makes me feel like he could win as an underdog sitting at the end. He just has to pitch himself right, but it's clear the Belos like him a great deal on the jury, he went out of his way to try and save Kaleb so he probably can get Kaleb's vote, and Emily might vote for him if he pulls out some magic in the endgame. I'm very confident Jake is at the FTC this season, and he keeps talking about being a wolf in goat's clothing . . . I feel like the man might have some gas in the tank even he didn't know he had.
4. Katurah. Same with Jake. Now that Bruce is gone, she's getting some content that isn't Bruce-centric and I feel like she's getting ready to gear up to make moves. She'll need to differentiate herself really quickly from Jake, as they both have similar stories and moves to their credit, but Katurah's not gotten a single vote against her (I think?) and that secret lawyer think has to come up again later on. Are we getting three lawyers in the FTC, with Jake/Julie/Katurah? I think that could happen.
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Post by stephen on Dec 15, 2023 0:04:09 GMT
Week 12 leaderboard.
1. Dee. I mean, she pretty much has this thing locked up if she makes it to the final three. She did exactly what Austin should've done last week by taking out her #1 ally's ride-or-die, thereby keeping Austin close and unable to stray. The only thing that gives me pause is that I feel like the show is wanting us to also root against Dee, and I think she might be the victim of Jake's impending splashy idol play if he plays it correctly. Surely none of the others in the game bar Austin want to sit next to Dee at the end.
2. Jake. My boy's got an idol to his name and he is extremely self-aware of the importance of needing to make a critical move now. His reads have largely been solid but he's been undone by other elements outside of his control (namely Katurah), and I feel like he knows that it's suicide to go to the end against the Reba girls. My hunch is he takes one of them out with his idol and then forces fire against the other.
3. Julie. She got Drew out of the game and she still has Dee as her ride-or-die. But I do feel that barring an immunity win, she's done for at five unless the rest of the players suss out Dee as an endgame threat and feel Julie's more beatable at fire.
4. Katurah. She's not Austin, who I feel just has zero win equity now that he publicly misplayed his advantage and lost Drew. But Katurah has a steeper climb to the million than Jake, who at least has the ammo to make a big late-game move with his idol. I love Katurah, she's wonderful TV, but I don't really see the argument she can make at FTC with her current resume.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 15, 2023 0:10:14 GMT
Jake is so entertaining
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Post by stephen on Dec 15, 2023 0:10:50 GMT
Jake is so entertaining I am gonna miss that man after this season.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 15, 2023 0:10:57 GMT
Week 12 leaderboard. 1. Dee. I mean, she pretty much has this thing locked up if she makes it to the final three. She did exactly what Austin should've done last week by taking out her #1 ally's ride-or-die, thereby keeping Austin close and unable to stray. The only thing that gives me pause is that I feel like the show is wanting us to also root against Dee, and I think she might be the victim of Jake's impending splashy idol play if he plays it correctly. Surely none of the others in the game bar Austin want to sit next to Dee at the end. 2. Jake. My boy's got an idol to his name and he is extremely self-aware of the importance of needing to make a critical move now. His reads have largely been solid but he's been undone by other elements outside of his control (namely Katurah), and I feel like he knows that it's suicide to go to the end against the Reba girls. My hunch is he takes one of them out with his idol and then forces fire against the other. 3. Julie. She got Drew out of the game and she still has Dee as her ride-or-die. But I do feel that barring an immunity win, she's done for at five unless the rest of the players suss out Dee as an endgame threat and feel Julie's more beatable at fire. 4. Katurah. She's not Austin, who I feel just has zero win equity now that he publicly misplayed his advantage and lost Drew. But Katurah has a steeper climb to the million than Jake, who at least has the ammo to make a big late-game move with his idol. I love Katurah, she's wonderful TV, but I don't really see the argument she can make at FTC with her current resume. Huh, I don't see it. Why do you think that??
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Post by stephen on Dec 15, 2023 0:20:36 GMT
Week 12 leaderboard. 1. Dee. I mean, she pretty much has this thing locked up if she makes it to the final three. She did exactly what Austin should've done last week by taking out her #1 ally's ride-or-die, thereby keeping Austin close and unable to stray. The only thing that gives me pause is that I feel like the show is wanting us to also root against Dee, and I think she might be the victim of Jake's impending splashy idol play if he plays it correctly. Surely none of the others in the game bar Austin want to sit next to Dee at the end. 2. Jake. My boy's got an idol to his name and he is extremely self-aware of the importance of needing to make a critical move now. His reads have largely been solid but he's been undone by other elements outside of his control (namely Katurah), and I feel like he knows that it's suicide to go to the end against the Reba girls. My hunch is he takes one of them out with his idol and then forces fire against the other. 3. Julie. She got Drew out of the game and she still has Dee as her ride-or-die. But I do feel that barring an immunity win, she's done for at five unless the rest of the players suss out Dee as an endgame threat and feel Julie's more beatable at fire. 4. Katurah. She's not Austin, who I feel just has zero win equity now that he publicly misplayed his advantage and lost Drew. But Katurah has a steeper climb to the million than Jake, who at least has the ammo to make a big late-game move with his idol. I love Katurah, she's wonderful TV, but I don't really see the argument she can make at FTC with her current resume. Huh, I don't see it. Why do you think that?? I feel like Dee's been getting a slightly negative tinge when it comes to how she and Drew treated Jake, how she's been consistently wrong in stating things like her suspicions on Emily having an advantage when we know she hasn't, and Katurah's perspective on the showmance being too distracting in the game. Plus I watch the show with a few casuals and they don't like Dee, even though on paper she's doing everything she should be. I think she's turning out to be the final boss, and her losing would be justified by those slight moments of negativity. I also feel like Dee winning would be slightly disappointing on a narrative level, if only because in the era of 90-minute episodes, we don't really know much about Dee specifically. I feel like of the remaining five, she's the biggest cipher. That's not a fault of her or her gameplay, but I feel like we'd be getting a bit more from her than we have been, especially if she's our ultimate winner.
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Post by stephen on Dec 22, 2023 12:48:37 GMT
Well, we wound up with a fairly dominant winner and I appreciate that they weren't afraid to give her a tinge of villainy. Dee had a bit of Boston Rob in her (complete with her own Ambuh in Austin, even though the roles were reversed). I do wish I had known a bit more about her as a person, as I feel like she was hidden a bit too well in favour of showier, more bombastic personalities and characters. All I know about Dee is the "American dream" stuff about her parents, that she has a big toe, and that she has multiple #1s.
Overall, Season 45 was a good one. Some iconic characters like Jake, Emily, BRUCE and Katurah (seriously, I'd love to see those four come back, especially Jake and Katurah, as I feel they'd have something to prove and them being humbled this season might help them either go super-far or flame out magnificently), some excellent narrative developments (the downfall of Drew is one of my favourite things they've done in the new era), and the 90-minute runtime definitely helped.
I'd say my overall ranking of new era seasons is currently 43 > 45 > 42 > 44 > 41.
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Post by stephen on Dec 22, 2023 14:06:58 GMT
As for my personal roster of non-winning New Era players I want back for a Second Chances-type season:
Deshawn (41) Brad (41) Mike (42) Omar (42) Cody (43) Jesse (43) Carson (44) Medivac Matthew (44) Jake (45) Kaleb (45)
ALTS: Drew (45), Sami (43)
Liana (41) Tiffany (41) Tori (42) Lydia (42) Karla (43) Noelle (43) Carolyn (44) Sabiyah (45) Katurah (45) Emily (45)
ALTS: I feel like I need someone from 44 here, so I guess Frannie or maybe Jaime?
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 23, 2023 12:19:07 GMT
I love Jake (probably my 2nd favourite of the new era), but Dee's win was 100% deserved.
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Post by stephen on Dec 23, 2023 14:01:58 GMT
I love Jake (probably my 2nd favourite of the new era), but Dee's win was 100% deserved. Yeah, I can't fault Dee's game here. Probably the cleanest win of the new era.
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Post by stephen on Dec 23, 2023 14:04:29 GMT
As for my personal roster of non-winning New Era players I want back for a Second Chances-type season: Deshawn (41) Brad (41) Mike (42) Omar (42) Cody (43) Jesse (43) Carson (44) Medivac Matthew (44) Jake (45) Kaleb (45) ALTS: Drew (45), Sami (43) Liana (41) Tiffany (41) Tori (42) Lydia (42) Karla (43) Noelle (43) Carolyn (44) Sabiyah (45) Katurah (45) Emily (45) ALTS: I feel like I need someone from 44 here, so I guess Frannie or maybe Jaime? For fun, I did a BrantSteele simulation of this cast I assembled here and BROCCOLI BRAD won against Jesse and Medivac Matthew. The actual simulation was really funny, especially as Brad was building this huge rep but kept copping votes from the minority, and eventually Omar won Final Immunity but decided to put himself in fire to Underwood himself against Brad, and Brad smoked him. Hilarious stuff. (Also, Emily was the first boot and Carson/Carolyn/Kaleb/Sabiyah were pre-merge -- this was a savage season against fan-favourites.)
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 23, 2023 14:44:59 GMT
Jesse so close again
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Post by stephen on Dec 23, 2023 15:51:05 GMT
Jesse so close again As per the simulation, Jesse kept getting into fights and leaving alliances. Which feels very much like someone trying to live up to a legacy on their second time playing, and I could absolutely see Jesse 2.0 playing that way. Funnily enough, the simulation had him and Cody on opposite tribes at the start, they came together at the swap, and he immediately tried to flip on Cody only for Cody to save himself with an idol. Jesse at least got a single vote at the finale: from Jake (mayor of Ponderosa). Even Jake couldn't get with the majority in his second time playing.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 23, 2023 22:27:49 GMT
Appropriate, considering Jesse and Jake are my Top 2 of the new era.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 30, 2024 2:32:41 GMT
New season of Aus Survivor just started fyi stephen
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Post by stephen on Jan 30, 2024 2:33:42 GMT
New season of Aus Survivor just started fyi stephen I can't watch it till this weekend, so no spoilers.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2024 21:33:02 GMT
Three episodes into Australian Survivor: Titans vs. Rebels and I am quite fond of this cast.
Standouts for me: Kirby (love her so much), Eden, Mark, Carrick, Rianna (tentative winner pick), Viola and Feras.
Loved all three boots and was very pleased that we're getting more gamers than "TITAN STRONG" strength-based alliances. There's potential here for some all-stars.
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