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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 21, 2020 1:10:15 GMT
This Saturday is the Director's Guild awards, a pivotal precursor award for both best director and best picture. Statistically the DGA and best director winner have matched up 65 out of 72 times or 90%. The only "recent" misses were 2012 (Argo), 2002 (Chicago), 2000 (Crouching Tiger), 1995 (Apollo 13), 1985 (The Color Purple) and 1972 (Godfather). In three of those examples, the DGA winner wasn't nominated for best director. In other words, you don't bet against the DGA winner, unless it wasn't nominated. For best picture, they have matched 55 out of 72 times or 76%. Since the addition of the preferential ballot, they have been accurate 6 out of 10 times.
The PGA and DGA winner often goes to the same film. Since 2000, we saw the PGA and DGA match 13 out of 19 times. Overall, it's a 22 out of 30 accuracy or 73%.
Who has the best chance of winning? I would say Sam Mendes. He won the Globe, Critics Choice, and his film won the PGA.
Who might upset? I would say either Quentin Tarantino or Bong Joon-Ho. Both directors are attached to films, which won a major best picture prize.
Taika Waititi and Martin Scorsese have the least likely chance.
My prediction will be Mendes, but feel free to make the case for another contender.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 21, 2020 6:40:41 GMT
Probably Mendes. Atm I can't see him losing either BP or BD.
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chris3
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Post by chris3 on Jan 24, 2020 18:14:28 GMT
Is there a reason why Mendes is such a consensus pick for DGA? True, he won the Golden Globe, but that's hardly ever been an accurate predictor. Is it because of the PGA win? That certainly helps but we all know about the recent trend of splits. I know the DGA usually likes to award technical marvels, but hell, Dunkirk was a technical marvel and Nolan lost to Del Toro. I'm not trying to be a contrarian, I predicted Mendes above too. I just find it weird that in a year with a Scorsese mob masterpiece, a Tarantino return-to-form, and the most critically-acclaimed (and accessible) foreign film BP contender of all time, we're all just assuming that Sam Mendes of all people is going to take the win, all for a one-take gimmick movie heavily and blatantly indebted to (IMO superior) very recent work by more famous auteurs (namely Nolan, Cuaron, and Inarritu). I'm just surprised by the confidence people have that Mendes is taking it.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 25, 2020 17:48:14 GMT
There's no way Mendes is losing this.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2020 23:52:49 GMT
Is there a reason why Mendes is such a consensus pick for DGA? True, he won the Golden Globe, but that's hardly ever been an accurate predictor. Is it because of the PGA win? That certainly helps but we all know about the recent trend of splits. I know the DGA usually likes to award technical marvels, but hell, Dunkirk was a technical marvel and Nolan lost to Del Toro. I'm not trying to be a contrarian, I predicted Mendes above too. I just find it weird that in a year with a Scorsese mob masterpiece, a Tarantino return-to-form, and the most critically-acclaimed (and accessible) foreign film BP contender of all time, we're all just assuming that Sam Mendes of all people is going to take the win, all for a one-take gimmick movie heavily and blatantly indebted to (IMO superior) very recent work by more famous auteurs (namely Nolan, Cuaron, and Inarritu). I'm just surprised by the confidence people have that Mendes is taking it. It's the consensus pick for the reasons stated in the OP: won the globe, critics choice, and its film won the PGA. Splits between the PGA and DGA are in the minority.
Being a technical marvel doesn't necessarily equal best director win. Woody Allen won over George Lucas. Robert Benton won over Francis Ford Coppola. The Shape of Water is very much a technical achievement, as it blends together various genres together and requires a lot of technical precision.
I am not sure if I understand your "one-take gimmick" criticism. The point of the continuous one-shot take was to make you feel like you're following the soldiers as they go through enemy lines. In other to accomplish such feat, they had to rehearse every scene for six months straight (before shooting) and create a fake set in order to design the camera to shoot all those scenes. If they didn't get the math right or shoot at the right day, the scene wouldn't work. You can argue that Gonzalez-Inarritu did it already, but it was never in the context of a war film. The film Rope was done in a one-shot format.
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Post by doddgerhardt on Jan 26, 2020 0:07:43 GMT
Is there a reason why Mendes is such a consensus pick for DGA? True, he won the Golden Globe, but that's hardly ever been an accurate predictor. Is it because of the PGA win? That certainly helps but we all know about the recent trend of splits. I know the DGA usually likes to award technical marvels, but hell, Dunkirk was a technical marvel and Nolan lost to Del Toro. I'm not trying to be a contrarian, I predicted Mendes above too. I just find it weird that in a year with a Scorsese mob masterpiece, a Tarantino return-to-form, and the most critically-acclaimed (and accessible) foreign film BP contender of all time, we're all just assuming that Sam Mendes of all people is going to take the win, all for a one-take gimmick movie heavily and blatantly indebted to (IMO superior) very recent work by more famous auteurs (namely Nolan, Cuaron, and Inarritu). I'm just surprised by the confidence people have that Mendes is taking it. I agree. I mean I wouldn’t be surprised if Mendes did win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 26, 2020 6:27:49 GMT
Mendes won
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 26, 2020 6:30:05 GMT
There's no way Mendes is losing this. Yep he won. I did have a weird moment an hour before, I was watching SNL, and someone I follow tweeted that Bong won. I was so surprised, but I realized that they must have been confused and thought he had. I figured they probably never watched the DGA awards before, and didn’t know that every film nominee gets to make a speech. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 26, 2020 6:35:36 GMT
so 1917 wins best picture. That's the race folks. All the acting races are sown up and now the BP and directing races are too. Going to be a really exciting Oscar night.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Jan 26, 2020 6:41:25 GMT
so 1917 wins best picture. That's the race folks. All the acting races are sown up and now the BP and directing races are too. Going to be a really exciting Oscar night. 1917 is undoubtedly winning BP however I still think Bong could win BD, regardless of DGA. Count him out at your peril! 😈 |
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Post by Pavan on Jan 26, 2020 6:51:11 GMT
I'm still not counting Parasite yet.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 11:59:10 GMT
I updated the Guild chart. 1917 is the Guild leader. Check it out.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 26, 2020 12:29:49 GMT
so 1917 wins best picture. That's the race folks. All the acting races are sown up and now the BP and directing races are too. Going to be a really exciting Oscar night. 1917 is undoubtedly winning BP however I still think Bong could win BD, regardless of DGA. Count him out at your peril! 😈See I'm the opposite, I think Mendes has Director locked up but Parasite could still take Picture. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 26, 2020 13:50:16 GMT
Once again Award industry refuses to take side with Marty, I don't get it. Dances with Wolves all over again...😞 As Harvey Keitel said once famously when Marty had 0 Oscars - “Maybe he is getting what he deserves, exclusion from mediocrity". Sounds about right....... |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 26, 2020 14:21:24 GMT
As Harvey Keitel said once famously when Marty had 0 Oscars - “Maybe he is getting what he deserves, exclusion from mediocrity". Sounds about right.......  He should've won 6 by now, do you think he could win next year?... I don't think so I dunno but I'd say Robert De Niro is in a position to win his 3rd before Hanks or Denzel .........not kidding......... |
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 26, 2020 14:22:03 GMT
Seems 1917 wining BP is a lock now. And most likely BD, too. I don't think there's gonna be an upset (by Bong or QT for example).
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Jan 26, 2020 16:19:57 GMT
1917 is undoubtedly winning BP however I still think Bong could win BD, regardless of DGA. Count him out at your peril! 😈See I'm the opposite, I think Mendes has Director locked up but Parasite could still take Picture. Definite possibility. |
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chris3
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I just ordered a slice of pumpkin pie...
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Post by chris3 on Jan 26, 2020 16:45:42 GMT
NOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!
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He should've won 6 by now, do you think he could win next year?... I don't think so