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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 20, 2020 20:33:08 GMT
likely be Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or 1917, right? Is there any realistic road for any movie outside of those three to get Best Picture? Or are the three that I mentioned far enough ahead that it is a near guarantee that one of them will win? Simple enough question I know, but I am still interested in gauging public opinion on it. Thanks for any comments or opinions in advance!
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Post by DanQuixote on Jan 20, 2020 20:34:22 GMT
Yeah, but I think Hollywood is a distant third behind the other two.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 20, 2020 20:36:41 GMT
At this point you are probably right, DanQuixote.
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Post by stephen on Jan 20, 2020 20:37:08 GMT
BAFTA still could throw us a curveball, but with as compressed a season as this is, the race is pretty well set between Bong and Mendes. Tarantino lost a lot of crucial steam; he would need DGA to stay alive, and for BAFTA to give him at least one major win in tandem with Pitt. But because he won't get any momentum from a guild win at WGA, if Parasite wins there (likely), it more or less clinches the top spot in Original Screenplay because it's a good way to recognize Bong himself if he's unlikely to beat Mendes in Director.
The way I see the rest of the season playing out: 1917 wins DGA. Parasite wins BAFTA Best Film while 1917 takes BAFTA British Film and Director. Parasite wins WGA Original Screenplay, Gerwig Adapted. Those screenplay and director wins are repeated at the Oscars, with Parasite pipping it to the post in Best Picture.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Jan 20, 2020 20:40:39 GMT
BAFTA still could throw us a curveball, but with as compressed a season as this is, the race is pretty well set between Bong and Mendes. Tarantino lost a lot of crucial steam; he would need DGA to stay alive, and for BAFTA to give him at least one major win in tandem with Pitt. But because he won't get any momentum from a guild win at WGA, if Parasite wins there (likely), it more or less clinches the top spot in Original Screenplay because it's a good way to recognize Bong himself if he's unlikely to beat Mendes in Director. The way I see the rest of the season playing out: 1917 wins DGA. Parasite wins BAFTA Best Film while 1917 takes BAFTA British Film and Director. Parasite wins WGA Original Screenplay, Gerwig Adapted. Those screenplay and director wins are repeated at the Oscars, with Parasite pipping it to the post in Best Picture. Very interesting. At this point I am definitely looking forward to the DGA (I know Mendes is favored, but still) and the BAFTAS to clear things up.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 20, 2020 20:42:42 GMT
1917 looks set to go into Oscar night with PGA+DGA+BAFTA+Globe, and that's basically the 4 most important precursors. Parasite is the spoiler (a la Moonlight), but 1917 is looking pretty good right now.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 20, 2020 20:44:09 GMT
Yeah, these are definitely the top 3 contenders. "Hollywood" is #3 for sure. And then it gets interesting.
"1917" is surging at the right time, it's doing great at the box office, it has tons of buzz, it overperformed with the nominations, it'll probably be winning the BAFTA too. And its PGA win is extremely important.
But damn, there's just so much support for "Parasite". It's hard to deny that fact. So although the no foreign language movie winning statistic is still an obstacle and I'm sure that for some voters picking it for International Film will be enough, I think it's got a great shot to make history. The Oscars will be fascinating to watch, I reckon.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 21:00:29 GMT
I really don't see the British bloc showing up for Parasite over 1917. Parasite received a measly 4 nominations at BAFTA, one of which was for foreign language film which at this point is basically filler. For contrast, Roma earned 7 last year, and it beat out The Favourite which hasn't been the juggernaut 1917 is shaping up to be.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 20, 2020 21:03:43 GMT
It's 1917's to lose, but Parasite is definitely the spoiler, and could potentially upset. If anything I see the best picture / director branch splitting off again, because of this with 1917 winning picture, and maybe Bong winning director. It all depends on how BATFA goes down, since 1917 will probably win big there.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 20, 2020 21:21:26 GMT
With 1917's PGA and Parasite's SAG Ensemble and Film Editing, it's between these 2 films.
SAG Ensemble and Film Editing should have been easy wins for OUATIH.
Also with the preferential balloting, OUATIH is a more polarizing film than 1917 and Parasite.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 20, 2020 22:13:14 GMT
BAFTA still could throw us a curveball, but with as compressed a season as this is, the race is pretty well set between Bong and Mendes. Tarantino lost a lot of crucial steam; he would need DGA to stay alive, and for BAFTA to give him at least one major win in tandem with Pitt. But because he won't get any momentum from a guild win at WGA, if Parasite wins there (likely), it more or less clinches the top spot in Original Screenplay because it's a good way to recognize Bong himself if he's unlikely to beat Mendes in Director. The way I see the rest of the season playing out: 1917 wins DGA. Parasite wins BAFTA Best Film while 1917 takes BAFTA British Film and Director. Parasite wins WGA Original Screenplay, Gerwig Adapted. Those screenplay and director wins are repeated at the Oscars, with Parasite pipping it to the post in Best Picture. Wishful thinking on your part.
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Post by stephen on Jan 20, 2020 22:14:49 GMT
BAFTA still could throw us a curveball, but with as compressed a season as this is, the race is pretty well set between Bong and Mendes. Tarantino lost a lot of crucial steam; he would need DGA to stay alive, and for BAFTA to give him at least one major win in tandem with Pitt. But because he won't get any momentum from a guild win at WGA, if Parasite wins there (likely), it more or less clinches the top spot in Original Screenplay because it's a good way to recognize Bong himself if he's unlikely to beat Mendes in Director. The way I see the rest of the season playing out: 1917 wins DGA. Parasite wins BAFTA Best Film while 1917 takes BAFTA British Film and Director. Parasite wins WGA Original Screenplay, Gerwig Adapted. Those screenplay and director wins are repeated at the Oscars, with Parasite pipping it to the post in Best Picture. Wishful thinking on your part. No wishful thinking here. If 1917 wins BP, I'm still happy.
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