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Post by brandonsquared on Jan 20, 2020 17:15:59 GMT
Or do you think they might give Tarantino Best Director and award something like 1917 the top prize?
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Post by Martin Stett on Jan 20, 2020 17:41:08 GMT
Hollywood isn't winning any guild awards. It's dead. This is between 1917 and Parasite now.
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Jan 20, 2020 17:41:59 GMT
I guess it still has a small chance, but losing PGA & SAG was a pretty fatal blow.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 20, 2020 18:31:41 GMT
I voted for it before SAG and PGA. Now I see 1917, not even Parasite, which is not an English spoken movie.
But I guess OUATIH still has some small chances.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 18:45:07 GMT
The writing's been on the wall for OUATIH's demise with the editing snub (for such a cut-heavy film), its editing loss to Jojo Rabbit at ACE, and its PGA loss. The SAG loss was the last nail in the coffin. I still think Tarantino has a shot at screenplay but it needed to show up at SAG where it was supposed to be the odds-on favorite and one would think if it had been the frontrunner it also would have taken the PGA. With the DGA likely down to Mendes and Bong, I don't see a path for OUATIH. It's done.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 20, 2020 22:44:29 GMT
Nope. Maybe screenplay still though.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 20, 2020 23:25:51 GMT
Or do you think they might give Tarantino Best Director and award something like 1917 the top prize? From watching the Academy awards since 1997, I would say "yes" to the title question. Here's what I mean. Over 90% of the time, a Best Picture gets at least two of the following awards: acting, directing, writing or editing. Lets provide some examples:
2018 - Green Book won BSA and Original Screenplay 2016 - Moonlight won BSA and Adapted Screenplay 2014 - Birdman won Director and Original Screenplay 2013 - 12 Years won BSA and Adapted Screenplay 2012 - Argo won Adapted Screenplay and Editing 2011 - The Artist won Director and Actor
The only counter examples we had this century has been 2000 Gladiator (won just Best Actor), 2015 Spotlight (just won Screenplay), and 2017 Shape of Water (just Director). Before that, we had Braveheart in 1995 (just director), and then after that, we have to go back to 1981 Chariots of Fire.
What Hollywood has in its back pocket is the fact that it's favored to win Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor. That's 2 big wins. For 1917, we're thinking director and no other major award. For Parasite, we have to believe it's going to win a combination of two of the following: director, screenplay, editing.
Another thing to consider that it has no acting nominations. 2008 and 2003 were the last time that happened, and those were years, the Best Picture winner won the PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble.
Regardless of what happens, it's going to be "yet another exception year".
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Post by quetee on Jan 21, 2020 17:09:49 GMT
Well, a slight chance and if it does pull off upset it will be only cause of people voted against 1917 and parasite.
Do ypu guys think IB could have beaten this group of nominees?
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Post by stephen on Jan 21, 2020 20:24:24 GMT
Well, a slight chance and if it does pull off upset it will be only cause of people voted against 1917 and parasite. Do ypu guys think IB could have beaten this group of nominees? Assuming it got the Editing nod, it's possible, but ...Hollywood is on track to match exactly what Basterds did: a supporting actor juggernaut sweep but probably nothing else. |
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 21, 2020 20:44:52 GMT
Well, a slight chance and if it does pull off upset it will be only cause of people voted against 1917 and parasite. Do ypu guys think IB could have beaten this group of nominees? Assuming it got the Editing nod, it's possible, but ...Hollywood is on track to match exactly what Basterds did: a supporting actor juggernaut sweep but probably nothing else. How about Production Design? |
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Post by stephen on Jan 21, 2020 20:49:11 GMT
Assuming it got the Editing nod, it's possible, but ...Hollywood is on track to match exactly what Basterds did: a supporting actor juggernaut sweep but probably nothing else. How about Production Design? True, I did forget about that (and according to the prediction thread, I am favoring it to win), but it's a very strong field and I can see any of those films winning here. But yeah, point taken. EDIT: Let's also remember that it was bullshit when Basterds lost here in 2009 to fucking Pandora. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 21, 2020 21:17:16 GMT
Well, a slight chance and if it does pull off upset it will be only cause of people voted against 1917 and parasite. Do ypu guys think IB could have beaten this group of nominees? It still might have been difficult against 1917 with a shortened season, but I think it would have because it had the "importance" that OUATIH seems to be lacking, and it also wasn't criticized for being as long and meandering as OUATIH has been. Sure with Tarantino there would have been some kind of discourse, but I think that the film could have overcame that and won BP because it would have hit editing/directing/acting. Thinking about SAG, maybe it would have been closer to winning then OUATIH? I don't know because obviously there was a lot of love for Parasite, but with Bombshell, The Irishman, and I guess Jojo Rabbit not seeming like they were much competition in the end here, I think IB might have been stronger because it won against Precious, An Education, Nine, and even the eventual BP winner The Hurt Locker. I know Nine's reception was very mixed, but that cast was still enough to get people to watch it and actually vote for it in SAG, and even though mostly Jeremy Renner was singled out for The Hurt Locker, it still did what 1917 didn't by getting nominated by SAG. I also feel like IB was more of an Ensemble which I think would have helped it whereas OUATIH has mostly two leading performance and a bunch of cameos. If it wins SAG, I think it could have beat 1917. If it loses to Parasite at SAG, then I think it's pretty much the same as this year's race where it would have been 1917 versus Parasite. |
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