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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 20, 2020 3:23:28 GMT
For those of you keeping count:
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood - Critics Choice, Globe 1917 - Globe, PGA Parasite - SAG
Parasite is the only one with directing, writing and editing nominations. Statistically, 79% of all Best Picture winners were nominated for directing, writing and editing.
You're free to flip-flop. I am including Joker and The Irishman here, because they too were nominated for directing, editing and screenplay.
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Post by futuretrunks on Jan 20, 2020 3:34:15 GMT
Parasite will win. Don't give a shit, though. Little Women is the best of the nominees.
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 20, 2020 3:36:18 GMT
I think Parasite will surprise. Didn't Spotlight also win just SAG?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 3:36:58 GMT
100% of BP winners are not foreign language films. I'm predicting 1917.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2020 3:38:20 GMT
100% of BP winners are not foreign language films. I'm predicting 1917. 100% of the SAG Ensemble winners weren't foreign born either |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 3:41:43 GMT
100% of BP winners are not foreign language films. I'm predicting 1917. 100% of the SAG Ensemble winners weren't foreign born either it's not just the acting branch voting you know. |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2020 3:43:07 GMT
100% of the SAG Ensemble winners weren't foreign born either it's not just the acting branch voting you know. Yes but the directors, screenwriters, editors and production designers as well |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 20, 2020 3:44:25 GMT
I don’t care about stats anymore. 1917 broke records at PGA and Parasite is breaking new grounds in the Oscar history. I’m predicting Parasite because it’s the best film of the year and because I want it to happen, and because it CAN win.
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2020 3:48:13 GMT
I don’t care about stats anymore. 1917 broke records at PGA and Parasite is breaking new grounds in the Oscar history. I’m predicting Parasite because it’s the best film of the year and because I want it to happen, and because it CAN win. This is what most detractors aren't considering. The strength of the movie. My audience was shocked over how fucking good it was |
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Post by doddgerhardt on Jan 20, 2020 3:48:46 GMT
What the hell? Why not? Going with Parasite. I think it could be greatly helped by a preferential ballot with a lot of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place votes. That is unless some vote it towards the bottom so it’s less likely to win. I don’t know voters vote with that kind of mentality though.
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 20, 2020 3:55:40 GMT
Parasite winning SAG proves there's very real passion for it in the industry, and it's a lot more widespread than we anticipated. That it managed to defy a stat that had never been broken and win the most populist guild with the largest pool of voters cannot be dismissed.
This win is also significant in that it demonstrates Parasite has the support of the acting branch, which was one of the major question marks holding it back. That it didn't land any acting nominations at the Oscars is probably attributable to both the shortened season (had voting taken place just a few days later, Song might've broken into Supporting Actor), as well as the fact that the cast members are unknown to the Academy. I imagine plenty of voters probably struggled with keeping track of which actor played which character.
Now it has directing, writing and editing nominations, plus an unexpected tech nod from the production designers, and a SAG Ensemble win to make up for the acting snubs. It seems to be well-liked by nearly everyone, which is crucial with a preferential ballot, and it's a genuine crowd pleaser in a way that few BP winners have been recently.
1917 and Parasite both make a lot of sense, and are gaining momentum at just the right time.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 20, 2020 3:55:55 GMT
Still going with 1917 but honestly really love both movies so will be more than happy with either.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 3:56:26 GMT
it's not just the acting branch voting you know. Yes but the directors, screenwriters, editors and production designers as well Roma lost last year with a DGA (and BAFTA BP win) in its pocket and Green Book waltzed to Oscar gold with a PGA win (which 1917 just nabbed) and a SAG nod (a movie doesn't need to win SAG ensemble to take BP). The Parasite frenzy needs to calm down until Bong wins the DGA but even then, a BP win is FAR from a sure thing. All the SAG win shows is that it's in second place, but I can't help but remember last season when Roma was the odd-on favorite with prognosticators only for Green Book to come up from behind and vindicate only the most pessimistic among them. I seriously doubt Parasite wins at BAFTA and the 2017 season proved with Three Billboards that a movie needs a lot more than the actor's branch in its corner. |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2020 3:59:47 GMT
Yes but the directors, screenwriters, editors and production designers as well Roma lost last year with a DGA (and BAFTA BP win) in its pocket and Green Book waltzed to Oscar gold with a PGA win (which 1917 just nabbed) and a SAG nod (a movie doesn't need to win SAG ensemble to take BP). The Parasite frenzy needs to calm down until Bong wins the DGA but even then, a BP win is FAR from a sure thing. All the SAG win shows is that it's in second place, but I can't help but remember last season when Roma was the odd-on favorite with prognosticators only for Green Book to come up from behind and vindicate only the most pessimistic among them. I seriously doubt Parasite wins at BAFTA and the 2017 season proved with Three Billboards that a movie needs a lot more than the actor's branch in its corner. Statistically the acting branch makes up most of the Academy membership. Watch out with it not winning BAFTA when it just won at the AACTAs aka Australian contingency of the AMPAS who does have a correlation with BAFTA. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 4:01:54 GMT
Now it has directing, writing and editing nominations, plus an unexpected tech nod from the production designers, and a SAG Ensemble win to make up for the acting snubs. Hate to point it out but Roma had all these things too plus two acting nominations. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 4:10:18 GMT
Roma lost last year with a DGA (and BAFTA BP win) in its pocket and Green Book waltzed to Oscar gold with a PGA win (which 1917 just nabbed) and a SAG nod (a movie doesn't need to win SAG ensemble to take BP). The Parasite frenzy needs to calm down until Bong wins the DGA but even then, a BP win is FAR from a sure thing. All the SAG win shows is that it's in second place, but I can't help but remember last season when Roma was the odd-on favorite with prognosticators only for Green Book to come up from behind and vindicate only the most pessimistic among them. I seriously doubt Parasite wins at BAFTA and the 2017 season proved with Three Billboards that a movie needs a lot more than the actor's branch in its corner. Statistically the acting branch makes up most of the Academy membership. I know all that, but then why does the Ensemble award line up so poorly with BP winners? Black Panther, Three Billboards, Hidden Figures, American Hustle, The Help... for the last 20 years SAG ensemble has predicted BP only half the time. I'm getting serious flashbacks to 2017. I was predicting Three Billboards precisely for the reason you're predicting Parasite now: actors make up the most members, and unlike Parasite, Three Billboards won three awards at SAG and then continued to win two acting awards at the Oscars. A lot of people were predicting it for those reasons and they turned out to be wrong. The actor's branch is not enough. If Parasite wins the DGA or WGA, then I'll get onboard. But predicting it on the basis of the SAG win over 1917 which just won BD and BP at the Globes and the PGA (and is likely to overperform with the British bloc at BAFTA) is much too premature. |
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 20, 2020 4:14:40 GMT
Yes but the directors, screenwriters, editors and production designers as well Roma lost last year with a DGA (and BAFTA BP win) in its pocket and Green Book waltzed to Oscar gold with a PGA win (which 1917 just nabbed) and a SAG nod (a movie doesn't need to win SAG ensemble to take BP). The Parasite frenzy needs to calm down until Bong wins the DGA but even then, a BP win is FAR from a sure thing. All the SAG win shows is that it's in second place, but I can't help but remember last season when Roma was the odd-on favorite with prognosticators only for Green Book to come up from behind and vindicate only the most pessimistic among them. I seriously doubt Parasite wins at BAFTA and the 2017 season proved with Three Billboards that a movie needs a lot more than the actor's branch in its corner. Fair, but then again Roma had two major factors working against it beyond the language barrier: anti-Netflix sentiment, and the fact that it was a slow arthouse drama that never really broke out with audiences at large. It's my favorite film of last year, but it's very sparse in terms of plot and very little happens in the first half, meaning a lot of people quit it halfway through. Critics and cinephiles were passionate about it, but it's not something that galvanizes casual viewers (which the Academy is jam-packed with). On the other hand, Parasite got a regular theatrical rollout (and a very successful one at that), and it's a fast-paced thriller chock-full of twists and turns. It sparks genuine enthusiasm from regular audiences in a way that Roma never could've by virtue of being so meditative and slow-burning. It's not just critics and film fans who are eating Parasite up; everyone who sees it is wowed by it. 1917 is very much still in the race by virtue of gaining momentum at just the right time and being in English (which very much is still critical, don't get me wrong), and it's very telling that it won the only guild prize that also uses a preferential ballot. But Parasite has a very realistic shot at the prize too, without many of the downsides that made BP an uphill battle for Roma. (Also, Green Book wasn't nominated for SAG Ensemble.) |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2020 4:14:54 GMT
Statistically the acting branch makes up most of the Academy membership. I know all that, but then why does the Ensemble award line up so poorly with BP winners? Black Panther, Three Billboards, Hidden Figures, American Hustle, The Help... SAG ensemble has not been the BP predictor in the 2010s the way it was in the 2000s. I'm getting serious flashbacks to 2017. I was predicting Three Billboards precisely for the reason you're predicting Parasite now: actors make up the most members, and unlike Parasite, Three Billboards won three awards at SAG and then continued to win two acting awards at the Oscars. A lot of people were predicting it for those reasons and they turned out to be wrong. The actor's branch is not enough. If Parasite wins the DGA or WGA, then I'll get onboard. But predicting it on the basis of the SAG win over 1917 which just won BD and BP at the Globes and the PGA (and is likely to overperform with the British bloc at BAFTA) is much too premature. The difference is that those movies weren't driven by passion and had different circumstances. Black Panther for starters wasn't nominated for BAFTA BP nor it won any awards for Picture before. It was merely a populist gist. Parasite isn't a black appealing crowdpleaser that gets only 2 above the line noms. It's not subject to controversy like Three Billboards was. And it's certainly a better film than Hustle and The Help. If something the basic group picking it over the obvious picks shows how much passion there is for it and can be sufficient for it to win. Parasite is no Black Panther or The Help. |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2020 4:16:29 GMT
Now it has directing, writing and editing nominations, plus an unexpected tech nod from the production designers, and a SAG Ensemble win to make up for the acting snubs. Hate to point it out but Roma had all these things too plus two acting nominations. Roma was snubbed for Film Editing. Try checking your data before you go onto argue. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 4:17:10 GMT
(Also, Green Book wasn't nominated for SAG Ensemble.) Shit I didn't realize that. Well that just further substantiates the argument that SAG ensemble doesn't necessarily mean much. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 20, 2020 4:19:49 GMT
I think at BAFTA, Parasite wins Best Picture and 1917 wins Best British Film. At the Oscars, Mendes wins Director while Bong takes Picture and Screenplay.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 4:20:06 GMT
Hate to point it out but Roma had all these things too plus two acting nominations. Roma was snubbed for Film Editing. Try checking your data before you go onto argue. I was referring to ACE. |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2020 4:21:20 GMT
Let's not forget that Roma went in to the ceremony with the one guild 1917 is expected to nab as well. I can name several examples of films getting each this decade and still losing out. Gravity, The Revenant, La La Land, The Big Short, Roma.
These lost to significant actor's movies such as 12 YAS, Spotlight, Moonlight, Green Book. All nominated for at least one SAG award
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 20, 2020 5:00:07 GMT
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Post by morton on Jan 20, 2020 5:01:55 GMT
100% of BP winners are not foreign language films. I'm predicting 1917. I’ll stick with 1917 for now too. Obviously this was another big win for Parasite, but SAG has only been around like 25 years. It took them a few years to get in sync with the Oscars, and even then for awhile they seemed to be playing catch up because they missed honoring so many legends by being such young awards show. This is the only time that a film in a foreign language has ever been won For Best Ensemble which maybe partly has to do with the fact that there haven’t really been many major contenders get that close. There was Roma, but I think part of it was that the film wasn’t as populist as Parasite. I loved it, but with SAG those expensive screeners maybe got people to play the movie but they probably didn’t watch very much of it, and the SAG nominating committee doesn’t blind vote like perhaps other award shows do or would have with Roma as one of the frontrunners. I guess there was also Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, but that didn’t even get nominated. Maybe too genre plus too foreign? I don’t remember the buzz for SAG Ensemble that year only that Crowe and Roberts were the big favorites for the Oscar. I think besides those two films that’s pretty much it. Another thing that while again it’s very impressive for Parasite, but SAG hasn’t been as accurate the last few years. Now if Bong can surprise at DGA, I would definitely switch to Parasite, but I think that 1917 is going to be too strong with PGA and DGA in a shortened season to lose. I know La La Land did, but the backlash had been building up for awhile and Trump had been elected that year. This year I just don’t think there’s just not enough time for significant backlash, and even if there was some kind of issue, voters didn’t care last year at all with Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody. Plus, as far as real life playing a part in voting, I think that might actually favor 1917 more because there’s the whole scare going on. It’s died down for now, but it could easily flare up again while phase two voting is going on. |
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