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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2020 2:07:56 GMT
This Saturday is the Producer's Guild awards, arguable the most important Guild of the year. The PGAs have matched the Oscar Best Picture winner 21 out of 30 times or 70%. Since moving to the preferential ballot system, they have lined up 80% of the time or 8 out of 10. The Big Short and La La Land failed to win the big prize. Driving Miss Daisy is the only PGA winner without a DGA nomination.
Who do you think will win the award? Here to me are the primary contenders:
1917 - The hot hand film. Won the Globe for Best Drama and Best Director. If it wins here, it'll be the first film to win the PGA without any SAG nominations.
The Irishman - Its gone cold at the Critics Choice and Globe awards, but at the end of the day, its been nominated for EVERYTHING relevant. If it wins here, it'll be the first time they have honored a gangster picture and a Scorsese film. Back in 2007, Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, not The Departed.
Jojo Rabbit - Perhaps this is just wishful thinking, but it did win at TIFF and wide support among Guild members.
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - The obvious front-runner here. It won the Globe and Critics Choice.
Parasite - It's a film without any real detractors. If it wins here, it'll be the first foreign language film to win the PGA.
My prediction is obviously Hollywood. I would prefer 1917 or Jojo here, but it's not about what I want to see win. Do you agree or have another film in mind? |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 15, 2020 2:24:32 GMT
I'm tempted to just stick to OUaTiH but it missed Editing and that's perhaps the most underestimated indicator of Best Picture winners. I'll be happy to be wrong, but I won't underestimate it until it fails.
1917 is my pick.
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2020 2:26:12 GMT
Watch it be Joker.
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Jan 15, 2020 2:28:03 GMT
I'm gonna say 1917, though if it does, I still think Parasite can believably beat it when Oscar comes around.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2020 2:33:39 GMT
I'm tempted to just stick to OUaTiH but it missed Editing and that's perhaps the most underestimated indicator of Best Picture winners. I'll be happy to be wrong, but I won't underestimate it until it fails. 1917 is my pick. 1917 didn't get nominated for film editing either. Perhaps you're arguing it's a forgivable miss due to the directorial style.
The films with editing nods are: Ford v. Ferrari, Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, and Parasite.
And yes, film editing is one of the most important indicators. Last year, I pointed this out and people called me names.
Only 10 times has the Best Picture winner won without an editing nomination. Once this century with Birdman and that was understandable.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2020 2:43:30 GMT
I am very hesitant for Joker to be honest. Look I love the film and all, and appreciate it raises the issues of gun violence, mental health, bullying and economic inequality, but I see too much as a divisive film. It might be too violent for some members. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 15, 2020 2:45:32 GMT
1917 didn't get nominated for film editing either. Perhaps you're arguing it's a forgivable miss due to the directorial style.
Yeah, obviously 1917 missing Editing doesn't mean anything. The last movie without the one-take thing that won Best Picture without Editing is apparently Ordinary People, from nearly 40 years ago. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2020 2:47:39 GMT
I am very hesitant for Joker to be honest. Look I love the film and all, and appreciate it raises the issues of gun violence, mental health, bullying and economic inequality, but I see too much as a divisive film. It might be too violent for some members. And Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood isn't? Joker's violence is much tamer in comparison. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2020 2:51:22 GMT
I am very hesitant for Joker to be honest. Look I love the film and all, and appreciate it raises the issues of gun violence, mental health, bullying and economic inequality, but I see too much as a divisive film. It might be too violent for some members. And Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood isn't? Joker's violence is much tamer in comparison. Was just about to say this. Us seeing every second of a man graphically smashing a woman's head to a pulp is much more violent than anything put in Joker. |
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 15, 2020 2:52:26 GMT
This feels like it's Hollywood vs. Joker.
A Joker win would be fun for the race (it still won't win the Oscar...) but sticking with Hollywood here.
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2020 2:53:36 GMT
And Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood isn't? Joker's violence is much tamer in comparison. Was just about to say this. Us seeing every second of a man graphically smashing a woman's head to a pulp is much more violent than anything put in Joker. To say nothing of a guy getting his genitals gnawed off by a dog and a woman being set on fire after having the shit beaten out of her. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2020 2:55:03 GMT
1917 didn't get nominated for film editing either. Perhaps you're arguing it's a forgivable miss due to the directorial style.
. The last movie without the one-take thing that won Best Picture without Editing is apparently Ordinary People, from nearly 40 years ago. That's what I thought you meant, and I agree with you. |
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 15, 2020 2:58:24 GMT
My pic may feel arbitrary, but I feel like the guild may feel like The Irishman was the most challenging production wise and it may win away the most votes...
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2020 2:59:00 GMT
I am very hesitant for Joker to be honest. Look I love the film and all, and appreciate it raises the issues of gun violence, mental health, bullying and economic inequality, but I see too much as a divisive film. It might be too violent for some members. And Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood isn't? Joker's violence is much tamer in comparison. The violence in Hollywood was designed as comedic. I agree that, the violence in Joker isn't that shocking. When I watched the movie in the theater and was shocked to see the people around me, covering their eyes and jumping out of their seat. My view is more sports reporter than anything else. Joker's violence is apparently seen on a different level than Hollywood's violence. Regardless, I really don't see Joker winning a preferential ballot, much like I didn't see Gerwig getting a Best Director nomination. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2020 2:59:13 GMT
Was just about to say this. Us seeing every second of a man graphically smashing a woman's head to a pulp is much more violent than anything put in Joker. To say nothing of a guy getting his genitals gnawed off by a dog and a woman being set on fire after having the shit beaten out of her. The violence being so over the top and brutal is part of why I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the thought of Hollywood winning Best Picture. I lean towards 1917 right now. And I think it'll win the Producer's Guild too. Though for me this Best Picture race is fun because I could see five potential winners - Hollywood, 1917, Joker, The Irishman, and even Parasite, despite it being "Foreign Language", all seem very possible to me at this stage. |
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 15, 2020 3:02:12 GMT
As I’ve been saying, it’s either Hollywood or Joker. Sticking with the former for now, but neither would surprise me. Wouldn’t count out 1917, either.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 15, 2020 3:09:20 GMT
Some interesting stats someone put together about the budget of PGA winners this decade versus their total gross. They really love that midsize budget hit, so maybe Parasite. Little Women and Knives Out’s budgets would be a little higher than what usually wins, but maybe not too far above it as both of their budgets are $40 million. Next Joker’s budget wasn’t too high, but it would still feel a bit of an anomaly here. Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, 1917, and OUATIH winning here would really be anomalies given their high budgets. Although I’m still predicting 1917 or OUATIH to win. Jojo Rabbit definitely would have been a favorite here had it managed to be a bigger hit, but I think only doing about $35 million so far will hurt its chances too much. Finally Marriage Story’s $18 million dollar budget would have hit part of the sweet spot here, but I don’t know if it would have made over a $100 million at the box office to hit the other part of the sweet spot. Manchester by the Sea only made about $80 million, although I do think Johansson and Driver are bigger stars than Affleck and Williams, but still not sure that would have been enough to get people to go see it. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2020 3:33:14 GMT
1917
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Post by mattfincher on Jan 15, 2020 3:47:35 GMT
I was fairly certain it would be Hollywood until that Editing snub, now I don't know if it's a harbinger of problems to come in the next few weeks or not. Guess it's a coin flip between 1917 and Hollywood, but it's worth noting that the consensus prediction for this award has been wrong every year since 2012 with the exception of La La Land in 2016, so I'm fully preparing for a surprise (AKA something other than 1917 or Hollywood).
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Post by quetee on Jan 15, 2020 4:31:56 GMT
It's between 1917, Once and Joker. I mean, let's get real here Joker should win cause it made 1 billion dollars off of 45 mil dollars. That is beyond impressive.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Jan 15, 2020 4:45:53 GMT
Probably 1917.
I was entertaining the idea of Joker and then remembered the DGA snub.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 15, 2020 6:37:17 GMT
I'm sticking with OUATIH...
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 15, 2020 6:41:41 GMT
I mean, let's get real here Joker should win cause it made 1 billion dollars off of 45 mil dollars. That is beyond impressive. So did Bohemian Rhapsody  |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 15, 2020 9:35:48 GMT
For some reason I feel like this is between 1917 and Joker. Yes, I know Joker missed DGA and I'm probably very wrong, but it still got Best Director, it overperformed both at BAFTA and at the Oscars, and it made a shitload of money.
1917 is the movie of the moment. It will make money, it was probably a challenging production, and it's a technical marvel.
I thought Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood had this, but I always listen to the editors' branch very closely. They rarely fail at telling us what doesn't win Best Picture, so I want to trust their tea.
Parasite seems like the perfect spoiler: crowdpleaser, impossible to dislike, it made money with a smaller budget, it will probably get a lot of #2 and #3 placements, but how many producers will vote for a Korean movie as the #1 film? Not many, I'm afraid.
The Irishman has the Scorsese-DeNiro signature on it, but it's also Netflix with a $150mil budget, and no box office record.
The others are also-rans.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2020 12:09:04 GMT
Probably 1917. I was entertaining the idea of Joker and then remembered the DGA snub. Good thinking. Driving Miss Daisy is the only film to win the PGA without a DGA nomination. |
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