Predict the Oscar winners!

Torn on Picture and Director. I still struggle to see the painful, violent, confessional dream of Hollywood as the type of film that wins Best Picture, but I also kinda feel like it's going to happen because I'm just not convinced with 1917 yet. I don't know. Will settle on one prediction as we get closer.

Best Picture - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or 1917
Best Director - Quentin Tarantino or Sam Mendes
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress - Scarlett Johansson
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Irishman
Best Original Screenplay - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Cinematography - 1917
Best Film Editing - The Irishman
Best Original Score - Joker
Best Original Song - Rocketman
Best Production Design - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design - Little Women
Best Sound Editing - 1917
Best Sound Mixing - 1917
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Joker
Best Visual Effects - The Irishman
Best Foreign Language Film - Parasite
Best Animated Feature - Missing Link

Edit - now that I've seen 1917, I definitely could see this winning Best Picture and Director. Seems much, much, much more like a Best Picture/Director winner than Hollywood/Tarantino. Still not confident enough to rule out the latter, so I'll leave my "tie" as is, but...

Best Picture - Joker
Best Director - Sam Mendes
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress - Renee Zellweger, but I'm actually swaying towards ScarJo, don't want to pull the trigger
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
Best Adapted Screenplay - Joker
Best Original Screenplay - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Cinematography - 1917
Best Film Editing - Joker
Best Original Score - Joker
Best Original Song - Rocketman
Best Production Design - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design - Little Women
Best Sound Editing - 1917
Best Sound Mixing - 1917
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Bombshell
Best Visual Effects - Avengers: Endgame
Best Foreign Language Film - Parasite
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 4
Best Documentary - For Sama

Best Picture - 1917 
Best Director - Sam Mendes 
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress - Scarlett Johansson (Alt. Renée Zellweger)
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
Best Adapted Screenplay - Little Women
Best Original Screenplay - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Cinematography - 1917
Best Film Editing - The Irishman
Best Original Score - Joker
Best Original Song - Harriet
Best Production Design - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design - Little Women
Best Sound Editing - Ford v. Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing - 1917
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Joker
Best Visual Effects - The Irishman
Best Foreign Language Film - Parasite
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 4

Yeah, we'll definitely need to be doing these again, I know mine will change after all the Guilds, maybe even in the below-the-line categories after unreliable BAFTAs, hell they'll probably even change for no apparent reason tomorrow. 

Best Picture: 1917. 
I just know that I'm gonna regret this pick a month from now. Every year seems to have a 1917. At least, the last five years have all seemed to follow the same narrative -- the January frontrunner that wins the Globe and BAFTA (sans Roma for the former, but it was ineligible anyway) that ultimately loses its frontrunner status before Oscar night or gets upset on Oscar night. This year that feels like 1917, which already has the Globe and is the no-brainer BAFTA favorite, and which like many of those films will be the primary technical behemoth and is probably the Best Director frontrunner, but could wind up losing out to something that's driven more by its acting and screenplay than its technical showmanship. That said, we've already seen the effects of the shortened awards season on the nominations, and I think we'll see the same effect on the wins. 1917 is peaking at just the right time, and it has everything working in its advantage to get it there. The Irishman may look more sure on-paper, judging by the statistics and all that, but the passion for it just seems to be gone, and the preferential ballot probably won't favor it. Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood seems to check off more "Best Picture" boxes than 1917, but I don't know, having seen the film today, it just feels like the Best Picture winner to me. At least, it feels like a '90s/2000s Best Picture winner ... maybe not a 2010s Best Picture winner ... but the Academy's been so inconsistent as of late, it's hard to pinpoint even what that is. Again, I've expressed my hesitation about picking the technical juggernaut film (never wins), the January favorite (never wins in recent years) with no acting support. But it's the "safe" pick, the one that everyone at least likes that'll benefit from the preferential ballot and, to me, right now, is a gut instinct. 
Alt. Pick: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood. (Which I'm sure I'll switch back to after it wins SAG and PGA or whatever.)

Best Director: Sam Mendes, 1917. 
There's a lot of competition here and I theoretically see a path for any of these five men to the win. But to reiterate my Best Picture argument, 1917 is peaking at just the right time for this season in particular, and everything's going in its favor, to the point that the award suddenly seems like Mendes's to lose. While he might not have the same reputation as some of his fellow nominees, his directorial work is very much an exercise in technical showmanship, the sort that has won this category year after year. It's so similar to so many recent winners here that it just kinda feels like a foregone conclusion. 
Alt. Pick: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite. 

Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story. 
The only acting category where I see an upset happening, and right now, I'm predicting it. I've already compared Zellweger to Close from last year, and as I've said before, I don't see a previous winner, one who doesn't have a "best of her generation" reputation (certainly not a Blanchett or a McDormand), win for a film that no one really saw. Like Pitt and Dern, it sort of seems like Zellweger might be stumbling into an Oscar by default, since there really isn't much of a campaign or any passion for any of her competitors right now. That said, I still just can't see her winning, and I think at SAG and/or BAFTA (both of which double-nominated ScarJo, as did AMPAS, though Marriage Story underperformed at both, so who knows) we'll start to see the tides shift. Again, this one's really just a gut instinct, a pick that I'm sure will change in a few weeks' time. 
Alt. Pick: Renée Zellweger, Judy. 

Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker. 
First of three acting guarantees. This is shaping up a lot like 2017, i.e. where all four acting awards are probably gonna be clinched long before Oscar night (again, hoping that's not the case for leading actress at least, but I'm sure I'm wrong about ScarJo), but also a big year for some of my favorite actors finally winning for performances I don't really care for. And while I like Pitt's performance well enough, it wouldn't even make my top five of his work (hell, it's not even my favorite thing he did this year), and Phoenix and Dern are two of my absolute favorites whose inevitable wins are for performances that just do nothing for me. Oh, well. I really don't expect any of those three to even lose any upcoming precursor, but I'm always open to a surprise! 
Alt. Pick: None. 

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story. 
See above.
Alt. Pick: None. 

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood. 
See above. 
Alt. Pick: None. 

Best Original Screenplay: Parasite. 
Another pick that might just be wishful thinking, but I do have a good feeling about this once. OUATIH is the obvious pick here and probably the safest one, and considering it still might be the Best Picture frontrunner, and films don't really win the top prize without a directing or screenplay win as well, Quentin should probably be considered the one to beat here. However, he is already a two-time winner in the category, and he's got some heavy competition this year that I'm not sure he'll be able to beat unless we see a clean sweep scenario for OUATIH (which, yeah, very possible). Parasite is huge, it has a lot of support here, it's universally considered a top five contender at this point, and I really don't see it going home with only the International win. I've been having an instinct about this win for awhile, simply because this is one category that seems to most often go a bit outside-the-box (in terms of straying away from obvious "bait," at least from time to time) and has a solid history of rewarding creativity. Now, obviously last year's winner isn't a good precedent for that, but this decade alone you have examples like Get Out and Her, both genre films, both BP nominees that didn't win elsewhere, both with very creative and remarkable screenplays, much like Parasite. It does have the foreign language hurtle, but this award has gone to non-English language films before. It might be an uphill battle, but with WGA (which it should have in the bag), I think it'll happen. 
Alt. Pick: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman. 
I don't really see Zaillian losing here and I don't really know where all the confidence in Little Women has come from (BFCA?), but this to me feels like an easy pick unless WGA or something proves otherwise. I can't fathom Irishman going home empty-handed and unfortunately this seems like its one really good bet right now. If Scorsese gets American Hustled, I riot. 
Alt. Pick: Little Women, Joker especially if it really is the BP winner. 

Best Cinematography: 1917. 
No one's stopping the Deak from getting his second. And while 1917 probably isn't even among my favorite of his, I sure won't complain. 
Alt. Pick: None. 

Best Film Editing: Ford v. Ferrari. 
It could go to just about any of them, but this feels right. Action and war films generally do well here, and they always love to give it to the flashiest editing and the most cuts, and Ford v. Ferrari seems to fulfill that standard. Thelma deserves to win her fourth here, I'd love to see it happen and I think she's certainly in contention, but with all of the complaints about the film's length, I think they'll opt for something more "sleek." It could also be Parasite, which I'd be more than happy with as well, but they generally go for the more technically-showy fare here. 
Alt. Pick: The Irishman. 

Best Original Score: 1917. 
I know Hildur is looking great at the moment, and despite being one of the big Joker detractors on here, I actually think it'd be kinda cool to see her win. That said, I really can't imagine them not giving into the overdue narrative for Newman this year, especially for a film whose technical sweep seems to be written in the stars. 
Alt. Pick: Joker.  

Best Original Song: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman. 
I don't feel good about this since Rocketman drastically underperformed, but then again, it's not like any of its competition did much better. (I mean, Randy Newman's not gonna win again, is he?) This is such a weird category this year anyway. But it's always safest to go with the name here, and the name is Elton. 
Alt. Pick: "Into the Unknown," Frozen II.

Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood. 
Fairly certain the strong majority of Academy members actually do remember what Los Angeles looked like in 1969. Oh man, it was just like old times!
Alt. Pick: 1917. 

Best Costume Design: Little Women. 
Almost hard to believe that Jacqueline Durran only has one win, but I like her chances for getting the second. Nothing else here was particularly showy anyway, but I guess they could always go all-in on OUATIH or Joker? But, yeah, always safest to go with the true costume drama of the group. 
Alt. Pick: Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood, Joker. 

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Bombshell. 
There's a recent trend in this category and the trend is obvious. This is Bombshell's to lose, and it's another where I don't really see another outcome unless there's a Joker clean sweep or something. 
Alt. Pick: Joker. 

Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame. 
I find it hard to believe they won't want to recognize the grand MCU finale here in a franchise achievement sort of way. But then again, never count out CGI animals that are so photorealistic they can't emote! 
Alt. Pick: The Lion King. 

Best Sound Mixing: Ford v. Ferrari. 
Probably going out on a limb on this one, but Film Editing and Sound Mixing have actually matched six of the last six times, which is ... an interesting trend, considering that's a better track record than for Sound Mixing and Sound Editing (four for six in the same time), maybe something of a coincidence, maybe not. Either way, the sound design of Ford v. Ferrari was a high point of praise, and while the same can obviously be said about 1917, it seems like the Academy might take the opportunity to give them a split. 
Alt. Pick: 1917. 

Best Sound Editing: 1917. 
Maybe the dumbest thing I'm doing here is predicting a split between Sound Mixing and Editing. The Academy has proved time and time again that they don't really know the difference between these two things, perhaps most infamously in this category last year, however, these splits have happened, and as I noted before, a few have happened recently! Again, it just makes too much sense to split the two awards between the two films; the big obstacle to that, I guess, will be if there's a consensus about which one goes to which film. Very likely, they both go to the same film ... but I'm taking something of the coward's way out and predicting the split for now. 
Alt. Pick: Ford v. Ferrari. 

Best International Feature Film: Parasite. 
Duh. 
Alt. Pick: None. 

Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 4. 
Who knows. The Globes suggested that passion might've died down for this. But it did get into Song, so maybe not the case for the Academy. I could theoretically see any of these winning it. For now, I'll go with the safe pick. 
Alt. Pick: Klaus. 

Best Documentary Feature: American Factory. 
Pretty safe to go with a streaming pick in this category, especially one with its level of acclaim. 
Alt. Pick: Honeyland, For Sama. 

The slightly disappointing and alarming thing here is that the campaign doesn't really seem to be focusing on that at all. They're all about pimping out their one-shot thing and Deakins in particular but what they should be doing is talking more about Newman, his overdueness and his achievement here. Like that 11-minute promo video they released which covered a lot of ground - that didn't have a word about the score. They need to start promoting Newman ASAP or he loses yet again. Conversely, the "Joker" team is always mentioning and praising Guðnadóttir thus making voters specifically remember her and her achievement.

I'll be praying for Newman to take this.

Ugh at the pic/dir split possibility.

UPDATED:

Best Picture: 1917
We're seeing a clear path for the end of the season: 1917 vs. Parasite. As of yet I'm not going to predict Parasite just yet but I absolutely do think that it's got a hell of a shot and I wouldn't be surprised to see it win. OUATIH seems to have lost its momentum so unless BAFTA resurrects it or something I'm not betting on it anymore.

Best Director: Sam Mendes, 1917

Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Women

Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Even if Parasite doesn't win BP this will be a great place for them to support it along with its locked International Film win. QT can absolutely win this too but I'm thinking they'll go with a 'newbie'.

Best Cinematography: 1917

Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari

Best Original Score: Joker

Best Original Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman

Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Costume Design: Little Women

Best Sound Editing: 1917

Best Sound Mixing: 1917

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell

Best Visual Effects: The Irishman
Still predicting it as the film's only win but I wonder if 1917 can somehow take this. I know it doesn't fit the mold of our usual VFX winner but that's because practical war movies haven't been able to get nominated before. With 1917 accomplishing this goal, I reckon it may get some support. Being a big tech frontrunner helps.

Best International Film: Parasite

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4

Best Animated Short: Hair Love

Best Documentary Feature: For Sama
I kinda missed that the Obamas were involved in American Factory so I think that one can definitely take this too.

Best Documentary Short Subject: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone

Best Live Action Short: Brotherhood

Changing my BP winner, so this is the update:


Best Picture - 1917
Best Director - Sam Mendes
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress - Renee Zellweger
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Irishman
Best Original Screenplay - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Cinematography - 1917
Best Film Editing - The Irishman
Best Original Score - Joker
Best Original Song - Rocketman
Best Production Design - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design - Little Women
Best Sound Editing - 1917
Best Sound Mixing - Ford v Ferrari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Joker
Best Visual Effects - Endgame
Best Foreign Language Film - Parasite
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 4
Best Documentary Feature - American Factory

Best Picture: 1917
Best Director: Sam Mendes
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Women
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Film Editing: The Irishman
Best Original Score: Joker
Best Original Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,”
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame
Best Foreign Language Film: Parasite
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Best Documentary Feature: For Sama