Lubezki
Based
the social distancing
Posts: 4,332 
Likes: 6,554
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Post by Lubezki on Jan 7, 2020 18:54:04 GMT
Taika is getting replaced by ___________ at the Oscars? The other 4 seem locked. Phillips or Gerwig. Leaning towards the former. |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 7, 2020 18:54:05 GMT
So this means OUATIH for Best Picture + Director?  Not sure about Taika at the Oscars. |
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The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 7, 2020 18:55:56 GMT
I REALLY want Marty to win this just so he can say THIS IS MY UNION on his acceptance speech
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 18:56:01 GMT
So this means OUATIH for Best Picture + Director? Not sure about Taika at the Oscars. That appears to be a case. It looks like either Once or 1917 as of right now. 1917 is going to do well at the box office so its chances just keeps getting better. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 18:56:28 GMT
I REALLY want Marty to win this just so he can say THIS IS MY UNION on his acceptance speech Not his year. Maybe with his next one. |
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The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 7, 2020 19:05:33 GMT
I really wonder. Maybe the TV directors and Commercials hated Joker anti media establishment message?
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erickeitel
Junior Member
The beauty of life is in small details, not in big events.
Posts: 464
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Post by erickeitel on Jan 7, 2020 19:09:32 GMT
So this means OUATIH for Best Picture + Director? Not sure about Taika at the Oscars. Picture, maybe. Mendes will win Director IMO. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 19:17:37 GMT
So this means OUATIH for Best Picture + Director? Not sure about Taika at the Oscars. Picture, maybe. Mendes will win Director IMO. That would be stupid of them to give Once picture and not give QT director. No matter how people feel about the guy, he's still an icon. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 7, 2020 19:28:40 GMT
I REALLY want Marty to win this just so he can say THIS IS MY UNION on his acceptance speech Lol, I guess it just depends how much money Netflix can throw at this race, just kidding, it's all on merit of course   |
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2020 19:30:14 GMT
Picture, maybe. Mendes will win Director IMO. That would be stupid of them to give Once picture and not give QT director. No matter how people feel about the guy, he's still an icon. That's not how they think of it, at least not nowadays. 1917 is a far showier directorial setpiece than Hollywood, and Mendes's film is a bigger tech contender (at least where wins are concerned). Tarantino benefits from a preferential ballot in Picture, but that's the only category where that sort of voting applies. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 7, 2020 19:38:45 GMT
That would be stupid of them to give Once picture and not give QT director. No matter how people feel about the guy, he's still an icon. That's not how they think of it, at least not nowadays. 1917 is a far showier directorial setpiece than Hollywood, and Mendes's film is a bigger tech contender (at least where wins are concerned). Tarantino benefits from a preferential ballot in Picture, but that's the only category where that sort of voting applies. Mostly agree but up until the very last scene in 1917 (which s a great scene), you could argue that Mendes doesn't display any directorial control or pacing or managing the arc - I mean that's part of it too. 1917 is really getting helped by the shorter timeline this year - the arguments you could make against it aren't going to have much time to stick and its release and these award schedules play into a late breaker like it is ..........a lot of QT's argument is if he doesn't win BD now, he'll never win it. Not sure that I by that but it's the way to structure his campaign........ |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 7, 2020 19:43:36 GMT
Always thought that Waititi could end up the 'surprise' nominee at the Oscars instead of Phillips and I think it may indeed end up happening.
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2020 19:46:40 GMT
That's not how they think of it, at least not nowadays. 1917 is a far showier directorial setpiece than Hollywood, and Mendes's film is a bigger tech contender (at least where wins are concerned). Tarantino benefits from a preferential ballot in Picture, but that's the only category where that sort of voting applies. Mostly agree but up until the very last scene in 1917 (which s a great scene), you could argue that Mendes doesn't display any directorial control or pacing or managing the arc - I mean that's part of it too.1917 is really getting helped by the shorter timeline this year - the arguments you could make against it aren't going to have much time to stick and its release and these award schedules play into a late breaker like it is ..........a lot of QT's argument is if he doesn't win BD now, he'll never win it. Not sure that I by that but it's the way to structure his campaign........ This is purely subjective (and frankly, I have no idea how you can come to that conclusion because the entire movie relies on its directorial control and pacing/arc, but c'est la vie). Tarantino could very well win -- his film has the most going for it in terms of precursors, general agreement, and a guaranteed above-the-line win to its name (Pitt), and usually Best Picture correlates to one acting win (usually male), and if they feel time is of the essence to reward a man who says he's going to retire after ten films (lol), then sure, they might go that route . . . but he does still have one more movie to go, according to him. They might just hold out for that. I think it's likelier he wins Picture while a more technically-impressive contender like Mendes or a critical favorite like Bong wins Director, because the directors' branch has been much more esoteric the last decade than the other branches. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2020 19:47:25 GMT
Always thought that Waititi could end up the 'surprise' nominee at the Oscars instead of Phillips and I think it may indeed end up happening. I think if Waititi does wangle a Director nod, we have to look at him as a strong contender for Adapted Screenplay. |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 7, 2020 19:48:45 GMT
Always thought that Waititi could end up the 'surprise' nominee at the Oscars instead of Phillips and I think it may indeed end up happening. I think if Waititi does wangle a Director nod, we have to look at him as a strong contender for Adapted Screenplay. I think we should do so even if he doesn't! |
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 20:01:14 GMT
I REALLY want Marty to win this just so he can say THIS IS MY UNION on his acceptance speech Lol, I guess it just depends how much money Netflix can throw at this race, just kidding, it's all on merit of course Marriage Story budget probably 20 mil The Irishman 160 mil And that doesn't include how much they spent on the campaign. And it appears they both will end up with same win count or Marriage will end up with more. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 7, 2020 20:19:29 GMT
Lol, I guess it just depends how much money Netflix can throw at this race, just kidding, it's all on merit of course Marriage Story budget probably 20 mil The Irishman 160 mil And that doesn't include how much they spent on the campaign. And it appears they both will end up with same win count or Marriage will end up with more. Noted.................. I've made a point to follow-up on this one on Feb 9th/10th if that isn't the case.  |
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 20:27:03 GMT
Marriage Story budget probably 20 mil The Irishman 160 mil And that doesn't include how much they spent on the campaign. And it appears they both will end up with same win count or Marriage will end up with more. Noted.................. I've made a point to follow-up on this one on Feb 9th/10th if that isn't the case. Yes, we shall see what the spend vs win cost ratio is. LMAO. Netflix is going to go broke throwing all this money chasing for Oscar glory. They need to allow it to happen organically. |
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The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 7, 2020 20:28:14 GMT
As long as Netflix yields don't go up I think they'll be fine even with their large debt
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 20:36:26 GMT
As long as Netflix yields don't go up I think they'll be fine even with their large debt They have approx. 150 mil accounts at approx. $12.99 per month. I think in the U.S, there's approx. 50 mil of the total. So they get a lot of monthly revenue. Their overall content is not the best. Once movies leave the theatres, where do they go?? To a cable station rather than Netflix. So they know they have to produce original content in order to be competitive. So they have to continue to throw money at established directors/actors in order to build up library. However, how many signups are they getting because of that? Even if you sign up, you can binge something and cancel it a month or two later. Sooner or later there will be a breaking point. |
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