Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 13, 2020 18:35:38 GMT
I don't think you can rely on "___ was snubbed for ___, it's out" because much like last year, all of the frontrunners have at least one significant snub that has historically been interpreted as a bad omen. OUATIH was the only one that didn't up until today, and then it missed what should've been a no brainer Editing nod. Parasite has consistently overperformed throughout the season but managed no acting nods; same with 1917, which got in for Screenplay and is surging at the right time (Globe wins, WGA nomination, huge box-office overperformance) but is still yet to be thrown a bone by actors. Joker missed DGA. The Irishman keeps showing up everywhere but hasn't won anything major yet, and doesn't look likely to.
At this point, it makes more sense to go by what's likelier to perform well on a preferential ballot than by stats pure and simple.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 13, 2020 18:49:02 GMT
I don't think you can rely on "___ was snubbed for ___, it's out" because much like last year, all of the frontrunners have at least one significant snub that has historically been interpreted as a bad omen. OUATIH was the only one that didn't up until today, and then it missed what should've been a no brainer Editing nod. Parasite has consistently overperformed throughout the season but managed no acting nods; same with 1917, which got in for Screenplay and is surging at the right time (Globe wins, WGA nomination, huge box-office overperformance) but is still yet to be thrown a bone by actors. Joker missed DGA. The Irishman keeps showing up everywhere but hasn't won anything major yet, and doesn't look likely to. At this point, it makes more sense to go by what's likelier to perform well on a preferential ballot than by stats pure and simple. Which is why I think Hollywood is winning. It, Joker and Parasite seem like the movies that would perform better with a preferential ballot
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2020 19:35:40 GMT
I don't think you can rely on "___ was snubbed for ___, it's out" because much like last year, all of the frontrunners have at least one significant snub that has historically been interpreted as a bad omen. OUATIH was the only one that didn't up until today, and then it missed what should've been a no brainer Editing nod. Parasite has consistently overperformed throughout the season but managed no acting nods; same with 1917, which got in for Screenplay and is surging at the right time (Globe wins, WGA nomination, huge box-office overperformance) but is still yet to be thrown a bone by actors. Joker missed DGA. The Irishman keeps showing up everywhere but hasn't won anything major yet, and doesn't look likely to. At this point, it makes more sense to go by what's likelier to perform well on a preferential ballot than by stats pure and simple. I think you are right. I really do think we can eliminate The Irishman and Im surprised at Parasite not scoring acting nods cause it looked like a stronger contender. Im clueless. I guess ill stick with Once. What do you think?
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 13, 2020 21:15:04 GMT
I don't think you can rely on "___ was snubbed for ___, it's out" because much like last year, all of the frontrunners have at least one significant snub that has historically been interpreted as a bad omen. OUATIH was the only one that didn't up until today, and then it missed what should've been a no brainer Editing nod. Parasite has consistently overperformed throughout the season but managed no acting nods; same with 1917, which got in for Screenplay and is surging at the right time (Globe wins, WGA nomination, huge box-office overperformance) but is still yet to be thrown a bone by actors. Joker missed DGA. The Irishman keeps showing up everywhere but hasn't won anything major yet, and doesn't look likely to. At this point, it makes more sense to go by what's likelier to perform well on a preferential ballot than by stats pure and simple. I think you are right. I really do think we can eliminate The Irishman and Im surprised at Parasite not scoring acting nods cause it looked like a stronger contender. Im clueless. I guess ill stick with Once. What do you think? I'm sticking with OUATIH too for the time being, but I no longer think it's the done deal that it seemed to be up until very recently. 1917 keeps overperforming (the Globe wins gave it a major visibility push, the WGA nom was a nice get to complete the guild trifecta with PGA and DGA also in tow, and the Screenplay nod today gave it more big 8 heft), while Parasite is a prime contender to benefit from the preferential ballot because it's a film that seemingly everybody loves and hardly anyone dislikes, with way more intense adoration that previous safe consensus picks like Spotlight and Green Book. Again, I do think the lack of support from SAG and the Academy's acting branch will hurt the former and the nationality barrier will definitely cost votes for the latter, but on paper they do seem like films that might get high rankings across the board, and their strong performances today bode well for their chances. It's still open.
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2020 21:25:36 GMT
We should fear JoJo....ugh!!!!
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 14, 2020 11:42:18 GMT
As far as I can see, Once is the favorite at the moment. It won Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Screenplay at the Globes and Critics Choice awards, two pivotal precursor awards ceremonies. The PGA, DGA, SAG and BAFTA nominated it for Best Picture. 1917 is its best challenger up to this point. Winning the Globe for Best Drama and Best Director created an undeniable spark. 1917 is now the cool movie, the hip movie of the moment.
Could we see a Crash, a King's Speech, a Birdman, or a Moonlight? Yes. All eyes should be on who wins the PGA on January 18th. They currently have an overall 70% accuracy with Best Picture. Since moving toward a preferential ballot system, PGAs have lined up 8 out of the 10 years.
The editing miss for Once shouldn't be overlooked. It's very rare to see a film winning Best Picture without an editing nod. Birdman was the only film to win without one in the 21st century and that was an understandable. The film was designed to feel like one continuous shot.
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Post by Martin Stett on Jan 14, 2020 12:44:35 GMT
Guys, ScreenRant's Youtube channel just hosted a poll and 68% of people say Joker is winning. Clearly, this is in the bag. 68% of voters can't be wrong.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 14, 2020 13:28:51 GMT
It's funny, I believe The Irishman is the only film to get nodded for every possible precursor not just at the Oscars but every guild major indicator and BAFTA, Globes, Eddie's for Godsakes across every major indicator group - Picture, Director, Acting, Writer, Editor, etc. and most people consider it completely dead with a chance to be shut out.
Now it's lost most of those but just as an indicator it's been nodded - and is I think the ONLY film to do it at all precursors every one except the M-O-U-S-E (Maddening Oscar Unimportant Season Expectation) awards.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 17, 2020 7:33:17 GMT
Maybe something to keep in mind; although, it could be another stat that finally breaks. Marriage Story right now
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 17, 2020 8:33:44 GMT
Surprised to see Hollywood so far ahead here.
I'd love if it won, as it is nearly my favourite film of the year, but I'm not seeing it myself. I'm thinking 1917 is winning, but I would love the notable majority here to be proven right.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 19, 2020 7:23:09 GMT
Me jinxing 1917 when I switch to that now in the poll. Now something else will probably win.
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Post by quetee on Jan 19, 2020 7:39:34 GMT
Once biggest fake out ever. Should have stuck with 1917.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 19, 2020 8:11:36 GMT
Oh, well, at least I can now enjoy the rest of the season without any expectations or disappointments.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 19, 2020 11:17:02 GMT
Yeah, that PGA win makes me switch to 1917. It's surging at just the right time, PGA is a great precursor, and on top of that a war movie has won BP at least once in every decade so 1917 will be the 2010s one
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 19, 2020 11:29:33 GMT
Well clearly 1917 is the one to beat now which is fine, I'm not the biggest fan but it is a good movie which is nothing to sneeze at......I'd be happier with a US film, in a year where 2 films were expressly ABOUT the US and its history instead of a fncking British War pic , but ........
Trivia people : When is the last time Columbia (OUATIH) won a Best Picture?.......It has to be ages....maybe we should be talking about the Columbia bias if OUATIH doesn't rebound.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 19, 2020 11:41:17 GMT
on top of that a war movie has won BP at least once in every decade so 1917 will be the 2010s one Why's that so important? So they have to make 1917 win this time just to represent war genre every decade, a tradition? Bullshit I'm not saying it'll win to keep up an Oscar tradition, you nutcase. I'm just posting a funny bit of silly statistics. Which that " " smiley at the end was clearly indicating for those in the back row.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 19, 2020 13:53:54 GMT
1917 which I've been predicting since the Globes.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 19, 2020 14:24:21 GMT
Just changed my vote for 1917, which I haven't yet seen but I'm pretty sure it will be a much better choice than OUATIH.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 19, 2020 19:26:31 GMT
I've been predicting OUATIH since August, but yeah I gotta go with 1917 now.
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Post by quetee on Jan 19, 2020 20:18:49 GMT
Maybe something to keep in mind; although, it could be another stat that finally breaks. Marriage Story right now Poland will be wrong here. 1917 will make more than $107 mil dom.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 19, 2020 20:22:41 GMT
Poland will be wrong here. 1917 will make more than $107 mil dom. Technically, Ford v Ferrari is going to finish north of $115M so 1917 will need to make close to $120M, but your point still stands.
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