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Post by quetee on Jan 6, 2020 4:20:09 GMT
Well, we lost two contenders this month: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and The Two Popes. So that leaves us with six contenders.
Flashback to December 2018: We had Roma winning best picture and Green Book was still missing as a contender.
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Jan 6, 2020 4:21:23 GMT
Hollywood is the frontrunner for now.
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Post by stephen on Jan 6, 2020 4:21:45 GMT
Parasite feels right. One can only wonder if it would've had the muscle to win out in Drama this year, but I think BAFTA will go for it and its SAG appearance shows support. There's passion here that I feel Roma, for all of its adulation, didn't quite muster.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 6, 2020 4:29:30 GMT
Hollywood is the frontrunner for now. Yes, so far it’s done everything just right. It hasn’t peaked too soon like The Irishman seems to have. It hasn’t put a big target on its back yet just winning enough to make it the front runner but not too much so that people resent it like Roma and La La Land. Also likely to win SAG and probably PGA.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 6, 2020 4:32:01 GMT
OUATIH feels right right now, it just needs SAG and PGA, which I think is a very likely combination, and it's in the bag. Theoretically if it just gets one of those there's still a path to the win if the other precursors prove to spread the wealth, as I'm suspecting they will. OUATIH has a very unique appeal, it is clearly popular in the industry like Joker but also gives off the sense of recognizing the work of a master like The Irishman, but the one reason I'm still hesitant is that I don't think it'll play as well on preferential ballots as things like Marriage Story or Parasite. Considering the nature of the film I find it hard to believe there isn't at least a somewhat significant portion of Academy voters who won't like it enough to put it on their top fives ... then again Tarantino is universally beloved in the industry even if he's not among cinephiles and critics these days, so honestly, that might not even be too much of an obstacle for it.
I don't think it's a done deal as many other people are treating it, but it's definitely the most sensible choice right now.
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Post by quetee on Jan 6, 2020 4:33:02 GMT
Hollywood is the frontrunner for now. Yes, so far it’s done everything just right. It hasn’t peaked too soon like The Irishman seems to have. It hasn’t put a big target on its back yet just winning enough to make it the front runner but not too much so that people resent it like Roma and La La Land. Also likely to win SAG and probably PGA. I switched over to it last month when I noticed, wait, the movie is consistently there. It hasn't been winning a lot of the critic awards but it was still showing up to the dance and sometimes that is all that matters. Last month, my ranking was Once, Joker, 1917, The Irishman and then Parasite. Even though 1917 won tonight, I'm going to maintain that ranking.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 6, 2020 4:36:07 GMT
Parasite feels right. One can only wonder if it would've had the muscle to win out in Drama this year, but I think BAFTA will go for it and its SAG appearance shows support. There's passion here that I feel Roma, for all of its adulation, didn't quite muster. Parasite feels like the "cool kid" movie everyone feels might have a real shot....only to lose out to something Hollywood feels more comfortable with like Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. There will still be a lot of old (er) voters reluctant to give a subtitled South Korean movie the biggest prize the Academy has to offer. It goes against their tastebuds.They will give it their Best Foreign Language Oscar (or whatever it's being called now) and give Best Picture to something like Hollywood or 1917.
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Post by quetee on Jan 6, 2020 4:41:35 GMT
OUATIH feels right right now, it just needs SAG and PGA, which I think is a very likely combination, and it's in the bag. Theoretically if it just gets one of those there's still a path to the win if the other precursors prove to spread the wealth, as I'm suspecting they will. OUATIH has a very unique appeal, it is clearly popular in the industry like Joker but also gives off the sense of recognizing the work of a master like The Irishman, but the one reason I'm still hesitant is that I don't think it'll play as well on preferential ballots as things like Marriage Story or Parasite. Considering the nature of the film I find it hard to believe there isn't at least a somewhat significant portion of Academy voters who won't like it enough to put it on their top fives ... then again Tarantino is universally beloved in the industry even if he's not among cinephiles and critics these days, so honestly, that might not even be too much of an obstacle for it. I don't think it's a done deal as many other people are treating it, but it's definitely the most sensible choice right now. Have you seen the critics top ten list compilation? I was surprised to see Once with the second most #1 rankings. Of course, Parasite is first.
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Post by quetee on Jan 6, 2020 4:43:00 GMT
Umm, you guys I really need an explanation as to why people are still floating around this Marriage Story has a shot at a win mumbo jumbo???
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 4:43:04 GMT
Parasite needed some big open category wins today to really establish itself as a strong contender in the eyes of the industry. Now, to the average undiscerning 65-year-old Academy member, it looks like just another acclaimed Foreign Language Film. It's only path now seems to be to win SAG and PGA, the latter of which should be tough given that it didn't gain any additional buzz today. But it's done so well so far that I still have it in the top 3.
1917 is a legitimate threat for the main prize now. If Mendes can win DGA and establish himself as the undeniable Director frontrunner, that can translate to the movie itself. BAFTA could very well go for 1917 after tonight. But it's also missed (or will miss) some crucial guilds, so it's hard to call it the frontrunner yet.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has the most going for it. Tarantino winning the Director Globe would have made it the comfortable frontrunner, but Screenplay is not a bad compromise.
I'll say: 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. Parasite 3. 1917 4. The Irishman
Can't really see anything else winning.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 6, 2020 4:45:52 GMT
Parasite needed some big open category wins today to really establish itself as a strong contender in the eyes of the industry. Now, to the average undiscerning 65-year-old Academy member, it looks like just another acclaimed Foreign Language Film. It's only path now seems to be to win SAG and PGA, the latter of which should be tough given that it didn't gain any additional buzz today. But it's done so well so far that I still have it in the top 3. 1917 is a legitimate threat for the main prize now. If Mendes can win DGA and establish himself as the undeniable Director frontrunner, that can translate to the movie itself. BAFTA could very well go for 1917 after tonight. But it's also missed (or will miss) some crucial guilds, so it's hard to call it the frontrunner yet. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has the most going for it. Tarantino winning the Director Globe would have made it the comfortable frontrunner, but Screenplay is not a bad compromise. I'll say: 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. Parasite 3. 1917 4. The Irishman Can't really see anything else winning. THIS. Parasite needed the Screenplay / Directing win for it to be a formidable threat and judging from the audience cheers, it does not seem like it aspires too much passion outside of the FLF praise As for 1917, I think it was mostly a Globes thing. Let's wait until what DGA says though
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 6, 2020 5:25:53 GMT
Have you seen the critics top ten list compilation? I was surprised to see Once with the second most #1 rankings. Of course, Parasite is first. That is a bit surprising to me ... but also not considering that, while not everyone loves it, the people who do love it really love it and tend to rank it as the best film of the year. But still, critics aren't voting for the Oscars so I don't see that as being really relevant.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 6, 2020 5:36:23 GMT
I hope it's not Parasite.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 6, 2020 6:04:44 GMT
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the frontrunner right now, but it's a weak one. Best Director is a completely open category and there's still no frontrunner there--I'm not buying the Mendes thing at all; this is the 2020s, not the 90s.
Joker can still win PGA... Parasite can still win DGA and BAFTA... basically anything could take SAG. Race is just beginning.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 6, 2020 9:25:37 GMT
OUATIH is the clear frontrunner now Parasite is 2nd 1917 would be (I think?) a historic winner with no acting, screenplay or editing nod (!) - I don't think that has ever happened - and I'm not sure it could ever happen. I'm saying it was a Globe fluke/aberration/BS - it's a good film but it's a stunt film. It just is......and I liked it better than OUATIH and I would vote for OUATIH over it on principle (My beloved) The Irishman got majorly knocked around at the Globes and a corrective action is somehow needed and now I don't see where it would come from. I'm now not even sure of its nomination total or TWO actors getting in for Support etc. Gutted but trying to keep things in perspective ......
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 6, 2020 14:00:07 GMT
With the Irishman leaving the Globes empty handed, I see OUATIH as the clear frontrunner.
Parasite could finally make it but I don't think it will. Tbh, I see no foreign language film wining BP after Roma losing last year.
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 17:47:01 GMT
Huge change.
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hilderic
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Post by hilderic on Jan 9, 2020 16:02:46 GMT
I'm sticking with 1917, though it's still an uphill struggle (I'm not reading too much into the Globes).
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 9, 2020 16:08:30 GMT
I’ve predicted OUATIH for the last several polls so no reason to change now.
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2020 3:17:50 GMT
Will we finally be right this year? Our track record sucks.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 13, 2020 3:27:55 GMT
Will we finally be right this year? Our track record sucks. We'll probably be wrong again. The frontrunner almost never wins lately.
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Jan 13, 2020 13:54:17 GMT
1917 looking stronger after the nominations with OUATIH missing editing
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 13, 2020 14:00:59 GMT
I know people are gonna be overstating OUATIH's editing miss, but still, I'm really tempted to change my pick to 1917. As hard as I find to believe that the BP winner will be the technically showy film with no acting support, it is peaking at just the right moment that momentum really seems to be swinging in its favor.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 13, 2020 14:05:42 GMT
People overlooking the editing branch going ew at Rasking yet not caring 1917 got 0 acting support hmm
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2020 15:38:45 GMT
1917 looking stronger after the nominations with OUATIH missing editing How is it stronger? Still no acting nods. I don't think we have figured out the true frontrunner.
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