The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Dec 25, 2019 21:27:44 GMT
As our surprise 'no precursor' nominee for Uncut Gems? Apparently people like DDL are calling him to congratulate him for the performance lol.
I always liked the dude and he's a nice person despite his track record.
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Dec 25, 2019 22:46:59 GMT
I'd definitely like it, if it happened.
But no, I wouldn't predict it to.
|
|
|
Post by dadsburgers on Dec 26, 2019 4:21:02 GMT
I think I predict it
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 26, 2019 23:37:02 GMT
Who do you leave out? Best Actor is stacked.
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Dec 27, 2019 0:06:07 GMT
I don't really see a path for him, unless he miraculously hits BAFTA or whatever. I mean, when was the last time an actor made it into this category with no precursor nominations in a non-Best Picture nominee? And that this is an unusually deep year won't help matters.
|
|
|
Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 28, 2019 18:43:24 GMT
I don't really see a path for him, unless he miraculously hits BAFTA or whatever. I mean, when was the last time an actor made it into this category with no precursor nominations in a non-Best Picture nominee? And that this is an unusually deep year won't help matters. Tommy Lee Jones, 12 years ago. Not unprecedented at all. And considering how WIDE OPEN that 5th slot is, and how many people are competing for it (5 if you include Sandler), it's actually MORE likely this year than others. I'm not necessarily predicting it, but I wouldn't be shocked. Honestly, as much as I love Murphy (and loved his movie), I think Sandler has a better shot than him.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 28, 2019 18:44:25 GMT
I hope he makes it.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 28, 2019 19:38:59 GMT
I don't really see a path for him, unless he miraculously hits BAFTA or whatever. I mean, when was the last time an actor made it into this category with no precursor nominations in a non-Best Picture nominee? And that this is an unusually deep year won't help matters. Tommy Lee Jones, 12 years ago. Not unprecedented at all. And considering how WIDE OPEN that 5th slot is, and how many people are competing for it (5 if you include Sandler), it's actually MORE likely this year than others. I'm not necessarily predicting it, but I wouldn't be shocked. Honestly, as much as I love Murphy (and loved his movie), I think Sandler has a better shot than him. But it will likely to go someone in a higher profile film like DeNiro, Bale, Murphy - who all have been previously nominated by AMPAS.
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 28, 2019 19:40:32 GMT
I don't see it because he's sure to miss at the BAFTAs (can't imagine the movie scoring any noms there), but yeah I'd love for it to happen and I wouldn't be shocked if it did.
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Dec 28, 2019 20:23:43 GMT
I don't really see a path for him, unless he miraculously hits BAFTA or whatever. I mean, when was the last time an actor made it into this category with no precursor nominations in a non-Best Picture nominee? And that this is an unusually deep year won't help matters. Tommy Lee Jones, 12 years ago. Not unprecedented at all. And considering how WIDE OPEN that 5th slot is, and how many people are competing for it (5 if you include Sandler), it's actually MORE likely this year than others. I'm not necessarily predicting it, but I wouldn't be shocked. Honestly, as much as I love Murphy (and loved his movie), I think Sandler has a better shot than him. I liked Sandler in Uncut Gems and would be fine with him getting a nomination; although I don't know who I would cut because I think most of the potential nominees are nomination worthy. However, I don't think the comparison to TLJ quite works. 2007 wasn't as strong as this year is, and two of the potential nominees were young guys, one who had already been nominated the year before, and Oscar definitely has slap the stud syndrome. Plus Into the Wild did not do very well with AMPAS compared to how it did at the Critics Choice or at SAG. Plus TLJ was a two time nominee and winner, and was also in the Best Picture winner that won a total of 4 above the line categories and was nominated for 8 nominations in all. Maybe Uncut Gems can get also get a Best Original Screenplay nomination, and maybe editing or sound, although I'm guessing that probably only BOS is doable. Still Sandler is fighting it out with Bale, Banderas, De Niro, DiCaprio, Egerton, Murphy, and Pryce for one of the last 3 spots, assuming Phoenix and Driver are safe, and Bale, De Niro, DiCaprio, and Pryce could all have much stronger films than Sandler. Banderas will likely get a lot of passion votes. Egerton will likely hit every precursor, and even if he misses BAFTA, he'll still hit more than Sandler did. Finally Murphy just got a lot of acclaim for returning to SNL. I don't think Murphy has much of a chance to get in, but I do think he'll receive some votes, and he and Sandler are sort of the same niche in that they're both SNL veterans who have made a lot of films that did poorly with critics but they made a lot of money with audiences, but they can also be great actors too. I think it helps Sandler that Uncut Gems is surging at the right time, he keeps being mentioned by regional awards, and I think might actually be A24's #1 now, but I think in the end he'll miss out just because there's so much other competition this year.
|
|
|
Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 29, 2019 0:00:46 GMT
Tommy Lee Jones, 12 years ago. Not unprecedented at all. And considering how WIDE OPEN that 5th slot is, and how many people are competing for it (5 if you include Sandler), it's actually MORE likely this year than others. I'm not necessarily predicting it, but I wouldn't be shocked. Honestly, as much as I love Murphy (and loved his movie), I think Sandler has a better shot than him. I liked Sandler in Uncut Gems and would be fine with him getting a nomination; although I don't know who I would cut because I think most of the potential nominees are nomination worthy. However, I don't think the comparison to TLJ quite works. 2007 wasn't as strong as this year is, and two of the potential nominees were young guys, one who had already been nominated the year before, and Oscar definitely has slap the stud syndrome. Plus Into the Wild did not do very well with AMPAS compared to how it did at the Critics Choice or at SAG. Plus TLJ was a two time nominee and winner, and was also in the Best Picture winner that won a total of 4 above the line categories and was nominated for 8 nominations in all. Maybe Uncut Gems can get also get a Best Original Screenplay nomination, and maybe editing or sound, although I'm guessing that probably only BOS is doable. Still Sandler is fighting it out with Bale, Banderas, De Niro, DiCaprio, Egerton, Murphy, and Pryce for one of the last 3 spots, assuming Phoenix and Driver are safe, and Bale, De Niro, DiCaprio, and Pryce could all have much stronger films than Sandler. Banderas will likely get a lot of passion votes. Egerton will likely hit every precursor, and even if he misses BAFTA, he'll still hit more than Sandler did. Finally Murphy just got a lot of acclaim for returning to SNL. I don't think Murphy has much of a chance to get in, but I do think he'll receive some votes, and he and Sandler are sort of the same niche in that they're both SNL veterans who have made a lot of films that did poorly with critics but they made a lot of money with audiences, but they can also be great actors too. I think it helps Sandler that Uncut Gems is surging at the right time, he keeps being mentioned by regional awards, and I think might actually be A24's #1 now, but I think in the end he'll miss out just because there's so much other competition this year. First of all, I STRONGLY disagree with the notion there are all these people fighting for 3 slots. There is only ONE FINAL SLOT for contenders to fight over. DiCaprio is 100% a LOCK, just like Driver and Phoenix. And Banderas has sooo many things going for him (and really only the SAG snub against him), he's not quite a lock but I'd say a pretty safe bet for the 4th slot. Also, Pryce is DEADER than fucking disco. NO CHANCE. So, that leaves only the 5th spot and five guys fighting for it: Bale, DeNiro, Egerton, Murphy, Sandler.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2019 4:51:43 GMT
I'm guessing it's going to be Phoenix (who will win), Driver, DiCaprio, Banderas, and De Niro.
I just can't wrap my head around the idea that they'll nominate Scorsese, Pacino, and Pesci but leave out De Niro, the heart of the film. Maybe they don't see it that way. I know it's very possible De Niro misses, but it'd be really weird feeling.
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Dec 30, 2019 21:22:17 GMT
In case that Uncut Gems gets surprise nominations I just want to be the one to claim bragging rights here. I know a potential dark horse when I see it.
|
|
chris3
Badass
I just ordered a slice of pumpkin pie...
Posts: 1,050
Likes: 1,045
|
Post by chris3 on Dec 30, 2019 21:29:26 GMT
I would be absolutely thrilled since he's more than deserving, but I doubt it. Critics adore Uncut Gems but mainstream audiences seem very polarized by it, with many viewers finding it just too aggressively unpleasant. Those types of extreme films and performances rarely align with the super bland tastes of the Academy, who will almost certainly go for showy schlock like Bale's caricature in Ford v Ferrari over Sandler's viscerally brilliant work here.
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Dec 30, 2019 21:30:10 GMT
That’s the dumbest bet I evah heard!
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Dec 30, 2019 21:33:30 GMT
I would be absolutely thrilled since he's more than deserving, but I doubt it. Critics adore Uncut Gems but mainstream audiences seem very polarized by it, with many viewers finding it just too aggressively unpleasant. Those types of extreme films and performances rarely align with the super bland tastes of the Academy, who will almost certainly go for showy schlock like Bale's caricature in Ford v Ferrari over Sandler's viscerally brilliant work here. Nope industry is loving it, they also nominated WOWS which was even more controversial and was a late breaker as well. >But Marty and Leo prestige! KEK that didn't stop pundits from reporting walkouts from the movie You people have to consider as well how much has the Academy membership has changed throughout the decade.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 30, 2019 21:35:59 GMT
I think the Nightcrawler comparisons I've been seeing are more than apt. I see it getting a late-breaking Original Screenplay nomination, but I think Sandler misses out and he is considered the big snub of the year.
I'd be happy if I'm wrong, though, and he gets in.
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Dec 30, 2019 21:41:50 GMT
That’s the dumbest bet I evah heard!
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Dec 30, 2019 21:42:47 GMT
For anyone predicting Sandler, who are your predicted 5?
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Dec 30, 2019 21:47:12 GMT
I think the Nightcrawler comparisons I've been seeing are more than apt. I see it getting a late-breaking Original Screenplay nomination, but I think Sandler misses out and he is considered the big snub of the year. I'd be happy if I'm wrong, though, and he gets in. That's what I initially predicted for it but the wom has been strong and the recency is what sets it apart from a fall release imo
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Dec 30, 2019 21:47:46 GMT
For anyone predicting Sandler, who are your predicted 5? Phoenix Driver Dicaprio DeNiro Sandler
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 30, 2019 21:47:47 GMT
In case that Uncut Gems gets surprise nominations I just want to be the one to claim bragging rights here. I know a potential dark horse when I see it. And if it doesn't?
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Dec 30, 2019 21:50:34 GMT
In case that Uncut Gems gets surprise nominations I just want to be the one to claim bragging rights here. I know a potential dark horse when I see it. And if it doesn't? I'll eat my Click Blu-Ray
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 30, 2019 22:13:29 GMT
For anyone predicting Sandler, who are your predicted 5? Phoenix Driver Dicaprio DeNiro Sandler i would be shocked if De Niro made it at this point. Someone huge has to get the snub and is either him or Leo or both.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 30, 2019 22:28:09 GMT
Phoenix Driver Dicaprio DeNiro Sandler i would be shocked if De Niro made it at this point. Someone huge has to get the snub and is either him or Leo or both. Yeah, I think that De Niro's gonna miss out while his film is otherwise well-represented, and while I am still predicting DiCaprio for the nod, I think the fact that he isn't really competing for the win and could easily lose the one prize that he's actually a strong contender for (the Comedy/Musical Globe) to someone who is campaigning his ass off makes him decidedly less safe than Driver or Phoenix. Stranger things have happened; DiCaprio just won and they may not feel the pressure to nominate him so much now that he's got a golden boy, and the last few spots have a lot of passion-inducing candidates (Sandler, Egerton, Banderas) that might edge out someone who might score a lot of #3-4 placements on ballots but not many #1 spots. Plus Bale has SAG and has his own strong base of support within the Academy, and Pryce is still kind of a question mark depending on how BAFTA goes. It's not outside the realm of possibility to think DiCaprio misses, especially as the lion's share of awards talk has gone to his co-star.
|
|