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Post by stephen on Dec 4, 2019 17:53:00 GMT
I'm not one to say I told you so, but... I told you so. Winning NYFCC =/= getting an Oscar nomination, though. Don't get me wrong, this was a big get for Lupita, but she still has a hell of a long road ahead of her and a lot more pitfalls in her path than most of the other contenders. Still, no clean sweep for Zellweger, it seems.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 4, 2019 17:53:24 GMT
A Renee sweep may be boring but it's the only way I'm gonna get fantasy points this season ... goddamn it...
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 4, 2019 17:53:40 GMT
3 of these 4 acting winners could easily miss at the big show although to me Pesci and probably Banderas are in but......certainly interesting picks not locks, they gave it some thought....
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 4, 2019 17:55:06 GMT
Welp...Lupita isn't as far left-field as Regina Hall, but it's still a left-field and totally unexpected choice, so this is becoming tradition in the NYFCC acting categories. They are becoming predictable in their unpredictability in at least one acting category.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 17:55:29 GMT
I'm not one to say I told you so, but... I told you so. Winning NYFCC =/= getting an Oscar nomination, though. Don't get me wrong, this was a big get for Lupita, but she still has a hell of a long road ahead of her and a lot more pitfalls in her path than most of the other contenders. Still, no clean sweep for Zellweger, it seems. Oh, of course not. Still, this was a huge get for her campaign. And I really think that her aggressive campaign and the film's box office are enough to sidestep her pitfalls. And yay! I love it when the wealth is spread.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 4, 2019 17:57:58 GMT
I think Nyong'o is hitting SAG, so she has a path for an Oscar nomination. Unlikely, but not implausible.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Dec 4, 2019 17:58:02 GMT
This is the group that gave Cameron Diaz best actress for There's Something About Mary. Although that was inspired, this is just nonsense.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Dec 4, 2019 17:59:09 GMT
Winning NYFCC =/= getting an Oscar nomination, though. Don't get me wrong, this was a big get for Lupita, but she still has a hell of a long road ahead of her and a lot more pitfalls in her path than most of the other contenders. Still, no clean sweep for Zellweger, it seems. Oh, of course not. Still, this was a huge get for her campaign. And I really think that her aggressive campaign and the film's box office are enough to sidestep her pitfalls. And yay! I love it when the wealth is spread. Yeah but with deserving winners. This is just weird.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Dec 4, 2019 18:01:13 GMT
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 4, 2019 18:02:46 GMT
I think Lupita is a very good bet to be nominated at the Oscars. Her movie made big bucks, so it's not obscure. She's a star, well liked in the industry and a previous Oscar winner. And she knows how to campaign and charm people. This win made her a legit threat, instead of a hopeful longshot.
Be foolish to bet against her. One of the other percieved Best Actress contenders just got a lot more vulnerable. I'd put her ahead of the likes of Ronan and Erivo at this point.
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Post by Lubezki on Dec 4, 2019 18:05:15 GMT
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 18:05:30 GMT
I think Nyong'o is hitting SAG, so she has a path for an Oscar nomination. Unlikely, but not implausible. Yeah, Bombshell went out before Thanksgiving, but it was still one of the last screeners to go out which could be a factor. Also Us was a big hit that came out early and screeners were sent out very early, so she's definitely possible at SAG. We can also see how strong Little Women and Ronan are since I've read a few people say that critics will like it more than regular movie goers because of how it's structured. Of course I was also predicting Erivo at SAG because Harriet did so well at the box office plus the role, but SAG can often be unpredictable going with early releases/screeners. I think Woodard doesn't have any chance at all now. She probably needed to win something this week just to stay afloat in the race since Clemency is so small and Neon has Parasite, but she's gone 0 for 3. Awkwafina did win Gotham, but then The Farewell was put into the smaller category at NBR despite A24's ties to that organization while Uncut Gems and Waves were bumped up.
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 18:07:47 GMT
They're really spreading the wealth this year at least so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see The Irishman win both Director and Picture, but then again I also wouldn't be surprised if they split it so like Parasite wins Director and The Irishman wins Picture.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Dec 4, 2019 18:11:14 GMT
They're really spreading the wealth this year at least so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see The Irishman win both Director and Picture, but then again I also wouldn't be surprised if they split it so like Parasite wins Director and The Irishman wins Picture. Yeah, I’m really liking the variety of winners. I could see Parasite winning director here.
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Post by Javi on Dec 4, 2019 18:11:29 GMT
They're really spreading the wealth this year at least so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see The Irishman win both Director and Picture, but then again I also wouldn't be surprised if they split it so like Parasite wins Director and The Irishman wins Picture. I'd love an Irishman win, though there's a bit of a foreign flavor this year it seems.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 4, 2019 18:14:10 GMT
Parasite won Foreign Language, so I think it's unlikely to take Picture.
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Post by stephen on Dec 4, 2019 18:16:03 GMT
Parasite won Foreign Language, so I think it's unlikely to take Picture. Don't the other awards bodies announce Foreign Language last, just to avoid this issue?
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 4, 2019 18:16:24 GMT
Verrrry surprised that Lopez didn't win with this group (or someone more "left-field" like Zhao or Cho), her performance seems like the exact thing that they normally go for. If she can't recover once the industry awards start up this could turn into a bit of a cakewalk for Dern. Same. Most people were predicting Lopez to win here because she had such great ink with the New York critics, and lately they've been going for more left-field choices in supporting actress and actress. The theory was sound. People just picked the wrong contender. Their left-field win in the actress categories turned out to be Lupita, not Lopez.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 4, 2019 18:17:41 GMT
Don't the other awards bodies announce Foreign Language last, just to avoid this issue? Not really sure, don't follow any close enough to know, but I've always felt like that's part of why Foreign Language movies have a hard time winning the top prize at American Awards. And that's also a major reason why Parasite will have a hard time winning at the Oscars this year.
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 18:19:38 GMT
Parasite won Foreign Language, so I think it's unlikely to take Picture. Don't the other awards bodies announce Foreign Language last, just to avoid this issue? I know LA does and someone on the chat I'm trying to follow that Boston does as well.
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Post by Lubezki on Dec 4, 2019 18:31:53 GMT
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Post by stephen on Dec 4, 2019 18:31:59 GMT
SAFDIES! I CALLED THAT SHIT!
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 18:33:01 GMT
Wow! They really spread the wealth this year. Even awarding Dern for both Marriage Story and Little Women, so both of those films which did well with NY critics could win something too.
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Post by Lubezki on Dec 4, 2019 18:33:13 GMT
And The Irishman wins Best Picture
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 18:34:13 GMT
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