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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 4, 2019 17:31:44 GMT
Dern is the automatic click this it looks like - she clearly has other precursors she's the lead for too - every other race you could make an argument for but she can be the no-brainer this year.......great actress + weak year = ..........
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 4, 2019 17:32:06 GMT
Portrait de la Jeune Fille en Feu has won best cinematography! And 5/5 for foreign language movies. *hurriedly changes Best Actor prediction to Banderas* Smart move
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 4, 2019 17:32:10 GMT
I watched Hustlers yesterday and I don't even understand why people ever considered Lopez a contender for the Oscar win. In a very weak year, perhaps. Not that this year is very strong, but there's still Dern.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Dec 4, 2019 17:32:53 GMT
Good for Banderas.
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Post by quetee on Dec 4, 2019 17:33:29 GMT
Portrait de la Jeune Fille en Feu has won best cinematography! And 5/5 for foreign language movies. *hurriedly changes Best Actor prediction to Banderas* Some of us been knew....
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Dec 4, 2019 17:34:34 GMT
This better not take all fucking night. I have a Merseyside Derby to watch.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 4, 2019 17:34:42 GMT
Banderas might actually take the big 3. NYFCC was the hardest obstacle for him and he won...
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 4, 2019 17:34:52 GMT
Verrrry surprised that Lopez didn't win with this group (or someone more "left-field" like Zhao or Cho), her performance seems like the exact thing that they normally go for. If she can't recover once the industry awards start up this could turn into a bit of a cakewalk for Dern. Same. Most people were predicting Lopez to win here because she had such great ink with the New York critics, and lately they've been going for more left-field choices in supporting actress and actress. For me the path for Lopez to be competitive for the Oscar win was that she had to be the big critics favorite, and hope that the televised awards were swayed by that rather than switching over to Dern because Dern had the stronger movie and veteran narrative. If Lopez doesn't dominate the critics' awards, then Dern probably does win in a cakewalk. Lopez can still win LA and/or NSFC, but as a likely lone nominee I think she needed to win the trifecta to have a chance at beating Dern. Even if she didn't win the trifecta, the worst case for her was exactly what happened today and that was Dern winning one of the big three over her. If Pugh or Shuzhen had won, then it wouldn't have mattered very much because Pugh and Shuzhen are unlikely to win any of the televised awards. Exactly how I see it as well ... Lopez needs the critics' support and if she doesn't recover with the other two of the big three that's probably the nail in the coffin for her. I'm probably just bummed because I've been predicting Lopez over Dern for most of the season ... guess that could bode well for Parasite then
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Dec 4, 2019 17:36:23 GMT
Wow,Banderas.I did not see that coming.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 4, 2019 17:36:38 GMT
I called Banderas in the NYFCC prediction thread It was super obvious (to me anyway) he was going to win a major critics prize at some point.
Wonder if this will translate to my call of Pain And Glory for their Best Picture pick.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 4, 2019 17:36:49 GMT
What has Driver won so far........Gotham and what else? How come no one sees him as in a little trouble.....just saying.....
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 17:36:51 GMT
I watched Hustlers yesterday and I don't even understand why people ever considered Lopez a contender for the Oscar win. In a very weak year, perhaps. Not that this year is very strong, but there's still Dern. I thought she was good, but I don't think she was Oscar worthy. Not that Dern is either, but I'm not sure why Dern's performance has been dismissed so much. She's good too imo. I know it should be about the performances, but since that never happens, if I were a voter, I admit I'd just default to Dern because I think both performances are about equal to each other, but Dern's been nominated twice before and in the film I liked more.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 17:39:29 GMT
What has Driver won so far........Gotham and what else? How come no one sees him as in a little trouble.....just saying..... He won Atlanta too, but nah he's not in trouble for the nomination at all. The win is another story, but I figured once Joker became such a huge success that Phoenix was just going to sweep all the televised awards. Banderas needed it more, and he could still end up missing the Oscar nomination in the end because of how strong the category is this year.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 4, 2019 17:39:49 GMT
Wow,Banderas.I did not see that coming. I'm more surprised that people are surprised. To me, Banderas is such an obvious critics pick. I always felt him and Driver were most likely to split the big ones.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 4, 2019 17:41:27 GMT
I honestly feel like Driver was never much a threat to Phoenix for the Oscar ... he needed a full critics' sweep to really have a shot and with such a deep field this year that was never gonna happen. Industry people seem to adore Joker and right now I can't see a scenario where Joaquin doesn't sweep the televised awards.
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Post by quetee on Dec 4, 2019 17:41:43 GMT
I called Banderas in the NYFCC prediction thread It was super obvious (to me anyway) he was going to win a major critics prize at some point. Wonder if this will translate to my call of Pain And Glory for their Best Picture pick. Antonio been obvious since cannes. I cant believe people were doubting his nod. De miro is not making it and leo better put in some work cause i see him missing too.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 4, 2019 17:42:16 GMT
What has Driver won so far........Gotham and what else? How come no one sees him as in a little trouble.....just saying..... He's probably the only Best Actor contender with nothing going against him. Regardless of how the top critics awards go, I think he was ranked the best performance of the year in a consensus poll of all critics, so I expect him to win a good number of regionals. I see no reason to doubt him for the nomination, at least.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 4, 2019 17:45:31 GMT
I watched Hustlers yesterday and I don't even understand why people ever considered Lopez a contender for the Oscar win. In a very weak year, perhaps. Not that this year is very strong, but there's still Dern. I thought she was good, but I don't think she was Oscar worthy. Not that Dern is either, but I'm not sure why Dern's performance has been dismissed so much. She's good too imo. I know it should be about the performances, but since that never happens, if I were a voter, I admit I'd just default to Dern because I think both performances are about equal to each other, but Dern's been nominated twice before and in the film I liked more. Laura Dern = Regina King, Allison Janney, Viola Davis, Patricia Arquette, Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo. Older actresses, very well respected in the industry who had never won.
If AMPAS snubbed Sylvester Stallone, who despite making really bad films, had contributed more to the industry. I can't see them giving it to Lopez.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 4, 2019 17:48:44 GMT
Nothing is guaranteed for Banderas. He's still one of 6 actors fighting for the last 3 spots. Lest people forget, Spall also won Cannes and NYFCC (and also NSFC) and he didn't even hit any of the precursors for Mr. Turner. It's easy to get swayed by what's happening in the moment, but none of these awards are as important as the televised precursors as far as Oscar nominations are concerned. And Banderas is likely to be in the weakest film (outside of Dolemite Is My Name) of all the other Best Actor contenders, and that has proved really significant in strong years such as this one.
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Post by stephen on Dec 4, 2019 17:49:16 GMT
Okay then.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 17:49:56 GMT
Maybe Ronan or Theron is snubbed since there's already been a few articles about how it's a shame that four Caucasian actresses are all predicted to be nominated for leading Actress when there's a lot of great leading WOC performances this year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 17:50:09 GMT
I'm not one to say I told you so, but... I told you so.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 4, 2019 17:51:49 GMT
awful choice
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 4, 2019 17:52:08 GMT
Nothing is guaranteed for Banderas. He's still one of 6 actors fighting for the last 3 spots. Lest people forget, Spall also won Cannes and NYFCC (and also NSFC) and he didn't even hit any of the precursors for Mr. Turner. It's easy to get swayed by what's happening in the moment, but none of these awards are as important as the televised precursors as far as Oscar nominations are concerned. And Banderas is likely to be in the weakest film (outside of Dolemite Is My Name) of all the other Best Actor contenders, and that has proved really significant in strong years such as this one. Last year, Ethan Hawke killed it with all the critics awards, but snubbed with the televised awards.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 4, 2019 17:52:30 GMT
Maybe Ronan or Theron is snubbed since there's already been a few articles about how it's a shame that four Caucasian actresses are all predicted to be nominated for leading Actress when there's a lot of great leading WOC performances this year. Love this win. Controversial, OTT, what have you... still a lot better than Zellweger again.
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