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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 9, 2019 9:13:08 GMT
Also Two Popes is Sleuth where two guys talk endlessly My cup of tea!!!
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 9, 2019 15:18:17 GMT
All right, so Baumbach missed Best Director at the Globes (to Todd Phillips, no less), and that could be a big hit for Marriage Story. The last time a movie won Best Picture without its director getting nominated at the Globes was Crash in 2005. Now, these kinds of stats get broken every year, so Marriage Story could still win, but the Globes have positioned this as an OUaTiH vs. The Irishman race on paper. And I think they'll each win their categories of Comedy/Musical and Drama too. Unless 1917 pulls off an upset.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 9, 2019 15:28:43 GMT
All right, so Baumbach missed Best Director at the Globes (to Todd Phillips, no less), and that could be a big hit for Marriage Story. The last time a movie won Best Picture without its director getting nominated at the Globes was Crash in 2005. Now, these kinds of stats get broken every year, so Marriage Story could still win, but the Globes have positioned this as an OUaTiH vs. The Irishman race on paper. And I think they'll each win their categories of Comedy/Musical and Drama too. Unless 1917 pulls off an upset. Yeah, I think a BP win is beginning to slip away from Marriage Story. The Baumbach miss is big, and the film has also had a weak critic award run so far. I think it needed a much stronger critic presence considering that it’s not what people would generally think of as BP winning material. Irishman and Hollywood will probably win the Globes.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 9, 2019 17:54:45 GMT
This is not surprising. Marriage Story does not seem like the film that necessarily ignites passion for award bodies to consider it as their winner or even Oscar voters to list it as their #1.
Ive been thinking Hollywood takes this since August and will remain to think so unless The Irishman wins DGA or PGA.
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2019 18:29:38 GMT
All right, so Baumbach missed Best Director at the Globes (to Todd Phillips, no less), and that could be a big hit for Marriage Story. The last time a movie won Best Picture without its director getting nominated at the Globes was Crash in 2005. Now, these kinds of stats get broken every year, so Marriage Story could still win, but the Globes have positioned this as an OUaTiH vs. The Irishman race on paper. And I think they'll each win their categories of Comedy/Musical and Drama too. Unless 1917 pulls off an upset. morton mentioned the same thing so that leaves of with the following: 1917 Parasite Once upon a time... Joker The Irishman If stat holds up then those are it. However, i think we can all agree that parasite wont win. That leaves us with four. This is where it gets tricky so are they really gonna give it to Netflix? Right now, im saying nope. Unless Netflix tells me how many people saw this movie. Nielsen doesn't count. That leaves us with 1917 is it too British? That didnt hurt king's speech but that wasnt about war so that could matter. So we are down to joker and once.hmmm so now they could pick first comic book or first QT movie. That is why im leaning towards once.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 9, 2019 18:37:29 GMT
morton mentioned the same thing so that leaves of with the following: 1917 Parasite Once upon a time... Joker The Irishman If stat holds up then those are it. However, i think we can all agree that parasite wont win. That leaves us with four. This is where it gets tricky so are they really gonna give it to Netflix? Right now, im saying nope. Unless Netflix tells me how many people saw this movie. Nielsen doesn't count. That leaves us with 1917 is it too British? That didnt hurt king's speech but that wasnt about war so that could matter. So we are down to joker and once.hmmm so now they could pick first comic book or first QT movie. That is why im leaning towards once. I don't think the Netflix thing is much of a factor. If Netflix keeps throwing money at auteurs like they're doing, it's only a matter of time before they win Best Picture. What does favor OUaTiH over The Irishman is that it has an uplifting/bittersweet ending as opposed to The Irishman's downer of an ending. I don't think Joker has a shot in hell of winning, and Parasite has enough going against it that I won't seriously entertain that possibility unless it wins something big. I'm still not ruling out Marriage Story, though.
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2019 18:50:32 GMT
morton mentioned the same thing so that leaves of with the following: 1917 Parasite Once upon a time... Joker The Irishman If stat holds up then those are it. However, i think we can all agree that parasite wont win. That leaves us with four. This is where it gets tricky so are they really gonna give it to Netflix? Right now, im saying nope. Unless Netflix tells me how many people saw this movie. Nielsen doesn't count. That leaves us with 1917 is it too British? That didnt hurt king's speech but that wasnt about war so that could matter. So we are down to joker and once.hmmm so now they could pick first comic book or first QT movie. That is why im leaning towards once. I don't think the Netflix thing is much of a factor. If Netflix keeps throwing money at auteurs like they're doing, it's only a matter of time before they win Best Picture. What does favor OUaTiH over The Irishman is that it has an uplifting/bittersweet ending as opposed to The Irishman's downer of an ending. I don't think Joker has a shot in hell of winning, and Parasite has enough going against it that I won't seriously entertain that possibility unless it wins something big. I'm still not ruling out Marriage Story, though. i didn't pick marriage story cause of the stat only. The stat could be wrong this year though. As for the Netflix thing well sooner or later it wont matter but like i said they will not give it to a movie that is perceived as being unpopular. If you cant create on oscar bump type thing for home viewing then why should you get best picture? Netflix downplays that and they shouldn't.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Dec 9, 2019 20:40:52 GMT
I agree that this is shaping up to be a race between The Irishman and OUATIH, which is what I've been thinking for a couple months now. As much as I would love an Irishman victory, I'm gonna stick with my OUATIH prediction.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 9, 2019 20:44:35 GMT
I think this is down to 3 films now. Predicting Irishman, Hollywood and Bong to win at the globes.
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Post by quetee on Dec 28, 2019 1:30:45 GMT
Few more days left...
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 28, 2019 1:53:18 GMT
Agreed. I am sticking with the TIFF winner, until I see the Globes, Critics Choice, and Guilds say something different.
For the past 11 years, TIFF has been 4/11 in predicting the Best Picture winner and 10/11 predicting Best Picture nominees. They came close with Three Billboards and La La Land.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 28, 2019 2:28:41 GMT
I was sort of thinking this was between The Irishman and OUaTiH until somebody on AW posted a stat about how the longest movie to win Best Picture this decade was 12YaS at 134 minutes and that the preferential ballot might have something to do with it. It sort of makes sense in a way that short and easy-to-watch-and-enjoy movies would do better on a preferential ballot, and that greatly benefits a movie like Parasite if it can beat the FLF stigma.
I now think maybe Parasite has a better chance than The Irishman. Wouldn't really surprise me if Parasite won SAG Ensemble, either. I'll change my mind if The Irishman wins PGA/DGA or BAFTA, but I think it's maybe between OUaTiH and Parasite.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 28, 2019 4:01:07 GMT
I was sort of thinking this was between The Irishman and OUaTiH until somebody on AW posted a stat about how the longest movie to win Best Picture this decade was 12YaS at 134 minutes and that the preferential ballot might have something to do with it. It sort of makes sense in a way that short and easy-to-watch-and-enjoy movies would do better on a preferential ballot, and that greatly benefits a movie like Parasite if it can beat the FLF stigma. I now think maybe Parasite has a better chance than The Irishman. Wouldn't really surprise me if Parasite won SAG Ensemble, either. I'll change my mind if The Irishman wins PGA/DGA or BAFTA, but I think it's maybe between OUaTiH and Parasite. Yep, this is where I'm at too.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 28, 2019 4:22:22 GMT
I was sort of thinking this was between The Irishman and OUaTiH until somebody on AW posted a stat about how the longest movie to win Best Picture this decade was 12YaS at 134 minutes and that the preferential ballot might have something to do with it. It sort of makes sense in a way that short and easy-to-watch-and-enjoy movies would do better on a preferential ballot, and that greatly benefits a movie like Parasite if it can beat the FLF stigma. I now think maybe Parasite has a better chance than The Irishman. Wouldn't really surprise me if Parasite won SAG Ensemble, either. I'll change my mind if The Irishman wins PGA/DGA or BAFTA, but I think it's maybe between OUaTiH and Parasite. I'm still sticking with OUATIH for now just because I don't know if we'll ever see a film win both FLF and Best Picture. Parasite will probably come the closest though if any film can do it, but I think there's enough older voters that will be against that happening.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 28, 2019 16:50:56 GMT
I think Parasite could make history, too. It ignites only positive passion: nobody actually hates it. Who, exactly, will be placing it last on their ballots? And this is crucial when it comes to the preferential ballot in particular.
I can think of no other contender benefiting from the preferential ballot in this way... The Irishman is long and there's the Netflix factor; Hollywood is loved by some, dismissed by others.
But first things first... imo Parasite needs a Directing or at least a Screenplay win at the Globes next Sunday to get started.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 30, 2019 11:58:27 GMT
If Parasite could snag a SAG Ensemble nomination out of the blue, it could easily win Best Picture too, which is why I'm predicting it. I don't care about likelihood, I want it to win.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 30, 2019 18:57:28 GMT
I wonder how many people who voted for Marriage Story early in the month are rethinking it now - less than a week away from the Globes and 6 away from the big show - still see passion for that?
The amount of tying ourselves in knots to avoid saying it's Irishman vs. OUATIH has been kind of funny - Jojo, the crowd pleaser that really wasn't or wasn't Green Book, 1917 a fine film but never, ever had a chance, MS, see above, Parasite which I loved and has passionate support but only if this becomes the South Korean Oscars come on.....all these films support boiled down to a gut feeling "I just don't think The Irishman will win!"
I didn't think Grinding Nemo would win either, so I do feel your pain, heck, I feel it every year, but I'm really curious to see how everything falls by the wayside in January's poll and it just boils down to the 2 films that would have been before either of them shot a scene.......
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