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Post by quetee on Dec 4, 2019 4:40:07 GMT
Flashback to November 2018:
A Star is Born won the poll and once again, Green Book was not a contender.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 4, 2019 4:52:37 GMT
Genuinely dunno. I've actually become less convinced on The Irishman's chances since seeing it, simply because I think it may actually be *too* good for the Academy's taste -- it'd be the best winner of the award since at least No Country for Old Men and I'm not an optimistic enough person to think they'll go for it, it just doesn't align with their taste, at least not their recent taste. I'm not at all sold on the Jojo Rabbit hype train, it may look like it has what it takes on-paper but I still feel like the equivalency people are making with Green Book is a false one, Jojo has not amounted even remotely that kind of popularity, it's still kinda niche no matter how crowd-pleasing it is to those who have actually seen it, and it's already seeming to run out of steam that it probably won't regain. It also doesn't help that I still don't see it being much of a contender in other categories -- plenty of nominations, yes, but I don't really see any wins, other than it being a possible spoiler for Adapted Screenplay, which, is maybe enough? 1917 doesn't feel right to me at all, it's the big tech player of the season but the big tech players don't ever win the top prize as well, and again it's not the type of thing that seems to align with the Academy's recent tastes. Marriage Story still feels too small and perhaps even downbeat (from what I've heard, haven't seen it yet) to win, but it's a movie about privileged artistic white characters experiencing a privileged white phenomenon that'll probably play with this rich white voting base like gangbusters, and that could make all the difference. I'm not sure, it still doesn't feel totally right to me ... I'm also not sure I can see anything besides those four as a legitimate contender for the win right now.
Whatever, I guess I'll stick with The Irishman but with a great deal of hesitation. It'll probably end up being Joker or some shit in the end anyway.
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 4, 2019 5:44:30 GMT
It's still anyone's game
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Dec 4, 2019 5:48:33 GMT
I'll go for Marriage Story right now, but I have no confidence in that pick at all.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 4, 2019 6:33:33 GMT
I'll go with the Irishman, at least until I see Marriage Story.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 4, 2019 6:50:42 GMT
I'd be tempted to put a bet on 1917...if it was about Americans. Since it's not, I think the best it can hope for to be another Dunkirk
Who knows yet, but I think Once Upon A Time In Hollywood should play well.
But it's just random guesswork at this point. Race needs to come into focus a bit more before we can make educated predictions.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 4, 2019 7:30:07 GMT
I've been all Irishman from the start and still am mostly because the other films except MS don't add up - Jojo I still don't see as a crowdpleaser it's not Green Book, 1917 is a British war pic that won't get acting or screenplay nods (or editing?) and that never happens, OUATIH I don't see the passion for a win now, Parasite would be the first foreign winner ever and I just can't see it beating an American film when you have options not to (it's threat is in Director imo).
Meanwhile MS is almost locked into some acting awards so I am saying it's Irishman by default if they spread the wealth and because it fits the narrative of great American film winners (Unforgiven, NCFOM) that were too fncking overwhelming to be ignored.
Preferential ballot though.......shudder.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 10:06:34 GMT
Genuinely dunno. I've actually become less convinced on The Irishman's chances since seeing it, simply because I think it may actually be *too* good for the Academy's taste -- it'd be the best winner of the award since at least No Country for Old Men and I'm not an optimistic enough person to think they'll go for it, it just doesn't align with their taste, at least not their recent taste. I'm not at all sold on the Jojo Rabbit hype train, it may look like it has what it takes on-paper but I still feel like the equivalency people are making with Green Book is a false one, Jojo has not amounted even remotely that kind of popularity, it's still kinda niche no matter how crowd-pleasing it is to those who have actually seen it, and it's already seeming to run out of steam that it probably won't regain. It also doesn't help that I still don't see it being much of a contender in other categories -- plenty of nominations, yes, but I don't really see any wins, other than it being a possible spoiler for Adapted Screenplay, which, is maybe enough? 1917 doesn't feel right to me at all, it's the big tech player of the season but the big tech players don't ever win the top prize as well, and again it's not the type of thing that seems to align with the Academy's recent tastes. Marriage Story still feels too small and perhaps even downbeat (from what I've heard, haven't seen it yet) to win, but it's a movie about privileged artistic white characters experiencing a privileged white phenomenon that'll probably play with this rich white voting base like gangbusters, and that could make all the difference. I'm not sure, it still doesn't feel totally right to me ... I'm also not sure I can see anything besides those four as a legitimate contender for the win right now. Whatever, I guess I'll stick with The Irishman but with a great deal of hesitation. It'll probably end up being Joker or some shit in the end anyway. This is pretty much where I'm at except I went with a different pick. Unfortunately I agree about The Irishman. It seems like when it did so well with critics that it should have been the easy go to choice, but after seeing it I don't think it aligns with how they've been voting lately. It also doesn't help that Pitt keeps winning and Pacino has missed the nomination at two places, and 1917 is more of the kind of film that they go for in director now, so the path becomes limited for it to win BP. Jojo Rabbit may end up doing very well with the industry, but it got the lowest number of Satellite nominations for a TIFF winner since 2006. Even more worrisome though is that it missed their Best Comedy/Musical category. In comparison, Green Book got 5 nominations with this group including Best Comedy/Musical and Best Director. Also as you mentioned, I don't know about any wins for it other than Adapted Screenplay which still could go a number of different ways. At least Green Book had Best Supporting Actor locked up pretty early on since TIFF basically while it's possible that Jojo Rabbit could get zero nominations. I am predicting Johansson for double nominations, but I still think it's more likely she just winds up with one nomination in leading. I thought 1917 might be more of a technical player, and while some really love it from the first screenings, I don't know that it will have enough support to go all the way. Maybe winning BAFTA will be enough for it to win BP, but in the past few years that's been more of a curse for films. Further I do agree that Marriage Story feels sort of small, but after seeing it I think it should do well on a preferential ballot. I have seen some complaints that only rich, specifically white people, can relate to it, which I didn't think was true, but could see that working against it. However, since it's about two people who work in the industry in various ways and basically all of the other characters except the young boy are connected to the industry in some way, I don't really know that voters will care about the complaints that it's not relatable to everyone. That might have been one factor working against La La Land, but it's a different year. Marriage Story is lucky because while there's a lot of hype around it, so far it's not another La La Land or Roma type of frontrunner. Luckily losing at Venice to Joker actually helped shield it, and then with The Irishman being released a short time later at the NYFF, that helped shield it too. Even if it does win at the Globes, it's likely not going to sweep like La La Land did either. I would say maybe it wins Picture, Screenplay, and Supporting Actress and maybe another acting award or directing award, but probably no more than 3 Globes, so only half of La La Land's record total. It's not going to set any records at the Oscars with number of nominations either. Like Savager though, I don't have a lot of confidence in it, but I can see it winning the Drama Globe, SAG Ensemble, and WGA Original, and I think that's enough for it to win Best Picture unless 1917 or something else wins both DGA and PGA.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 5, 2019 2:23:07 GMT
Tentatively switching to Marriage Story this month, for all the reasons that others have already laid out better than I could. It still has the same cons as before but they're not as numerous as the competition's, which bodes well for it in a race this wide open.
I went with Jojo Rabbit last month because it felt like the type of safe, agreeable choice that benefits from a preferential ballot and indeed it might still surge once the industry awards start rolling out, but so far it hasn't caught on like previous populist favorites had at a similar point in the race. Its box-office numbers are fine but not spectacular, and while I always expected it to be more of an industry player than a critical darling (meaning its lackluster performance with critics groups so far isn't exactly a shock), there doesn't seem to be much passion for it anywhere. The Globes could bring it back in a big way, but I'll wait and see for the time being.
Once more, I'd love to see The Irishman win and I'm glad it's performing so well with critics groups (as expected), but I still maintain that it might be too slow and bleak for many Academy members. If it weren't for the preferential ballot I'd readily pencil it in for the win, but as it is I imagine many will give up on it or pass it over entirely, which will hurt it in the end. Fingers crossed, though.
I stand by what I've said before about Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (too divisive) and Parasite (too subtitled). 1917 is likelier to be the year's tech marvel rather than the big winner, and Little Women did get even better reviews than I expected, but I'm not feeling it. Costume Design and maybe Adapted Screenplay feel like the better bet.
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2019 2:30:59 GMT
I still do not buy marriage story as a bp winner. The academy is not going to give bp to Netflix for a movie that is not trending. We will see how gp responds to it.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 5, 2019 4:00:01 GMT
Marriage Story > The Irishman > Once Upon a Time in Hollywood > 1917 > Parasite
Can't really see anything else winning, for now, so that's where I'm going to stop. With that said, I think it's close between the top 3. The Irishman is doing very well at the critics awards so far, and should technically be considered the frontrunner, but I don't think it's the kind of movie that you'd expect to win. It's 3:30 and I don't know if the pay-off at the end is what the Academy really takes to. It's not uplifting or joyous or sociopolitically relevant in the way recent winners tend to be. What has to carry it across the finish line is the Scorsese factor and its pedigree, which is definitely there, but it's still going to be a challenge.
Marriage Story hasn't exactly been setting awards season on fire, but I can't help but feel like it's the consensus pick. It should do well on a preferential ballot because it will be agreeable to most. And the silverlining to not winning too many big prizes yet is that it doesn't have the albatross of being the frontrunner around its neck yet, which perhaps it can't afford to have considering the kind of smaller movie it is. To win, I think the most plausible route is for it be in the discussions and sneak up at the end, kind of like Spotlight did. And it's now in the position to do just that.
And then there is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which is looking more and more like it has all the ingredients it needs to pull it off in the end. It has the pedigree, it has the stars, and it has the appealing subject matter. What is working against it is that it is a divisive contender, even if we are yet to see any signs that it is divisive within the industry. Perhaps remaining in The Irishman's shadow for a bit may even work out in its favor.
1917 has one route to win, and one route only. Sam Mendes needs to become a juggernaut and start sweeping the industry prizes for Best Director, and that should translate to the movie itself (kind of like Gravity, which ended up not managing it in the end). It could happen, but I'll need to see signs that it could happen before I put 1917 up there with the top 3 contenders.
Parasite will need to do something unprecedented to win Best Picture, and it hasn't started off very well. Being the best-reviewed movie of the year, it needed to dominate critics awards to gain some real momentum, and that hasn't happened yet. It had a hard enough path even if that happened, so it looks like it's losing its way to the win. It needs LAFCA and NSFC to go to bat for it to get back to where it was, but I'm not really feeling it right now.
I'll go with Marriage Story, but only just. I think the top 3 have almost even chances at the moment.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Dec 5, 2019 13:53:05 GMT
Jojo
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avnermoriarti
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Post by avnermoriarti on Dec 5, 2019 23:38:22 GMT
With an absence of feel-good / white guilt movie this season is more difficult, reminds me of a year like NCFOM when the most acclaimed movie gets it by default, so I’ll go with The Irishman, although ...in Hollywood almost get my vote. Also, by process of elimination, Marriage... even though is about industry people, doesn’t have a wider resonance. kind of exist in its own little bubble.
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Post by quetee on Dec 6, 2019 3:02:13 GMT
With an absence of feel-good / white guilt movie this season is more difficult, reminds me of a year like NCFOM when the most acclaimed movie gets it by default, so I’ll go with The Irishman, although ...in Hollywood almost get my vote. Also, by process of elimination, Marriage... even though is about industry people, doesn’t have a wider resonance. kind of exist in its own little bubble. i agree with you on marriage story.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 6, 2019 16:40:23 GMT
Sticking with Tarantino still. Really, really don’t get the Marriage Story predictions. I think it will have its far share of distractors in the industry. Outsiding of Acting and Screenplay, I’m not buying it as a contender for anything.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 6, 2019 22:25:00 GMT
Sticking with Tarantino still. Really, really don’t get the Marriage Story predictions. I think it will have its far share of distractors in the industry. Outsiding of Acting and Screenplay, I’m not buying it as a contender for anything. I’m not predicting it but why would it have “detractors”?
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 7, 2019 0:02:55 GMT
Sticking with Tarantino still. Really, really don’t get the Marriage Story predictions. I think it will have its far share of distractors in the industry. Outsiding of Acting and Screenplay, I’m not buying it as a contender for anything. I’m not predicting it but why would it have “detractors”? The subject matter. It’s a tough film for a lot of people to handle. May also cut too close to home for some.
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Post by quetee on Dec 8, 2019 18:37:46 GMT
Hmmmm at the Irishman pullback
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Post by quetee on Dec 8, 2019 20:08:27 GMT
I'm going with Once this month. It is too consistent.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 8, 2019 21:13:25 GMT
I'm starting to think 2019 is like 1972 - Parasite is the Cries and Whispers (critical foreign darling from acclaimed director, highbrow tastes loved it, many nods), The Irishman is The Godfather because well you know and OUATIH is Deliverance, a hangout movie where friends face an ominous evil threat. Also Two Popes is Sleuth where two guys talk endlessly, and Jojo Rabbit is Cabaret as a Nazi warning for our times .........except for the singing parts of Cabaret maybe that is more the weird musical passages of Marriage Story. Um.....ok maybe it doesn't hold up all the way through........
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 8, 2019 21:23:18 GMT
I'm starting to think 2019 is like 1972 - Parasite is the Cries and Whispers (critical foreign darling from acclaimed director, highbrow tastes loved it, many nods), The Irishman is The Godfather because well you know and OUATIH is Deliverance, a hangout movie where friends face an ominous evil threat. Also Two Popes is Sleuth where two guys talk endlessly, and Jojo Rabbit is Cabaret as a Nazi warning for our times .........except for the singing parts of Cabaret maybe that is more the weird musical passages of Marriage Story. Um.....ok maybe it doesn't hold up all the way through........ I'm still as lost as ever too. It depends on how well 1917 takes off. If it wins BD, then I think it wins BP or there's a split and one of the smaller movies either Jojo Rabbit or Marriage Story ends up winning BP. Just going by the critics awards, it's shaping up to be The Irishman vs. OUATIH, which I'm sure most would love especially after the mess of last years winner and nominations, but I don't even know who would get the edge. I would think they would split just so both camps would be happy, but who would you even go with? OUATIH is about the industry and made a lot of money, but Tarantino has already won screenplay twice and still has at least one film left in him, assuming he's telling the truth about stopping after ten films. The Irishman is something Scorsese has been trying to do for a long time, and Netflix must be happy with the amount of viewers given they actually released some numbers which I don't think they did for Roma. Even if they did release numbers for Roma, I can tell there's a big difference in actual viewers because of the amount of people that have watched The Irishman or at least talking about it versus those that did with Roma on social media at this point last year. On the other hand, there still might be a Netflix bias, and The Irishman doesn't feel like recent winners at all. Scorsese has also won BD and BP, and his Marvel comments might be a factor although I think they might actually help him more than hurt.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 8, 2019 21:28:22 GMT
I think for the first time I can actually see The Irishman winning... mostly because everything else is fading or feels too bland... and the Oscars give us roughly 1 truly great Best Picture winner per decade. They still haven't given it to us this decade so maybe it's time?
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Post by quetee on Dec 8, 2019 21:29:07 GMT
I'm starting to think 2019 is like 1972 - Parasite is the Cries and Whispers (critical foreign darling from acclaimed director, highbrow tastes loved it, many nods), The Irishman is The Godfather because well you know and OUATIH is Deliverance, a hangout movie where friends face an ominous evil threat. Also Two Popes is Sleuth where two guys talk endlessly, and Jojo Rabbit is Cabaret as a Nazi warning for our times .........except for the singing parts of Cabaret maybe that is more the weird musical passages of Marriage Story. Um.....ok maybe it doesn't hold up all the way through........ I'm still as lost as ever too. It depends on how well 1917 takes off. If it wins BD, then I think it wins BP or there's a split and one of the smaller movies either Jojo Rabbit or Marriage Story ends up winning BP. Just going by the critics awards, it's shaping up to be The Irishman vs. OUATIH, which I'm sure most would love especially after the mess of last years winner and nominations, but I don't even know who would get the edge. I would think they would split just so both camps would be happy, but who would you even go with? OUATIH is about the industry and made a lot of money, but Tarantino has already won screenplay twice and still has at least one film left in him, assuming he's telling the truth about stopping after ten films. The Irishman is something Scorsese has been trying to do for a long time, and Netflix must be happy with the amount of viewers given they actually released some numbers which I don't think they did for Roma. Even if they did release numbers for Roma, I can tell there's a big difference in actual viewers because of the amount of people that have watched The Irishman or at least talking about it versus those that did with Roma on social media at this point last year. On the other hand, there still might be a Netflix bias, and The Irishman doesn't feel like recent winners at all. Scorsese has also won BD and BP, and his Marvel comments might be a factor although I think they might actually help him more than hurt. I missed that they released the Irishman numbers. I just googled it. See, I told you they would do just that and that Roma's numbers were not released cause people didn't watch it. Now if they don't release Marriage Story, which I don't think they will then you can forget about that one winning bp.
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Post by quetee on Dec 8, 2019 21:31:52 GMT
Oooh, Nielsen released the numbers.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 8, 2019 21:49:06 GMT
Well, at least we can rule out the possibility of The Two Popes or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood winning, I guess.
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