The-Havok
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Doing pretty good so far
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 4, 2019 1:31:21 GMT
It doesn't have the strong reviews both Hollywood, Marriage Story and Irishman have. I'm not even sure if geriatrics know who Taika Waititi is unless they've heard about MCU directors and the subject matter isn't that baity.
It flopped today and hopefully it'll continue to do so so people stop taking film Twitter seriously
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Dec 4, 2019 16:46:00 GMT
I can see it being an also ran. Like maybe 3 nominations with no chance of winning.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 4, 2019 17:18:45 GMT
TIFF audience award. I’m not predicting it to win but think it’s top 5.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 4, 2019 17:19:19 GMT
I can see it being an also ran. Like maybe 3 nominations with no chance of winning. I think it probably gets more nominations than that because it's period and probably gets into costume and production design. I've also seen a lot of praise for its cinematography, even though it didn't stand out to me, so it could get in there too. You may be right on it having no chance of winning though because. I don't know. It was never going to do well with the big critics, but it will be interesting to see how much the regional groups like it especially in comparison to Green Book. Of course, the Globes nominations next week are another big test for it as well. I haven't heard any recent gossip about Jojo Rabbit with the Globes either way.There was also this article today from Variety. Golden Globe Nominations: 10 Things to Watch Out, From 'Little Women' to 'Cats'. It doesn't mention Jojo Rabbit at all, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. An acting win could happen, but at this point it doesn't seem any of the actors are campaigning for it so I'm beginning to wonder if maybe it ends up not getting any acting nominations. Johansson is somewhat out there, but she's doing very little right now compared to her Marriage Story costars Driver and Dern possibly because her last two big print interviews ended up being more fuel for social media outrage. Rockwell is out there, but now it's mostly for Richard Jewell. I guess Thomasin McKenzie gave up. It seems like she's been MIA since like October or early November. It feels like Adapted Screenplay is wide open, and I think it helps that Waititi is very popular right now. However, at the moment, I'm predicting Gerwig because it feels like a classic makeup win plus Little Women has been raved too and the narrative of her and her partner Baumbach possibly winning on the same night. The Irishman is also a threat if it is a big threat to win Best Picture as well. Not sure about its chances in the below the line categories because I only know for sure that 1917 will probably win or be the favorite for most of them. |
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The-Havok
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Doing pretty good so far
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 7, 2019 21:46:02 GMT
It just keeps sinking LOL
That said wait for Monday and Wednesday so we can finally dismiss Taiti Hackiki
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 7, 2019 22:34:22 GMT
It just keeps sinking LOL That said wait for Monday and Wednesday so we can finally dismiss Taiti Hackiki I’m not sure why you think critics awards have anything to do with this films chances. |
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The-Havok
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Doing pretty good so far
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 7, 2019 22:44:36 GMT
It just keeps sinking LOL That said wait for Monday and Wednesday so we can finally dismiss Taiti Hackiki I’m not sure why you think critics awards have anything to do with this films chances. I don't at all but it's fun to overreact regardless |
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chris3
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I just ordered a slice of pumpkin pie...
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Post by chris3 on Dec 7, 2019 22:54:09 GMT
I just have a gut feeling that it's going to fill the "whimsical indie" slot a la Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, The Grand Budapest Hotel as well as the "easy to swallow, safe, but Important message-movie" slot a la Green Book. The Academy also loved Life is Beautiful. I think its chances of winning anything have gone down considerably (it seems like it might get forgotten in the shuffle), but it just feels like the type of film the Academy will love way more than critics. Though I will concede I'm a terrible prognosticator (at this point last year I was confident BlacKkKlansman was going to win BP).
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 7, 2019 23:15:07 GMT
I just have a gut feeling that it's going to fill the "whimsical indie" slot a la Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, The Grand Budapest Hotel as well as the "easy to swallow, safe, but Important message-movie" slot a la Green Book. The Academy also loved Life is Beautiful. I think its chances of winning anything have gone down considerably (it seems like it might get forgotten in the shuffle), but it just feels like the type of film the Academy will love way more than critics. Though I will concede I'm a terrible prognosticator (at this point last year I was confident BlacKkKlansman was going to win BP). I'm a terrible prognosticator too, lol, but this seems reasonable to me. I think it's safe for the Best Picture nomination because there's not really a lot of "message" movies with a realistic chance of getting into best picture unlike last year where almost all of them could sort of be "message" movies if you looked hard enough I guess. Plus I'm not sure what else would fit the whimsical indie spot. Maybe Knives Out, but that doesn't really fit because it's more of a whodunnit even if it does have a message too. For wins though, I'm not really sure. I think it could still  back with the televised awards in some categories, but I think for acting, it seems like that's probably not going to happen since Rockwell might actually have a better chance of being nominated with Richard Jewell since that has some momentum at the present time, and even if he were nominated for Jojo Rabbit, he has zero chance to win. Then, on the Supporting Actress side, I thought maybe Johansson might have a small chance if she did get double nominations, but Dern is running away with Best Supporting Actress. On top of that, I think it's possible that both Johansson and McKenzie just end up missing in the end because we now have enough names to fill the category (Bates, Dern, Lopez, Pugh, Robbie, and Zhao). I think there's only been like 3 regionals that listed their nominees, but one neither showed up at (LAOFCS), and the other two Detroit and San Diego, McKenzie showed up at one while Johansson showed up at the other, so it might mean that there's no clear consensus there. |
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back with the televised awards in some categories, but I think for acting, it seems like that's probably not going to happen since Rockwell might actually have a better chance of being nominated with Richard Jewell since that has some momentum at the present time, and even if he were nominated for Jojo Rabbit, he has zero chance to win. Then, on the Supporting Actress side, I thought maybe Johansson might have a small chance if she did get double nominations, but Dern is running away with Best Supporting Actress. On top of that, I think it's possible that both Johansson and McKenzie just end up missing in the end because we now have enough names to fill the category (Bates, Dern, Lopez, Pugh, Robbie, and Zhao). I think there's only been like 3 regionals that listed their nominees, but one neither showed up at (LAOFCS), and the other two Detroit and San Diego, McKenzie showed up at one while Johansson showed up at the other, so it might mean that there's no clear consensus there. 