morton
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Post by morton on Dec 3, 2019 19:44:30 GMT
Are we predicting a Helen Mirren for The Queen-type sweep for Zellweger? I don't think NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC will go for Zellweger's performance at all especially when they can help out someone who could use the boost like Moss or Woodard and Judy wasn't that liked by them. She should do well with the regional awards though, and I think she'll likely sweep the televised awards. I was surprised and not surprised she won NBR. I thought it was her only chance at one of the "big" awards because the other three big groups definitely won't award her, but since Gaga won the category last year, I thought they'd go for a non musical performance this year. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 3, 2019 20:58:59 GMT
So let's call it: who's gonna be the NBR winner who gets jinxed completely and winds up getting snubbed at the last second despite being an assumed threat/frontrunner?
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 3, 2019 21:08:38 GMT
So let's call it: who's gonna be the NBR winner who gets jinxed completely and winds up getting snubbed at the last second despite being an assumed threat/frontrunner? I've been predicting Johansson for a while, so I guess I'll have to go with Zellweger? ETA: Oh, you mean snubbed for even a nomination? I think Zellweger is a lock for the nomination, so can't go with her. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 3, 2019 21:09:34 GMT
So let's call it: who's gonna be the NBR winner who gets jinxed completely and winds up getting snubbed at the last second despite being an assumed threat/frontrunner? yeah tell that to Green Book Tell that to NBR Director winner Bradley Cooper. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 3, 2019 21:10:18 GMT
So let's call it: who's gonna be the NBR winner who gets jinxed completely and winds up getting snubbed at the last second despite being an assumed threat/frontrunner? I've been predicting Johansson for a while, so I guess I'll have to go with Zellweger? ETA: Oh, you mean snubbed for even a nomination? I think Zellweger is a lock for the nomination, so can't go with her. I'm still thinking Tarantino misses in Director, so I'd probably go with him. Zellweger feels too safe because, well, who would she get snubbed in favor of? |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 3, 2019 21:12:32 GMT
I'm still thinking Tarantino misses in Director, so I'd probably go with him. Zellweger feels too safe because, well, who would she get snubbed in favor of? Tarantino and OUaTiH are showing up pretty much everywhere, though, and we know Hollywood likes movies about Hollywood. I think Sony will have to completely fuck it up for OUaTiH to not be a top 5 movie with Tarantino getting nominated. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 3, 2019 21:23:20 GMT
So let's call it: who's gonna be the NBR winner who gets jinxed completely and winds up getting snubbed at the last second despite being an assumed threat/frontrunner? I am not sure Sandler is ahead of like 6 guys to be honest .......and I expect him to win a lot more awards too but he really looks on paper, like Ethan Hawke 2019. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 3, 2019 21:34:33 GMT
I'm still thinking Tarantino misses in Director, so I'd probably go with him. Zellweger feels too safe because, well, who would she get snubbed in favor of? Tarantino and OUaTiH are showing up pretty much everywhere, though, and we know Hollywood likes movies about Hollywood. I think Sony will have to completely fuck it up for OUaTiH to not be a top 5 movie with Tarantino getting nominated. True, but I think a last-ditch show of passion voting will wind up undercutting a movie that gets a lot of solid #3-4 placements but fewer #1s. I think its early release will wind up working against it. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 3, 2019 21:37:12 GMT
True, but I think a last-ditch show of passion voting will wind up undercutting a movie that gets a lot of solid #3-4 placements but fewer #1s. I think its early release will wind up working against it. But are there 5 movies that will get more #1 placements than OUaTiH? Marriage Story, sure. The Irishman, probably. Parasite, perhaps. 1917, maybe. What else will get more #1 votes? I'm not seeing it. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 3, 2019 21:39:30 GMT
True, but I think a last-ditch show of passion voting will wind up undercutting a movie that gets a lot of solid #3-4 placements but fewer #1s. I think its early release will wind up working against it. But are there 5 movies that will get more #1 placements than OUaTiH? Marriage Story, sure. The Irishman, probably. Parasite, perhaps. 1917, maybe. What else will get more #1 votes? I'm not seeing it. I dunno, I think industry voters might rally behind the billion-dollar darling that is Joker, which is sure to get in at PGA (although I also thought NBR would go for it, which they did not). Jojo Rabbit's flashy enough with its direction that I think Waititi is a possibility, especially if he's a spoiler candidate for Adapted Screenplay against Zaillian. I'm still tentatively predicting Tarantino, but he feels easily the most vulnerable of the five for me. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 3, 2019 21:40:44 GMT
I dunno, I think industry voters might rally behind the billion-dollar darling that is Joker, which is sure to get in at PGA (although I also thought NBR would go for it, which they did not). Jojo Rabbit's flashy enough with its direction that I think Waititi is a possibility, especially if he's a spoiler candidate for Adapted Screenplay against Zaillian. I'm still tentatively predicting Tarantino, but he feels easily the most vulnerable of the five for me. Well, Tarantino is no lock, but I feel best about the consensus 5 in Director than in any other above-the-line category. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 3, 2019 21:45:24 GMT
So let's call it: who's gonna be the NBR winner who gets jinxed completely and winds up getting snubbed at the last second despite being an assumed threat/frontrunner? I think Bates and Sandler miss in the end, but I don't think they're the assumed frontrunners now. I do expect that if Sandler wins NYFCC tomorrow that a lot of pundits will try to make him happen, and people might start predicting him because of that, but I don't even think he's in the top 10. Although I guess if he wins NYFCC, I'll bump up to the top 10 again, but he'll still miss in the end imo. I can't see Pitt and Zellweger missing at all at this point. Although I think The Irishman probably won't win anything, I can't see it being snubbed altogether especially in an expanded lineup. I thought maybe Tarantino might be vulnerable, but I think it will just end up being the consensus 5 (Baumbach, Bong, Mendes, Scorsese, Tarantino) now. Jojo Rabbit's box office is starting to putter out once it went wide and even Parasite is starting to catch up with it, so I think the distance between Waititi and the consensus 5 has grown. Gerwig is possible, but the Director's Branch isn't very kind to female directors. It might be easy for them to leave Gerwig out because Little Women is a late release that might be overshadowed by 1917 since neither went to any festivals, and it's an adaptation that's been done several times. Plus Good God brought up a lot of great points about OUATIH. It keeps popping up in end of the year lists, and the industry loves movies about itself. |
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Post by mattfincher on Dec 3, 2019 21:45:47 GMT
Todd Phillips will never get in with the snobby AMPAS directors branch over Tarantino making a love letter to Hollywood where he rescues a starlet who was brutally murdered from her terrible fate. Come on, that's legitimately insane. If anyone upsets the consensus five apple cart, it'll probably be Gerwig if the female members of the branch rally behind her. But I think this might be the rare year where we get the same five nominees everywhere.
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 3, 2019 21:45:57 GMT
I think both Sandler and Bates will be snubbed when all's said and done.
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Post by mattfincher on Dec 3, 2019 21:50:43 GMT
I think both Sandler and Bates will be snubbed when all's said and done. I still can't fathom Sandler getting nominated for playing a coked up John Turturro in a movie that looks like it was filmed during a continuous panic attack, but if he wins NY critics tomorrow... I can't imagine the list of actors who were snubbed after winning both NBR and NY is very long. |
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Dec 3, 2019 22:01:49 GMT
Yeah, I really can't see the directors branch snubbing QT in favor of Taika Waititi or Todd Phillips. It's just not in their nature.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 3, 2019 22:21:38 GMT
Todd Phillips will never get in with the snobby AMPAS directors branch over Tarantino making a love letter to Hollywood where he rescues a starlet who was brutally murdered from her terrible fate. Come on, that's legitimately insane. If anyone upsets the consensus five apple cart, it'll probably be Gerwig if the female members of the branch rally behind her. But I think this might be the rare year where we get the same five nominees everywhere. In recent years, the AMPAS directing branch have started nominating and awarding former slapstick comedy merchants like Peter Farrelly and Adam McKay after making one "serious" movie . Nominating Philips is completely on brand for them these days. Methinks you are overestimating their snob factor. Philips has just as good a shot as breaking in with the "serious director" crowd as Farrelly and Mckay, what with his Venice win and Joker making a billion dollars. If anything, Philips is maybe being wildly underestimated. Sometimes we are all guilty of overthinking these scenarios. I feel like both QT and Philips can get in. |
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AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Dec 3, 2019 23:51:25 GMT
Sandler getting Best Actor is certainly interesting. The person they award Best Actor to usually ends up nominated at the Oscars. In this decade, the only exceptions were Oscar Isaac (who was tied with Michael Keaton who was nominated) and Tom Hanks for The Post.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 4, 2019 0:52:58 GMT
Todd Phillips will never get in with the snobby AMPAS directors branch over Tarantino making a love letter to Hollywood where he rescues a starlet who was brutally murdered from her terrible fate. Come on, that's legitimately insane. If anyone upsets the consensus five apple cart, it'll probably be Gerwig if the female members of the branch rally behind her. But I think this might be the rare year where we get the same five nominees everywhere. Because he hasn't been nominated before. I think Joker will do better with the industry regardless. And people should remember that critics don't vote |
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 4, 2019 0:53:31 GMT
Todd Phillips will never get in with the snobby AMPAS directors branch over Tarantino making a love letter to Hollywood where he rescues a starlet who was brutally murdered from her terrible fate. Come on, that's legitimately insane. If anyone upsets the consensus five apple cart, it'll probably be Gerwig if the female members of the branch rally behind her. But I think this might be the rare year where we get the same five nominees everywhere. In recent years, the AMPAS directing branch have started nominating and awarding former slapstick comedy merchants like Peter Farrelly and Adam McKay after making one "serious" movie . Nominating Philips is completely on brand for them these days. Methinks you are overestimating their snob factor. Philips has just as good a shot as breaking in with the "serious director" crowd as Farrelly and Mckay, what with his Venice win and Joker making a billion dollars. If anything, Philips is maybe being wildly underestimated. Sometimes we are all guilty of overthinking these scenarios. I feel like both QT and Philips can get in. If Phillips gets a DGA nod, it's over for Joker detractors |
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 4, 2019 1:34:23 GMT
yeah tell that to Green Book Tell that to NBR Director winner Bradley Cooper. ... or NBR winner Amy Adams, or NBR winner Emma Thompson |
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