Are we underestimating Just Mercy’s Oscar chances?

I was predicting Foxx, but I keep shuffling everyone except Pitt and the two The Irishman actors around in Supporting Actor. 

I do think he has a great chance to make it at SAG and Critics Choice because they'll probably have like 10 slots this year in this category, so they can try to say that they correctly predicted who was going to be nominated at the Oscars. Beyond that though, I'm not sure, and I don't know if SAG and BFCA noms will be enough. 

I can't imagine it getting any other nominations. Maybe in a weaker year, it could pull a Selma and get one nomination plus Best Picture, but that was just a weird year because screeners went out too late for it and Best Actor had several snubs. Plus that was the first time there were only 8 Best Picture nominations since they expanded the category, and the first time that a director was nominated without their film also being nominated for Best Picture since the expansion. 

This year I feel like there's a solid 7 (1917, Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite), and then 6 other possible films (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Bombshell, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, The Two Popes) fighting for the last one or two spots. I don't think that Just Mercy could leap over all of those.