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Post by JangoB on Nov 26, 2019 13:01:59 GMT
Please vote for five films you think are gonna get nominated!
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Post by JangoB on Nov 26, 2019 13:03:34 GMT
1. The Irishman 2. Jojo Rabbit 3. The Two Popes 4. Little Women 5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Feel very confident about the top 4. The fifth one is a bit more dubious but I don't really see Joker here tbh...Maybe Hustlers?
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 26, 2019 13:05:19 GMT
Yeah, same 5.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 26, 2019 13:17:54 GMT
Same 5 for me.
Terribly weak category this year except Steve Zaillian is the biggest Irishman lock for a win next to Scorsese and Schoonmaker - this screenplay is daringly conceived and complex in its breadth - intricate and multilevel.
It's the most important Scorsese script since Taxi Driver in terms of what he actually followed........it's an all-time level script to me.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 26, 2019 13:18:55 GMT
The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Little Women A Beautiful Day The Two Popes
Maybe Joker can make it to the top 5 instead of the Popes, although I don't really know why it is considered adapted screenplay tbh.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 26, 2019 13:23:32 GMT
The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Little Women A Beautiful Day The Two Popes Maybe Joker can make it to the top 5 instead of the Popes, although I don't really know why it is considered adapted screenplay tbh. You mean you don't know why Joker is considered adapted?
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Nov 26, 2019 14:39:14 GMT
Same.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 26, 2019 14:53:24 GMT
The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Little Women A Beautiful Day The Two Popes Maybe Joker can make it to the top 5 instead of the Popes, although I don't really know why it is considered adapted screenplay tbh. You mean you don't know why Joker is considered adapted? Yes. It's considered adapted only because the main character is a comic book one? The plot and the script are original and not taken from amy book/movie/graphic novel. It's not that I disagree, I just find it a bit odd, is all.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 26, 2019 15:07:14 GMT
You mean you don't know why Joker is considered adapted? Yes. It's considered adapted only because the main character is a comic book one? The plot and the script are original and not taken from amy book/movie/graphic novel. It's not that I disagree, I just find it a bit odd, is all. Yeah, it's because it's based on a pre-existing comic book character and a pre-existing comic book world.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 26, 2019 15:23:25 GMT
Yes. It's considered adapted only because the main character is a comic book one? The plot and the script are original and not taken from amy book/movie/graphic novel. It's not that I disagree, I just find it a bit odd, is all. Yeah, it's because it's based on a pre-existing comic book character and a pre-existing comic book world. Ok then. Tbh it's the first I thought about the script considerations for comic book movies.
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Post by Mattsby on Dec 1, 2019 21:39:38 GMT
I can't imagine any of these beating The Irishman..... Some trivia: if Zaillian wins, he'll be only the third person alive to have 2 Adapted wins, after Coppola and Payne.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 1, 2019 21:48:40 GMT
1. The Irishman 2. The Two Popes 3. Little Women 4. Jojo Rabbit 5. ummmm I think A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
1-4 look really solid (and there's no way Irishman doesn't win) but the 5th spot is definitely a bit up in the air. I could definitely see Hustlers get some momentum in this category. If it has any chance to score in any category other than supporting actress, it's here, and it's already picked up a couple nods for its screenplay. In what looks like pretty weak field right now (after those top 4 spots) I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it surge into that top 5.
Joker and Richard Jewell could turn out to be threats too, especially if Hauser picks up steam in best actor and if Joker remains a strong BP contender throughout the season (which I'm not predicting but we'll see) and consistently snags nods for more than just Phoenix. I'm not predicting either rn but anything is possible.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 1, 2019 21:54:17 GMT
Maybe Joker can make it to the top 5 instead of the Popes, although I don't really know why it is considered adapted screenplay tbh. If anything is at risk in that top 5, it's not Two Popes. 1) the Academy loves McCarten and 2) the screenplay has been singled out in basically all of the positive reviews. If anything it's probably in the top 3 and I could conceivably see it beat The Irishman (not likely but hey it's possible) if the voters feel like spreading the love in the event that Marty wins BD and BP.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Dec 1, 2019 22:11:52 GMT
As much as I want The Irishman to win here, part of me thinks that Jojo Rabbit could still get it based on the novelty of the premise and I can see Waititi potentially winning the Globe. I'll want to kill a kitten if that happens, but I don't think The Irishman is locked.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 1, 2019 22:19:11 GMT
I feel a little like Matt in the Best Picture thread a few weeks ago. I think The Irishman could win here, but I'm not predicting it to at the moment unless it also wins Best Picture. It's possible, but I actually think it's no higher than third at the moment. Little Women - Right now I'm predicting this to win this category. Gerwig has a lot going for her like another film with excellent reviews, makeup win for losing for Lady Bird, and the fact that her partner is favored to win Best Original Screenplay so that they both win screenplay categories on the same night. Jojo Rabbit - It's still a threat to win BP right now, and Waititi is very popular right now. I don't think he gets close to winning Best Director, might not even be nominated there, but if Mendes wins Director and JJR wins BP, Adapted Screenplay seems like the path that JJR will follow along with maybe winning Supporting Actress. The Irishman - If Scorsese hadn't won before, and the cinematography, production design, and costume design were "flashy" and seemed like good bets to win, I think it could have been a return to those sweeps that use to happen, but I don't really see it winning anything except maybe for Supporting Actor. It's my second favorite film of the year, and it will definitely have its supporters, but at the same time, I think a lot of voters might be indifferent enough not to want to watch it or really dislike it. The Two Popes - If screenplay were open just to writers, I might rank it lower, but Green Book won Original Screenplay last year despite losing WGA. Most people seem to like the film, and that might be enough if they don't like The Irishman and think that Gerwig's structuring of Little Women was too confusing. Joker - I was predicting A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood for the final spot, but I think it's in a very tough position to be nominated for Best Picture now. The late releases (1917, Bombshell, Little Women, and even Richard Jewell) all could conceivably still make it into BP, and Ford v Ferrari and Knives Out which were both praised by critics are doing better at the box office right now so those are threats especially as FvF should do well in below the line categories while ABDITN has a very low ceiling for maximum nominations. Even Hanks is no longer safe, imo. Joker could be another Nightcrawler/Gone Girl type of situation where it does extremely well with other awards, but then almost gets shut out at the Oscars save for Phoenix, but since it made so much money and continues to make so much money, I don't think that will happen to it.
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