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Post by stephen on Nov 24, 2019 18:43:17 GMT
As usual at this point of the year I really have no clue. The Irishman seems like the safest bet, but in the last years that pattern would usually mean that it wouldn't go on to win the big prize. I just don't see what makes it "the safest bet." Its length and subject matter isn't going to have the mass appeal some Scorsese fans think it will. Also, epics have been pretty well out of fashion with the Academy for a while and I don't really think this is going to be the one to bring that genre back. I also don't really see it playing as well on the preferential ballot, versus crowdpleasers like Jojo Rabbit or smaller, more intimate, shorter movies like Marriage Story. It's a strong player for Director, but that hasn't correlated to BP much this decade.
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 25, 2019 10:37:11 GMT
As usual at this point of the year I really have no clue. The Irishman seems like the safest bet, but in the last years that pattern would usually mean that it wouldn't go on to win the big prize. I just don't see what makes it "the safest bet." Its length and subject matter isn't going to have the mass appeal some Scorsese fans think it will. Also, epics have been pretty well out of fashion with the Academy for a while and I don't really think this is going to be the one to bring that genre back. I also don't really see it playing as well on the preferential ballot, versus crowdpleasers like Jojo Rabbit or smaller, more intimate, shorter movies like Marriage Story. It's a strong player for Director, but that hasn't correlated to BP much this decade. That was a bad wording by me. Of course there isn't anything like an even approximately safe bet at this point in time. Right now we don't know much and don't had any awards yet. For "Irishman" we know at least, that many people like it. And usually that means (at least over the last 20 years) that also many voters will like it. And then Scorsese is somebody who is also well-liked by his peers. But yeah "Marriage Story" and "Jojo Rabbit" are probably as likely as well right now.
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Post by bob-coppola on Nov 25, 2019 11:41:05 GMT
I love a fractured race, so this year might be really exciting for me as all OUATIH, The Irishman, 1917, Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story (5 movies!) make compelling arguments for the BP trophy.
As of now, I'm still going with OUATIH. It checks so many boxes. It's a meta-movie about Hollywood and how great the old days were. It's an auteur piece. It's a writer's movie, with a flashy screenplay. It's an actor's movie, with a large ensemble with many scene-stealers. Its editing was also fleshy and a talking point during the marketing. It made money. It's long, but unlike the superior The Irishman, it's a lot of fun. It's got two things going sort of against it: the lack of social importance/a message, and that Tarantino himself is a polarizing figure in media right now.
The way I see it, the other defining races could be:
BD: Scorsese vs Tarantino vs Mendes Original screenplay: Marriage Story vs Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vs Parasite Adapted screenplay: The Irishman vs Little Women vs Jojo Rabbit
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Post by wallsofjericho on Nov 25, 2019 12:22:00 GMT
1917 I think.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 26, 2019 6:25:38 GMT
As usual at this point of the year I really have no clue. The Irishman seems like the safest bet, but in the last years that pattern would usually mean that it wouldn't go on to win the big prize. I just don't see what makes it "the safest bet." Its length and subject matter isn't going to have the mass appeal some Scorsese fans think it will. Also, epics have been pretty well out of fashion with the Academy for a while and I don't really think this is going to be the one to bring that genre back. I also don't really see it playing as well on the preferential ballot, versus crowdpleasers like Jojo Rabbit or smaller, more intimate, shorter movies like Marriage Story. It's a strong player for Director, but that hasn't correlated to BP much this decade. I don’t get your logic against the Irishman. Subject matter? Scorsese won for his last gangster movie. Length? There hasn’t really been many movies of note more than 3 hours long made since Return of the King so there just simply hasn’t been an opportunity to vote for them. Ditto epics... with the exception of Avatar (which did quite well despite no acting or screenplay love, something The Irishman won’t have a problem with) there hasn’t been much of note made since 2003. The academy has a LONG history of loving long big movies. They just haven’t had much chance to lately.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 26, 2019 6:32:34 GMT
Having watched The Irishman (despite not being able to comprehend half of it because of the shitty sound system), it's definitely not a safe bet. We don't have a safe bet this year. Every supposedly major contender has things working against it. It's probably going to be a pretty fractured race with some movie eking it out in the end.
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Post by quetee on Nov 26, 2019 6:34:20 GMT
Having watched The Irishman (despite not being able to comprehend half of it because of the shitty sound system), it's definitely not a safe bet. We don't have a safe bet this year. Every supposedly major contender has things working against it. It's probably going to be a pretty fractured race with some movie eking it out in the end. How many of the contenders have you seen?
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 26, 2019 8:10:50 GMT
According to this poll, there's no chance for Parasite to win BP?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 9:41:06 GMT
According to this poll, there's no chance for Parasite to win BP? If Roma couldn’t win it last year I wouldn’t hold you breath for a non-English language film to win Best Picture anytime remotely soon.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 26, 2019 9:47:53 GMT
According to this poll, there's no chance for Parasite to win BP? If Roma couldn’t win it last year I wouldn’t hold you breath for a non-English language film to win Best Picture anytime remotely soon. That was my first thought. On the other hand, I think it has a better chance to win than, say, the Two Popes. Of course when I finally get to see it, I may change my mind.
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Post by quetee on Nov 26, 2019 15:23:27 GMT
According to this poll, there's no chance for Parasite to win BP? Parasite will show up as an option next month. Someone voted (write in) for it this month. That's how the poll works.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 26, 2019 17:29:28 GMT
Having watched The Irishman (despite not being able to comprehend half of it because of the shitty sound system), it's definitely not a safe bet. We don't have a safe bet this year. Every supposedly major contender has things working against it. It's probably going to be a pretty fractured race with some movie eking it out in the end. I was hoping that 1917 would make it easier, and while it will be a threat, so far it doesn't quite have the "this is definitely going to win" feeling, at least to me. Without getting any acting nominations and maybe not even screenplay, it still has the same cons as before and probably an even worse MC score than Dunkirk. Of course every year is different and most voters probably don't care about MC scores, but that may indicate that a problem with it winning BP if it gets too unfavorably compared to Dunkirk by enough voters.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 26, 2019 18:10:31 GMT
I was hoping that 1917 would make it easier, and while it will be a threat, so far it doesn't quite have the "this is definitely going to win" feeling, at least to me. Without getting any acting nominations and maybe not even screenplay, it still has the same cons as before and probably an even worse MC score than Dunkirk. Of course every year is different and most voters probably don't care about MC scores, but that may indicate that a problem with it winning BP if it gets too unfavorably compared to Dunkirk by enough voters. I think 1917 is a strong contender for Director now because its the most showy work in contention, but I'm not feeling Picture yet. It could manage Picture, but barely.
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Post by stephen on Nov 26, 2019 18:12:46 GMT
I was hoping that 1917 would make it easier, and while it will be a threat, so far it doesn't quite have the "this is definitely going to win" feeling, at least to me. Without getting any acting nominations and maybe not even screenplay, it still has the same cons as before and probably an even worse MC score than Dunkirk. Of course every year is different and most voters probably don't care about MC scores, but that may indicate that a problem with it winning BP if it gets too unfavorably compared to Dunkirk by enough voters. I think 1917 is a strong contender for Director now because its the most showy work in contention, but I'm not feeling Picture yet. It could manage Picture, but barely. If it is as fractured a race as you think it might be, I think a strong push from the British bloc could be enough to tip it over the line. It seems the sort of movie to do decently on a preferential ballot and appeal to the steak-eaters of the Academy, while boasting the "innovative" style of filmmaking to appeal to the younger crowd.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 26, 2019 18:26:16 GMT
If it is as fractured a race as you think it might be, I think a strong push from the British bloc could be enough to tip it over the line. It seems the sort of movie to do decently on a preferential ballot and appeal to the steak-eaters of the Academy, while boasting the "innovative" style of filmmaking to appeal to the younger crowd. I think the British block has fairly often made the difference in terms of being nominated but I think making the difference in terms of actually winning is rare. Almost all British winners that won Best Picture would have also won on just the American (or non-British) ballots. I guess the last two were The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, and I think they ended up winning fairly comfortably in the end and would have even without the British contingent (considering TKS won Director and SM sort of swept). Can the British block make the difference between winning and losing for 1917? Sure. Would I say that's likely? No.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 26, 2019 20:34:21 GMT
If it is as fractured a race as you think it might be, I think a strong push from the British bloc could be enough to tip it over the line. It seems the sort of movie to do decently on a preferential ballot and appeal to the steak-eaters of the Academy, while boasting the "innovative" style of filmmaking to appeal to the younger crowd. I think the British block has fairly often made the difference in terms of being nominated but I think making the difference in terms of actually winning is rare. Almost all British winners that won Best Picture would have also won on just the American (or non-British) ballots. I guess the last two were The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, and I think they ended up winning fairly comfortably in the end and would have even without the British contingent (considering TKS won Director and SM sort of swept). Can the British block make the difference between winning and losing for 1917? Sure. Would I say that's likely. Not yet. I think we overestimate both the importance of the British block and this movies potential dominance of the BAFTA’s. A British set movie hasn’t won the BAFTA for best picture since The King’s Speech. Look at last year. The very British The Favourite lost to the Mexican Roma and both films lost to the very American Greenbook anyways at the Oscars. BAFTA hasn’t matched the Oscars the last five years.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 26, 2019 20:35:23 GMT
If it is as fractured a race as you think it might be, I think a strong push from the British bloc could be enough to tip it over the line. It seems the sort of movie to do decently on a preferential ballot and appeal to the steak-eaters of the Academy, while boasting the "innovative" style of filmmaking to appeal to the younger crowd. I think the British block has fairly often made the difference in terms of being nominated but I think making the difference in terms of actually winning is rare. Almost all British winners that won Best Picture would have also won on just the American (or non-British) ballots. I guess the last two were The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, and I think they ended up winning fairly comfortably in the end and would have even without the British contingent (considering TKS won Director and SM sort of swept). Can the British block make the difference between winning and losing for 1917? Sure. Would I say that's likely. Not yet. I agree. TKS and Slumdog Millionaire would have won easily with a preferential ballot. I'm not sure that 1917 will. Maybe, but just from my initial reaction from the first reviews yesterday is that it seems like this is another year where BAFTA and AMPAS will probably disagree on Best Picture. 85 on MC is a perfectly fine score to win BP, and it may go up, and if it goes down it's probably not going to be by that much, but something just felt missing for me to think it will win BP that easily. I could be wrong and often am, so this certainly could be the case where I am again.
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