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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 13, 2019 21:27:54 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). You're misreading the room matt......most peoples insistence on it is based on merit or if they haven't seen it what they perceive the merit to be from those reviews - always a tough call when it comes to the Oscars who never reward merit of course. The Irishman looks and feels like Unforgiven and No Country For Old Men more than anything tbh.........which hardly "looked" like what a BP winner looked like "on paper" either.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 13, 2019 21:32:50 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). You're misreading the room matt......most peoples insistence on it is based on merit or if they haven't seen it what they perceive the merit to be from those reviews - always a tough call when it comes to the Oscars who never reward merit of course. The Irishman looks and feels like Unforgiven and No Country For Old Men more than anything tbh.........which hardly "looked" like what a BP winner looked like "on paper" either. I guess I just fundamentally disagree with the comparison to those two films and even still, we haven't had a winner with the somber and contemplative tone of The Irishman in quite some time. I just don't think it's kinetic enough to win. I loved the movie (although there's about twenty minutes in the second hour which are just completely extraneous), not a value judgement, more an observation.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 21:35:45 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). You're misreading the room matt......most peoples insistence on it is based on merit or if they haven't seen it what they perceive the merit to be from those reviews - always a tough call when it comes to the Oscars who never reward merit of course. The Irishman looks and feels like Unforgiven and No Country For Old Men more than anything tbh.........which hardly "looked" like what a BP winner looked like "on paper" either. i havent seen the Irishman yet but how does it compare to those two movies.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 13, 2019 21:37:45 GMT
i havent seen the Irishman yet but how does it compare to those two movies. Wistful old man contemplates the violence over his life, or something like that.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 21:46:47 GMT
i havent seen the Irishman yet but how does it compare to those two movies. Wistful old man contemplates the violence over his life, or something like that. ummmm dont think that's enough to win bp nowadays. And people have to remember that the academy wanted to create a new popular movie category to get more people to watch the show. If the Irishman cant showcase that then forget about it especially when a home option is available.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 13, 2019 21:52:32 GMT
You're misreading the room matt......most peoples insistence on it is based on merit or if they haven't seen it what they perceive the merit to be from those reviews - always a tough call when it comes to the Oscars who never reward merit of course. The Irishman looks and feels like Unforgiven and No Country For Old Men more than anything tbh.........which hardly "looked" like what a BP winner looked like "on paper" either. i havent seen the Irishman yet but how does it compare to those two movies. I would say it compares to them in the choices in life and how that ties into fate - like those films it feels inevitable and it gets better and deeper as it goes along - there are a series of classic scenes one after another at one point- it feels like a classic you haven't seen yet unfolding on screen. To be honest I could care less if it actually does win - like Harvey Keitel said back when Scorsese had none - he gets "excluded from the mediocrity" ........but it's fun to play along
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Nov 13, 2019 22:09:17 GMT
I love how Matt comes out of the woodwork every month or so just to tell us how clueless we all are. It's like he feels some obligation to keep us "properly informed" about the awards race periodically because without him we'd become a bubble of woefully ignorant fools.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 14, 2019 14:46:16 GMT
ok, boomer ... 15/29 "experts" at GoldDerby have it at #1. It's 7/1 odds are tied with OUATIH at the top. But yeah, everyone choosing it here is delusional. Tied at the top is far from the same as having 4 times as many votes as any other film. 15 - 6 is hardly a tie.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 14, 2019 14:52:55 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). well then enlighten us. Im not predicting it to win by the way. I’m willing to bet it’s the one with Brad Pitt in it. Just a hunch.
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Post by quetee on Nov 15, 2019 20:37:08 GMT
So JoJo is making a comeback?
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 15, 2019 20:42:17 GMT
So JoJo is making a comeback?
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Nov 18, 2019 3:46:37 GMT
Jojo Rabbit
I have yet to see Irishman, but after seeing Jojo, I’m pretty confident in my pick.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 19, 2019 0:10:49 GMT
Sticking with Tarantino for now.
Honestly though I’d give Ford vs Ferrari or A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood better odds than Marriage Story or Parasite.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 19, 2019 0:40:49 GMT
Sticking with Tarantino for now. Honestly though I’d give Ford vs Ferrari or A Beautiful Day in the Neighbirhood better odds than Marriage Story or Parasite.I have so many questions.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 19, 2019 3:50:15 GMT
Wistful old man contemplates the violence over his life, or something like that. ummmm dont think that's enough to win bp nowadays. And people have to remember that the academy wanted to create a new popular movie category to get more people to watch the show. If the Irishman cant showcase that then forget about it especially when a home option is available. After seeing The Irishman, yes I don’t think it will win now. I loved it, and it would probably be my favorite film of the year behind Parasite, but I don’t know if there’s a narrative there along with my feelings that it probably won’t do well on a consensus ballot. Not sure what to go with yet instead. OUATIH might comeback and being about the industry is a positive, but if it wins Best a Picture, I would think it would also win Original Screenplay and Director, but I don’t see it winning all 3. I’m toying with the idea of Sam Mendes winning Director but then Marriage Story or JoJo Rabbit winning Picture. I’m leaning towards the former partly because of bias, admittedly, and also because it seems like there will be very few haters of it and no real controversy.
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Post by quetee on Nov 19, 2019 5:58:11 GMT
ummmm dont think that's enough to win bp nowadays. And people have to remember that the academy wanted to create a new popular movie category to get more people to watch the show. If the Irishman cant showcase that then forget about it especially when a home option is available. After seeing The Irishman, yes I don’t think it will win now. I loved it, and it would probably be my favorite film of the year behind Parasite, but I don’t know if there’s a narrative there along with my feelings that it probably won’t do well on a consensus ballot. Not sure what to go with yet instead. OUATIH might comeback and being about the industry is a positive, but if it wins Best a Picture, I would think it would also win Original Screenplay and Director, but I don’t see it winning all 3. I’m toying with the idea of Sam Mendes winning Director but then Marriage Story or JoJo Rabbit winning Picture. I’m leaning towards the former partly because of bias, admittedly, and also because it seems like there will be very few haters of it and no real controversy. I don't know about Marriage Story. I wonder if people will be turned off once they realized it is based on Jennifer Jason Leigh, who is well respected in the industry.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 19, 2019 7:31:34 GMT
After seeing The Irishman, yes I don’t think it will win now. I loved it, and it would probably be my favorite film of the year behind Parasite, but I don’t know if there’s a narrative there along with my feelings that it probably won’t do well on a consensus ballot. Not sure what to go with yet instead. OUATIH might comeback and being about the industry is a positive, but if it wins Best a Picture, I would think it would also win Original Screenplay and Director, but I don’t see it winning all 3. I’m toying with the idea of Sam Mendes winning Director but then Marriage Story or JoJo Rabbit winning Picture. I’m leaning towards the former partly because of bias, admittedly, and also because it seems like there will be very few haters of it and no real controversy. I don't know about Marriage Story. I wonder if people will be turned off once they realized it is based on Jennifer Jason Leigh, who is well respected in the industry. You are really overthinking this.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 19, 2019 10:37:46 GMT
I don't know about Marriage Story. I wonder if people will be turned off once they realized it is based on Jennifer Jason Leigh, who is well respected in the industry. You are really overthinking this. I probably am like usual, lol. I don't really think many will care about what happened between Jennifer Jason Leigh and Noah Baumbach, and fwiw, the Wall Street Journal just did an interview with Baumbach and with some of the cast members, and he was asked about JJL and if she was okay with the film. Here was his response, For anyone that wants to see the rest of the interview, it was behind a paywall, so someone at Reddit transcribed it here.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 19, 2019 10:52:10 GMT
I don't think it will have anything to do with it actually.
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Post by quetee on Nov 19, 2019 19:57:36 GMT
I don't know about Marriage Story. I wonder if people will be turned off once they realized it is based on Jennifer Jason Leigh, who is well respected in the industry. Naaaaaaaaaah, I don't think people will care much about the film's source material. Most ppl don't even know Leigh and Baumbach relationship. Okay.I heard the movie is getting walk outs and I was trying to figure out why.
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Post by stephen on Nov 19, 2019 20:59:29 GMT
After seeing The Irishman, yes I don’t think it will win now. I loved it, and it would probably be my favorite film of the year behind Parasite, but I don’t know if there’s a narrative there along with my feelings that it probably won’t do well on a consensus ballot. Not sure what to go with yet instead. OUATIH might comeback and being about the industry is a positive, but if it wins Best a Picture, I would think it would also win Original Screenplay and Director, but I don’t see it winning all 3. I’m toying with the idea of Sam Mendes winning Director but then Marriage Story or JoJo Rabbit winning Picture. I’m leaning towards the former partly because of bias, admittedly, and also because it seems like there will be very few haters of it and no real controversy. I don't know about Marriage Story. I wonder if people will be turned off once they realized it is based on Jennifer Jason Leigh, who is well respected in the industry. I doubt that very much. Most people won't know that factoid watching it, and it's not like the movie takes the position that Leigh was "in the wrong."
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Post by sirjeremy on Nov 24, 2019 8:58:58 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 24, 2019 12:52:26 GMT
I don't think so.........I see no above the line wins for this at all - it's a director also ran, a screenplay also ran (I'm guessing here) - maybe at best an acting nod or none at all, maybe it's emotional affecting but it's emotionally affecting about World War 1 - who wants to be assaulted the way the Twitter circle jerk reactions have described this film? Just not buying that as a front runner is all I'm saying, to me it's clearly - on paper - behind The Irishman which is going to go off like a seismic blast in 4 days.........now that doesn't mean 1917 can't win of course - I predicted Roma pfffft what do I know - but I just don't see why on paper this wouldn't be far more the threat to pull an upset in the race rather than to being "the one to beat/front runner"
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 24, 2019 13:16:53 GMT
As usual at this point of the year I really have no clue. The Irishman seems like the safest bet, but in the last years that pattern would usually mean that it wouldn't go on to win the big prize.
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Post by quetee on Nov 24, 2019 18:37:59 GMT
As usual at this point of the year I really have no clue. The Irishman seems like the safest bet, but in the last years that pattern would usually mean that it wouldn't go on to win the big prize. Pretty much. I don't see it winning bp. I have no clue right now but doubt it will be irishman.
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