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Post by quetee on Nov 10, 2019 20:33:48 GMT
And then there were eight. Last month, The Report received no votes so it flunked out for this round.
FLASHBACK to October 2018, we had A Star Is Born as a BP winner and Green Book was not even a contender.
If you think something not on this list has a shot at winning BP, please post it in the comments.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 10, 2019 20:43:45 GMT
The Irishman OUATIH Marriage Story Parasite 1917
Or maybe Jojo Rabbit can sneak in.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 10, 2019 20:44:19 GMT
Marriage Story
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 10, 2019 21:23:04 GMT
Now that I've seen it, it's like annoying little boys wanting to play in a world of men.........men with guns.......The Irishman........and may your first child be a masculine child.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 10, 2019 21:34:36 GMT
I'm still going with The Irishman, but a case could be made for six movies right now imo (1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite).
Path for each film: 1917 - Could win DGA and PGA.
The Irishman - Probably would win DGA and maybe PGA although Netflix so maybe not the latter, and WGA Adapted.
Jojo Rabbit - Could take home possible PGA and SAG Ensemble wins along with WGA Adapted.
Marriage Story - SAG Ensemble and WGA Original.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - PGA and maybe DGA, but PGA seems most likely imo.
Parasite - DGA, and I guess PGA if it qualifies.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 21:35:02 GMT
1. The Irishman (I'd lean towards this winning right now) 2. Marriage Story (could also easily see this winning) 3. Jojo Rabbit (I don't know, I feel like this will be really awful and embarrassing politically which sets off blaring alarms in my head that the Academy will eat it up)
The only major contenders I've seen as of this moment are Hollywood and Joker (so take the above with a grain of salt, just gut impressions based on what I know of the films), the former of which I love but have a really hard time imagining winning Best Picture, and the latter of which was nauseatingly bad and an even more doubtful winner based on...a lot.
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Post by stephen on Nov 10, 2019 21:53:34 GMT
Sticking with Marriage Story.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 10, 2019 21:54:10 GMT
A tough call...I succumbed to the 'general wisdom' and went with Marriage Story. Even though the trend of the last several winners has been a 'relevant' message at their centre, I'm not sure if Marriage Story has one...but what it does have is a certain universality, an easy relatability which could really help it. It's got the acclaim too. Plus it's about people from the industry which should also help its chances of breaking the voters' hearts.
The Irishman seems like a huge fucking deal but I'm sure some of those asswipes won't bother sitting through a 210-minute movie and maybe some will feel that they don't really owe that team any more Oscars. Unfortunately proper epics have had a hard time winning BP lately.
Jojo Rabbit is the message movie of the year for sure but its quirkiness in the midst of the subject matter probably will be a problem for some.
1917 feels like the tech juggernaut which eventually fails to win the main ones.
As for OUATIH...Best Picture winners are about uniting people and Tarantino's stuff creates opposing camps both of which are equally passionate.
So yeah, I can totally see Marriage Story taking BP, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay and maybe Best Supporting Actress (or maybe Dern wins and Johannsson loses). So basically a standard three or four Oscar haul which BP winners seem to share these days.
Heck, I can see a scenario in which Little Women kinda takes it in the end.
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Post by pendragon on Nov 10, 2019 23:24:45 GMT
I'm actually starting to get an inkling that Parasite will go all the way. It's a film that everyone seems to love and no one seems to dislike. It's biggest issue was going to be visibility, but after opening to the best PTA of the year and now playing in over 600 theaters, that's becoming less and less of a problem.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Nov 10, 2019 23:52:39 GMT
Hollywood seems like the type of film to do very well on preferential ballot and those with anti streaming sentiment still would probably place The Irishman as low as they can.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Nov 10, 2019 23:58:18 GMT
My gut says Jojo Rabbit ... maybe because everything about it sounds absolutely awful yet somehow just right for Oscar.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Nov 11, 2019 14:39:07 GMT
Going with Jojo Rabbit for now. I know it's highly unlikely for two consecutive years to play out the same way, but this early in the race I wouldn't be surprised to see The Irishman go the way of Roma. It's the cinephiles' pick (or at least one of them, considering Parasite and Marriage Story are right up there too in terms of adoration), one of the biggest cinematic events of the year and a film that will certainly go down as one of the major achievements of this decade— but as we learned last season that kind of hype will only take a movie so far, and I can already foresee personal bias shaping people's perception of the race in favor of a film they fiercely love but which has its own considerable set of drawbacks working against it. "It's clearly the best, most important and most epic nominee, nothing else is on its scope or its level of prestige, so logically it's locked and nothing else can compete" isn't a reliable measure, and it hasn't been for several seasons now. Some leftover Netflix resentment will certainly come into play and cause many Academy members to vote against The Irishman, and its 210-minute runtime might make it as daunting a proposition as a slow-paced arthouse black & white foreign-language drama was for many voters. It's not hard to imagine that a lot of them might turn it off halfway through after they find out it's not another Goodfellas or The Departed. It's generally a wise move not to overestimate the Academy's taste and sensibilities, especially in light of their past two Best Picture choices. So yeah. Right now I'm thinking the likeliest scenario is The Irishman wins some combination of Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Director and a tech prize, but ultimately loses out on the preferential ballot to a more accessible choice. Which I don't think will be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood because it's too polarizing and also has its own pervasive complaints about runtime and pacing. Very little happens in the first 2 hours and most of its scenes are basically stretched to their breaking points, which is sure to turn a lot of voters off. I never really got on board with this notion that OUATIH is a Best Picture frontrunner or a clear-cut winner, and I find that it's much more likely to instead rack up many nods with few wins, like Pulp Fiction and Inglourious Bastards. There's Parasite, which is universally beloved and far more accessible than Roma, but I don't see any foreign language film winning Best Picture while the International Feature category exists. Marriage Story could be it, but again: Netflix. It will probably be the year's indie darling and win Supporting Actress/Original Screenplay but get passed over in the main category in favor of a more widely embraced and more politically-minded alternative. Which brings me to Jojo Rabbit, our potential Green Book/Shape of Water 3.0: it's safe, it's a crowdpleaser, it sends a political message, it's about unity and tolerance in a way that's accessible and non-confrontational, and it's the #1 priority of a strong studio responsible for 3 of the past 6 BP winners. It got middling reviews but Academy voters don't consult Metacritic to get permission to vote; the polarizing responses didn't stop it from winning the TIFF Audience Award, and the people who love it REALLY love it (all of which was also true of Green Book). It's the exact type of movie that plays like gangbusters on a preferential ballot, and the path for the win is pretty clear: GG Comedy/Musical, SAG Ensemble, PGA. It could lose DGA and even WGA to The Irishman but back just like Green Book did. This could all change once 1917 screens (and Little Women, though the early responses weren't THAT enthusiastic), but until that happens I'm sticking to 🐇 this month.
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Post by quetee on Nov 11, 2019 17:47:37 GMT
Going with Jojo Rabbit for now. I know it's highly unlikely for two consecutive years to play out the same way, but this early in the race I wouldn't be surprised to see The Irishman go the way of Roma. It's the cinephiles' pick (or at least one of them, considering Parasite and Marriage Story are right up there too in terms of adoration), one of the biggest cinematic events of the year and a film that will certainly go down as one of the major achievements of this decade— but as we learned last season that kind of hype will only take a movie so far, and I can already foresee personal bias shaping people's perception of the race in favor of a film they fiercely love but which has its own considerable set of drawbacks working against it. "It's clearly the best, most important and most epic nominee, nothing else is on its scope or its level of prestige, so logically it's locked and nothing else can compete" isn't a reliable measure, and it hasn't been for several seasons now. Some leftover Netflix resentment will certainly come into play and cause many Academy members to vote against The Irishman, and its 210-minute runtime might make it as daunting a proposition as a slow-paced arthouse black & white foreign-language drama was for many voters. It's not hard to imagine that a lot of them might turn it off halfway through after they find out it's not another Goodfellas or The Departed. It's generally a wise move not to overestimate the Academy's taste and sensibilities, especially in light of their past two Best Picture choices. So yeah. Right now I'm thinking the likeliest scenario is The Irishman wins some combination of Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Director and a tech prize, but ultimately loses out on the preferential ballot to a more accessible choice. Which I don't think will be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood because it's too polarizing and also has its own pervasive complaints about runtime and pacing. Very little happens in the first 2 hours and most of its scenes are basically stretched to their breaking points, which is sure to turn a lot of voters off. I never really got on board with this notion that OUATIH is a Best Picture frontrunner or a clear-cut winner, and I find that it's much more likely to instead rack up many nods with few wins, like Pulp Fiction and Inglourious Bastards. There's Parasite, which is universally beloved and far more accessible than Roma, but I don't see any foreign language film winning Best Picture while the International Feature category exists. Marriage Story could be it, but again: Netflix. It will probably be the year's indie darling and win Supporting Actress/Original Screenplay but get passed over in the main category in favor of a more widely embraced and more politically-minded alternative. Which brings me to Jojo Rabbit, our potential Green Book/Shape of Water 3.0: it's safe, it's a crowdpleaser, it sends a political message, it's about unity and tolerance in a way that's accessible and non-confrontational, and it's the #1 priority of a strong studio responsible for 3 of the past 6 BP winners. It got middling reviews but Academy voters don't consult Metacritic to get permission to vote; the polarizing responses didn't stop it from winning the TIFF Audience Award, and the people who love it REALLY love it (all of which was also true of Green Book). It's the exact type of movie that plays like gangbusters on a preferential ballot, and the path for the win is pretty clear: GG Comedy/Musical, SAG Ensemble, PGA. It could lose DGA and even WGA to The Irishman but back just like Green Book did. This could all change once 1917 screens (and Little Women, though the early responses weren't THAT enthusiastic), but until that happens I'm sticking to 🐇 this month. good commentary. Im not picking an Irishman win or marriage story win right now. I have no clue but i am voting 1917. That is of course a problem with that pick and it is the same problem with picking Jojo. We have to have acting nods. When was the last time a movie won without one nod? Im gonna guess retun of the king and that was a special case. So if you pick jojo, you need an acting nod and a lot of people are not picking one. If jojo is really the winner then we need to start looking at those kids as possible nominees. As for 1917, i went to fyc and and they list three people and im clueless. The recognizable people in trailer ( colin and Benedict) are not there. So if i wanna maintain my 1917 is gonna win, i need a nominee and there is no word yet on the quality of the movie.
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Post by stephen on Nov 11, 2019 17:53:06 GMT
I have no clue but i am voting 1917. That is of course a problem with that pick and it is the same problem with picking Jojo. We have to have acting nods. When was the last time a movie won without one nod? Im gonna guess retun of the king and that was a special case. So if you pick jojo, you need an acting nod and a lot of people are not picking one. If jojo is really the winner then we need to start looking at those kids as possible nominees. As for 1917, i went to fyc and and they list three people and im clueless. The recognizable people in trailer ( colin and Benedict) are not there. So if i wanna maintain my 1917 is gonna win, i need a nominee and there is no word yet on the quality of the movie. Slumdog Millionaire was the last time a film won BP with no acting nods. Jojo has a strong shot at one, perhaps even two Supporting Actress nominations. The category is a wasteland, even by the category's general standards. It also feels like a strong bet for SAG Ensemble. 1917 feels like the big tech player that normally wins Director these days, and I expect BAFTA to go hard for it (including, NGNG, a Best Actor play for George Mackay), but I think it contents itself with being this year's Gravity.
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Post by quetee on Nov 11, 2019 22:28:51 GMT
I have no clue but i am voting 1917. That is of course a problem with that pick and it is the same problem with picking Jojo. We have to have acting nods. When was the last time a movie won without one nod? Im gonna guess retun of the king and that was a special case. So if you pick jojo, you need an acting nod and a lot of people are not picking one. If jojo is really the winner then we need to start looking at those kids as possible nominees. As for 1917, i went to fyc and and they list three people and im clueless. The recognizable people in trailer ( colin and Benedict) are not there. So if i wanna maintain my 1917 is gonna win, i need a nominee and there is no word yet on the quality of the movie. Slumdog Millionaire was the last time a film won BP with no acting nods. Jojo has a strong shot at one, perhaps even two Supporting Actress nominations. The category is a wasteland, even by the category's general standards. It also feels like a strong bet for SAG Ensemble. 1917 feels like the big tech player that normally wins Director these days, and I expect BAFTA to go hard for it (including, NGNG, a Best Actor play for George Mackay), but I think it contents itself with being this year's Gravity. i always forget about Slumdog. It is possible it is a tech winner only but nobody knows the quality yet. The jury is still out on approx five contenders.
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Post by quetee on Nov 12, 2019 21:32:19 GMT
Hmmmmm....
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 12, 2019 21:50:44 GMT
One thing I'd say is that last year some of the discussion was spread out among threads rather than polls - I wrote the below on October 10th and I may not have been the first.......that's because Roma generated so much talk outside of our polls because it was so odd (Netflix, foreign subtitled, B&W).......although I later ended up predicting Roma anyway since it was just the better film, but the Oscars of course reward merit as often as I eat pizza with vegetables on it so what do I know. Shrug.......
As of right now, how serious is Roma for Best Picture? - thread
Green Book to me seems the one to beat, populist, 100% on RT and its going to stay high - it won't face the same ASIB backlash, socially conscious, comedy drama with laughs so it doesn't seem preachy.
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Post by quetee on Nov 12, 2019 22:35:39 GMT
One thing I'd say is that last year some of the discussion was spread out among threads rather than polls - I wrote the below on October 10th and I may not have been the first.......that's because Roma generated so much talk outside of our polls because it was so odd (Netflix, foreign subtitled, B&W).......although I later ended up predicting Roma anyway since it was just the better film, but the Oscars of course reward merit as often as I eat pizza with vegetables on it so what do I know. Shrug....... As of right now, how serious is Roma for Best Picture? - thread Green Book to me seems the one to beat, populist, 100% on RT and its going to stay high - it won't face the same ASIB backlash, socially conscious, comedy drama with laughs so it doesn't seem preachy.Awards are subjective.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 13, 2019 20:43:50 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now).
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Post by Martin Stett on Nov 13, 2019 20:50:24 GMT
I'm still voting for Irishman, but Matt is right. We're all putting way too much on it, and this thing was never a sure bet.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 13, 2019 20:50:33 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). Which one are you predicting at the moment?
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 13, 2019 20:53:07 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). ok, boomer ... 15/29 "experts" at GoldDerby have it at #1. It's 7/1 odds are tied with OUATIH at the top. But yeah, everyone choosing it here is delusional. Tied at the top is far from the same as having 4 times as many votes as any other film.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 13, 2019 21:12:45 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). ok, boomer ... 15/29 "experts" at GoldDerby have it at #1. It's 7/1 odds are tied with OUATIH at the top. But yeah, everyone choosing it here is delusional. I get the cons against it (too long, maybe not "important" enough, limited path, Scorsese already won BP and BD), but I feel that everything else has cons too right now so to me it makes as much sense as anything else. 1917: Strong buzz but other than that this is still a big question mark. Also at least for me, it seems odd that if Dunkirk couldn't do it just a few years ago despite likely earning more, and perhaps liked by critics more that this will. Not to mention the fact that Sam Mendes hasn't really got that close to BP/BD heat for a long time, and he's just going to win his second BP/BD. Stranger things have happened, but I have a lot of doubts right now that it will go that far. Jojo Rabbit: It is a crowd pleaser plus "importance" factor, but I feel its path is too much like Green Book's for it to win right after Green Book did. I also think this will be more divisive to people even though I liked it more than GB. Marriage Story: Netflix plus it doesn't feel as "important" as most of the other potential BP winners. OUATIH: An original film that made a lot of money, and has two of the biggest stars of the world in it. Also about the industry's favorite subject, itself. However, I think compared to The Irishman, I think that OUATIH will come out looking worse since The Irishman is also a passion project on large scale that has gotten much better reviews and so far has missed the controversy that was around OUATIH. There was some early on, but then that seems to have shifted towards Scorsese vs. Marvel. Parasite: Certainly has reached the zeitgeist in a way that none of the other contenders have or probably will, but still with the Best International Film category right there, I don't think they'll award it in BP too.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 13, 2019 21:20:44 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). I've only seen one person insist that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner, and that's pacinoyes. The overwhelming consensus on this forum is that The Irisman is the frontrunner, but I doubt most people who voted for it think it's way ahead of the competition. You can vote for The Irishman even if you think Marriage Story is really close behind.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 21:23:19 GMT
This forum's insistence that The Irishman is the overwhelming frontrunner is so far removed from the narrative everywhere else. You are all either going to look prescient or in the bag for that movie (which y'all have clearly been for a while now). well then enlighten us. Im not predicting it to win by the way.
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