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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2019 3:52:18 GMT
I would say Roma got pretty damn close, plus $20 mil for a Korean film in limited release is insanely impressive. Needing a big box office isn't essential to getting nominated for/winning BP, just one of the many factors that are in Parasite's favour. Box office doesn't matter when it comes to a nod but I can't see the academy giving bp win to a foreign movie that doesn't make a major impact at the box office. 22 years ago Life Is beautiful made 60mil just here and it was not a niche movie. Right now, Parasite, it still pretty niche. I do however, believe that it will score a bp nod cause I think it is making more of a impact in comparison to Roma. Roma had the critic darling support but not the audience rating support. Right now, Parasite appears to have both. Well said.
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Post by DeepArcher on Nov 11, 2019 4:26:03 GMT
I also have seen a lot more people in person and online talk about Parasite then I did last year for Roma. Hm, well, that certainly hasn’t been the case for me, but I can’t say it hasn’t been for you, lol. To be fair, Parasite has universal audience acclaim that Roma did not have, which should work hugely in its favor. That said, I still feel there’s too much working against at the moment. I’m not exactly optimistic when it comes to these things so, as I said, I’ll believe it when I see it.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2019 4:37:03 GMT
Not really, I think. For one, it didn’t win BP despite being the presumed frontrunner heading into the night, and I find it hard to believe that its status as a non-English language film didn’t play into that. More importantly, it was a Netflix film that people could watch in their own homes. International films don’t get multiplex releases in the States and generally don’t draw audiences — and while Parasite’s had good box office numbers, there’s little doubt in my mind that it’s still only been seen by a fraction of the people who watched Roma on Netflix. Not to mention, Netflix had a monster campaign for it that I’m pretty sure Neon wouldn’t be able pull off at all. And there are factors I could mention — Roma was a flashier product, Cuaròn was a previous winner, it had a narrative that Parasite just doesn’t have, etc. The point is: Roma’s the exception here, not the rule. I don’t at all believe its relative success is evidence that the Academy is becoming more accepting of international film, and if such a trend does start to occur, it’ll likely be the result of international films getting increased exposure on streaming services than anything else. Also, unless I'm just totally remembering things wrong, I feel like most people thought Green Book was going to win going into the night. You're misremembering. Roma was the definite favorite.
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Post by quetee on Nov 11, 2019 4:53:57 GMT
Also, unless I'm just totally remembering things wrong, I feel like most people thought Green Book was going to win going into the night. You're misremembering. Roma was the definite favorite. Big time misrembering. We didn't vote for it as bp nod until January.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 5, 2019 6:18:19 GMT
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood has taken multiple hits since the poll was opened. It went from a fringe contender to a longshot.
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2019 6:28:23 GMT
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood has taken multiple hits since the poll was opened. It went from a fringe contender to a longshot. That has taken a huge hit. Bfca will probably give it a nod and that's it.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 11, 2019 15:51:38 GMT
Post SAG/Globes/tech guilds:
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood The Irishman Parasite Joker Marriage Story 1917 Ford v Ferrari The Two Popes
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 11, 2019 21:38:59 GMT
Currently thinking:
1917 Bombshell The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women Marriage Story Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood Parasite
So, what I was predicting the other day + Parasite (which ... I still feel hesitant about, but at this point I'd just be refuting logical thinking ... I still honestly wouldn't be shocked if it gets snubbed here come nomination day). I honestly think Little Women just got Phantom Thread-ed at SAG where it just hadn't screen for enough people in time. And Ford v. Ferrari looks good but I still think it gets Rush-ed out. The Two Popes is clearly just a Boomer HFPA thing, which means it still has good chances here but I'm not quite buying it yet. Knives Out was looking very possible but after missing SAG I feel like it's dead here, probably only a Screenplay nod now.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 11, 2019 22:16:05 GMT
At this point (ranked):
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. The Irishman 3. Marriage Story 4. 1917 5. Parasite 6. Joker 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Little Women 9. Ford v Ferrari
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Post by quetee on Dec 11, 2019 22:26:56 GMT
Why are people predicting 9? We haven't had that many in years.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 11, 2019 22:30:39 GMT
At this point (ranked): 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. The Irishman 3. Marriage Story 4. 1917 5. Parasite 6. Joker 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Little Women 9. Ford v Ferrari I basically have the same top 9 right now, but in a different order. 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. The Irishman 3. Parasite 4. Joker - I think Phillips still misses Director, but I can't argue with its guild run so far. Then about equal but all have missed key things, 5. Jojo Rabbit - Got SAG Ensemble, but did poorly at the Globes. 6. Marriage Story - Underwhelming so far, but still locked in for BP, and I think Dern still wins even though admittedly I'm a little more nervous after Marriage Story missed SAG Ensemble. 7. 1917 - I'll probably move it up, but aside from getting Mendes at the Globes, it's underwhelmed so far especially Marriage Story getting ACE over it. Could there be only 7 films this year? I'm only confident in the above 7 because after these, the other possibilities have even more cons then the mid-tier films do. 8. Ford v Ferrari - Got an ACE nomination, and Bale looks good for an above the line nomination. It's also a huge crowdpleaser. Missed AFI's Top 10 list though, and lineup feels really sausage heavy. 9. Little Women - Maybe Bombshell, but I think that LW can still surprise on nomination morning with a BP nom and noms that it's missed at guilds over the past few days. Usually there's at least one BP film where the lead character is female, but with LW and Bombshell potentially missing, it's going to feel even more slanted towards male lead films than usual, so I think one of them can still make it in.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 11, 2019 22:31:52 GMT
Why are people predicting 9? We haven't had that many in years. There were 9 in 2017, 2016, 2013, 2012 and 2011 since the rule was put in place.
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Post by quetee on Dec 11, 2019 22:35:46 GMT
Why are people predicting 9? We haven't had that many in years. There were 9 in 2017, 2016, 2013, 2012 and 2011 since the rule was put in place. Oh okay.
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Post by quetee on Dec 11, 2019 22:37:41 GMT
At this point (ranked): 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. The Irishman 3. Marriage Story 4. 1917 5. Parasite 6. Joker 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Little Women 9. Ford v Ferrari I basically have the same top 9 right now, but in a different order. 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 2. The Irishman 3. Parasite 4. Joker - I think Phillips still misses Director, but I can't argue with its guild run so far. Then about equal but all have missed key things, 5. Jojo Rabbit - Got SAG Ensemble, but did poorly at the Globes. 6. Marriage Story - Underwhelming so far, but still locked in for BP, and I think Dern still wins even though admittedly I'm a little more nervous after Marriage Story missed SAG Ensemble. 7. 1917 - I'll probably move it up, but aside from getting Mendes at the Globes, it's underwhelmed so far especially Marriage Story getting ACE over it. Could there be only 7 films this year? I'm only confident in the above 7 because after these, the other possibilities have even more cons then the mid-tier films do. 8. Ford v Ferrari - Got an ACE nomination, and Bale looks good for an above the line nomination. It's also a huge crowdpleaser. Missed AFI's Top 10 list though, and lineup feels really sausage heavy. 9. Little Women - Maybe Bombshell, but I think that LW can still surprise on nomination morning with a BP nom and noms that it's missed at guilds over the past few days. Usually there's at least one BP film where the lead character is female, but with LW and Bombshell potentially missing, it's going to feel even more slanted towards male lead films than usual, so I think one of them can still make it in. A24 not scoring a nod seems shocking at this point especially with their slate.
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