Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 9, 2019 3:39:50 GMT
I looked for a thread on this and couldn't find one, so I thought I'd create it. There is one on what will win, but there isn't one for nominees. I'm also going to add a poll with all plausible contenders, and I'm going to keep the poll open so people can make changes to their votes as the race unfolds.
Please vote for at least 5 movies, because there will be at least 5 nominees in Best Picture. You can choose up to 10 nominees.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 9, 2019 3:43:45 GMT
My current predictions (in order of likelihood of being nominated):
1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Parasite 5. Jojo Rabbit 6. 1917 7. The Farewell 8. Little Women (9). The Two Popes (10). Joker
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 9, 2019 5:40:43 GMT
1. The Irishman 2. Marriage Story 3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Parasite 5. Little Women 6. 1917 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker 9. The Two Popes
--------------- Just missing: 10. Richard Jewell 11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 12. Bombshell 13. Ford v Ferrari 14. The Farewell 15. Rocketman 16. Dark Waters 17. Just Mercy
I think the top 5 are set (The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite), and then after that it depends on the reviews of the late releases especially 1917 and Little Women. I think they're in if they live up to the buzz and early Twitter reactions, but there's always a chance reviews might not be that good.
Then, there's like 10-15 films battling for the last one or two spots. I think Joker will get in because I don't see Phoenix winning without it being nominated, but it should be in because it seems to be following a similar trajectory as Bohemian Rhapsody in some ways.
Then, in the last spot I have The Two Popes. I'm not sure about Netflix getting 3 films in, but it keeps winning several audience awards and there's certainly a demographic in AMPAS that it will appeal to.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Nov 9, 2019 6:46:37 GMT
BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS 01. The Irishman (Netflix) 02. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) 03. Marriage Story (Netflix) 04. Parasite (NEON) 05. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) 06. 1917 (Universal) 07. Ford v Ferrari (2oth Century Fox) 08. Joker (Warner Bros.) (09.) - Little Women (Sony) (10.) - The Farewell (A24)
OTHER CONTENDERS RANKED: 11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony) 12. The Two Popes (Netflix) 13. Rocketman (Paramount) 14. Bombshell (Lionsgate) 15. Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Waves (A24) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Avengers: Endgame (Disney) 16. The Lighthouse (A24) 17. Hustlers (STX) 18. Pain and Glory (Sony Pictures Classics) -UNLISTED ABOVE: The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside Attractions) 19. Queen & Slim (Universal) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Knives Out (Lionsgate) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Judy (Roadside Attractions) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Ad Astra (20th Century Fox) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Harriet (Focus Features) 20. Richard Jewell (Warner Bros.) 21. Just Mercy (Warner Bros.) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Downton Abbey (Focus Features) -UNLISTED ABOVE: Uncut Gems (A24) 22. A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight) 23. Dark Waters (Focus Features) 24. Us (Universal) 25. Cats lol (Universal)
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 9, 2019 14:17:58 GMT
No order:
Marriage Story The Irishman Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite Jojo Rabbit 1917 Little Women Joker A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood Little Women
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Post by JangoB on Nov 9, 2019 18:45:36 GMT
My predictions in order of likelihood:
1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Little Women 5. 1917 6. Parasite 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker 9. The Two Popes
Really unsure why some people are doubtful about Little Women. Felt like a surefire nominee to me since forever and those ecstatic reactions to it only seem to confirm my view. In this day and age this classic story of womanhood will have an even bigger impact than it might've had before. The fact that it's one of many adaptations doesn't seem like a hindrance to me considering last year's A Star is Born. And again, the on-going hoopla about women in film will be even more of an advantage. Plus all the goodwill towards Greta Gerwig.
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Post by stephen on Nov 9, 2019 18:54:12 GMT
1917 The Farewell The Irishman Jojo Rabbit Joker Marriage Story Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood Parasite
ALT: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Little Women
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 9, 2019 18:55:07 GMT
My predictions in order of likelihood: 1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Little Women 5. 1917 6. Parasite 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker 9. The Two Popes Really unsure why some people are doubtful about Little Women. Felt like a surefire nominee to me since forever and those ecstatic reactions to it only seem to confirm my view. In this day and age this classic story of womanhood will have an even bigger impact than it might've had before. The fact that it's one of many adaptations doesn't seem like a hindrance to me considering last year's A Star is Born. And again, the on-going hoopla about women in film will be even more of an advantage. Plus all the goodwill towards Greta Gerwig. I have it at 8, so I'm predicting it, but the reason I have it relatively low is primarily that it still hasn't been officially reviewed yet, so there is that uncertainty. That's also the reason why I have 1917 a little low, even if I think it's a potential contender for the win.
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Post by DeepArcher on Nov 9, 2019 18:56:10 GMT
Currently think it's just these eight (in order of likelihood): 1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood 4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5. 1917 6. Little Women 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker --- And the next most likely after that: 9. Bombshell 10. Ford v. Ferrari 11. The Report (not on the poll, being underestimated here) 12. Parasite 13. The Two Popes 14. Waves (also should be an option here) 15. The Farewell 16. Rocketman 17. Dark Waters (still too much of an unknown, idk)
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Post by JangoB on Nov 9, 2019 19:10:44 GMT
My predictions in order of likelihood: 1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Little Women 5. 1917 6. Parasite 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker 9. The Two Popes Really unsure why some people are doubtful about Little Women. Felt like a surefire nominee to me since forever and those ecstatic reactions to it only seem to confirm my view. In this day and age this classic story of womanhood will have an even bigger impact than it might've had before. The fact that it's one of many adaptations doesn't seem like a hindrance to me considering last year's A Star is Born. And again, the on-going hoopla about women in film will be even more of an advantage. Plus all the goodwill towards Greta Gerwig. I have it at 8, so I'm predicting it, but the reason I have it relatively low is primarily that it still hasn't been officially reviewed yet, so there is that uncertainty. That's also the reason why I have 1917 a little low, even if I think it's a potential contender for the win. Are you gonna do the same poll kind of thing for the other categories? It's a good format and I think the board's predictions do require some updating!
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 9, 2019 20:57:06 GMT
Are you gonna do the same poll kind of thing for the other categories? It's a good format and I think the board's predictions do require some updating! I don't know, Stephen already has the threads for many of the top awards (even if they don't have a poll in them). I think it's possible to add polls to existing threads, so it's probably better he does it because his threads are already long and have a lot of discussions in them.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Nov 9, 2019 21:18:24 GMT
My predictions in order of likelihood: 1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Little Women 5. 1917 6. Parasite 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker 9. The Two Popes Really unsure why some people are doubtful about Little Women. Felt like a surefire nominee to me since forever and those ecstatic reactions to it only seem to confirm my view. In this day and age this classic story of womanhood will have an even bigger impact than it might've had before. The fact that it's one of many adaptations doesn't seem like a hindrance to me considering last year's A Star is Born. And again, the on-going hoopla about women in film will be even more of an advantage. Plus all the goodwill towards Greta Gerwig. These are the 9 I'd bet on as well.
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Post by stephen on Nov 9, 2019 21:29:10 GMT
Are you gonna do the same poll kind of thing for the other categories? It's a good format and I think the board's predictions do require some updating! I don't know, Stephen already has the threads for many of the top awards (even if they don't have a poll in them). I think it's possible to add polls to existing threads, so it's probably better he does it because his threads are already long and have a lot of discussions in them. Updated Best Actor and will be doing so with the other categories.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 10, 2019 1:31:38 GMT
Currently think it's just these eight (in order of likelihood): 1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood 4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5. 1917 6. Little Women 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker --- And the next most likely after that: 9. Bombshell 10. Ford v. Ferrari 11. The Report (not on the poll, being underestimated here) 12. Parasite 13. The Two Popes 14. Waves (also should be an option here) 15. The Farewell 16. Rocketman 17. Dark Waters (still too much of an unknown, idk) Parasite at 12?????????
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Post by DeepArcher on Nov 10, 2019 5:20:30 GMT
Currently think it's just these eight (in order of likelihood): 1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood 4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5. 1917 6. Little Women 7. Jojo Rabbit 8. Joker --- And the next most likely after that: 9. Bombshell 10. Ford v. Ferrari 11. The Report (not on the poll, being underestimated here) 12. Parasite 13. The Two Popes 14. Waves (also should be an option here) 15. The Farewell 16. Rocketman 17. Dark Waters (still too much of an unknown, idk) Parasite at 12????????? Don’t totally get where all the confidence in it is coming from. Still seems very much like a dark horse to me. I’ll believe it when I see it. That said I’ve been predicting Bong to get into Director for months now and I think it’ll get a Screenplay nod as well.
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Post by Sharbs on Nov 10, 2019 6:52:25 GMT
1917 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood The Farewell The Irishman Joker Little Women Marriage Story Parasite Waves
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 10, 2019 7:04:20 GMT
1. Marriage Story 2. The Irishman 3. 1917 4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 6. Parasite 7. Little Women 8. The Farewell 9. The Two Popes
and if there's a 10th, I guess Ford v. Ferrari
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2019 2:53:23 GMT
Don’t totally get where all the confidence in it is coming from. Still seems very much like a dark horse to me. I’ll believe it when I see it. That said I’ve been predicting Bong to get into Director for months now and I think it’ll get a Screenplay nod as well. - Won the Palme - Second runner up at TIFF - 95 on Metacritic - Killing it at the box office (biggest PTA this year) - Everyone and their dog loves it - Big industry people like Al Pacino have gone out of their way to praise it
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Post by quetee on Nov 11, 2019 2:57:16 GMT
Don’t totally get where all the confidence in it is coming from. Still seems very much like a dark horse to me. I’ll believe it when I see it. That said I’ve been predicting Bong to get into Director for months now and I think it’ll get a Screenplay nod as well. - Won the Palme - Second runner up at TIFF - 95 on Metacritic - Killing it at the box office (biggest PTA this year) - Everyone and their dog loves it - Big industry people like Al Pacino have gone out of their way to praise it It would have to make way more box office then $20 mil. Life Is Beautiful was probably the closest foreign film that had a shot at winning bp.
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Post by DeepArcher on Nov 11, 2019 3:27:13 GMT
Don’t totally get where all the confidence in it is coming from. Still seems very much like a dark horse to me. I’ll believe it when I see it. That said I’ve been predicting Bong to get into Director for months now and I think it’ll get a Screenplay nod as well. - Won the Palme - Second runner up at TIFF - 95 on Metacritic - Killing it at the box office (biggest PTA this year) - Everyone and their dog loves it - Big industry people like Al Pacino have gone out of their way to praise it Korea has also never even gotten a nomination in the Foreign/International category, despite putting out many incredibly well-acclaimed movies in the last twenty or so years in particular. While that’s obviously gonna end this year, it’s hard to believe they’ll leapfrog all the way up to a BP nomination. It’s always a huge uphill battle for a non-English language film to get into the BP lineup — Parasite should theoretically have the legs to get it there, on paper, but I also genuinely think people are underestimating how much the Academy neglects international films in its major categories.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2019 3:28:51 GMT
- Won the Palme - Second runner up at TIFF - 95 on Metacritic - Killing it at the box office (biggest PTA this year) - Everyone and their dog loves it - Big industry people like Al Pacino have gone out of their way to praise it It would have to make way more box office then $20 mil. Life Is Beautiful was probably the closest foreign film that had a shot at winning bp. I would say Roma got pretty damn close, plus $20 mil for a Korean film in limited release is insanely impressive. Needing a big box office isn't essential to getting nominated for/winning BP, just one of the many factors that are in Parasite's favour.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2019 3:30:06 GMT
- Won the Palme - Second runner up at TIFF - 95 on Metacritic - Killing it at the box office (biggest PTA this year) - Everyone and their dog loves it - Big industry people like Al Pacino have gone out of their way to praise it Korea has also never even gotten a nomination in the Foreign/International category, despite putting out many incredibly well-acclaimed movies in the last twenty or so years in particular. While that’s obviously gonna end this year, it’s hard to believe they’ll leapfrog all the way up to a BP nomination. It’s always a huge uphill battle for a non-English language film to get into the BP lineup — Parasite should theoretically have the legs to get it there, on paper, but I also genuinely think people are underestimating how much the Academy neglects international films in its major categories.Roma last year kind of negates this whole point. Picture, Director, Actress and a completely out of the blue Supporting Actress nod. Plus Cold War getting into Director as well.
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Post by DeepArcher on Nov 11, 2019 3:37:56 GMT
Korea has also never even gotten a nomination in the Foreign/International category, despite putting out many incredibly well-acclaimed movies in the last twenty or so years in particular. While that’s obviously gonna end this year, it’s hard to believe they’ll leapfrog all the way up to a BP nomination. It’s always a huge uphill battle for a non-English language film to get into the BP lineup — Parasite should theoretically have the legs to get it there, on paper, but I also genuinely think people are underestimating how much the Academy neglects international films in its major categories.Roma last year kind of negates this whole point. Not really, I think. For one, it didn’t win BP despite being the presumed frontrunner heading into the night, and I find it hard to believe that its status as a non-English language film didn’t play into that. More importantly, it was a Netflix film that people could watch in their own homes. International films don’t get multiplex releases in the States and generally don’t draw audiences — and while Parasite’s had good box office numbers, there’s little doubt in my mind that it’s still only been seen by a fraction of the people who watched Roma on Netflix. Not to mention, Netflix had a monster campaign for it that I’m pretty sure Neon wouldn’t be able pull off at all. And there are factors I could mention — Roma was a flashier product, Cuaròn was a previous winner, it had a narrative that Parasite just doesn’t have, etc. The point is: Roma’s the exception here, not the rule. I don’t at all believe its relative success is evidence that the Academy is becoming more accepting of international film, and if such a trend does start to occur, it’ll likely be the result of international films getting increased exposure on streaming services than anything else.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 11, 2019 3:42:16 GMT
Roma last year kind of negates this whole point. Not really, I think. For one, it didn’t win BP despite being the presumed frontrunner heading into the night, and I find it hard to believe that its status as a non-English language film didn’t play into that. More importantly, it was a Netflix film that people could watch in their own homes. International films don’t get multiplex releases in the States and generally don’t draw audiences — and while Parasite’s had good box office numbers, there’s little doubt in my mind that it’s still only been seen by a fraction of the people who watched Roma on Netflix. Not to mention, Netflix had a monster campaign for it that I’m pretty sure Neon wouldn’t be able pull off at all. And there are factors I could mention — Roma was a flashier product, Cuaròn was a previous winner, it had a narrative that Parasite just doesn’t have, etc. The point is: Roma’s the exception here, not the rule. I don’t at all believe its relative success is evidence that the Academy is becoming more accepting of international film, and if such a trend does start to occur, it’ll likely be the result of international films getting increased exposure on streaming services than anything else. Just to be clear I'm fully confident in the nomination not the win, I'd say it is somewhere in the Top 6 at least though. Also, unless I'm just totally remembering things wrong, I feel like most people thought Green Book was going to win going into the night. I also have seen a lot more people in person and online talk about Parasite then I did last year for Roma.
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Post by quetee on Nov 11, 2019 3:45:24 GMT
It would have to make way more box office then $20 mil. Life Is Beautiful was probably the closest foreign film that had a shot at winning bp. I would say Roma got pretty damn close, plus $20 mil for a Korean film in limited release is insanely impressive. Needing a big box office isn't essential to getting nominated for/winning BP, just one of the many factors that are in Parasite's favour. Box office doesn't matter when it comes to a nod but I can't see the academy giving bp win to a foreign movie that doesn't make a major impact at the box office. 22 years ago Life Is beautiful made 60mil just here and it was not a niche movie. Right now, Parasite, it still pretty niche. I do however, believe that it will score a bp nod cause I think it is making more of a impact in comparison to Roma. Roma had the critic darling support but not the audience rating support. Right now, Parasite appears to have both.
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