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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 26, 2019 19:03:37 GMT
2017 rivals who reappeared in 2018 too.
Each going for it this year - and each is somewhat held back - I haven't seen Jojo but Rockwell may miss out for his co-star (?) and Dafoe who is aces in The Lighthouse may not be able to even get into the stacked BSA category at all - and arguably he's lead too which is also touch to crack.
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Post by quetee on Oct 26, 2019 19:11:05 GMT
I wouldn't be able to handle another Dafoe nod loss combo. So I would rather he miss.
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 26, 2019 19:17:21 GMT
Such a strong year idk if Rockwell will make any waves, but Dafoe on the other hand.... Altho I consider him Lead.... if the voters buy Supporting and especially if SAG noms him then I say he's def in. I don't get a sense people are tired of him yet, his Van Gogh nom was a big surprise and proves the actors branch loves him, and The Lighthouse while not Oscar friendly is making its rounds and I can see it getting one or two tech nods along with Dafoe.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Oct 26, 2019 23:55:13 GMT
Not having seen the film I'm rooting for Dafoe. Shadow of the Vampire, At Eternity's Gate, The Lighthouse... that's quite a singular Oscar trajectory if it happens, kind of unheard of. If only he had been nominated for The Last Temptation of Christ as well.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 27, 2019 0:23:10 GMT
I voted neither, but I guess one could make it. I don't see both being able to make in though.
Right now just having seen The Lighthouse, I think Dafoe has the better chance since Rockwell has won recently, and I think his role is more showy even if Jojo Rabbit is more awards friendly. If Richard Jewell turns out to be something, then I would say that hurts Dafoe's chances because Rockwell could potentially have two strong films, and at least in the trailer, it looks like he has a pretty significant role after Paul Walter Hauser.
Probably neither in the end though. Pacino and Pitt look to be the frontrunners. The Two Popes keeps scooping up festival prizes, and so far it seems like no one really hates it. Hanks could miss again, but it feels like it might be finally time for him to get another nomination since he's also receiving the Cecil B. Demille award this year, and Mr. Rogers is so iconic. Then, Pesci feels like he'll have a lot of passion behind him. Foxx might show up at SAG, and he's going to campaign. Then, there's beloved veterans like Alda and Lithgow who would probably coattail in weaker years.
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Post by stephen on Oct 27, 2019 0:25:12 GMT
Having seen it today, I really think Dafoe could sneak another nod. It's definitely outside the Academy's wheelhouse, even more than his last two outings (which netted him solo nods), but it is by far his most "Acting with a capital A" performance (of his career?) and my audience absolutely ate him everything he was doing and saying. If A24 campaigns him enough, I think he could get by on sheer goodwill and showiness of the role. His winner equity is low just by virtue of it being unfriendly, but a nomination is not outside the realm of possibility.
Can't see Rockwell getting in. Isn't most of the attention on Waititi in that category anyway?
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Oct 27, 2019 9:40:11 GMT
Neither, really
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 27, 2019 12:55:21 GMT
I'd love Dafoe to win an Oscar but I don't see him getting a nod.
Rockwell doesn't have a chance.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2019 21:10:56 GMT
I'm betting on neither, but if Dafoe gets in it'll be one of the best oscar noms in history
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 28, 2019 17:37:37 GMT
Must remember to bookmark this thread - no one thinks Rockwell is getting nodded despite 2 late season releases one of which is a Clint film? Hmmmmm......... I dunno I wouldn't put it past him myself....
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 28, 2019 17:52:05 GMT
Must remember to bookmark this thread - no one thinks Rockwell is getting nodded despite 2 late season releases one of which is a Clint film? Hmmmmm......... I dunno I wouldn't put it past him myself.... I think most would agree that Rockwell can get nominated; they just don't think it's likely. Again, there are only 5 slots and this is a strong year for the category. Pitt Pacino Hanks Hopkins Pesci Foxx Dafoe Rockwell That seems to be the consensus right now (even though I have Foxx over Pesci). Who do you think Rockwell is likely to push out from the top 5 (or 6)? |
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 28, 2019 18:01:13 GMT
Must remember to bookmark this thread - no one thinks Rockwell is getting nodded despite 2 late season releases one of which is a Clint film? Hmmmmm......... I dunno I wouldn't put it past him myself.... I think most would agree that Rockwell can get nominated; they just don't think it's likely. Again, there are only 5 slots and this is a strong year for the category. Pitt Pacino Hanks Hopkins Pesci Foxx Dafoe Rockwell That seems to be the consensus right now (even though I have Foxx over Pesci). Who do you think Rockwell is likely to push out from the top 5 (or 6)? Yeah I don't think it's likely either but I thought it more evenly matched for the poll at least. I'm not necessarily sure on Foxx ........so Hopkins/Pesci would perhaps be relatively vulnerable - though those top 5 would match my picks also. Maybe it's just that people have seen Dafoe now and not as much Rockwell yet.......I mean "neither" is doing pretty well in this poll.......  |
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 28, 2019 18:16:38 GMT
Dafoe seems much more likely to be in the nominees group than Rockwell. And in my opinion, if he does, then Pesci is out.
Pitt, Pacino, Hanks and Hopkins look certain for a nod.
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Post by stephen on Oct 28, 2019 18:18:59 GMT
Must remember to bookmark this thread - no one thinks Rockwell is getting nodded despite 2 late season releases one of which is a Clint film? Hmmmmm......... I dunno I wouldn't put it past him myself.... I think most would agree that Rockwell can get nominated; they just don't think it's likely. Again, there are only 5 slots and this is a strong year for the category. Pitt Pacino Hanks Hopkins Pesci Foxx Dafoe Rockwell That seems to be the consensus right now (even though I have Foxx over Pesci). Who do you think Rockwell is likely to push out from the top 5 (or 6)? I'm thinking that one of the "sure five" misses out. My gut says Pesci; Pacino will have the lion's share of the attention, Netflix will emphasize him because unlike The Pesh, he will actually campaign for it and they won't risk vote-splitting at the final hurdle against Pitt. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 28, 2019 18:29:28 GMT
I'm thinking that one of the "sure five" misses out. My gut says Pesci; Pacino will have the lion's share of the attention, Netflix will emphasize him because unlike The Pesh, he will actually campaign for it and they won't risk vote-splitting at the final hurdle against Pitt. Yeah, not sure what the incentive would be for Netflix to push Pesci. Pesci doesn't give a shit and may not even show up anywhere, and he's going back to his retirement. A nomination for Pesci won't give The Irishman any (significant) additional attention. And prioritizing Pacino (and only Pacino) could increase his chances of winning. I think Foxx's role is very baity and he's going to be willing to play the game. I'm just going to predict him to be nominated if he hits SAG. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 28, 2019 18:34:51 GMT
I'm thinking that one of the "sure five" misses out. My gut says Pesci; Pacino will have the lion's share of the attention, Netflix will emphasize him because unlike The Pesh, he will actually campaign for it and they won't risk vote-splitting at the final hurdle against Pitt. Yeah, not sure what the incentive would be for Netflix to push Pesci. Pesci doesn't give a shit and may not even show up anywhere, and he's going back to his retirement. A nomination for Pesci won't give The Irishman any (significant) additional attention. And prioritizing Pacino (and only Pacino) could increase his chances of winning. I think Foxx's role is very baity and he's going to be willing to play the game. I'm just going to predict him to be nominated if he hits SAG. Yeah. I think the only way Pesci figures into the final tally is if he starts scooping up prizes on his own. I can see him winning a random "Big 3" critics' prize (NYFCC?), but I don't think Netflix would risk undercutting Pacino if he actually has a shot at winning over Pitt. But then that leads me to wonder: would they slack off on Hopkins as well and put all their chips in on Pacino? The Two Popes seems like it's a major crowd-pleaser, but if it doesn't actually have a shot to win when they've got two presumed frontrunners in The Irishman and Marriage Story, would they bother risking it for anything beyond, say, BAFTA?
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 28, 2019 18:36:57 GMT
Must remember to bookmark this thread - no one thinks Rockwell is getting nodded despite 2 late season releases one of which is a Clint film? Hmmmmm......... I dunno I wouldn't put it past him myself.... I think most would agree that Rockwell can get nominated; they just don't think it's likely. Again, there are only 5 slots and this is a strong year for the category. Pitt Pacino Hanks Hopkins Pesci Foxx Dafoe Rockwell That seems to be the consensus right now (even though I have Foxx over Pesci). Who do you think Rockwell is likely to push out from the top 5 (or 6)? Exactly. I did say this about Rockwell, . Without knowing if Richard Jewell is going to be another American Sniper or even Million Dollar Baby that comes into award season late and ends up winning BP, or another miss for Eastwood, I went the safe route and voted neither because of the consensus 5 being pretty strong (Pacino, Pitt, Hanks, Hopkins, Pesci) and then also having Foxx, Alda, and Lithgow also in the running. It does seem like Rockwell has a very prominent role in Richard Jewell, and I would expect unless Hauser really amazes everyone that Rockwell and Bates have the best chances at getting any kind of nominations out of the cast. While I don't think it will be a miss like The Mule was critically, I think commercially it could do worse because Eastwood is only directing, and unlike American Sniper, I'm not sure if middle America will be as interested in a movie about Richard Jewell that doesn't have a star like Bradley Cooper in it. So I think in the end, it probably won't get much awards traction. |
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Post by Good God on Oct 28, 2019 18:41:06 GMT
Yeah. I think the only way Pesci figures into the final tally is if he starts scooping up prizes on his own. I can see him winning a random "Big 3" critics' prize (NYFCC?), but I don't think Netflix would risk undercutting Pacino if he actually has a shot at winning over Pitt. But then that leads me to wonder: would they slack off on Hopkins as well and put all their chips in on Pacino? The Two Popes seems like it's a major crowd-pleaser, but if it doesn't actually have a shot to win when they've got two presumed frontrunners in The Irishman and Marriage Story, would they bother risking it for anything beyond, say, BAFTA?
If they have the dough (and by all accounts, they do), I think they're going to push Hopkins because Pacino seems pretty safe for the nomination (assuming Pesci doesn't steal his thunder) and it's not like Hopkins will be competing against Pacino for the 5th slot in Supporting Actor and only one of them can make it in. After nominations, I think they're going to put everything they've got on Pacino and ignore Hopkins (if they both get nominated). This reasoning, however, doesn't apply to Pryce. I think both De Niro and Pryce are fighting to be nominated, and pushing one will hurt the chances for the other. If Netflix thinks De Niro is more likely to be nominated than Pryce, I can imagining them slacking off on Pryce a little. Or maybe they're going to be confident and give them both strong pushes, who knows, but I think The Irishman getting great notices hurt Pryce the most. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 28, 2019 18:46:08 GMT
Yeah, not sure what the incentive would be for Netflix to push Pesci. Pesci doesn't give a shit and may not even show up anywhere, and he's going back to his retirement. A nomination for Pesci won't give The Irishman any (significant) additional attention. And prioritizing Pacino (and only Pacino) could increase his chances of winning. I think Foxx's role is very baity and he's going to be willing to play the game. I'm just going to predict him to be nominated if he hits SAG. Yeah. I think the only way Pesci figures into the final tally is if he starts scooping up prizes on his own. I can see him winning a random "Big 3" critics' prize (NYFCC?), but I don't think Netflix would risk undercutting Pacino if he actually has a shot at winning over Pitt. But then that leads me to wonder: would they slack off on Hopkins as well and put all their chips in on Pacino? The Two Popes seems like it's a major crowd-pleaser, but if it doesn't actually have a shot to win when they've got two presumed frontrunners in The Irishman and Marriage Story, would they bother risking it for anything beyond, say, BAFTA?
It does seem odd that Netflix has put The Two Popes into the Drama category instead of Comedy/Musical at the Globes imo. Of course, the Globes can go against what the studio wants, and The Two Popes might end up there anyways, but at least for me I think The Two Popes and Pryce had an easier road to winning in the Comedy/Musical category. I understand that the Drama category is considered more prestigious to be nominated in, but I'd rather have a win in Comedy/Musical over just a Drama nomination. So maybe Netflix doesn't think that The Two Popes or Pryce would have won that easily? Or perhaps they don't want it to interfere with The Irishman and Marriage Story, so they're putting it in the same category figuring that their top two choices will end up rising to the top anyways in the end, and if one possibly doesn't then The Two Popes could be a backup? I don't know, but it seems odd to me because I do think that Pryce had a narrow road to victory over Phoenix and Driver if The Two Popes would have went Comedy/Musical. He could have won the Globe, and potentially been a spoiler at BAFTA, which could have caused a fractured race leading to his win. As it is now though, I expect that Phoenix will probably sweep, perhaps Driver, but that seems less likely now because of Joker being such a box office phenomenon and Driver only having been acting for a short time compared to Phoenix. |
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 28, 2019 18:49:10 GMT
Yeah, not sure what the incentive would be for Netflix to push Pesci. Pesci doesn't give a shit and may not even show up anywhere, and he's going back to his retirement. A nomination for Pesci won't give The Irishman any (significant) additional attention. And prioritizing Pacino (and only Pacino) could increase his chances of winning. I think Foxx's role is very baity and he's going to be willing to play the game. I'm just going to predict him to be nominated if he hits SAG. Yeah. I think the only way Pesci figures into the final tally is if he starts scooping up prizes on his own. I can see him winning a random "Big 3" critics' prize (NYFCC?), but I don't think Netflix would risk undercutting Pacino if he actually has a shot at winning over Pitt. But then that leads me to wonder: would they slack off on Hopkins as well and put all their chips in on Pacino? The Two Popes seems like it's a major crowd-pleaser, but if it doesn't actually have a shot to win when they've got two presumed frontrunners in The Irishman and Marriage Story, would they bother risking it for anything beyond, say, BAFTA?
That's probably the conundrum inside the Netflix awards team right now, do they slide away the smaller but well liked well acted pics (Two Popes, Dolemite) or do they take them some way for potential prizes to highlight them in their own right? or a happy between, take it a step at a time, for example if Murphy starts picking up awards they can push him more. Actually..... money isn't a problem for them, like how a studio might cut costs, so they might just run big campaigns across the board.... |
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