morton
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Post by morton on Oct 10, 2019 19:28:31 GMT
I expect that there will still be a streaming bias from some voters, but imo this is a positive sign that streaming is the next step in the film industry. Perhaps theaters and streaming will be able to co-exist together, but I imagine a future where the tentpole movies get released in theaters and other special things, but that most of studios' other fare will be available for streaming right away.
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Post by quetee on Oct 10, 2019 19:32:34 GMT
I expect that there will still be a streaming bias from some voters, but imo this is a positive sign that streaming is the next step in the film industry. Perhaps theaters and streaming will be able to co-exist together, but I imagine a future where the tentpole movies get released in theaters and other special things, but that most of studios' other fare will be available for streaming right away. i wonder how this will affect privacy. Cant someone just hack server?
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Oct 10, 2019 21:01:27 GMT
i wonder how this will affect privacy. Cant someone just hack server? Way easier to nick DVDs than to hack servers.
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Post by quetee on Oct 23, 2019 6:46:04 GMT
October is almost over...
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 23, 2019 14:44:43 GMT
I can see preferential balloting favoring Marriage Story. It's not a polarizing film to get lower rankings. AMPAS also seems to have gotten away from the epic Best Picture winners. The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars. Then why have Marriage Story in your poll???
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 23, 2019 16:32:37 GMT
The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars. Then why have Marriage Story in your poll??? Because 10 people voted for it. The poll taker isn’t polling himself.
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Post by quetee on Oct 23, 2019 16:50:50 GMT
The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars. Then why have Marriage Story in your poll??? this is the board's monthly poll. The person who usually does it is m.i.a and we need to keep things moving. This is how we see rhe race as of oct. The only time something falls off list is if we stop voting for it.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 28, 2019 20:07:14 GMT
New article from LA Times with a sampling of what some pundits are predicting. (Not just about Best Picture, but of all the top 8 categories plus Best Foreign Language Film and Best Animated Feature, but since BP is the top prize I put it here.) Some observations: -A few of these are pretty bad. Like I don't know if Justin Chang is serious or just predicting what he likes. Best Picture - From this small sampling, it looks like they think it's going to be The Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with Marriage Story also having a chance. Best Director - Most have Noah Baumbach in which I think is a good sign since he seems like he could be the shakiest out of the consensus 5. I think they're all overestimating Pedro Almodovar though. Best Actor - Wow they are really overestimating Antonio Banderas. I thought maybe a nomination would be a stretch, but some actually think he can win?!? In another year, maybe, but definitely not this year. Best Actress - Justin Chang seems to be in his own world as I mentioned, but interesting that he doesn't have Johansson here despite predicting Driver and Dern in their respective categories. I know that missing the Gotham Film Awards doesn't mean anything, but I do feel like she's not even second now but third behind Zellweger and Theron. Of course, she can come back when Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit are both widely released. Also looks like Zellweger is the run away favorite, and I predict that she'll sweep even though she's already won before. And maybe watch out for Nyong'o at LAFCA or Woodard since she's technically on more ballots than Nyong'o, but Glenn Whipp singled out the former. Best Supporting Actor - Dafoe shows up on quite a few ballots. Best Supporting Actress - I really don't get all the faith in Bening still. The Report didn't even show up anywhere at the Gothams, and I don't really think Amazon is doing much this season. Other than that I do agree with their faith in Dern winning. Best Adapted Screenplay - Looks to be The Irishman vs. The Two Popes according to these pundits. Best Original Screenplay - I thought most pundits would mention that they think it's between OUATIH and Marriage Story, but I was surprised by the few that think it's actually between Marriage Story and Parasite.
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Post by quetee on Oct 28, 2019 20:11:14 GMT
New article from LA Times with a sampling of what some pundits are predicting. (Not just about Best Picture, but of all the top 8 categories plus Best Foreign Language Film and Best Animated Feature, but since BP is the top prize I put it here.) Some observations: -A few of these are pretty bad. Like I don't know if Justin Chang is serious or just predicting what he likes. Best Picture - From this small sampling, it looks like they think it's going to be The Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with Marriage Story also having a chance. Best Director - Most have Noah Baumbach in which I think is a good sign since he seems like he could be the shakiest out of the consensus 5. I think they're all overestimating Pedro Almodovar though. Best Actor - Wow they are really overestimating Antonio Banderas. I thought maybe a nomination would be a stretch, but some actually think he can win?!? In another year, maybe, but definitely not this year. Best Actress - Justin Chang seems to be in his own world as I mentioned, but interesting that he doesn't have Johansson here despite predicting Driver and Dern in their respective categories. I know that missing the Gotham Film Awards doesn't mean anything, but I do feel like she's not even second now but third behind Zellweger and Theron. Of course, she can come back when Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit are both widely released. Also looks like Zellweger is the run away favorite, and I predict that she'll sweep even though she's already won before. And maybe watch out for Nyong'o at LAFCA or Woodard since she's technically on more ballots than Nyong'o, but Glenn Whipp singled out the former. Best Supporting Actor - Dafoe shows up on quite a few ballots. Best Supporting Actress - I really don't get all the faith in Bening still. The Report didn't even show up anywhere at the Gothams, and I don't really think Amazon is doing much this season. Other than that I do agree with their faith in Dern winning. Best Adapted Screenplay - Looks to be The Irishman vs. The Two Popes according to these pundits. Best Original Screenplay - I thought most pundits would mention that they think it's between OUATIH and Marriage Story, but I was surprised by the few that think it's actually between Marriage Story and Parasite. most of them are clueless. The majority thought Roma was gonna win so...
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 28, 2019 23:12:11 GMT
For now I’d rank the top 5 as:
1: OUATIH 2: The Irishman 3: 1917 4: Jojo Rabbit 5: Marriage Story
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Post by quetee on Oct 28, 2019 23:57:27 GMT
So what happened? The ranking changed.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 7, 2020 21:28:34 GMT
I can see preferential balloting favoring Marriage Story. It's not a polarizing film to get lower rankings. AMPAS also seems to have gotten away from the epic Best Picture winners. Ouch!
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