Javi
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Post by Javi on Oct 1, 2019 0:46:12 GMT
I can't quite picture a complete Netflix domination (yet), so for now...
Picture: Once Upon a Time... Director: Scorsese (this split seems weird, but with the preferential ballot maybe not so much) Actor: Phoenix* Actress: Johansson Supporting Actor: Pitt Supporting Actress: Dern Original Screenplay: Marriage Story Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman
*If Driver/Phoenix split precursors and Pryce takes BAFTA I'd probably switch to Pryce.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 1, 2019 0:52:06 GMT
Yeah, I think people may be defaulting to Dern, because they don't want to believe that the most obvious choice at this point in time (J-Lo) could really happen. But unless someone else emerges very soon from the likes of Little Women or Bombshell, I think J-Lo could take this pretty easily, as a career capper for a great star career.
J-Lo is incredibly well liked in the industry. I was kind of shocked how well liked, when I saw her getting a 50th birthday well -wishers video this year. Felt like every celebrity on the planet was wishing her happy birthday. The video is insane in the turnout of well wishers, and kind of makes me think she can win easily (If she gets the nomination, which is the main hurdle. But it's a barren year in the category, so it should happen).
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thomasjerome
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Post by thomasjerome on Oct 1, 2019 0:55:31 GMT
So I gotta ask: why exactly is Dern the presumed frontrunner around here? I mean, I know many (myself included) had her penciled-in as frontrunner in the category before the film screened, but since it has I'm not sure why she's maintaining that position ... in all the praise for Marriage Story I haven't seen any individual notices for Dern, it sounds like Driver and Johansson take up the bulk of the screentime on their own, plus Dern hasn't even been featured in the trailers yet which sort of indicates that she maybe has a minor role. I know it's a big year for her and I think she's a shoo-in for a nomination based on that factor alone in addition to the film being a top contender sure to pull some coattail nominees behind it, but so far I haven't heard anything about Dern's performance that makes me think she is Oscar-win caliber. Maybe I am just missing the praise? Like, honestly, I could just be missing something, please tell me if I am ... maybe those who have seen it could weigh in and share some thoughts on her performance because, like I said, I haven't heard a peep. And I know Dern has the "overdue" narrative to her or whatever ... but Dern is like Dafoe to me in the sense that I think it's inevitable they both win in the next few years, there's no need to force it now for something not totally deserving... She supposedly has a strong monologue in the film about gender inequality ("Oscar clip" that is), Marriage Story is probably a Top 3 BP film, she also has "Little Women" upcoming, her category is waste-land and only supporting actress in a strong position is probably Jennifer Lopez whose film isn't as strong. As for her reviews, yes, the focus is on Adam and ScarJo but critics don't skip Dern: "played to savage perfection" (Hollywood Reporter), "electric" (Collider), "delight" (Consequence of Sound), "has been given some of the best lines" (Screen International), "mesmerising" (Indiewire), "pitch-perfect" (AV Club), "glorious" (Vox), "scene-stealing" (US Magazine), "phenomenal" (The Playlist), "fantastic" (Entertainment Weekly), "offering a brilliant, quietly carnivorous update of her character from Big Little Lies" (The Film Stage) etc etc.
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 1, 2019 0:58:28 GMT
So I gotta ask: why exactly is Dern the presumed frontrunner around here? I mean, I know many (myself included) had her penciled-in as frontrunner in the category before the film screened, but since it has I'm not sure why she's maintaining that position ... in all the praise for Marriage Story I haven't seen any individual notices for Dern, it sounds like Driver and Johansson take up the bulk of the screentime on their own, plus Dern hasn't even been featured in the trailers yet which sort of indicates that she maybe has a minor role. I know it's a big year for her and I think she's a shoo-in for a nomination based on that factor alone in addition to the film being a top contender sure to pull some coattail nominees behind it, but so far I haven't heard anything about Dern's performance that makes me think she is Oscar-win caliber. Maybe I am just missing the praise? Like, honestly, I could just be missing something, please tell me if I am ... maybe those who have seen it could weigh in and share some thoughts on her performance because, like I said, I haven't heard a peep. And I know Dern has the "overdue" narrative to her or whatever ... but Dern is like Dafoe to me in the sense that I think it's inevitable they both win in the next few years, there's no need to force it now for something not totally deserving... The answer is simple: who else would it be?
Well right now I’m predicting JLo, who obviously is far from a sure thing considering she won’t get any help from her studio and her film likely isn’t a contender outside of her category, but she has gotten universal praise so far that I haven’t at all seen for Dern. I reckon she’ll be the critic favorite of the season, and her name brand recognition alone can go a long way in a field this thin. Not to mention Laura Dern isn’t performing the Super Bowl halftime show last time I checked ... um ... don’t get me wrong, Dern has a strong narrative to her but Lopez’s “career renaissance” moment feels even stronger. And like I said, Dern will have plenty of more chances and I think the Academy is aware of that so there’s no need to force it ... you can’t assume that Lopez would have another chance like this again yet she’s someone who would be fun to award. I don’t know, the narrative makes a lot of sense to me to the point that the path looks pretty clear ... maybe not the most logical choice but my intuition is telling me otherwise. Beyond her ... there’s Bening in The Report who has a similar “overdue” narrative as Dern but also (I think) more individual notices in reviews. You have something like Little Women which has yet to premiere but has the potential to throw candidates into this race ... including Dern herself ... but most likely Florence Pugh who has gotten the most notices from the test screenings (after Ronan) and while actresses in her age group generally have better luck in the leading category, she’s in roughly the same stage of her career as Vikander was when she won (and even has the more acclaimed — probably — breakout role in the same year). Not saying we should assume she’ll be in the mix yet but we should consider that potential. Ana de Armas is sort of in the same vein as a potential spoiler with the “breakout” narrative, she’s gotten the most individual praise for Knives Out and while the film/role might not seem conducive to Oscar success, who’s to say she doesn’t start racking up nominations sheerly for recognition of the film’s ensemble. Now I’m not saying that any of these candidates are necessarily more likely then Dern, just saying that the field (while weak) isn’t quite that thin and new candidates could always emerge...
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 1, 2019 1:02:03 GMT
So I gotta ask: why exactly is Dern the presumed frontrunner around here? I mean, I know many (myself included) had her penciled-in as frontrunner in the category before the film screened, but since it has I'm not sure why she's maintaining that position ... in all the praise for Marriage Story I haven't seen any individual notices for Dern, it sounds like Driver and Johansson take up the bulk of the screentime on their own, plus Dern hasn't even been featured in the trailers yet which sort of indicates that she maybe has a minor role. I know it's a big year for her and I think she's a shoo-in for a nomination based on that factor alone in addition to the film being a top contender sure to pull some coattail nominees behind it, but so far I haven't heard anything about Dern's performance that makes me think she is Oscar-win caliber. Maybe I am just missing the praise? Like, honestly, I could just be missing something, please tell me if I am ... maybe those who have seen it could weigh in and share some thoughts on her performance because, like I said, I haven't heard a peep. And I know Dern has the "overdue" narrative to her or whatever ... but Dern is like Dafoe to me in the sense that I think it's inevitable they both win in the next few years, there's no need to force it now for something not totally deserving... I think it's a case of who else would it be since the category seems weak right now. I think Jennifer Lopez is pretty difficult to ignore. Iconic star, and has box office behind her as well. Could be another Sandra Bullock style coronation, but in supporting instead of lead.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 1, 2019 2:06:39 GMT
So I gotta ask: why exactly is Dern the presumed frontrunner around here? I mean, I know many (myself included) had her penciled-in as frontrunner in the category before the film screened, but since it has I'm not sure why she's maintaining that position ... in all the praise for Marriage Story I haven't seen any individual notices for Dern, it sounds like Driver and Johansson take up the bulk of the screentime on their own, plus Dern hasn't even been featured in the trailers yet which sort of indicates that she maybe has a minor role. I know it's a big year for her and I think she's a shoo-in for a nomination based on that factor alone in addition to the film being a top contender sure to pull some coattail nominees behind it, but so far I haven't heard anything about Dern's performance that makes me think she is Oscar-win caliber. Maybe I am just missing the praise? Like, honestly, I could just be missing something, please tell me if I am ... maybe those who have seen it could weigh in and share some thoughts on her performance because, like I said, I haven't heard a peep. And I know Dern has the "overdue" narrative to her or whatever ... but Dern is like Dafoe to me in the sense that I think it's inevitable they both win in the next few years, there's no need to force it now for something not totally deserving... She supposedly has a strong monologue in the film about gender inequality ("Oscar clip" that is), Marriage Story is probably a Top 3 BP film, she also has "Little Women" upcoming, her category is waste-land and only supporting actress in a strong position is probably Jennifer Lopez whose film isn't as strong. As for her reviews, yes, the focus is on Adam and ScarJo but critics don't skip Dern: "played to savage perfection" (Hollywood Reporter), "electric" (Collider), "delight" (Consequence of Sound), "has been given some of the best lines" (Screen International), "mesmerising" (Indiewire), "pitch-perfect" (AV Club), "glorious" (Vox), "scene-stealing" (US Magazine), "phenomenal" (The Playlist), "fantastic" (Entertainment Weekly), "offering a brilliant, quietly carnivorous update of her character from Big Little Lies" (The Film Stage) etc etc. Yeah, I think that all she needs is that one monologue that I kept reading about to clench it. Aside from the actresses that committed category fraud or borderline cases, I think many of the recent winners have that one scene or "hook" that clinches the Oscar for them. I believe it's also the easiest place to award Marriage Story an acting win, imo. Driver might lose to Phoenix, Pryce, or someone else like Ruffalo, and Johansson could possibly lose to Zellweger or a late contender like Ronan or Theron. Right now I feel Dern has the best odds because of all the weaknesses of the other contenders and the strength of her film. Like stephen said, really who else is going to win this category? I'm sorry I just don't buy it for Jennifer Lopez, and I think in a stronger year, she'd probably be snubbed like a Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike. It's not that she's not good, but at least for me I didn't see that one scene or "hook". She has a small moment at the end, but I think it's too short to clinch the win for her. Of course, she has her very memorable introduction, but even though the type of dancing she does in Hustlers is different than what she's done in the past, I think most voters are going to think that it's not much of a stretch for her since she started off as a dancer first before she became an actress and still has a show on dancing on television. Not to mention the fact that I think she's not taken that seriously as an actress combined with her making enemies back in the late 90s and 00s, so I think there's some baggage there that's going to be difficult to overcome for her to win just as it was for Burt Reynolds, Eddie Murphy, and Sylvester Stallone. In all of those cases, the person in the stronger film won over each of them, and with Hustlers likely just being nominated for Best Supporting Actress, I'm guessing that happens again this year. Could someone win outside of Dern or Lopez, maybe? However, there's not really anyone out there unless Zhao Shuzhen can overcome all the cons that she has like being an unknown actress for most voters, or if Bombshell actually is good and Robbie is nominated for that instead of for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Scarlett Johansson could possibly pull a Lange if they go for Zellweger in Best Actress, but voters want to give Zellweger a consolation prize. Possible, but I think getting two nominations would be enough of a reward for Johansson, and she'd be more like a Weaver or Moore type that was awarded for their banner year with two nominations but didn't win either category. There's Bening, but The Report might be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and even that's no guarantee since that category is pretty stacked. Plus Amazon chose to give a theatrical release to Honey Boy instead of The Report and The Aeronauts which seems to indicate that maybe they don't see either really having any awards prospect this year. I thought that maybe if Knives Out could at place at Toronto that maybe some of the actors there might have a chance, but it seems unlikely especially with Lionsgate's #1 push being Bombshell, and the possibility that Knives Out could do poorly at the box office given the first trailer that film twitter didn't seem to like. Aside from Bombshell the only unknowns for this category are Cats, Little Women, and The Ballad of Richard Jewell. I'm not expecting much from Cats especially after the first trailer got brutally mocked, and even without that, I'm not sure how actors are going to respond to the technology that it uses yet. Florence Pugh has gotten buzz and Streep is always a threat, but neither Amy nor Aunt March have ever been that baity. It's possible that Gerwig beefed up the roles. Even if that is the case, I doubt that Streep wins a fourth for it, and it's hard for me to believe a scenario where voters would go with Pugh as Amy March when a respected veteran like Laura Dern in possibly a top 3 film is right there. I have no clue about The Ballad of Richard Jewell like I would have predicted Dianne Wiest for The Mule if Best Supporting Actress last year were as weak as it seems this year, and I would have been totally wrong. So TBoRJ could easily be another miss for Eastwood, or it could surprise, but I have a feeling even if it does surprise that it will only extend to Paul Walter Hauser and maybe Sam Rockwell but none of the other actors will be in consideration. Plus again Kathy Bates is a previous winner, and while I could see her joining the two time club someday, I think voters would still rather award Dern her first unless Bates was undeniable.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Oct 1, 2019 13:49:26 GMT
The answer is simple: who else would it be?
Jennifer Lopez, maybe? I think the press and general audiences will really rally for her. This often happens with singer turned actors or actors also well known in areas because it’s easy way for pundits to get additional clicks. Saying Lady Gaga is a frontrunner will get her fans and general pop music fans to read their articles. According to them, Gaga was winning, Oprah was winning as well, they even tried to say Mariah Carey and Beyoncé were awards worthy in Dreamgirls and Precious. These sort of contenders tend to fall short of expectations set by the press and pundits. There’s a small path for Lopez, because the Globes have decided the acting categories for the most part in recent years and she’s their type. They love the sort of glitz and glamour that she’ll surely provide and you know she’ll campaign. But stats don’t favor her at all. Anyone else in a September film that’s likely going to be a lone nomination from a distributor with no awards history wouldn’t even be predicted in most years. Plus, if you look at Laura Dern and analyze her strengths as a contender.. She’s basically playing a slight variation of her BLL character that she won an Emmy for, so we already know that the industry responds well to her in this register.. Additionally, Marriage Story is the most acclaimed film of the year, and Dern herself is well connected and the sort of veteran character actress that we’ve seen win here quite a bit recently. She makes way more sense, even articles about her aren’t as appealing for the press to make. I think the fact that most would think of Lopez as a celebrity more than an actress before Hustlers is going to be a problem for her.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Oct 1, 2019 14:34:33 GMT
Marriage Story Martin Scorsese Adam Driver Renee Zellwegger Tom Hanks Laura Dern Marriage Story The Irishman
I’m really stuck on BP. As good as it may be, I find The Irishman is a film that some voters you’ll read in those honest Oscar ballots will say is too long or took too long to finish or that it’s not new ground for Scorsese and the way that the ballot voting is will give it a lot of #1 vote support, but it’s really the consistent #2 or #3 vote movies that end up taking it. Marriage Story has all the ingredients plus possible acting wins and is gonna appeal to the mass majority of voters.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 1, 2019 20:05:01 GMT
Yeah, I think people may be defaulting to Dern, because they don't want to believe that the most obvious choice at this point in time ( J-Lo) could really happen. But unless someone else emerges very soon from the likes of Little Women or Bombshell, I think J-Lo could take this pretty easily, as a career capper for a great star career. J-Lo is incredibly well liked in the industry. I was kind of shocked how well liked, when I saw her getting a 50th birthday well -wishers video this year. Felt like every celebrity on the planet was wishing her happy birthday. The video is insane in the turnout of well wishers, and kind of makes me think she can win easily (If she gets the nomination, which is the main hurdle. But it's a barren year in the category, so it should happen). Equating AMPAS to a birthday video, really??? I'm pretty sure Kim Kardashian is not an Oscar voter, lol
Marriage Story will be a much bigger Oscar player than Hustlers.
Laura Dern is way more respected in the industry and has a more impressive film career. She also comes from an acting family. She's been nominated twice, but has never won.
J-Lo can't act. Her films have been bombs. Worse than Sylvester Stallone, whom AMPAS snubbed in the end.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 2, 2019 2:35:19 GMT
Yeah, I think people may be defaulting to Dern, because they don't want to believe that the most obvious choice at this point in time ( J-Lo) could really happen. But unless someone else emerges very soon from the likes of Little Women or Bombshell, I think J-Lo could take this pretty easily, as a career capper for a great star career. J-Lo is incredibly well liked in the industry. I was kind of shocked how well liked, when I saw her getting a 50th birthday well -wishers video this year. Felt like every celebrity on the planet was wishing her happy birthday. The video is insane in the turnout of well wishers, and kind of makes me think she can win easily (If she gets the nomination, which is the main hurdle. But it's a barren year in the category, so it should happen). Equating AMPAS to a birthday video, really??? I'm pretty sure Kim Kardashian is not an Oscar voter,
Yeah, but Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Oprah, Tim Robbins, Lin Manuel Miranda, Tyler Perry, Will Smith, Mary J Blige, Reese Witherspoon, Barbara Streisand, Jane Fonda and Mark Walhberg are Oscar Voters, and they were all in that video smiling like chumps and wishing J-Lo happy birthday. I got no idea when Lopez became this universally liked, inoffensive star, but that video convinced me that she is one. You can't force people to do these videos if they actively dislike someone. Even among her peers in the film acting arena arena, no one seems to have a problem with her these days.. I'm guessing she's admired for her work ethic and longevity. You don't have to be considered a "great" actor to win an Oscar if you've been around forever and people like you. Lopez fits the bill for a "career Oscar".
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 2, 2019 2:56:14 GMT
Equating AMPAS to a birthday video, really??? I'm pretty sure Kim Kardashian is not an Oscar voter,
Yeah, but Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Oprah, Tim Robbins, Lin Manuel Miranda, Tyler Perry, Will Smith, Mary J Blige, Reese Witherspoon, Barbara Streisand, Jane Fonda and Mark Walhberg are Oscar Voters, and they were all in that video smiling like chumps and wishing J-Lo happy birthday. I got no idea when Lopez became this universally liked, inoffensive star, but that video convinced me that she is one. You can't force people to do these videos if they actively dislike someone. Even among her peers in the film acting arena arena, no one seems to have a problem with her these days.. I'm guessing she's admired for her work ethic and longevity. You don't have to be considered a "great" actor to win an Oscar if you've been around forever and people like you. Lopez fits the bill for a "career Oscar". Do you even know who Laura Dern is and her stature in the film industry??? The career Oscar would go to her.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 2, 2019 3:04:05 GMT
Yeah, but Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Oprah, Tim Robbins, Lin Manuel Miranda, Tyler Perry, Will Smith, Mary J Blige, Reese Witherspoon, Barbara Streisand, Jane Fonda and Mark Walhberg are Oscar Voters, and they were all in that video smiling like chumps and wishing J-Lo happy birthday. I got no idea when Lopez became this universally liked, inoffensive star, but that video convinced me that she is one. You can't force people to do these videos if they actively dislike someone. Even among her peers in the film acting arena arena, no one seems to have a problem with her these days.. I'm guessing she's admired for her work ethic and longevity. You don't have to be considered a "great" actor to win an Oscar if you've been around forever and people like you. Lopez fits the bill for a "career Oscar". J-LO cannot ACT. Her so-called acting career is JOKE. Her films are bombs.
Do you even know who Laura Dern is and her stature in the film industry???
I know full well who Laura Dern is. She,'s one of the finest American screen actresses of her generation, and I'm a fan. In acting talent, Dern is leagues above Lopez.But there is no real passion around Dern in Marriage Story. Driver and Johannson have the passion for that film, and Dern seems to be coattailing. Which may not be enough for the win. So I said what I said. J-Lo could eke out a career Oscar for being a long lasting industry stalwart. Look up your Oscar history. It happens.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 2, 2019 3:11:06 GMT
J-LO cannot ACT. Her so-called acting career is JOKE. Her films are bombs.
Do you even know who Laura Dern is and her stature in the film industry???
I know full well who Laura Dern is. She,'s one of the finest American screen actresses of her generation, and I'm a fan. In acting talent, Dern is leagues above Lopez.But there is no real passion around Dern in Marriage Story. Driver and Johannson have the passion for that film, and Dern seems to be coattailing. Which may not be enough for the win. So I said what I said. J-Lo could eke out a career Oscar for being a long lasting industry stalwart. Look up your Oscar history. It happens. Then why do all the pundits, oddsmakers have Laura Dern easily out in front to win this. She is seen as a closest to a lock of the acting categories. Long lasting industry stalwart? That easily describes Dern.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 2, 2019 3:17:40 GMT
I know full well who Laura Dern is. She,'s one of the finest American screen actresses of her generation, and I'm a fan. In acting talent, Dern is leagues above Lopez.But there is no real passion around Dern in Marriage Story. Driver and Johannson have the passion for that film, and Dern seems to be coattailing. Which may not be enough for the win. So I said what I said. J-Lo could eke out a career Oscar for being a long lasting industry stalwart. Look up your Oscar history. It happens. Then why do all the pundits, oddsmakers have Laura Dern easily out in front to win this. She is seen as a closest to a lock of the acting categories. Long lasting industry stalwart? That easily describes Dern. Yes, being an industry stalwart and awards favorite is probably the main reason why she's being predicted so hard. Because it's not because she had passionate reviews. She's being totally overshadowed by her movie"s lead actors in that sense. Lopez is an industry stalwart, has passionate reviews that cite her as her film's standout, and is in a movie that is making loads of money and really popular. Not saying that Lopez will win, but I can see why some would think she's the real favorite.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 2, 2019 3:31:39 GMT
Then why do all the pundits, oddsmakers have Laura Dern easily out in front to win this. She is seen as a closest to a lock of the acting categories. Long lasting industry stalwart? That easily describes Dern. Yes, being an industry stalwart is probably the main reason why she's being predicted do hard. Because it's not because she had passionate reviews. She's being totally overshadowed by her movie"s lead actors. Lopez is an industry stalwart, has passionate reviews that cite her as her film's standout, and is in a movie that is making loads of money and really popular. Not saying that Lopez will win, but I can see why some would think she's the real favorite. Laura Dern has a supporting role in the film. Her character is not the main focus of the film. But she has one big scene where she talks about the different expectations between mothers and fathers - that has been singled out as her Oscar moment. Variety calls it classic and sees her role just as memorable as the leads in the film. And it was reported she got applause for that scene at TIFF.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 2, 2019 3:59:36 GMT
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 2, 2019 8:09:50 GMT
Dern no doubt is gonna win this.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Oct 9, 2019 22:39:40 GMT
Still torn between Irishman and Once Upon A Time... I'll go with the latter Quentin Tarantino Phoenix, I don't think the controversy or 'bad reviews' will slow it down. This movie is a similar phenomenon that Bohemian Rhapsody was last year with Monday screenings getting sold out. Some HFPA members already like the movie. Johannson Pitt, really glad his performance is going to get rewarded. Some of the best acting I've seen Idk Dern Marriage Story The Irishman
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Oct 9, 2019 22:41:07 GMT
Marriage Story still seems like a critics thing only ala The Social Network and Boyhood so it makes sense everyone is overestimating it
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