Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 23:41:05 GMT
Eh. I doubt it bothers them enough to effect the outcome of an Oscar race. If he wins it will be because they liked his movie not because he only has the two writing wins. I think most people think Marty deserves more than the one. His ratio is way worse. Isn't that basically what I said?
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Post by pendragon on Sept 29, 2019 23:52:57 GMT
Best Score: ..... I honestly have no clue what even the contenders are here. Little help? Thomas Newman is scoring 1917. He's been nominated 14 times without a win and this could be the perfect opportunity for him. Some of the other nominees could be Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams), Little Women (Alexandre Desplat) and A Hidden Life (James Newton Howard).
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Post by mrimpossible on Sept 30, 2019 0:43:00 GMT
Best Picture- The Irishman Best Director- Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay- The Irishman Best Original Screenplay- Marriage Story Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix Best Actress - ScarJoBest Supporting Actor- Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress- Laura Dern I just don't see how Zellwegger has the film to counter ScarJo's which is going to have a lot of power and I don't see how Driver has an upfront role enough to beat Phoenix - male leads tend to be the whole show and now share it. Driver probably has the most acclaimed performance by an American male actor since Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. And having seen the film, it’s justified. He’s jaw dropping in it (far more than Phoenix’s strong but far less nuanced turn). And I know you don’t believe in PC culture or whatever, but the discourse around Joker is absolutely toxic right now. That’s going to have to change for Phoenix to win. I don't have a dog in this fight cause I haven't seen either movie. But wasn't the discourse around Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody also toxic? And those 2 movies were the biggest winners last season...
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Post by mattfincher on Sept 30, 2019 0:47:52 GMT
Driver probably has the most acclaimed performance by an American male actor since Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. And having seen the film, it’s justified. He’s jaw dropping in it (far more than Phoenix’s strong but far less nuanced turn). And I know you don’t believe in PC culture or whatever, but the discourse around Joker is absolutely toxic right now. That’s going to have to change for Phoenix to win. I don't have a dog in this fight cause I haven't seen either movie. But wasn't the discourse around Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody also toxic? And those 2 movies were the biggest winners last season... They got away with it because they were pandering crowdpleasers. Joker is straight up one of the most nihilistic and depressing mainstream movies released this decade. I'm not even sure people who love the movie (I'm mixed on it) would disagree on that.
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Post by mrimpossible on Sept 30, 2019 0:51:45 GMT
I don't have a dog in this fight cause I haven't seen either movie. But wasn't the discourse around Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody also toxic? And those 2 movies were the biggest winners last season... They got away with it because they were pandering crowdpleasers. Joker is straight up one of the most nihilistic and depressing mainstream movies released this decade. I'm not even sure people who love the movie (I'm mixed on it) would disagree on that. Ok that's different though. I thought you were talking about the controversy surrounding the film.
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Post by mattfincher on Sept 30, 2019 0:57:09 GMT
They got away with it because they were pandering crowdpleasers. Joker is straight up one of the most nihilistic and depressing mainstream movies released this decade. I'm not even sure people who love the movie (I'm mixed on it) would disagree on that. Ok that's different though. I thought you were talking about the controversy surrounding the film. Well I think those two things paired together just kind of create a negative energy around it. Most general audiences don’t want to go to the movies to just get depressed these days and then you add the media hysteria into that mix, and it’s just kind of a bad concoction. I’m curious what the broad response will be. I think it’s a technically well made movie, but I had a tough time with its morality (or lack thereof) and treatment of mental illness. I imagine those who view it through a more amoral lense will love it though, and I can’t argue with that. I usually do too, this one just whiffed really badly for me on a few things that I just couldn’t get over.
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Post by mrimpossible on Sept 30, 2019 1:07:13 GMT
Ok that's different though. I thought you were talking about the controversy surrounding the film. Well I think those two things paired together just kind of create a negative energy around it. Most general audiences don’t want to go to the movies to just get depressed these days and then you add the media hysteria into that mix, and it’s just kind of a bad concoction. I’m curious what the broad response will be. I think it’s a technically well made movie, but I had a tough time with its morality (or lack thereof) and treatment of mental illness. I imagine those who view it through a more amoral lense will love it though, and I can’t argue with that. I usually do too, this one just whiffed really badly for me on a few things that I just couldn’t get over. The box office can alleviate a lot of that. The problem with films that are bleak and negative is that people won't watch em when they find that out. Won't be the problem with Joker.
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Post by mattfincher on Sept 30, 2019 1:08:59 GMT
Well I think those two things paired together just kind of create a negative energy around it. Most general audiences don’t want to go to the movies to just get depressed these days and then you add the media hysteria into that mix, and it’s just kind of a bad concoction. I’m curious what the broad response will be. I think it’s a technically well made movie, but I had a tough time with its morality (or lack thereof) and treatment of mental illness. I imagine those who view it through a more amoral lense will love it though, and I can’t argue with that. I usually do too, this one just whiffed really badly for me on a few things that I just couldn’t get over. The box office can alleviate a lot of that. The problem with films that are bleak and negative is that people won't watch em when they find that out. Won't be the problem with Joker. It’s obviously going to open well, but I’m curious how audiences react. Cinemascore will be interesting. Even having seen it, I have no idea. Could be an A. Could be a C. Neither would surprise me.
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 30, 2019 1:25:21 GMT
Best Picture: The Irishman Best Director: Martin Scorsese Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson Best Supporting Actor: Tom Hanks Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez Best Original Screenplay: Marriage Story Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman
The Irishman seems almost too good to be true, but right not also kind of stupid to deny -- you gotta have to think there's something that can be used against it in the coming months to weaken its campaign, but when it's still sitting pretty at 100% on RT after many top critics have seen it, it's hard to think of what that may be. If Indiewire can't even find a way to sink it, it's hard to think of who would. Officially abandoning Beautiful Day as my BP prediction (at least for now...still a top contender that's been getting underestimated on here I think, though not placing at TIFF really hurt it to be fair) ... much of the reason I'd been riding that prediction is for its similarity to last year's BP winner, but on the flip side of that coin you gotta keep in mind that Green Book's win has been compared to Crash, and then remember what won after Crash... Netflix is sort of their own biggest competition this season with arguably the two biggest contenders right now, but it's hard to imagine that a "realistic" divorce movie (which probably remains the critics' circle favorite) plays better with general audiences than a Scorsese mob epic. And while the lack of a real theatrical release is always a question mark, the only thing that really matters is how it plays in the industry ... so while The Irishman could struggle to be a big deal with the average moviegoer (kinda think even that's unlikely though), it's gonna be a big deal for Hollywood no matter what.
The narrative of the film and television of this year -- the last year of the decade -- is all about "the end." We're surrounded by the grand finales for major pieces of culture, and The Irishman has that narrative imbedded into its very DNA. Not only a big last hurrah for basically an entire generation of cinema (with De Niro and Pacino each appearing in the year's other major films to literally pass on the torch to Phoenix and DiCaprio respectively), but also might as well give Netflix (who have largely defined the culture of the decade) their long-sought BP win before they push themselves into the ground by cancelling all their best content and ultimately just giving themselves away to Disney+ ... right now the narrative for The Irishman just feels right.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 30, 2019 6:54:27 GMT
Best Picture- The Irishman Best Director- Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay- The Irishman Best Original Screenplay- OUATIH Best Actor- Adam Driver Best Actress- Renee Zellweger (ScarJo? I dunno) Best Supporting Actor- Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress- Laura Dern
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Post by sirjeremy on Sept 30, 2019 8:32:54 GMT
Best Picture - The Irishman Best Director - Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay - JoJo Rabbit Best Original Screenplay - Marriage Story Best Actor - Adam Driver Best Actress - Saoirse Ronan Best Supporting Actor - Al Pacino Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 30, 2019 13:35:52 GMT
Pic: Marriage Story Alt: Hollywood
Director: Quinten Tarantino Alt: Martin Scorsese
Actor: Adam Driver Alt: Joaquin Phoenix
Actress: Renee Zellwegger Alt: Scarlett Johansson
Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt Alt: Al Pacino
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern Alt: Scarlett Johansson
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Alt: Marriage Story
Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman Alt: Jojo Rabbit
I’m rolling the dice in Actress.. on paper, an actress like Scarlett being in two BP nominees, with potential double noms should be running away with it, but I suspect Zellwegger may upset. I think Pitt is still in the drivers seat, he just has to win the Globe because SAG will most likely go with whoever wins there. I’m not even going to put Lopez as my alt, too much working against a win here imo. Director will be really exciting, I could that being an epic battle between QT and Scorsese. The only category I’m sure about here is Actor. Lovingly the unpredictability of the majority of the races so far.
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Post by stephen on Sept 30, 2019 14:11:03 GMT
Hmmm...
Best Picture: Marriage Story Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story Best Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The Irishman Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story Best Original Screenplay: Marriage Story Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman
I think ...Hollywood gets frosted out in the end, and the main reasons I opted for Phoenix over Driver is I feel that Phoenix has the veteran factor, the role is buzzier and flashier (not to say Driver isn't showy), and I just don't know if I see Netflix winning every prize in the Big 8, and I feel that if there's an upset, it would be there. I think ultimately, the Joker controversy won't hurt it in the face of its box office, and with Joaquin at least making some semblance of an effort to campaign, I can see support rallying to him. Still, it's a narrow divide and I could easily swap Driver out and put another winner for Best Actress -- I just think that if Netflix misses one of the Top 8, it would be in one of the leading categories.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 30, 2019 15:54:38 GMT
Hmmm... Best Picture: Marriage StoryBest Director: Martin Scorsese, The IrishmanBest Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, JokerBest Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage StoryBest Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The IrishmanBest Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage StoryBest Original Screenplay: Marriage StoryBest Adapted Screenplay: The IrishmanI think ...Hollywood gets frosted out in the end, and the main reasons I opted for Phoenix over Driver is I feel that Phoenix has the veteran factor, the role is buzzier and flashier (not to say Driver isn't showy), and I just don't know if I see Netflix winning every prize in the Big 8, and I feel that if there's an upset, it would be there. I think ultimately, the Joker controversy won't hurt it in the face of its box office, and with Joaquin at least making some semblance of an effort to campaign, I can see support rallying to him. Still, it's a narrow divide and I could easily swap Driver out and put another winner for Best Actress -- I just think that if Netflix misses one of the Top 8, it would be in one of the leading categories. I just don't think Phoenix is liked enough in Hollywood. Whereas Driver doesn't have Phoenix's bad reputation. And Marriage Story will be a bigger Oscar contender than Joker. The veteran vs the up and comer. Could be a repeat of the Keaton/Redmayne race. And it was Keaton's unpopularity in the Hollywood that cost him the Oscar.
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Post by stephen on Sept 30, 2019 16:02:07 GMT
Hmmm... Best Picture: Marriage StoryBest Director: Martin Scorsese, The IrishmanBest Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, JokerBest Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage StoryBest Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The IrishmanBest Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage StoryBest Original Screenplay: Marriage StoryBest Adapted Screenplay: The IrishmanI think ...Hollywood gets frosted out in the end, and the main reasons I opted for Phoenix over Driver is I feel that Phoenix has the veteran factor, the role is buzzier and flashier (not to say Driver isn't showy), and I just don't know if I see Netflix winning every prize in the Big 8, and I feel that if there's an upset, it would be there. I think ultimately, the Joker controversy won't hurt it in the face of its box office, and with Joaquin at least making some semblance of an effort to campaign, I can see support rallying to him. Still, it's a narrow divide and I could easily swap Driver out and put another winner for Best Actress -- I just think that if Netflix misses one of the Top 8, it would be in one of the leading categories. I just don't think Phoenix is liked enough in Hollywood. Whereas Driver doesn't have Phoenix's bad reputation. And Marriage Story will be a bigger Oscar contender than Joker. Phoenix doesn't really have a bad reputation, though. He's known as a loner and a bit of an oddball, but it's not like he's T.J. Miller. He's not much of a campaigner, but he's certainly making some sort of effort this year. And I'm already predicting Marriage Story to take Picture, Actress and Supporting Actress. For a film to win three acting prizes is exceedingly rare -- the Academy has been very much in a "spread the love" mood these last several years. I just don't know if I see Marriage Story joining the ranks of Streetcar or Network. And I feel a bit more confident in Phoenix because he is respected by his fellow actors; there are a lot of vocal supporters of his work in the industry. And Warner Bros. is pushing it hard. I still think Driver runs a bit young for the category. Yes, Redmayne won here, but he also had the baitiest of baity roles. Driver's work is getting sterling responses, but I still get the sense it's just going to be another notch in his belt on the way to the Oscar he'll likely receive one day, rather than the role that wins him the prize. But he's definitely in the thick of it, and it could go either way, as I said.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 30, 2019 16:09:17 GMT
Hmmm... Best Picture: Marriage StoryBest Director: Martin Scorsese, The IrishmanBest Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, JokerBest Actress: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage StoryBest Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The IrishmanBest Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage StoryBest Original Screenplay: Marriage StoryBest Adapted Screenplay: The IrishmanI think ...Hollywood gets frosted out in the end, and the main reasons I opted for Phoenix over Driver is I feel that Phoenix has the veteran factor, the role is buzzier and flashier (not to say Driver isn't showy), and I just don't know if I see Netflix winning every prize in the Big 8, and I feel that if there's an upset, it would be there. I think ultimately, the Joker controversy won't hurt it in the face of its box office, and with Joaquin at least making some semblance of an effort to campaign, I can see support rallying to him. Still, it's a narrow divide and I could easily swap Driver out and put another winner for Best Actress -- I just think that if Netflix misses one of the Top 8, it would be in one of the leading categories. I just don't think Phoenix is liked enough in Hollywood. Whereas Driver doesn't have Phoenix's bad reputation. And Marriage Story will be a bigger Oscar contender than Joker. The veteran vs and up and comer. Could be repeat of the Keaton/Redmayne race. And Keaton also wasn't popular in Hollywood. Phoenix doesn't have a "bad" reputation. He's considered a bit weird and anti-social, but that's easily written off in his profession as being an "artist". It's not like people think he's an outright asshole like Mel Gibson and Russell Crowe at certain points in their careers. He's respected in the industry, and actually pretty well connected. Former brother-in-law to Casey Affleck (so he's in with Ben 'n Matt). Phoenix is obviously one of those actors they will award at some point. He doesn't have to be cuddly or charming. Keaton (who also is dinged for being anti-social and anti-Hollywood, as opposed to being an outright asshole) did not have Phoenix's consistency. He was on the comeback trail after a pretty barren career for 20 years. It's not a similar situation.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 30, 2019 16:27:34 GMT
First time I hear Keaton had a bad rep in Hollywood...
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2019 16:30:43 GMT
Picture - The Irishman (Alt: Marriage Story) Director - Scorsese (Alt: Tarantino) Actor - Driver (Alt: Phoenix) Actress - Johansson (Alt: Zellweger) S. Actor - Pacino (Alt: Hanks) S. Actress - Dern (Alt: Lopez) O. Screenplay - OUATIH A. Screenplay - Irishman
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 30, 2019 16:34:29 GMT
First time I hear Keaton had a bad rep in Hollywood... I think he was just considered one of those guys that didn't socialise in Hollywood circles, which can get you a rep for being "snobby" (it hurt Al Pacino a lot in his younger days, as he was respected enough to be nominated, but never liked enough to win. Guys like DDL and Denzel seem to get away with being anti-social in Hollywood, but they seem more the exception). Keaton's only big Hollywood friend seems to be Jack Nicholson. But other than Jack, he doesn't seem to have many Hollywood friends.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 30, 2019 17:54:52 GMT
First time I hear Keaton had a bad rep in Hollywood... I think he was just considered one of those guys that didn't socialise in Hollywood circles, which can get you a rep for being "snobby" (it hurt Al Pacino a lot in his younger days, as he was respected enough to be nominated, but never liked enough to win. Guys like DDL and Denzel seem to get away with being anti-social in Hollywood, but they seem more the exception). Keaton's only big Hollywood friend seems to be Jack Nicholson. But other than Jack, he doesn't seem to have many Hollywood friends. I kind of believe this was something he chose. I think I've read he decided to "step aside" in the mid 90s as he felt he didn't belong in the Hollywood circles. Then again, maybe that was something the uthor of the artcile suggested and not Keaton quoted. I can't actually remember. Yeah, such a decision could spoil someone's rep for sure. And I really wanted him to win that Oscar back then...
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 30, 2019 18:07:36 GMT
I just don't think Phoenix is liked enough in Hollywood. Whereas Driver doesn't have Phoenix's bad reputation. And Marriage Story will be a bigger Oscar contender than Joker. The veteran vs and up and comer. Could be repeat of the Keaton/Redmayne race. And Keaton also wasn't popular in Hollywood. Phoenix doesn't have a "bad" reputation. He's considered a bit weird and anti-social, but that's easily written off in his profession as being an "artist". It's not like people think he's an outright asshole like Mel Gibson and Russell Crowe at certain points in their careers. He's respected in the industry, and actually pretty well connected. Former brother-in-law to Casey Affleck (so he's in with Ben 'n Matt). Phoenix is obviously one of those actors they will award at some point. He doesn't have to be cuddly or charming. Keaton (who also is dinged for being anti-social and anti-Hollywood, as opposed to being an outright asshole) did not have Phoenix's consistency. He was on the comeback trail after a pretty barren career for 20 years. It's not a similar situation. Well, Phoenix call the Oscars "bullshit". And he just got some bad press for walking out of an interview when he was asked about all the violence in Joker. The studio rep had to convince him to come back.
And Driver is gaining attention in the industry as a respected artist - someone whose star is rising. He shows up, supports the industry, makes himself accessible, is humble in interviews.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2019 19:54:47 GMT
*marriage story alt the irishman *tarantino alt scorsese *driver alt idk...pryce? (dicaprio isn't winning, and im kinda skeptical predicting phoenix for the win, joker seems more like a performance which gives the heavy overdue status phoenix needs to win in the future. he's not winning this time. driver seems good rn (i didnt get the impression of OSCAR from here but the people who have watched the movie apparently do so their word against mine here) but there seems to be someone else still not presented yet under our radars.) *ronan alt johansson (zellweger isnt winning, GAAAH wth even if the performance is undeniable in its own right it literally has nothing else going for it which johansson doesnt. zellweger isnt streep who'd win with a mid level movie like that all on her own. but if little women turns out great there really isnt much of an option since ronan on paper has much more going with her on paper. zellweger and johansson will get the welcome and welcome back nods but not much else, unless little women flops, in which case johansson seems good, with this being her banner year oscar wise) *pitt/pacino alt hanks (couldnt choose between pitt and pacino atm. we are kinda overestimating the irishman rn though, i feel. all its raves mainly established that it is in the main running, nowhere does it imply that it is the runaway winner of it all. any of scorsese and tarantino could win as of now, and whichever one wins, the supporting actor of their movie wins. if neither does then hanks does) *dern alt lopez for the lack of options (give me one "they was bad they did good here" performance that won the oscar in this decade whose film was in lopez's films condition in the oscar race. just one. gaga didnt, stallone didnt. leto? his film got a bp nomination and overperformed that night a bit anyway, getting all it could've realisitcally. hudson? dreamgirls had more nominations than any bp nominee. the love was there. if hustlers gets love like that then i might concede but the nature of the film suggests otherwise. also its our queen derns time.) *marriage story alt ouatih *the irishman alt a beautiful day? i don't really know this category that much.
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 1, 2019 0:34:01 GMT
So I gotta ask: why exactly is Dern the presumed frontrunner around here? I mean, I know many (myself included) had her penciled-in as frontrunner in the category before the film screened, but since it has I'm not sure why she's maintaining that position ... in all the praise for Marriage Story I haven't seen any individual notices for Dern, it sounds like Driver and Johansson take up the bulk of the screentime on their own, plus Dern hasn't even been featured in the trailers yet which sort of indicates that she maybe has a minor role. I know it's a big year for her and I think she's a shoo-in for a nomination based on that factor alone in addition to the film being a top contender sure to pull some coattail nominees behind it, but so far I haven't heard anything about Dern's performance that makes me think she is Oscar-win caliber. Maybe I am just missing the praise? Like, honestly, I could just be missing something, please tell me if I am ... maybe those who have seen it could weigh in and share some thoughts on her performance because, like I said, I haven't heard a peep.
And I know Dern has the "overdue" narrative to her or whatever ... but Dern is like Dafoe to me in the sense that I think it's inevitable they both win in the next few years, there's no need to force it now for something not totally deserving...
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Post by stephen on Oct 1, 2019 0:37:59 GMT
So I gotta ask: why exactly is Dern the presumed frontrunner around here? I mean, I know many (myself included) had her penciled-in as frontrunner in the category before the film screened, but since it has I'm not sure why she's maintaining that position ... in all the praise for Marriage Story I haven't seen any individual notices for Dern, it sounds like Driver and Johansson take up the bulk of the screentime on their own, plus Dern hasn't even been featured in the trailers yet which sort of indicates that she maybe has a minor role. I know it's a big year for her and I think she's a shoo-in for a nomination based on that factor alone in addition to the film being a top contender sure to pull some coattail nominees behind it, but so far I haven't heard anything about Dern's performance that makes me think she is Oscar-win caliber. Maybe I am just missing the praise? Like, honestly, I could just be missing something, please tell me if I am ... maybe those who have seen it could weigh in and share some thoughts on her performance because, like I said, I haven't heard a peep. And I know Dern has the "overdue" narrative to her or whatever ... but Dern is like Dafoe to me in the sense that I think it's inevitable they both win in the next few years, there's no need to force it now for something not totally deserving... The answer is simple: who else would it be?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2019 0:39:59 GMT
So I gotta ask: why exactly is Dern the presumed frontrunner around here? I mean, I know many (myself included) had her penciled-in as frontrunner in the category before the film screened, but since it has I'm not sure why she's maintaining that position ... in all the praise for Marriage Story I haven't seen any individual notices for Dern, it sounds like Driver and Johansson take up the bulk of the screentime on their own, plus Dern hasn't even been featured in the trailers yet which sort of indicates that she maybe has a minor role. I know it's a big year for her and I think she's a shoo-in for a nomination based on that factor alone in addition to the film being a top contender sure to pull some coattail nominees behind it, but so far I haven't heard anything about Dern's performance that makes me think she is Oscar-win caliber. Maybe I am just missing the praise? Like, honestly, I could just be missing something, please tell me if I am ... maybe those who have seen it could weigh in and share some thoughts on her performance because, like I said, I haven't heard a peep. And I know Dern has the "overdue" narrative to her or whatever ... but Dern is like Dafoe to me in the sense that I think it's inevitable they both win in the next few years, there's no need to force it now for something not totally deserving... The answer is simple: who else would it be?
Jennifer Lopez, maybe? I think the press and general audiences will really rally for her.
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