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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 29, 2019 22:19:44 GMT
Since nothing much will probably change until they screen 1917 and Little Women we might as well do this now to pass the time. I’ve got...
Best Picture- The Irishman Best Director- Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay- The Irishman Best Original Screenplay- Marriage Story Best Actor- Adam Driver Best Actress- Renee Zellweger Best Supporting Actor- Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress- Laura Dern
Bonus categories because I find them interesting:
Best Editing: The Irishman Best Cinematography: 1917 Best Score: ..... I honestly have no clue what even the contenders are here. Little help?
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 22:24:35 GMT
Best Picture- The Irishman Best Director- Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay- The Irishman Best Original Screenplay- Marriage Story Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix Best Actress - ScarJo Best Supporting Actor- Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress- Laura Dern
I just don't see how Zellwegger has the film to counter ScarJo's which is going to have a lot of power and I don't see how Driver has an upfront role enough to beat Phoenix - male leads tend to be the whole show and not share it.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Sept 29, 2019 22:29:09 GMT
Best Picture: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Director: Tarantino Actor: Phoenix Actress: Zellwegger Supporting Actor: Pitt Supporting Actress: Dern Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman Original Screenplay: Marriage Story
Would be thrilled if Scorsese won a second directing oscar though.
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Post by mattfincher on Sept 29, 2019 22:30:31 GMT
Best Picture- The Irishman Best Director- Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay- The Irishman Best Original Screenplay- Marriage Story Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix Best Actress - ScarJoBest Supporting Actor- Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress- Laura Dern I just don't see how Zellwegger has the film to counter ScarJo's which is going to have a lot of power and I don't see how Driver has an upfront role enough to beat Phoenix - male leads tend to be the whole show and now share it. Driver probably has the most acclaimed performance by an American male actor since Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. And having seen the film, it’s justified. He’s jaw dropping in it (far more than Phoenix’s strong but far less nuanced turn). And I know you don’t believe in PC culture or whatever, but the discourse around Joker is absolutely toxic right now. That’s going to have to change for Phoenix to win.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 29, 2019 22:35:34 GMT
Best Picture- The Irishman Best Director- Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay- The Irishman Best Original Screenplay- Marriage Story Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix Best Actress - ScarJoBest Supporting Actor- Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress- Laura Dern I just don't see how Zellwegger has the film to counter ScarJo's which is going to have a lot of power and I don't see how Driver has an upfront role enough to beat Phoenix - male leads tend to be the whole show and not share it. I think people here are greatly overestimating Joker’s Oscar potential and don’t expect it be a hit in any other category really which will hurt Phoenix. Best Actor has historically had a greater link to the BP category than Actress does. I also think Zellweger’s role and narrative will put her over the top.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 22:42:24 GMT
Best Picture: Marriage Story Best Director: Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman Best Original Screenplay: Marriage Story Best Actor: Adam Driver Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern
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Post by mattfincher on Sept 29, 2019 22:44:18 GMT
Having seen Marriage Story, Driver will win before Johansson. He dominates the second half of the movie and has a significant character arc that contains some of the best screen acting in recent memory. This is a performance that can and I think will win on merit alone.
As for Supporting Actor, I think everyone here knows I’d like to believe in Pitt, but the Oscars have burned me before. He has had a strong media presence and even though this forum seems to not like the movie, he did get reviews that were basically on par with his OUATIH reviews for Ad Astra. This is the most I’ve seen him referred to as one of the great working actor by the critics and media, and not just a movie star. Unfortunately, he’s in a hellscape of a field. I’ll say Pacino for now.
Dern is winning Supp. Actress easily. Lopez is no more than a glorified McConaughey in Magic Mike.
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Post by doddgerhardt on Sept 29, 2019 22:46:54 GMT
Best Picture-The Irishman Best Director-Martin Scorsese Best Actor-Adam Driver Best Actress-Renée Zellweger Best Supporting Actor-Al Pacino Best Supporting Actress-Laura Dern Original Screenplay-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adapted Screenplay-The Irishman
I don’t know if I see Phoenix making history with the Joker. Nomination seems likely and I’m not saying a win is impossible, but just not buying it yet.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Sept 29, 2019 22:47:53 GMT
Having seen Marriage Story, Driver will win before Johansson. He dominates the second half of the movie and has a significant character arc that contains some of the best screen acting in recent memory. This is a performance that can and I think will win on merit alone. As for Supporting Actor, I think everyone here knows I’d like to believe in Pitt, but the Oscars have burned me before. He has had a strong media presence and even though this forum seems to not like the movie, he did get reviews that were basically on par with his OUATIH reviews for Ad Astra. This is the most I’ve seen him referred to as one of the great working actor by the critics and media, and not just a movie star. Unfortunately, he’s in a hellscape of a field. I’ll say Pacino for now. Dern is winning Supp. Actress easily. Lopez is no more than a glorified McConaughey in Magic Mike. I actually think Pitt's going to win quite comfortably. Plus, with Pesci being in the mix, he could split the votes with Pacino if both are nominated.
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Post by doddgerhardt on Sept 29, 2019 22:48:58 GMT
Having seen Marriage Story, Driver will win before Johansson. He dominates the second half of the movie and has a significant character arc that contains some of the best screen acting in recent memory. This is a performance that can and I think will win on merit alone. As for Supporting Actor, I think everyone here knows I’d like to believe in Pitt, but the Oscars have burned me before. He has had a strong media presence and even though this forum seems to not like the movie, he did get reviews that were basically on par with his OUATIH reviews for Ad Astra. This is the most I’ve seen him referred to as one of the great working actor by the critics and media, and not just a movie star. Unfortunately, he’s in a hellscape of a field. I’ll say Pacino for now. Dern is winning Supp. Actress easily. Lopez is no more than a glorified McConaughey in Magic Mike. It’s true that Ad Astra could serve as nice back up for Hollywood.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 29, 2019 22:49:35 GMT
Best Picture- The Irishman Best Director- Martin Scorsese Best Adapted Screenplay- The Irishman Best Original Screenplay- Marriage Story Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix Best Actress - ScarJoBest Supporting Actor- Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress- Laura Dern I just don't see how Zellwegger has the film to counter ScarJo's which is going to have a lot of power and I don't see how Driver has an upfront role enough to beat Phoenix - male leads tend to be the whole show and not share it. Joaquin Phoenix is his own worse enemy. He's already gotten bad press for walking out of an interview when he was asked about all the violence with the Joker. And he had previously slammed the Oscars as "bullshit", even though he later apologized.
I just don't think he's popular enough in Hollywood. And there is no much negative press with the film.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 29, 2019 22:52:24 GMT
Having seen Marriage Story, Driver will win before Johansson. He dominates the second half of the movie and has a significant character arc that contains some of the best screen acting in recent memory. This is a performance that can and I think will win on merit alone. As for Supporting Actor, I think everyone here knows I’d like to believe in Pitt, but the Oscars have burned me before. He has had a strong media presence and even though this forum seems to not like the movie, he did get reviews that were basically on par with his OUATIH reviews for Ad Astra. This is the most I’ve seen him referred to as one of the great working actor by the critics and media, and not just a movie star. Unfortunately, he’s in a hellscape of a field. I’ll say Pacino for now. Dern is winning Supp. Actress easily. Lopez is no more than a glorified McConaughey in Magic Mike. I think Pacino/Pitt can go either way. I went with Pitt because it’s a fantastic borderline leading role in a QT movie and Pitt is having a pretty banner year. I think it’s close though. If Pacino wins an early precursor I can see it becoming a narrative and him running away with it.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 29, 2019 22:59:39 GMT
Best Picture: The Irishman Runner-up: Marriage Story - So far I don't really see any discourse yet about The Irishman being too long, but it's still only the end of September, so maybe Marriage Story will be more of a consensus choice in the end.
Best Director: Martin Scorsese
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman Runner-up: The Two Popes could still be a threat here, but I'm hoping now that Netflix has a clear 1 and 2 that the Anthony McCarten streak will finally be broken.
Best Original Screenplay: Marriage Story (I think that The Irishman gave a big boost to Marriage Story in every category except Best Picture because Netflix will now have two clear pushes in the top 8 categories that won't really interfere with each other, and The Irishman now becoming a possible Best Picture winner hurts OUATIH's chances, imo, which should help Marriage Story in this category.)
Best Actor: Adam Driver Runner-up: Joaquin Phoenix, I'm almost tempted to predict Phoenix, so I don't jinx Driver lol, but with Zellweger surging and Joker getting more bad press everyday, I think Driver has enough to win. Plus, I think that it helps that The Irishman has been raved because I think that hurts Joker which had been compared to Scorsese's Taxi Driver and King of Comedy because Joker is going to look worse now in comparison to the real Scorsese. Finally it was pretty smart of Netflix to get Martin Scorsese to present Adam Driver's tribute at Telluride and call him one of the finest actors of his generation.
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan Runner-up: I know I should predict Renee Zellweger here, but I'm hoping that Ronan can surprise.
Best Supporting Actor: Al Pacino Runner-up: Maybe Brad Pitt if all the other nominees have won an acting Oscar before, but if The Irishman wins Best Picture, I think it will win at least one acting award; although I know that in recent years The Shape of Water, Spotlight, and Birdman didn't.
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern (I don't want to say she's a lock, but I feel the most confident in predicting her right now. I might start to get nervous if Lopez wins the Globe and some critics prizes lol, but I think she really hurt her chances of winning over the years because she focused on being a brand rather than on acting. Sometimes that doesn't matter if the role/film are there, but I don't think her role is undeniable at all. She has one scene at the end which will probably be her Oscar clip, but other than that, I don't feel like she ever got to do that much. Even Regina King had a memorable moment with her monologue in Puerto Rico, but Lopez has even less than that.)
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Post by doddgerhardt on Sept 29, 2019 23:00:10 GMT
Having seen Marriage Story, Driver will win before Johansson. He dominates the second half of the movie and has a significant character arc that contains some of the best screen acting in recent memory. This is a performance that can and I think will win on merit alone. As for Supporting Actor, I think everyone here knows I’d like to believe in Pitt, but the Oscars have burned me before. He has had a strong media presence and even though this forum seems to not like the movie, he did get reviews that were basically on par with his OUATIH reviews for Ad Astra. This is the most I’ve seen him referred to as one of the great working actor by the critics and media, and not just a movie star. Unfortunately, he’s in a hellscape of a field. I’ll say Pacino for now. Dern is winning Supp. Actress easily. Lopez is no more than a glorified McConaughey in Magic Mike. I actually think Pitt's going to win quite comfortably. Plus, with Pesci being in the mix, he could split the votes with Pacino if both are nominated. I think they will nominate Pesci just at the off chance he wins, the Academy and viewers will get to see if he makes an even shorter speech than last time.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Sept 29, 2019 23:12:03 GMT
Also, are people so sure Scorsese will beat Tarantino for director?
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 23:15:43 GMT
Also, are people so sure Scorsese will beat Tarantino for director? I'm not sure, but this is really feeling like Scorsese's Unforgiven. Eastwood, the iconic Western star, was unstoppable with his anti-Western. Scorsese, the don of mobster movies, has come out with his anti-Mobster drama. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Academy felt like Scorsese is more due for his 2nd Oscar than Tarantino is for his 1st. He may just be that beloved.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 29, 2019 23:18:42 GMT
Also, are people so sure Scorsese will beat Tarantino for director? I'm not entirely sure, but I feel that voters may think that Tarantino already having two Oscar, albeit for screenwriting, is still pretty good. He also has one more film that could win him Best Director, assuming he really retires after ten films. I know voters could think that Scorsese could win Best Director on one of his next films, but he is getting up there in age, and this just seems like the best timing since he reunited with De Niro and is the first time he's worked with Pacino. So I feel like voters won't have any problems wanting him to have a second Oscar in directing especially when Cuaron, Eastwood, Iñárritu, Lee, Spielberg, and Stone all have two Directing Oscars.
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Post by mattfincher on Sept 29, 2019 23:23:04 GMT
At this point, I'm not convinced that Jennifer Lopez will even be nominated. It could be like the Jennifer Aniston snub, who got nods from BFCA, GG, SAG - but got replaced at the Oscars with a more respected actress - Marion Cotillard. Fortunately for her, she’s in the supporting category that’s a wasteland this year. If her field had the competition supporting actor has, I’d agree with you. As such, I expect the media will drive her to a nomination.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 23:23:06 GMT
At this point, I'm not convinced that Jennifer Lopez will even be nominated. It could be like the Jennifer Aniston snub, who got nods from BFCA, GG, SAG - but got replaced at the Oscars with a more respected actress - Marion Cotillard. But who's the more respected actress this year? It's not looking like a very strong year for that category, and Hustlers is a huge success story which means Lopez will have a lot more buzz than Aniston ever did. Not to mention, this is the Supporting category and tends to be weaker than Lead.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 29, 2019 23:24:22 GMT
Also, are people so sure Scorsese will beat Tarantino for director? I'm not sure, but this is really feeling like Scorsese's Unforgiven. Eastwood, the iconic Western star, was unstoppable with his anti-Western. Scorsese, the don of mobster movies, has come out with his anti-Mobster drama. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Academy felt like Scorsese is more due for his 2nd Oscar than Tarantino is for his 1st. He may just be that beloved. QT already has two Oscars. I doubt anybody in the academy is too broken up about him not having one for directing.
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 29, 2019 23:27:45 GMT
This feels way too Netflix heavy at the moment.
Best Motion Picture of the Year A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood The Irishman * Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite The Two Popes
Best Achievement in Directing Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story Bong Joon-ho, Parasite Martin Scorsese, The Irishman * Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Actor in a Leading Role Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver, Marriage Story Robert De Niro, The Irishman Joaquin Phoenix, Joker * Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Best Actress in a Leading Role Awkwafina, The Farewell Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story * Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Renée Zellweger, Judy
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes Al Pacino, The Irishman * Joe Pesci, The Irishman Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Actress in a Supporting Role Laura Dern, Marriage Story * Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Best Adapted Screenplay A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood The Irishman * Jojo Rabbit Little Women The Two Popes
Best Original Screenplay The Farewell Knives Out Marriage Story * Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 23:28:04 GMT
QT already has two Oscars. I doubt anybody in the academy is too broken up about him not having one for directing. I'm not saying they are. But I think they'd prefer he had a Directing Oscar than not when he's retired.
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Post by doddgerhardt on Sept 29, 2019 23:34:35 GMT
Also, are people so sure Scorsese will beat Tarantino for director? I think if Tarantino was going up against almost anyone else. It’s tricky. Tarantino has expressed that his next film will most likely be his last. Of course he could always change his mind. Scorsese might have have a few films in him, but he’s getting up there in age and with this being possibly be his last crime mob film(as some have called it his Unforgiven), that could have a hand in getting him best director. Also he’s Martin Scorsese. Sort of like Al Pacino, there might be some urge for a 2nd award. Who knows? Truth be told I think their both beloved filmmakers by the Academy and the industry.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 29, 2019 23:36:41 GMT
QT already has two Oscars. I doubt anybody in the academy is too broken up about him not having one for directing. I'm not saying they are. But I think they'd prefer he had a Directing Oscar than not when he's retired. Eh. I doubt it bothers them enough to effect the outcome of an Oscar race. If he wins it will be because they liked his movie not because he only has the two writing wins. I think most people think Marty deserves more than the one. His ratio is way worse.
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Post by doddgerhardt on Sept 29, 2019 23:37:23 GMT
This feels way too Netflix heavy at the moment. Best Motion Picture of the Year A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood The Irishman * Jojo Rabbit Joker Little Women Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite The Two Popes Best Achievement in Directing Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story Bong Joon-ho, Parasite Martin Scorsese, The Irishman * Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit Best Actor in a Leading Role Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver, Marriage Story Robert De Niro, The Irishman Joaquin Phoenix, Joker * Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes Best Actress in a Leading Role Awkwafina, The Farewell Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story * Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Renée Zellweger, Judy Best Actor in a Supporting Role Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes Al Pacino, The Irishman * Joe Pesci, The Irishman Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Best Actress in a Supporting Role Laura Dern, Marriage Story * Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey Best Adapted Screenplay A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood The Irishman * Jojo Rabbit Little Women The Two Popes Best Original Screenplay The Farewell Knives Out Marriage Story * Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite Interesting to see Knives Out in your screenplay. If supporting actress really is weak this year, I wonder if Ana De Armas has a shot since she is supposedly a stands out.
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