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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 14:24:42 GMT
One of my big theories this year is that precursors are going to matter much more than they have recently just by the nature of the participants involved. That theory really was my reasoning that The Irishman will factor in for BP because of SAG ensemble which it seems to me it will have a real shot at ........and I am convinced the DGA won't pass up Scorsese for Baumbach or Mendes etc.
Now of course, this is all a looooooooong way off but just in general how do you see the precursors this year - more important than they have been or a bit less secure than we normally think? Are you looking at those maybe differently than you did in 2017 ...........2018 etc.
I'll tell you one thing - this is going to be a great Golden Globes if you think about potential matchups there too........
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Post by stephen on Sept 29, 2019 14:27:07 GMT
I don't think they'll have any more substantial bearing on the year that they typically do. BAFTA has become a more reliable bellwether lately, SAG has slackened a little bit but not by much, Globes are gonna Globe, Critics' Choice is probably going to become more of a joke, etc., etc.
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Post by quetee on Sept 29, 2019 15:36:38 GMT
The last two bp winners did not score SAG ensemble.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 29, 2019 16:50:51 GMT
I'm very curious to see how Parasite does with precursors.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 17:33:31 GMT
The last two bp winners did not score SAG ensemble. Right - and this year with the types of films in the BP race (or the assumed ones OUATIH, Irishman, Marriage Story) - it almost "feels" like it matter more in the 2019 race imo. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 17:45:00 GMT
I'm very curious to see how Parasite does with precursors. Particularly screenplay and DGA - in a lot of people are struck by how clever it is in conception and the technical levels - people who love Parasite really love it (me included). |
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 29, 2019 18:45:22 GMT
I don't think they'll have any more substantial bearing on the year that they typically do. BAFTA has become a more reliable bellwether lately, SAG has slackened a little bit but not by much, Globes are gonna Globe, Critics' Choice is probably going to become more of a joke, etc., etc. Yeah, I could see Dern sweeping, but I'm not sure if the Globes will be able to resist giving Lopez an award because of the publicity even though they also love Dern. Outside of that, I think they'll go for The Irishman or Marriage Story, but in my nightmares I also think they could award Joker like they did for Bohemian Rhapsody last year, lol. Not saying that I'll hate Joker, but it would be such a wtf thing to do. I have no idea yet about the lead acting categories partly because of not knowing placement, but also because it's still very early. Like I was predicting Jonathan Pryce to win the Comedy/Musical Globe if The Two Popes goes Comedy and perhaps be a threat for BAFTA and the Oscar, but now I'm having doubts because The Two Popes is going to be a third priority for Netflix, and I'm not sure about their ability to campaign for so many films. The Two Popes does seem like an easy watch, but I wonder if it will be a factor anymore to win. Maybe? Maybe not? I know that Netflix seems like it has unlimited resources, but I wonder if it's just better for them to focus on The Irishman and Marriage Story the most because other than Best Picture, they're not really competing for wins in the same category (Scorsese, Driver, Johansson, Pacino/Pesci, Dern, Adapted, Original) whereas The Two Popes could potentially take away votes from Driver, Pacino/Pesci, and The Irishman in Adapted Screenplay. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 19:00:42 GMT
I think BAFTA is becoming more and more indicative as far as the Oscars go.
1. The Globes are clearly the most popular awards show after the Oscars, but the HFPA has no overlap with the Academy and there is some distrust about their choices because the Academy knows they're ulteriorly motivated. They can still affect the race by giving a popularity boost, but that's about it.
2. SAG has become a very populist group after they've invited Radio Jockeys over through AFTRA, and the voting body each year probably has a very small overlap with the Academy. The other guilds are probably still very good indicators.
3. I don't even want to talk about the BFCA because it's a joke of a group that nobody should be paying attention to, but I'll just say this: BFCA is a fucking joke.
That leaves BAFTA, which definitely has an overlap with the Academy and they can influence certain races because their tastes differ in certain ways to the Academy's. They've maybe started to try and predict the Oscars a little over the years, but they happen the last among the precursors and can also be indicative of how the race is shifting. They're still not the best predictors, but they might be the best indicators.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 15, 2019 14:19:02 GMT
This is going to be crucial and great for Best Actress - on paper Theron and Zellwegger will split the Globes (if they pick the expected categories).......that means ScarJo has to win SAG to compete........and then........BAFTA is anybody's guess....
Yikes - the precursors are crucial here.........Best Supporting Actor too maybe .......
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 19, 2019 21:23:25 GMT
This is going to be crucial and great for Best Actress - on paper Theron and Zellwegger will split the Globes (if they pick the expected categories).......that means ScarJo has to win SAG to compete........and then........ BAFTA is anybody's guess.... Idk how much it matters but Judy is actually a UK movie - completely filmed there and produced by the BBC/Pathe. I can def see Theron or ScarJo taking SAG over Zellweger but maybe not the BAFTA.... Oscars could be a toss-up.... |
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Oct 19, 2019 21:44:27 GMT
Some points of interest this year: -Joaquin Phoenix. How are the critics and the industry going to handle him? Globes love this kind of perf but they love actors sucking up to them even more and Phoenix is not one for that kind of stuff. SAG is possible... but will they want to avoid any 'controversy' (if there is any?) I don't think he gets BAFTA. -On that note, this is the richest and most fascinating Best Actor race in years... you got Phoenix, Pryce/Hopkins, McKellen, Driver, the Dafoe/Pattinson duo (could win NSFC), Banderas, DiCaprio, De Niro... and then outliers like Chalamet who also look interesting. Can't wait to see how it all goes down. - Parasite vs. American movies: LAFCA and NSFC are of particular interest here. They're on a foreign-language high right now after Roma, Burning, etc. South Korean new wave coming for those American awards  - The Irishman and Once Upon Time in Hollywood... Both movies big in scope and that feel like the end of an era in different ways. Will they be vying for the same votes? -Pacino vs. Pitt vs. Pesci is a lot livelier than your usual supporting actor race. -Not feeling the actress races this year but I am a fan of Johansson and a BIG fan of Theron and Dern so I'm mildly curious. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 19, 2019 21:51:29 GMT
Some points of interest this year: -Joaquin Phoenix. How are the critics and the industry going to handle him? Globes love this kind of perf but they love actors sucking up to them even more and Phoenix is not one for that kind of stuff. SAG is possible... but will they want to avoid any 'controversy' (if there is any?) I don't think he gets BAFTA. People were thinking the same thing about Gary Oldman, who famously shit on the Globes and still won (and kissed the requisite amount of ass when he did). Joaquin is a previous Globe winner, so he's already part of the club, so to speak. And I think the controversy is a non-factor at this point; money talks and bullshit walks, and it's on track to be the most financially lucrative film for an awards contender this year. I also think Phoenix is exactly who BAFTA would go for, but keep in mind they've been trying to be prognosticators the last few years, so it depends on whether or not Phoenix takes home major prizes up to that point. But he's got as much of a shot as anyone. |
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Oct 19, 2019 21:54:48 GMT
Some points of interest this year: -Joaquin Phoenix. How are the critics and the industry going to handle him? Globes love this kind of perf but they love actors sucking up to them even more and Phoenix is not one for that kind of stuff. SAG is possible... but will they want to avoid any 'controversy' (if there is any?) I don't think he gets BAFTA. People were thinking the same thing about Gary Oldman, who famously shit on the Globes and still won (and kissed the requisite amount of ass when he did). Joaquin is a previous Globe winner, so he's already part of the club, so to speak. And I think the controversy is a non-factor at this point; money talks and bullshit walks, and it's on track to be the most financially lucrative film for an awards contender this year. I also think Phoenix is exactly who BAFTA would go for, but keep in mind they've been trying to be prognosticators the last few years, so it depends on whether or not Phoenix takes home major prizes up to that point. But he's got as much of a shot as anyone. I'm feeling Pryce for BAFTA (and not just cos he's British) but I tend to agree the controversy won't amount to much and Phoenix is probably our Oscar frontrunner at this point. |
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 19, 2019 22:07:19 GMT
-Pacino vs. Pitt vs. Pesci is a lot livelier than your usual supporting actor race. I get whatcha mean but Pitt/Pesci allegedly not campaigning at all sort of clears the way to what I think will be a Pacino landslide. I admit I'm hopeful that way since I'm a Pacino fanatic - but then again the Pacino role - a succession of big standout scenes - is what awards bodies eat up in the supporting field....and Pitt/Pesci are both quite good yes but idk if they have even one scene that blows you away.... |
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 19, 2019 22:11:30 GMT
-Pacino vs. Pitt vs. Pesci is a lot livelier than your usual supporting actor race. I get whatcha mean but Pitt/Pesci allegedly not campaigning at all sort of clears the way to what I think will be a Pacino landslide. I admit I'm hopeful that way since I'm a Pacino fanatic - but then again the Pacino role - a succession of big standout scenes - is what awards bodies eat up in the supporting field....and Pitt/Pesci are both quite good yes but idk if they have even one scene that blows you away.... And what about Hanks? Does he stand a chance? Will he even compete in the supporting category? |
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 19, 2019 22:22:48 GMT
I get whatcha mean but Pitt/Pesci allegedly not campaigning at all sort of clears the way to what I think will be a Pacino landslide. I admit I'm hopeful that way since I'm a Pacino fanatic - but then again the Pacino role - a succession of big standout scenes - is what awards bodies eat up in the supporting field....and Pitt/Pesci are both quite good yes but idk if they have even one scene that blows you away.... And what about Hanks? Does he stand a chance? Will he even compete in the supporting category? Well I don't think that trailer looked good - just simple and cutesy - but I did really like Can You Ever Forgive Me from the same director so who knows. Category placement could lose him votes, or that he has 2 wins already. And don't forget the Academy actors vote for actors - and I just don't see them going with him (I'm talking about a nom), who they snubbed for his great work in Cpt Phillips, over Dafoe who they love lately or Sterling K Brown maybe? |
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Post by quetee on Oct 19, 2019 22:44:58 GMT
Some points of interest this year: -Joaquin Phoenix. How are the critics and the industry going to handle him? Globes love this kind of perf but they love actors sucking up to them even more and Phoenix is not one for that kind of stuff. SAG is possible... but will they want to avoid any 'controversy' (if there is any?) I don't think he gets BAFTA. -On that note, this is the richest and most fascinating Best Actor race in years... you got Phoenix, Pryce/Hopkins, McKellen, Driver, the Dafoe/Pattinson duo (could win NSFC), Banderas, DiCaprio, De Niro... and then outliers like Chalamet who also look interesting. Can't wait to see how it all goes down. - Parasite vs. American movies: LAFCA and NSFC are of particular interest here. They're on a foreign-language high right now after Roma, Burning, etc. South Korean new wave coming for those American awards - The Irishman and Once Upon Time in Hollywood... Both movies big in scope and that feel like the end of an era in different ways. Will they be vying for the same votes? -Pacino vs. Pitt vs. Pesci is a lot livelier than your usual supporting actor race. -Not feeling the actress races this year but I am a fan of Johansson and a BIG fan of Theron and Dern so I'm mildly curious. You forgot Taron. He maybe low on the list but he is a contender. You also forgot Eddie Murphy. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 22, 2019 11:07:14 GMT
One of my big theories this year is that precursors are going to matter much more than they have recently just by the nature of the participants involved. That theory really was my reasoning that The Irishman will factor in for BP because of SAG ensemble which it seems to me it will have a real shot at ........and I am convinced the DGA won't pass up Scorsese for Baumbach or Mendes etc. Now of course, this is all a looooooooong way off but just in general how do you see the precursors this year - more important than they have been or a bit less secure than we normally think? Are you looking at those maybe differently than you did in 2017 ...........2018 etc. I'll tell you one thing - this is going to be a great Golden Globes if you think about potential matchups there too........ Most people seem to agree BAFTA plays a heavier hand recently and yet I'd argue that Pacino or Pesci - either one - could actually win the Oscar BSA without getting any BAFTA nod at all - because BAFTA would seem far more likely to pick 1 Irishman actor rather than both of them. The one left out of BAFTA could still win out. For the Oscar I am thinking that is literally now becoming "Picture dependent" rather than "Actor dependent" - are they ok not giving Pitt a win and leaving OUATIH winless potentially or are they more likely not to reward any actor from The Irishman - a film specifically lauded for its acting? I still say it's Pitt's to lose and OUATIH is too big to get shut out but The Irishman is clearly not The Departed - it's a different beast - and there's going to be an increasing urgency to award someone of the big 3 it seems to me. |
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