SAG Predictions

NGNG Marriage Story misses here in ensemble. Some voters could think of it to be a primarily Driver and Johansson driven movie, but others like Dern, Alda etc just feel too minor (I haven't seen the film yet, might be wrong, but if they were more present, we'd just know by now, you know?) Some ensemble wise comparable stuff more or less like TSOW and Green Book missed out. Yeah, A Star Is Born, which is more comparable that way did make it but I just dont feel it rn, it couldn't steamroll as much as we think rn.

In general, I see very few people considering the Irishman will be a strong awards contender.
I understand we have no word of it yet (but same goes for 1917, am I wrong) and there are a few things that can go wrong and ruin the whole film (cgi mostly).
On the other hand, there are quite a few things that can draw awards attention even by default: Scorsese most of all, the cast despite its recent poor career decisions remains legendary, the editing and the script is done by people loved in the academy...

(Really matters who made a movie, actually. Imo, if Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wasn't made by QT, we would have no Oscars discussion at all...)

Yes, it may flop and get no awards at all but... Netflix will push it really hard, meaning it is a film awards worthy. Or it may be really good! If our expectations are too high and it doesn't deliver, that doesn't necessarily mean it won't get awards attention.

Yeah, quoting my own post like a weirdo  from 10 days ago but what sort of surprises or left turns do you see here since The Irishman crashed the party .......which of these is in or out for ensemble: Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Knives Out - you'd assume Marriage Story and The Irishman are locks here at this time?

What's interesting is if you believe OUATIH is still in for the ensemble category which at one time seemed a slam dunk - The Farewell is a threat too certainly but maybe not with Little Women (or Bombshell !?!) and 1917 a possible BP threat isn't really present as an acting threat here right?

Fascinated by that ensemble pick this year.......seems quirky, hard to read........

Most Likely:
Marriage Story - My pick for the winner right now. The Irishman might have the 3 acting legends in it, but that might actually work against it because it seems most of the focus is on them somewhat like a The Favourite last year. I know the committee changes every year, but they seem to be moving away from when they'd just nominate the Best Picture frontrunners every where even if they had a small cast.

The Irishman

Possible:
Jojo Rabbit - I'm not as confident in this as I am the top two or as others elsewhere seem to be, but it did win TIFF which is pretty major. However, I could see SAG snubbing all of the individual actors, and it only receiving an Ensemble nomination. SAG is also very friendly to child actors which should help it a lot.

Little Women - Seems like it can't miss on paper with Ronan, Streep, Dern, Chalamet, etc., but it could come out too late especially in a shorter season, or maybe it gets knocked out by something like Downton Abbey or Hustlers.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - On paper, I thought this would be a shoo in, but aside from mostly cameos, the only ones that really get to do something are DiCaprio, Pitt, and I guess Robbie. It might not be "ensemble-y" enough to get in.

Downton Abbey - They loved the television series, but will that translate into love for the movie?

Hustlers - It felt "ensemble-y" to me, and it feels like the kind of Orange Is the New Black type of nomination that SAG loves. It did get a B- CinemaScore though, so it could definitely still miss.

Ones to Watch Out for:
The Farewell - If the SAG committee actually watches it, I think it has a good chance, but they seem pretty basic after the merger, if Roma couldn't even get one nomination despite Netflix's massive spending and Mary Poppins Returns being a late screener.

Dolemite Is My Name - Seems like something right up SAG's alley, but Netflix has two other pushes in this category, and it couldn't place at TIFF.

In the Running:
Just Mercy - I kept seeing this described as SAG catnip before reviews came out at TIFF. Probably not, but again SAG can be pretty random sometimes.

Dark Waters - With the shortened season and just going by the trailer, it doesn't look that much like an Ensemble to me, so I don't think so. Still I think only Ruffalo and maybe Bill Camp will have any chance to get in at SAG.

Bombshell - They loved Trumbo, although that was about the film industry and this is about Fox News. However, bringing together three of the best working actresses and Lithgow might be seen as pretty impressive. Will the movie be any good though? Vice also missed here, which Bombshell's award chances have been compared to.

Rocketman - Probably not, but with a shorter season maybe it could pull off a random Ensemble nomination since it did pretty well at the box office not BR well but still one of the few populist films in the mix.

Cats - I guess I have to include it because SAG loves Tom Hooper, and sometimes give random nods (Hairspray) and not so random nods (Nine) to musicals. The trailer making the film into a laughingstock plus new technology that Hooper is using makes me think that SAG isn't going to go for it, but again random is the key word here.