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Post by stephen on Sept 22, 2019 2:03:27 GMT
So as we all know, the most reliable technical corollary with Best Picture is Best Editing. It's not been entirely foolproof of late (Birdman), but it's nevertheless as reliable a bellwether for the big prize as anything.
So what are we thinking gets nominated here?
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Sept 22, 2019 2:05:10 GMT
1917 A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood Ford v Ferrari Jojo Rabbit Marriage Story
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Post by stephen on Sept 22, 2019 2:08:18 GMT
Interesting -- you think after snubbing Birdman, they'd actually nominate this?
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Post by doddgerhardt on Sept 22, 2019 2:12:23 GMT
1917 Ford vs Ferrari(this could be it’s sole win) Star Wars: Rise of the Skywalkers Marriage Story The Irishman(on the basis of Thelma)
Tough category to predict really.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 22, 2019 2:19:40 GMT
1917 Ford v Ferrari Joker Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Sept 22, 2019 2:27:33 GMT
Interesting -- you think after snubbing Birdman, they'd actually nominate this? You've got me questioning myself now, haha.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 22, 2019 5:36:06 GMT
I have no clue about below the line categories.
Marriage Story - Feels likely because of the editing/BP stat.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Usually I don't notice editing unless it sticks out to me in a bad way, and there was at least one really rough part of OUATIH that I remember although I forget which scene exactly, I think part of it was during Rick's part when he was making his tv show. I guess it will still make it though if it's a top 3 BP contender.
Parasite - I don't know?
Joker - Seems like it could have really flashy editing.
The Irishman - Thelma and Marty are a dream team; although I'm sure there will probably be jokes about a 3 and half hour film being nominated for Best Editing.
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 22, 2019 5:46:00 GMT
I dunno, five Best Picture nominees that are edited in a fairly standard way?
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 22, 2019 8:56:22 GMT
Jojo Rabbit is a dark horse here too in that if they like this they may like the editing and juxtaposition of shots conveying tone and feel - of course they have to like the overall satirical effect too - but editing and prod design are two possibles for that film.
If The Irishman works its going to evoke JFK I would imagine - and that's one of the best edited movies ever - so again I can't picture it being good and missing here.......its either a non-factor or it's a player everywhere......the amount of information attempting to be conveyed in this story is overwhelming so it either triumphs or it's formless.
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
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Post by JangoB on Sept 22, 2019 10:30:28 GMT
Real tough stuff to predict. We all know their MO here - be flashy or be a big BP contender. It just kinda seems there ain't too many flashy options this year. I'm thinking:
- Jojo Rabbit - I expect it to be a big contender and I guess with its zany style and comedic rhythm the editing should be notable. - Ford v. Ferrari - The adrenaile pick which apparently has some pretty intense cutting. Prestige-y enough to make it in here. - Marriage Story - One of the frontrunners is a good place to be when it comes to this category. - The Irishman - Here's hoping that editors will be impressed by Schoonmaker's weaving of all that material together with its sheer size, jumping between time periods and all that. - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Fred Raskin is no Sally Menke but I think the movie will be big enough for him to finally make it. Even despite its leisurely pace.
Feels kinda wrong tbh.
There's "Parasite" but I'm just not in a hurry to predict a foreign feature here. I mean, I do expect the film to be a formidable contender but not to such an extent. Although if there is a tech category for it to end up in, this is the one.
"1917" will probably miss because this branch ain't gonna nominate a movie for actually hiding its cuts.
I guess there's "Joker" but I don't expect it to be much of an Oscar movie really. Heck, maybe "Star Wars" gets in.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 22, 2019 13:29:46 GMT
1917 - Mpst possible nod. A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Didn't like the editing but I believe it will somehow make it to the final 5. The Irishman - This one is supposed to have a very heavy editing work with all the flashbacks and back and forths. Plus, it's Thelma. Marriage Story
I don't know about Jojo. I'm still not convinced it will be an Oscar contender. Maybe but...
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Post by stephen on Sept 22, 2019 15:59:32 GMT
It's very interesting how few "flashy" films there are set to be this year. The only nominee I'm fairly confident in is Ford v. Ferrari because it ticks all the boxes of what they typically like.
You'd think Tarantino would be a slam dunk, but he hasn't gotten into this category for his last two films (one of which was probably a top five Picture contender). And Hollywood is his most languid movie in quite some time; I could see it being a winner contender, but I could also see it missing completely.
I'm also (big surprise) not entirely sold on The Irishman. Era cross-cutting aside, Thelma missed out on what should've been a surefire win for Wolf of Wall Street, which was at the time Scorsese's longest movie. I don't think she's a sure thing despite her pedigree, and it remains to be seen how the pacing of The Irishman is received. If it is viewed as bloated and indulgent, she very well could miss again.
1917 will likely get Birdman'd, and a few of the major Picture contenders (Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit) don't feel like what they normally go for except to pad out the nomination tally of BP frontrunners. I'm wondering if we're overlooking a major dark horse threat somewhere.
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 22, 2019 16:22:03 GMT
Last year's winner is maybe the all-time worst in the category. Besides agreeing with Best Pics they also for w/e reason like to nominate 'the most editing' instead of the best.
The Irishman* Jojo Rabbit Star Wars Waves Joker
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 22, 2019 16:38:28 GMT
It's very interesting how few "flashy" films there are set to be this year. The only nominee I'm fairly confident in is Ford v. Ferrari because it ticks all the boxes of what they typically like. You'd think Tarantino would be a slam dunk, but he hasn't gotten into this category for his last two films (one of which was probably a top five Picture contender). And Hollywood is his most languid movie in quite some time; I could see it being a winner contender, but I could also see it missing completely. I'm also (big surprise) not entirely sold on The Irishman. Era cross-cutting aside, Thelma missed out on what should've been a surefire win for Wolf of Wall Street, which was at the time Scorsese's longest movie. I don't think she's a sure thing despite her pedigree, and it remains to be seen how the pacing of The Irishman is received. If it is viewed as bloated and indulgent, she very well could miss again. 1917 will likely get Birdman'd, and a few of the major Picture contenders ( Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit) don't feel like what they normally go for except to pad out the nomination tally of BP frontrunners. I'm wondering if we're overlooking a major dark horse threat somewhere. Maybe Parasite? Or Joker?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2019 17:57:11 GMT
Holding off of Irishman until we get a word for it. 1917, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, OUATIH, Joker (interchangable with Irishman if it gets raved enough) another alt is Parasite (forget about OUATIH for a split sec)
Also, might be the wrong place to ask, but how did Parasite become such a big player in general? Non American Palme winners dont get that much recognition generally, even with raves. What am I missing?
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