Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 13, 2019 22:30:11 GMT
Netflix has the happy problem of having too many Oscar contenders, but even a happy problem is a problem.
Marriage Story is getting across-the-board raves (95 on Metacritic) and could well be our Best Picture frontrunner. Expect nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Editing, and possibly even Supporting Actor if the Academy goes all-in.
The Two Popes is getting very good reviews (83 on Metacritic) and is in contention for a Best Picture nomination. It's a likely player for Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, and perhaps Editing and Production Design.
Dolemite Is My Name is getting good reviews (69 on Metacritic) and, being a crowdpleaser, it could be one of those movies that transcends reviews to become a big player. A Costume Design nominations seems likely, and it's a potential player for Actor and Screenplay.
That leaves The Irishman, which is the big wild card of the season. Martin Scorsese has one of the best critical and Oscars track records of the century and he's returning to his favorite playing field: Gangsters. With a budget of $200M and a storied cast that includes Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Harvey Keitel, and Anna Paquin, it's arguably Netflix's crown jewel this year and the movie they have the most riding on. Potential plays include Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Visual Effects, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup.
And that means Netflix has decisions, decisions, and decisions to make. 3 Best Picture plays, 4 Best Actor plays, 3 Best Supporting Actor plays, 1 Best Supporting Actress play, and 3 Best Screenplay plays means Netflix has enough on their slate to fill up half the major categories. And yet, even they would know that it is just not realistic to expect to get all of them in. And they have to prioritize to make sure they maximize the numbers of nominations/wins they get. What do you think they will prioritize?
Vote away! Also, rank who you think their Lead Actor priorities will be.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 13, 2019 22:36:16 GMT
LOL, I initially just wanted to do the popular permutations in the poll, but I just kept on going until I hit 4!. At least I have everything covered, even if it looks hideous. I think this will be the order that Netflix prioritizes:
Marriage Story > The Irishman > The Two Popes > Dolemite Is My Name (though I can see them making The Irishman their main priority if it delivers strongly) Adam Driver > Jonathan Pryce > Robert De Niro > Eddie Murphy (though I can see them putting Murphy over De Niro if the latter ends up not getting traction)
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 13, 2019 23:08:33 GMT
LOL, I initially just wanted to do the popular permutations in the poll, but I just kept on going until I hit 4!. At least I have everything covered, even if it looks hideous. I think this will be the order that Netflix prioritizes: Marriage Story > The Irishman > The Two Popes > Dolemite Is My Name (though I can see them making The Irishman their main priority if it delivers strongly) Adam Driver > Jonathan Pryce > Robert De Niro > Eddie Murphy (though I can see them putting Murphy over De Niro if the latter ends up not getting traction) This is what I think at the moment too. Obviously Netflix would like to recoup on The Irishman, but Marriage Story is already a sure thing. Critics love it, and so far it doesn't have any major detractors yet. (I'm sure that will change later if it comes close to winning.) Plus, at least one acting win seems likely, imo. If The Irishman premieres to even better reviews than Marriage Story which is possible, I'm sure they'll shuffle things around and prioritize that. Same with Best Actor. I think that Driver will be their main push at least until the televised awards start. If Phoenix wins the Drama Globe and Pryce or Murphy win the Comedy/Musical Globe, I could see them switching focus if they think Pryce or Murphy has the better chance. I would guess Pryce is more likely, but things could change between now and the televised awards. It will be interesting to see what would happen if Driver wins the Drama Globe and Pryce wins the Comedy/Musical Globe though. Driver probably wins the Oscar, but if the Globes also award Dern and Johansson, I don't know who I would pick to go on and win the Oscar outside of Dern, who would likely be locked in at that point if she's able to beat J. Lo at the Globes of all places.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 13, 2019 23:16:27 GMT
This is what I think at the moment too. Obviously Netflix would like to recoup on The Irishman, but Marriage Story is already a sure thing. Critics love it, and so far it doesn't have any major detractors yet. (I'm sure that will change later if it comes close to winning.) Plus, at least one acting win seems likely, imo. If The Irishman premieres to even better reviews than Marriage Story which is possible, I'm sure they'll shuffle things around and prioritize that. Same with Best Actor. I think that Driver will be their main push at least until the televised awards start. If Phoenix wins the Drama Globe and Pryce or Murphy win the Comedy/Musical Globe, I could see them switching focus if they think Pryce or Murphy has the better chance. I would guess Pryce is more likely, but things could change between now and the televised awards. It will be interesting to see what would happen if Driver wins the Drama Globe and Pryce wins the Comedy/Musical Globe though. Driver probably wins the Oscar, but if the Globes also award Dern and Johansson, I don't know who I would pick to go on and win the Oscar outside of Dern, who would likely be locked in at that point if she's able to beat J. Lo at the Globes of all places. I think Phoenix is Driver's only threat, and that threat seems to be fading with the latest reviews. There is still a decent chance that a due narrative will develop for Phoenix or that Joker becomes a big player, but I really can't see anything Pryce has over Driver except the role, and I don't think that will be enough. I haven't been following Hustlers closely so maybe I'm underestimating it, but I think there is no way in hell the Academy will give the Oscar to Lopez over Dern. They might be a little biased against Lopez ("pop star", "Bennifer", "doesn't act enough", "does too many things", "Jenny from the block", etc.) while Dern seems universally beloved and will be in a much stronger movie.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 13, 2019 23:29:38 GMT
Haven't seen these but I don't really get how people are assessing Marriage Story, The Irishman, the film industry or the general races tbh.
Marriage Story to me is going to struggle with it's mundane subject matter - Oscar people are going to nod the hell out of it, but at a certain point that subject is Boyhood to them - "Yeah I went through a divorce too, sucked, great movie but....."
I think The Irishman is positioning itself as a Godfather II (hopefully) - where people may be overwhelmed by it until they repeat watch it and everyone is going to complain about the length, the CGI, the complexity, the old white dudes, the popcorn........ but there is going to be a strain (I hope) of reaction that's sort of like it was for Tree of Life - where you're like "Fnck that was really something else at least......and then if that takes hold, all bets are off.
Dolemite and Two Popes are very similar films in that one is a niche in type (Two Popes) and one in subject matter (Dolemite, a cult figure) - but Two Popes starts with a discussion of the acting first and foremost - it's more a no brainer than Dolemite to me.
So Irishman > Marriage Story > Two Popes > Dolemite
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 13, 2019 23:36:06 GMT
This is what I think at the moment too. Obviously Netflix would like to recoup on The Irishman, but Marriage Story is already a sure thing. Critics love it, and so far it doesn't have any major detractors yet. (I'm sure that will change later if it comes close to winning.) Plus, at least one acting win seems likely, imo. If The Irishman premieres to even better reviews than Marriage Story which is possible, I'm sure they'll shuffle things around and prioritize that. Same with Best Actor. I think that Driver will be their main push at least until the televised awards start. If Phoenix wins the Drama Globe and Pryce or Murphy win the Comedy/Musical Globe, I could see them switching focus if they think Pryce or Murphy has the better chance. I would guess Pryce is more likely, but things could change between now and the televised awards. It will be interesting to see what would happen if Driver wins the Drama Globe and Pryce wins the Comedy/Musical Globe though. Driver probably wins the Oscar, but if the Globes also award Dern and Johansson, I don't know who I would pick to go on and win the Oscar outside of Dern, who would likely be locked in at that point if she's able to beat J. Lo at the Globes of all places. I think Phoenix is Driver's only threat, and that threat seems to be fading with the latest reviews. There is still a decent chance that a due narrative will develop for Phoenix or that Joker becomes a big player, but I really can't see anything Pryce has over Driver except the role, and I don't think that will be enough. I haven't been following Hustlers closely so maybe I'm underestimating it, but I think there is no way in hell the Academy will give the Oscar to Lopez over Dern. They might be a little biased against Lopez ("pop star", "Bennifer", "doesn't act enough", "does too many things", "Jenny from the block", etc.) while Dern seems universally beloved and will be in a much stronger movie. I agree about Lopez, but it seems we're at the point in the race where people are trying to still make it a race even though it's probably a done deal, and I can't help but react to that, lol. Same with Pryce. The Two Popes is certainly a crowdpleaser, and he's got good reviews, but I really don't see him winning over Phoenix or Driver. However, insecurity starts to creep in when I start reading posts about how Pryce can surprise. Not totally sure about Driver yet because Joker will likely do very well at the box office, but yes it does seem like Joker's strengthened weakened a lot after that Golden Lion win. The Shape of Water was able to come back, but that was entirely different because Three Billboards was the more divisive film, and Get Out and Lady Bird had more cons in the end. However, Driver also has the last Star Wars film. I don't entirely trust JJ Abrams, even though I did like The Force Awakens and I'm one of the few fans, it seems, of The Last Jedi here, but I'm sure that Driver will nail the material. I'm guessing that he'll die in some way; although, I think he'll be brought back to life somehow, so it's not entirely the same as Vader's story. Plus, it's going to be huge at the box office too. There's also The Report, but I still have no idea what Amazon is going to do. If Bening and maybe the screenplay can get in, I think the visibility would help Driver, but it could easily be forgotten about.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 14, 2019 13:05:19 GMT
Driver is the front runner for the BA Oscar and Dern seems to be a lock ut what Netflix really cares about is the BP Oscar.
And that one can come either from Marriage Story or the Irishman. I've said it before: Having spent around 200m. just for the making of the Irishman, they will definitely push it as hell. Imo there is no question as to which film has the priority.
Of course next in line is Marriage Story, no doubt. If the reviews for the Scorsese flick are disastrous, they may switch places.
As for the rest, I think the Two Popes are higher in their priority list, especially targeting acting, writing and costumes categories. But that's open to change.
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