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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 13, 2019 15:52:50 GMT
............and for those who want to do more than just vote, a followup question - does SAG Ensemble also win BP this year or no?
I listed a lot of choices here - curious if results are very narrow already or ..............all over the map.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 13, 2019 15:57:02 GMT
Marriage Story is the frontrunner and the very likely winner, at the moment.
I can't say whether the SAG winner will be the Best Picture winner too, it's too early. It usually happens when a movie sweeps, and sweeps are becoming more and more difficult to pull off.
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 13, 2019 16:15:08 GMT
Good question. Well first predicting the nominees ... I'll say Marriage Story, The Irishman, OUATIH, Little Women, and Knives Out (that last one I see as being a non-BP contender and never really in the conversation that nonetheless sort of over-performs at precursors, i.e. some Comedy Globes, maybe a PGA nod, ultimately maybe getting into Original Screenplay or something, etc.) ... and I'm predicting these with little to no confidence, basically on the basis that they're the most appealing ensembles on paper. As for what wins ... inclined to say Marriage Story especially with Wil's confidence in it (given that he's actually seen it...), plus I think it's the biggest BP contender of the bunch and SAG will be its big boost. Not to mention it feels like the healthy middle ground choice between the social statement pick (Little Women) and the "wow that's a lot of old white guys" pick (Irishman) that usually makes for the safest prediction.
And here I was thinking I wouldn't participate as much in awards buzz this year...
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 13, 2019 16:31:32 GMT
I'll say Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for the SAG ensemble. And it has very good chances in winning BP, also. But it's a shot in the dark atm. Especially for BP predictions.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 13, 2019 17:13:03 GMT
Not many successful ensembles this year, anyway.
The Irishman: I'd be shocked if it didn't get in. It's Marty with Al-Joe-Bobby, and in a gangster movie released by Netflix (SAG's sweetheart). And Marty's last few ensembles got in (The Aviator, The Departed, TWoWS which wasn't nominated due to screeners).
Once upon a time... in Hollywood: It's a Tarantino ensemble, so shoe-in by default.
Little Women: Hard to predict a snub. Lady Bird got in, and this one is Greta and Saoirse + Chalamet, Meryl and Emma Watson. If the movie is at least good, it's in.
Marriage Story: I already said it. This is in it to win it.
Fifth one? I don't know. There's usually a left-field choice. Perhaps The Farewell? Not entirely sold on Knives Out. I know that the ensemble of Parasite is sensational and it would deserve the nod.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 13, 2019 17:47:45 GMT
Marriage Story - My pick for the winner. I think it wins WGA and SAG Ensemble, but is stopped by the DGA and PGA winner which right now I think will be OUATIH.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Before I saw it, I thought this had a good chance to win, but I don't think it's actually very "ensemble-y", I guess other than a few scenes, but those have a lot of cameos in them.
Hustlers - After seeing this and knowing how SAG picks at least one "hip" choice, I don't see this missing.
Little Women - Could miss, but it's hard to see it missing with this cast. Although for some reason, sometimes there's still screener issues, but I don't think Sony has ever had a problem with that.
Knives Out - SAG likes to go outside the box, and there's often a choice that doesn't have much of a chance for a Best Picture nomination, but they go for. It could
be this with its large cast, and I've heard that one of the best things about the film is that they all actually do interact with one another unlike in some films where there's a large cast which doesn't really come together in scenes.
Other possibilities:
The Irishman - Netflix plus that cast, but it's also really long. Plus SAG doesn't always go with the expected favorite like The Post missing everywhere despite many people predicting that it would do great there.
The Farewell - If the film was all in English, I would be more apt to predict it, but SAG hasn't nominated any non-English performances after their merger. On the plus side unlike Roma last year which had the most memorable packaging, imo, at least it has Awkwafina in it who was just nominated last year and is a rising star, so the whole cast isn't completely unknown.
Dolemite Is My Name - Netflix plus what sounds like a really entertaining movie about the industry. If another distributor had this, I'd probably be more likely to include it, but I'm not sure about Netflix being able to get more than Marriage Story nominated here.
Downton Abbey - I have a feeling that they're over it especially since it feels more like a tv special than an actual film that really needed to be made, but award shows have a way of letting me down.
Joker - It's a one man show, but if Phoenix sweeps maybe Joker can follow the pattern of other films from Best Actor winners that swept like Dallas Buyers Club, The Theory of Everything, and Bohemian Rhapsody by scoring an Ensemble nomination. The first two I understand, but I'm still scratching my head over that last one.
Just Mercy - A lot of people were predicting this before it's premiere, but after reading the reviews, I don't see it making it in.
Bombshell - That cast! However, I think in the end it's going to be hurt by Hustlers and Little Women having much better reviews.
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