|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 9, 2019 1:18:33 GMT
Also I feel like this PSA has already been made but I will make it again: Rhys is Lead, Hanks is Supporting.
|
|
|
Post by Martin Stett on Sept 9, 2019 1:53:18 GMT
Gonna go NGNG and say that Robert Eggers scores a directing nod. Nothing else to report.
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Sept 9, 2019 1:54:57 GMT
Why no confidence in Hollywood? Not even DiCaprio? Well I addressed that already when I listed it as an alternate ... it certainly still has a shot but only if a lot of the stuff in its place underwhelms, I think. Sony has a full slate this year and I can't imagine OUATIH doesn't take a backseat to Beautiful Day and Little Women. Yes, OUATIH is well-acclaimed and has been a massive financial success, but I'm not sure it has the legs to keep that momentum going into awards season. As I said in my original post, unfortunately I think it's doomed to get beat out by shinier, newer things. I guarantee it's a better movie than just about everything that does get nominated if not all of them, but that's beside the point ... yes it's a well-liked movie but I think it needed to be even more beloved for me to be confident with it getting in the BP lineup. Not to mention there's been all sorts of controversy surrounding it ... perhaps Academy members don't have the same problems that certain critics and viewers have voiced with it, and will instead be so taken aback by the starry-eyed showbiz narrative that they still throw their support at it ... that wouldn't at all surprise me so, again, not counting out its chances. In the midst of fall festival season though it really feels like it's at the periphery right now. With regards to DiCaprio, it was difficult to cut him out of my predicted line-up, not just because I do like his chances but because of how deserved the nod would be, it's the second best performance of his career as I've voiced before. However that field seems to have gotten pretty competitive rather quickly and, as with the film itself, I think DiCaprio ultimately gets beat out by the newer contenders ... I do like his chances still as I said, but not as much as the others guy I listed instead of him. Hanks is most vulnerable there because a.) he's on a bad streak (which I suspect is very due to be broken, but still), and b.) that might not even be his category, but his film will surely be a much bigger contender than DiCaprio's and the praise he's gotten thus far seems to be just as rapturous. Murphy of course also isn't a sure thing, but it's the kind of role the Academy will eat up especially with a comeback narrative, and again his praise looks promising ... taking some risky bets with that category and obviously DiCaprio's role is still one with a lot of industry appeal, so maybe I'm still underestimating him despite how much I want to see him be recognized. I don't know ... really the main reason I left him (and Pitt) off for now is that I'm currently thinking OUATIH generally underperforms which is just a hunch, so that's really all I have to say on the matter.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 9, 2019 1:56:00 GMT
Gonna go NGNG and say that Robert Eggers scores a directing nod. Nothing else to report. I see you, too, are a man of culture.
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Sept 9, 2019 2:02:36 GMT
Also I feel like this PSA has already been made but I will make it again: Rhys is Lead, Hanks is Supporting. Regardless of whether or not this is true in actuality (I'm sure it is), do we know for sure that Sony is pushing them in those respective categories? We don't to my knowledge unless I'm missing something, which I could be because I haven't been following this year's awards race super closely at this point. So unless it's proven otherwise I'm still suspecting that they go with Hanks in lead and Rhys in supporting ... to me it's one of those things where it's "the Mr. Rogers movie" so why would you put Mr. Rogers himself in the supporting category when that feels sort of ... inorganic. Hanks is billed first, after all ... in fact he's the only one billed in the trailer ... plus, a massive star like Hanks is gonna fare significantly better in a leading category than Rhys, who despite being an Emmy-winner is still not really a "name" and hence will just naturally be seen as a supporting player (even if it is true that his character dominates the narrative).
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 9, 2019 2:06:28 GMT
Also I feel like this PSA has already been made but I will make it again: Rhys is Lead, Hanks is Supporting. Regardless of whether or not this is true in actuality (I'm sure it is), do we know for sure that Sony is pushing them in those respective categories? We don't to my knowledge unless I'm missing something, which I could be because I haven't been following this year's awards race super closely at this point. So unless it's proven otherwise I'm still suspecting that they go with Hanks in lead and Rhys in supporting ... to me it's one of those things where it's "the Mr. Rogers movie" so why would you put Mr. Rogers himself in the supporting category when that feels sort of ... inorganic. Hanks is billed first, after all ... in fact he's the only one billed in the trailer ... plus, a massive star like Hanks is gonna fare significantly better in a leading category than Rhys, who despite being an Emmy-winner is still not really a "name" and hence will just naturally be seen as a supporting player (even if it is true that his character dominates the narrative). From what I hear from those who saw it, Hanks actually is supporting and they'll obviously make a run at getting into the weaker, easier category this year. I don't think they'll bother running a serious campaign for Rhys aside from maybe a Globe nod; they'll focus their attention on Hanks.
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Sept 9, 2019 2:09:15 GMT
Regardless of whether or not this is true in actuality (I'm sure it is), do we know for sure that Sony is pushing them in those respective categories? We don't to my knowledge unless I'm missing something, which I could be because I haven't been following this year's awards race super closely at this point. So unless it's proven otherwise I'm still suspecting that they go with Hanks in lead and Rhys in supporting ... to me it's one of those things where it's "the Mr. Rogers movie" so why would you put Mr. Rogers himself in the supporting category when that feels sort of ... inorganic. Hanks is billed first, after all ... in fact he's the only one billed in the trailer ... plus, a massive star like Hanks is gonna fare significantly better in a leading category than Rhys, who despite being an Emmy-winner is still not really a "name" and hence will just naturally be seen as a supporting player (even if it is true that his character dominates the narrative). Rhys is not getting nominated in either category, and Hanks risks not getting nominated if he is pushed in Lead considering how strong that category is. I really don't understand why people think Hanks will go Lead. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Sept 9, 2019 2:14:18 GMT
What do you guys think about Maggie Smith getting a nod? People love her character.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 9, 2019 2:23:15 GMT
What do you guys think about Maggie Smith getting a nod? People love her character. Depends on if she a.) has a really showy part, and b.) if the film does well enough to stand on its own merits, rather than being a mere curiosity. I bet BAFTA will bite, if no one else.
|
|
jakob
Full Member
Posts: 827
Likes: 698
|
Post by jakob on Sept 9, 2019 2:40:34 GMT
I’ve taken Just Mercy out and put Jennifer Lopez in meaning it’s been an intense week.
BEST PICTURE 1917 (Universal) A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood (Sony) The Farewell (A24) Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox) The Irishman (Netflix) Joker (Warner Bros) Marriage Story (Netflix) 🏆 Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (Sony) Waves (A24)
BEST DIRECTOR Sam Mendes | 1917 Marielle Heller | A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood Lulu Wang | The Farewell Martin Scorsese | The Irishman Noah Baumbach | Marriage Story 🏆
BEST ACTOR Antonio Banderas | Pain and Glory Leonardo DiCaprio | Once Upon a Time In Hollywood Adam Driver | Marriage Story 🏆 Joaquin Phoenix | Joker Jonathan Pryce | The Two Popes
BEST ACTRESS Awkwafina | The Farewell Cynthia Erivo | Harriet Scarlett Johansson | Marriage Story 🏆 Saorise Ronan | Little Women Renee Zellwegger | Judy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Sterling K. Brown | Waves Willem Dafoe | The Lighthouse Tom Hanks | A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood🏆 Anthony Hopkins | The Two Popes Brad Pitt | Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laura Dern | Marriage Story 🏆 Jennifer Lopez | Hustlers Janelle Monae | Harriet Margot Robbie | Once Upon A Time In Hollywood Zhao Shuzen | The Farewell
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Farewell Marriage Story 🏆 One Upon A Time in Hollywood The Two Popes Waves
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood 🏆 The Irishman Joker Just Mercy Little Women
BEST EDITING 1917 A Beautiful Day In the Neighborhood Ford v Ferrari 🏆 Marriage Story Waves
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 1917 🏆 Ford v Ferrari The Irishman The Lighthouse Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 1917 Cats The Irishman Little Women Once Upon A Time In Hollywood 🏆
BEST COSTUME DESIGN Aladdin Harriet Little Women Once Upon A Time In Hollywood 🏆 Rocketman
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Bombshell 🏆 Joker Once Upon A Time In Hollywood Rocketman Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Ad Astra Avengers: Endgame The Irishman The Lion King 🏆 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST SOUND MIXING 1917 Ad Astra Avengers: Endgame Ford v Ferrari 🏆 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST SOUND EDITING 1917 🏆 Ad Astra Avengers: Endgame Ford v Ferrari Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 1917 🏆 Ad Astra Marriage Story Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Waves
BEST ANIMATED FILM The Adams Family Frozen 2 Missing Link How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Toy Story 4🏆
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 9, 2019 2:44:28 GMT
Also I feel like this PSA has already been made but I will make it again: Rhys is Lead, Hanks is Supporting. Regardless of whether or not this is true in actuality (I'm sure it is), do we know for sure that Sony is pushing them in those respective categories? We don't to my knowledge unless I'm missing something, which I could be because I haven't been following this year's awards race super closely at this point. So unless it's proven otherwise I'm still suspecting that they go with Hanks in lead and Rhys in supporting ... to me it's one of those things where it's "the Mr. Rogers movie" so why would you put Mr. Rogers himself in the supporting category when that feels sort of ... inorganic. Hanks is billed first, after all ... in fact he's the only one billed in the trailer ... plus, a massive star like Hanks is gonna fare significantly better in a leading category than Rhys, who despite being an Emmy-winner is still not really a "name" and hence will just naturally be seen as a supporting player (even if it is true that his character dominates the narrative). Mentioned in this article: www.indiewire.com/2019/09/oscars-2020-category-fraud-brad-pitt-robert-pattinson-matt-damon-1202171785/
|
|
|
Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 9, 2019 19:39:23 GMT
Going to give my take on a few films now that Telluride is over and TIFF has unveiled the majority of their big films:
Just Mercy came out looking a lot weaker than I (and most) expected. It’s reception was lukewarm at best and it’s currently barely green on MC without a single rave review. It’s currently below even what I consider the bare minimum for a middle brow that successfully aims for awards (Green Book, Lion, Hidden Figures, ect). It’s also going wide after noms are announced, so it won’t have the benefit of box office to help its chances. It’s also a lot more serious, without the light, borderline comedic/hopeful tone of those previously mentioned films, so I’m even a little skeptical of it will even function similarly as a crowdpleaser. It’s a very heavy, emotionally draining film. It could get by on how important it is and it’s subject matter, but it’s going to need to do better critically from here on out.
Jojo Rabbit was absolutely torn to shreds by critics. Currently 49 MC. While it will probably rebound a bit, probably not enough to survive all of award season and still end up being an across the board player. Some people will cite Vice, Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close, ect as precedent, but the difference is that those films weren’t unveiled at film festivals. They were under strict embargoes at the very last minute so that the bad buzz didn’t have as much time to take effect. They were also made by Directors that the Academy liked/loved. Aside from Rockwell, no one in this cast or crew has extensive award history. I’m not entirely sure how the Academy respond, but I don’t think it’s going to get much.
Dolemite managed great ink for Eddie Murphy, but it’s weakish as a vehicle overall. 71 MC is solid, pretty good even, but it’s got no chance at a BP nom which puts Murphy, despite his raves, in a tough spot for a nomination. He is also most likely the weakest actor contender Netflix will be juggling, so idk.. I don’t think the film has much of a chance in any other above the line category, so I’m thinking he misses for the Oscar nom. It played very well to the TIFF crowd, though, so best case scenario is that if wins the Audience award. And it’s possible. It would provide the film with a huge visibility boost and make me feel better about the chances of a Best Actor nom. Unless that happens, I think the Best Actor field is going to be too deep for him to breakthrough with a vehicle that isn’t all that strong.
ABDiTN was a success, becoming Heller’s third film in the last four years to do 80+ on MC. It even managed to win over a lot of the more cynical critics who are immune to more sentimental fare, and Hanks has his strongest raves since CP, possibly even since Cast Away. The reviews combined with the box office potential should make this a strong player and I feel good about Hanks finally breaking his long stretch of not getting nominated.
Ford v Ferrari and Hustlers are also strong, both with 80+ on MC. The former will definitely appeal to of the Academy and has potential to be a strong contender, but I wonder if this will be able to recoup its 100 million dollar budget and what (if any) impact a box office flop label would have? I’m struggling to think of many race car films that have slayed at the box office. Hustlers I am not buying as an awards film whatsoever. Lopez may be able to campaign enough to sneak into a fairly only supporting actress race, but that’s definitely as far as the Oscars will embrace it.
I’m also all in on Joker, especially after what happened at Cannes. I think it’s gettinf a BP nom and that Phoenix will be competitive for the win.
|
|
|
Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 9, 2019 19:58:49 GMT
Pic Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Two Popes The Irishman 1917 Little Women A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Parasite Joker
Director Noah Baumbach Quinten Tarantino Martin Scorsese Sam Mendes Bong Joon-ho
Actor Joaquin Phoenix Adam Driver Leonardo DiCaprio Jonathan Pryce Mark Ruffalo
Actress Cynthia Erivo Scarlett Johansson Renée Zellweger Saorise Ronan Awkwafina
Supporting Actor Brad Pitt Tom Hanks Anthony Hopkins Al Pacino Jaime Foxx
Supporting Actress Laura Dern Margot Robbie Zhao Schuzen Mery Streep Jennifer Lopez
Adapted Screenplay Little Women Joker A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Jojo Rabbit The Irishman
Original Screenplay A Marriage Story Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Two Popes The Farewell Parasite
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Sept 9, 2019 20:36:25 GMT
Going to give my take on a few films now that Telluride is over and TIFF has unveiled the majority of their big films: Just Mercy came out looking a lot weaker than I (and most) expected. It’s reception was lukewarm at best and it’s currently barely green on MC without a single rave review. It’s currently below even what I consider the bare minimum for a middle brow that successfully aims for awards (Green Book, Lion, Hidden Figures, ect). It’s also going wide after noms are announced, so it won’t have the benefit of box office to help its chances. It’s also a lot more serious, without the light, borderline comedic/hopeful tone of those previously mentioned films, so I’m even a little skeptical of it will even function similarly as a crowdpleaser. It’s a very heavy, emotionally draining film. It could get by on how important it is and it’s subject matter, but it’s going to need to do better critically from here on out. Jojo Rabbit was absolutely torn to shreds by critics. Currently 49 MC. While it will probably rebound a bit, probably not enough to survive all of award season and still end up being an across the board player. Some people will cite Vice, Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close, ect as precedent, but the difference is that those films weren’t unveiled at film festivals. They were under strict embargoes at the very last minute so that the bad buzz didn’t have as much time to take effect. They were also made by Directors that the Academy liked/loved. Aside from Rockwell, no one in this cast or crew has extensive award history. I’m not entirely sure how the Academy respond, but I don’t think it’s going to get much. Dolemite managed great ink for Eddie Murphy, but it’s weakish as a vehicle overall. 71 MC is solid, pretty good even, but it’s got no chance at a BP nom which puts Murphy, despite his raves, in a tough spot for a nomination. He is also most likely the weakest actor contender Netflix will be juggling, so idk.. I don’t think the film has much of a chance in any other above the line category, so I’m thinking he misses for the Oscar nom. It played very well to the TIFF crowd, though, so best case scenario is that if wins the Audience award. And it’s possible. It would provide the film with a huge visibility boost and make me feel better about the chances of a Best Actor nom. Unless that happens, I think the Best Actor field is going to be too deep for him to breakthrough with a vehicle that isn’t all that strong. ABDiTN was a success, becoming Heller’s third film in the last four years to do 80+ on MC. It even managed to win over a lot of the more cynical critics who are immune to more sentimental fare, and Hanks has his strongest raves since CP, possibly even since Cast Away. The reviews combined with the box office potential should make this a strong player and I feel good about Hanks finally breaking his long stretch of not getting nominated. Ford v Ferrari and Hustlers are also strong, both with 80+ on MC. The former will definitely appeal to of the Academy and has potential to be a strong contender, but I wonder if this will be able to recoup its 100 million dollar budget and what (if any) impact a box office flop label would have? I’m struggling to think of many race car films that have slayed at the box office. Hustlers I am not buying as an awards film whatsoever. Lopez may be able to campaign enough to sneak into a fairly only supporting actress race, but that’s definitely as far as the Oscars will embrace it. I’m also all in on Joker, especially after what happened at Cannes. I think it’s gettinf a BP nom and that Phoenix will be competitive for the win. Good summary. Dolemite Is My Name has fallen further and is now at 68. If Eddie Murphy is really not liked by the industry as is often said, I'm struggling to see how he makes it in such a crowded year for the category with a relatively weak vehicle.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 9, 2019 20:50:40 GMT
Hey. Hey, A24? Now's the perfect time to get off your ass and run that Lighthouse campaign hard.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Sept 9, 2019 21:27:01 GMT
Jennifer Lopez is supporting?
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Sept 9, 2019 23:38:57 GMT
I’m honestly very skeptical about “The Irishman”. The trailer didn’t really impress me and this movie really needs to deliver to get onto the big stage during the awards season. I agree with this. It helps that Scorsese is returning to his crime roots but I can't help but remember the last passion project he made that was years in development and how it looked undeniable from the outset because it was Marty and a weighty topic and a labor of love and then...nothing. The CGI is what concerns me, and I wasn't crazy about the cinematography in that trailer either. And the BP race is just getting more and more stacked. I can't imagine Netflix spending nearly 200M for a Scorsese film and letting it die. They will campaign the hell out of it. This isn't Silence.
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Sept 9, 2019 23:44:16 GMT
I agree with this. It helps that Scorsese is returning to his crime roots but I can't help but remember the last passion project he made that was years in development and how it looked undeniable from the outset because it was Marty and a weighty topic and a labor of love and then...nothing. The CGI is what concerns me, and I wasn't crazy about the cinematography in that trailer either. And the BP race is just getting more and more stacked. I can't confirm this but those who have the Empire article might be able to because this is being quoted a lot online: Pacino is apparently de-aged in EVERY scene he has in this movie (makes sense given his age and Hoffa's age) and I don't see one bit of a problem in the trailer which I'm watching on a crappier resolution than we'll see in the film. If this is true.......the CGI maybe turns out to be the non-story of the year and ........well at least it will win for visual effects The de-aging was very distracting in It 2 so they better pull this off.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 10, 2019 1:21:17 GMT
I dont think the Academy will eat that up. Maybe a screenplay nom or something. I would be shocked if that's all it got. Considering it has gotten super positive word out of test screenings, is Fox Searchlight's #1, is surprisingly emotional and will be a big crowd pleaser (definitely thinking it will be at least somewhere in the Top 3 at TIFF). I guess we'll get an idea later today but for now I'm thinking it gets noms for Picture, Director, Screenplay and Supporting Actress x2. Well... I've been wrong before
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2019 9:19:47 GMT
I am not going to stop beating The Good Liar drum until it premieres (because I really like the book ) but it's possible if she's worthy they run Mirren in Support (she's not support based on the book) and if worthy The Irishman is brawny enough to drag Paquin in (she may be worthy anyway of course). Yeah um, quoting my own post (lol) - not only the two names above but with the 3 "flops" Goldfinch, Jojo Rabbit, Laundromat which people had as placeholders........you could add Octavia Spencer back into the mix for Luce too - she's certainly worthy. People don't have to go begging for Jennifer Lopez to fill out the group - and it's September still - you have an Oscar winner, in a serious movie, that was an acting showcase (for the whole cast). Just have to campaign her .......and the two I mentioned above are winners too. The sudden J. Lo talk appears.............unlikely..........way too desperate...........I'm not buying it........not in September at least.
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Sept 10, 2019 11:41:04 GMT
Just Mercy came out looking a lot weaker than I (and most) expected. It’s reception was lukewarm at best and it’s currently barely green on MC without a single rave review. It’s currently below even what I consider the bare minimum for a middle brow Dolemite managed great ink for Eddie Murphy, but it’s weakish as a vehicle overall. 71 MC is solid, pretty good even, but it’s got no chance at a BP nom which puts Murphy, despite his raves, in a tough spot for a nomination. He is also most likely the weakest actor contender Netflix will be juggling, so idk.. I don’t think the film has much of a chance in any other above the line category, so I’m thinking he misses for the Oscar nom. It played very well to the TIFF crowd, though, so best case scenario is that if wins the Audience award. And it’s possible. It would provide the film with a huge visibility boost and make me feel better about the chances of a Best Actor nom. Unless that happens, I think the Best Actor field is going to be too deep for him to breakthrough with a vehicle that isn’t all that strong. I think especially after last year, using Metacritic as an excuse to bumrush some films and contenders out of the race just doesn't fly. Our last Best Picture winner Green Book has a 69 on metacritic. Our last Best Actor winner, Rami Malek came from a film with 49 on metacritic (which also got Best Picture nominated as well to boot). Best Picture nominated Vice has 61 on metacritic. It's pretty damned clear that Academy voters aren't checking metacritic scores to decide whether they like something. If it falls within their tastes, does well with audiences, an average or even low metacritic score is hardly a hindrance now to even winning, let alone being nominated. SAG are also pretty basic these days. They won't necessarily nominate all the arthouse shit with 90 on metacritic that critics are jizzing over, and could just as easily fall for the charms of Dolemite Is My Name or Just Mercy. In fact Dolemite has the kinds of ensemble cast that would fall right into SAG's wheelhouse these days. Murphy is still a major contender, and he'll probably win the comedy Globe. Will Dolemite Is My Name contend for a Best Pic nod? Too early to say. If audiences go wild over it, with recent Academy trends, it's hardly out of the realm of possibility. But when a film with almost 20 points lower on metacritic ( Bohemian Rhapsody) can get a Best Picture nod, and an average scored Green Book can win Best Picture, it's foolishly ignoring these recent trends that well recieved and successful crowdpleasers don't need Metacritic tongue bathes to score with AMPAS. I would not write off Just Mercy at all. You need to take into account how well movies will play with general audiences (and AMPAS and SAG steak eaters), not just critics.
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Sept 10, 2019 12:37:12 GMT
I'm not buying that JLo thing either.
And I insist Eddie Murphy won't be nominated. I'd like it but I can't see it happening.
|
|
|
Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 10, 2019 13:31:18 GMT
Just Mercy came out looking a lot weaker than I (and most) expected. It’s reception was lukewarm at best and it’s currently barely green on MC without a single rave review. It’s currently below even what I consider the bare minimum for a middle brow Dolemite managed great ink for Eddie Murphy, but it’s weakish as a vehicle overall. 71 MC is solid, pretty good even, but it’s got no chance at a BP nom which puts Murphy, despite his raves, in a tough spot for a nomination. He is also most likely the weakest actor contender Netflix will be juggling, so idk.. I don’t think the film has much of a chance in any other above the line category, so I’m thinking he misses for the Oscar nom. It played very well to the TIFF crowd, though, so best case scenario is that if wins the Audience award. And it’s possible. It would provide the film with a huge visibility boost and make me feel better about the chances of a Best Actor nom. Unless that happens, I think the Best Actor field is going to be too deep for him to breakthrough with a vehicle that isn’t all that strong. I think especially after last year, using Metacritic as an excuse to bumrush some films and contenders out of the race just doesn't fly. Our last Best Picture winner Green Book has a 69 on metacritic. Our last Best Actor winner, Rami Malek came from a film with 49 on metacritic (which also got Best Picture nominated as well to boot). Best Picture nominated Vice has 61 on metacritic. It's pretty damned clear that Academy voters aren't checking metacritic scores to decide whether they like something. If it falls within their tastes, does well with audiences, an average or even low metacritic score is hardly a hindrance now to even winning, let alone being nominated. SAG are also pretty basic these days. They won't necessarily nominate all the arthouse shit with 90 on metacritic that critics are jizzing over, and could just as easily fall for the charms of Dolemite Is My Name or Just Mercy. In fact Dolemite has the kinds of ensemble cast that would fall right into SAG's wheelhouse these days. Murphy is still a major contender, and he'll probably win the comedy Globe. Will Dolemite Is My Name contend for a Best Pic nod? Too early to say. If audiences go wild over it, with recent Academy trends, it's hardly out of the realm of possibility. But when a film with almost 20 points lower on metacritic ( Bohemian Rhapsody) can get a Best Picture nod, and an average scored Green Book can win Best Picture, it's foolishly ignoring these recent trends that well recieved and successful crowdpleasers don't need Metacritic tongue bathes to score with AMPAS. I would not write off Just Mercy at all. You need to take into account how well movies will play with general audiences (and AMPAS and SAG steak eaters), not just critics. Point taken, but last year feels like more of an exception to me, not the rule, and I certainly wouldn’t start making predictions for what would normally feel like a long shot from here on out because of it. I’d personally need to see that sort of thing happen again at least once before deciding that we’re in a new area, critics don’t matter, ect. Green Book combined two of the most winning ingredients for the Academy (the power of friendship and race relations told from the perspective of a white man) and ran with it. A reverse Driving Miss Daisy which also won 30 years ago. The Blind Side had a much lower metascore in the 50’s and still nabbed a win for Bullock over Streep and even a BP nom with a similar formula. That sort of thing is simply irresistible to voters. And when your film has even the slightest bit of awards sheen and it makes 1 billion dollars, yeah, it’s going to be critic proof. Regarding Murphy, you also did not acknowledge the fact that Netflix already has two contenders who, on paper, feel stronger. If Irishman hits, we could be looking at a whopping THREE contenders for Netflix that have stronger vehicles and may or may not feel stronger in the overall race. I think that is what’s going to be thr biggest obstacle for his chances. I liked Just Mercy and hope I’m wrong, but again, it lacks the cheery tone of films like Hidden Figures, Green Book, ect. It’s heavy, it’s not going to leave people feeling good. It’s more akin to Green Mile. It strikes me as something that needs acclaim a bit more and if not that, certainly box office, but it’s not widely opening until after nominations. I agree though that we shouldn’t write it off. I think it could play better to the industry as traditional bait often does.
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Sept 10, 2019 13:41:24 GMT
I'm not buying that JLo thing either. And I insist Eddie Murphy won't be nominated. I'd like it but I can't see it happening. Yeah Murphy doesn't apply as much to me either - different year, different competition. Could he get in ........sure, will he? I tend to doubt it and I especially doubt it over Pryce who is going to be talked about in acting terms as the very first thing about his film. Murphy to Malek doesn't connect to me - Freddie Mercury is a superstar loved by millions, Rudy Ray Moore is a cult figure. I think Just Mercy is way bigger than people think race chasing movie with no white savior.........that's catnip to the woke Academy......not saying it's in but easily could be, just the year may be too deep.
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Sept 10, 2019 13:45:29 GMT
Regarding Murphy, you also did not acknowledge the fact that Netflix already has two contenders who, on paper, feel stronger. If Irishman hits, we could be looking at a whopping THREE contenders for Netflix that have stronger vehicles and may or may not feel stronger in the overall race. I think that is what’s going to be thr biggest obstacle for his chances. I had mentioned this before. Netflix spent almost 200 mil. only for the making of the film. They'll give it all they got to get as many nominations and wins as possible. The way I see it (and before having seen the Irishman) even De Niro has better chances for a nod. Given that Marriage Story is also produced by Netflix and they'll push Driver, Murphy doesn't seem their first priority for a strong Oscar campaign.
|
|