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Post by alexanderblanchett on Sept 8, 2019 9:01:19 GMT
BEST PICTURE
A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood. Least Confident Harriet The Irishman Joker Little Women Marriage Story 1917 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Most confident The Two Popes
BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig: Little Women Sam Mendes: 1917 Todd Phillips: Joker Least Confident Martin Scorsese: The Irishman Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Most confident
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Robert De Niro: The Irishman. Least Confident Leonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Most Confident Adam Driver: Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix: Joker Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo: Harriett Scarlett Johansson: Marriage Story. Most Confident Felicity Jones: The Aeronauts. Least Confident Saiorse Ronan: Little Women Renee Zellweger: Judy
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Tom Hanks: A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood Anthony Hopkins: The Two Popes Al Pacino: The Irishman Joe Pesci: The Irishman Least Confident Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Most Confident
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Annette Bening: The Report Laura Dern: Marriage Story. Most Confident Janelle Monae: Harriett Margot Robbie: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Least Confident Meryl Streep: The Laundromat
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 8, 2019 11:42:22 GMT
No Jojo Rabbit anywhere?????
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 8, 2019 13:33:12 GMT
As less predictions as possible:
BEST PICTURE
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Harriet A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood Little Women The Irishman Joker Marriage Story
BEST DIRECTOR
Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Greta Gerwig: Little Women Marielle Heller: A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood Martin Scorsese: The Irishman Noah Baumbach: Marriage STory
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Leonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver: Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix: Joker
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo: Harriett Saoirse Ronan: Little Women Renee Zellweger: Judy Scarlett Johansson: Marriage Story
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Al Pacino: The Irishman Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Tom Hanks: A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Annette Bening: The Report Laura Dern: Marriage Story
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 8, 2019 13:44:55 GMT
Hmm...so far, nothing is really flopping from early festival reactions (except The Laundromat I guess, but we'll see if Streep can overcome that), so it's going to be tough to whittle it down. A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood and Dolemite Is My Name have very positive reactions. Just Mercy seems like perfect audience friendly middlebrow Oscarbait (ie Green Book or Hidden Figures) and it's reactions seem like it's tailor made for Oscar voters.
Eddie Murphy is in the Best Actor race with his reactions, and Wesley Snipes might get a supporting push based on reactions, and he's the type of "comeback story" that has a narrative for a nod. I think Jamie Foxx looks extremely good for a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Just Mercy, while Michael B Jordan is on the bubble for a Best Actor nod as Foxx has the more transformative role, but could get in if AMPAS falls for the movie. I'd never underestimate Christian Bale at this point with AMPAS, and I think if campaigned supporting for Ford Vs Ferrari, he's got a chance of getting a nod with his reviews. Actually, looking at reviews so far (100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic) Ford Vs Ferrari might be being wildly underestimated in general, and could be a contender across the board (including Matt Damon for Best Actor and Best Picture).
I don't think Jonathon Pryce will happen, when he's part of a two-hander with Anthony Hopkins that can't really be category frauded.
Interesting season. There are going to be a lot of big "snubs" in several categories, considering how many options are now becoming available.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Sept 8, 2019 13:55:01 GMT
No Jojo Rabbit anywhere????? I dont think the Academy will eat that up. Maybe a screenplay nom or something.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Sept 8, 2019 13:57:09 GMT
Hmm...so far, nothing is really flopping from early festival reactions (except The Laundromat I guess, but we'll see if Streep can overcome that), so it's going to be tough to whittle it down. A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood and Dolemite Is My Name have very positive reactions. Just Mercy seems like perfect audience friendly middlebrow Oscarbait (ie Green Book or Hidden Figures) and it's reactions seem like it's tailor made for Oscar voters. Eddie Murphy is in the Best Actor race with his reactions, and Wesley Snipes might get a supporting push based on reactions, and he's the type of "comeback story" that has a narrative for a nod. I think Jamie Foxx looks extremely good for a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Just Mercy, while Michael B Jordan is on the bubble for a Best Actor nod as Foxx has the more transformative role, but could get in if AMPAS falls for the movie. I'd never underestimate Christian Bale at this point with AMPAS, and I think if campaigned supporting for Ford Vs Ferrari, he's got a chance of getting a nod with his reviews. Actually, looking at reviews so far ( 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic) Ford Vs Ferrari might be being wildly underestimated in general, and could be a contender across the board (including Matt Damon for Best Actor and Best Picture). I don't think Jonathon Pryce will happen, when he's part of a two-hander with Anthony Hopkins that can't really be category frauded. Interesting season. There are going to be a lot of big "snubs" in several categories, considering how many options are now becoming available. I agree, it is unusual that so far none of the potential contenders flopped and that this makes the race just more complicated and unpredictable. Yes there will be many major snubs.... lets see of the rest of the potential award contender deliver as well... could develop into one of the most interesting races in years.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 8, 2019 14:08:09 GMT
I still say there's a big trend in play that we're missing and that Venice supports in the trend zeitgeist - movies with big ideas and scope are going to be in this year - Joker, the Polanski movie (in Venice not here obviously), Irishman, OUATIH, Ford vs. Ferrari.
All of those just based on trailers look way more movie-ish than films about divorce, a small time 70s exploitation star (Murphy), men of religion TALKING for 2 hours, lawyer talking in court (Just Mercy).
I'm sure I will like all of those - they look like they are made for me in some cases even - but they look really small and TV-ish and people are mixing circle jerk festival reactions with the Academy reactions.......I don't see it and I am still saying McKellen/Mirren in The Good Liar - playing 0 festivals - are bigger threats than some of these festival pics on paper.
The Supporting Actress category is staggeringly weak so far and is almost hard to conceive of looking much better tbh.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 8, 2019 16:22:06 GMT
I still say there's a big trend in play that we're missing and that Venice supports in the trend zeitgeist - movies with big ideas and scope are going to be in this year - Joker, the Polanski movie (in Venice not here obviously), Irishman, OUATIH, Ford vs. Ferrari. All of those just based on trailers look way more movie-ish than films about divorce, a small time 70s exploitation star (Murphy), men of religion TALKING for 2 hours, lawyer talking in court (Just Mercy). I'm sure I will like all of those - they look like they are made for me in some cases even - but they look really small and TV-ish and people are mixing circle jerk festival reactions with the Academy reactions.......I don't see it and I am still saying McKellen/Mirren in The Good Liar - playing 0 festivals - are bigger threats than some of these festival pics on paper. The Supporting Actress category is staggeringly weak so far and is almost hard to conceive of looking much better tbh. I see what you're saying but I don't think it's any kind of a trend that will spread inside the Academy all that much. If anything, it's something that I personally am very happy about because I love these kinds of 'Movie' movies. But you know as well as I do that the Academy picks are all over the place. There's always room for big idea movies as well as for smaller and even TV-ish fare. Look at what just won Best Picture. And you yourself point out that there'll be both big idea movies and smaller movies in the play, and all of them are getting equal amounts of positive reactions. There's no reason to dismiss festival reactions like that because the fact is that they do end up being reflected in the awards season. And as usual, the campaigns really matter. We all know that Netflix is gonna push the shit out of Marriage Story (we already know it's gonna be their longest playing theatrical release) and it doesn't really need to be some big cinematic thing. It's just something that really affects people emotionally and sometimes that's all that's needed. Same about two religious dudes talking - these days it doesn't really matter whether it's cinematic, what matters is that people are charmed and engaged by it. Although having some sort of a 'progressive' liberal message is what ultimately helps in the current awards climate - and that is what's definitely a trend among the latest several Best Picture winners. I'd say the big ideas and score movie trend was the zeitgeisty awards thing of the 90s which was also a time when Best Picture winners routinely won a whole bunch of Oscars. These days it's all a tad different. But I personally am VERY happy that we're having these big movies come out this year - I really dig that stuff.
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Post by stephen on Sept 8, 2019 16:49:51 GMT
I still say there's a big trend in play that we're missing and that Venice supports in the trend zeitgeist - movies with big ideas and scope are going to be in this year - Joker, the Polanski movie (in Venice not here obviously), Irishman, OUATIH, Ford vs. Ferrari. All of those just based on trailers look way more movie-ish than films about divorce, a small time 70s exploitation star (Murphy), men of religion TALKING for 2 hours, lawyer talking in court (Just Mercy). I'm sure I will like all of those - they look like they are made for me in some cases even - but they look really small and TV-ish and people are mixing circle jerk festival reactions with the Academy reactions.......I don't see it and I am still saying McKellen/Mirren in The Good Liar - playing 0 festivals - are bigger threats than some of these festival pics on paper. I agree with Jango in that even though these trends might be worth anticipating on a personal level, I doubt the Academy gives much of a damn about "scope." They will respond to personal stories just as readily as big, sweeping tales . . . if not more so, especially if those personal stories can reflect larger themes in microcosm. Yeah, it's looking pretty thin on the ground even by Academy standards. Attempting to sift through possible coattail nominations hasn't plumped up the field much at all. I'm expecting some random left-field names to be popping up in the near future. (Funnily enough, I wonder if the perennially namechecked Streep will be able to even crack the lineup, considering one of her "character choices" in The Laundromat is already courting controversy; she probably still will, but it's kinda funny that even she's up in the air at this point.)
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Post by JangoB on Sept 8, 2019 16:57:10 GMT
Yeah, I considered coming up with full predictions in this thread but I kinda froze on the Supporting Actress category because I don't have a clue where to properly go aside from Laura Dern. It seems so weak that I'm kinda starting to buy the Jennifer Lopez predictions especially now that her film is getting good ink. Who the hell knows, if Joker is a big enough thing then maybe even Frances Conroy has a shot. Aside from Streep, Bening and other actresses that are often being mentioned in this category.
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Post by stephen on Sept 8, 2019 17:04:06 GMT
I was thinking more Zazie Beetz, riding high of her Atlanta success. I'm also thinking Janelle Monae, who's been meteorically rising in prominence lately and who had something of a banner year in 2016, if Harriet sticks the landing. Also, is Lopez supporting in Hustlers? I think that'd be neat as hell -- she's a very fine actress with the right material. I also think we might be sleeping on Florence Pugh, who actually has a banner year going on and if Little Women hits the mark, she might reap the benefits.
But who am I kidding? It's probably gonna be Margot Robbie in an utter waste of a slot, Streep taking up space in another tepidly-reviewed film, someone who category frauds to supporting to take advantage of the weak field, and two others who will most likely be coattail nominees for whatever movie they like the most.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 8, 2019 17:08:35 GMT
The only Supporting Actress push I can see from Joker is Frances Conroy, and even she would be a stretch.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 8, 2019 17:12:43 GMT
I was thinking more Zazie Beetz, riding high of her Atlanta success. I'm also thinking Janelle Monae, who's been meteorically rising in prominence lately and who had something of a banner year in 2016, if Harriet sticks the landing. Also, is Lopez supporting in Hustlers? I think that'd be neat as hell -- she's a very fine actress with the right material. I also think we might be sleeping on Florence Pugh, who actually has a banner year going on and if Little Women hits the mark, she might reap the benefits. But who am I kidding? It's probably gonna be Margot Robbie in an utter waste of a slot, Streep taking up space in another tepidly-reviewed film, someone who category frauds to supporting to take advantage of the weak field, and two others who will most likely be coattail nominees for whatever movie they like the most. I was thinking about Florence Pugh as well but we really need to see some reviews to find out who really stands out there. I'm also curious about "Jojo Rabbit" and Thomasin Mckenzie in particular whose role seems to be one that elicits the most emotional response in that movie based on the trailer. And yeah, Lopez is apparently supporting. And getting very good notices. Some critics organizations will definitely include her in their awards bit I'm afraid it may be a Tiffany Haddish situation. Although who knows, "Hustlers" is being received really well.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 8, 2019 17:13:15 GMT
I am not going to stop beating The Good Liar drum until it premieres (because I really like the book ) but it's possible if she's worthy they run Mirren in Support (she's not support based on the book) and if worthy The Irishman is brawny enough to drag Paquin in (she may be worthy anyway of course).
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 8, 2019 17:16:25 GMT
I’m honestly very skeptical about “The Irishman”. The trailer didn’t really impress me and this movie really needs to deliver to get onto the big stage during the awards season.
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Post by quetee on Sept 8, 2019 17:21:40 GMT
BEST PICTURE A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood. Least ConfidentHarriet The Irishman Joker Little Women Marriage Story 1917 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Most confidentThe Two Popes BEST DIRECTOR Greta Gerwig: Little Women Sam Mendes: 1917 Todd Phillips: Joker Least ConfidentMartin Scorsese: The Irishman Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Most confidentBEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE Robert De Niro: The Irishman. Least ConfidentLeonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Most ConfidentAdam Driver: Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix: Joker Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes. BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE Cynthia Erivo: Harriett Scarlett Johansson: Marriage Story. Most ConfidentFelicity Jones: The Aeronauts. Least ConfidentSaiorse Ronan: Little Women Renee Zellweger: Judy BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Tom Hanks: A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood Anthony Hopkins: The Two Popes Al Pacino: The Irishman Joe Pesci: The Irishman Least ConfidentBrad Pitt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Most ConfidentBEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Annette Bening: The Report Laura Dern: Marriage Story. Most ConfidentJanelle Monae: Harriett Margot Robbie: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Least ConfidentMeryl Streep: The Laundromat Margot for Once.....hmmmm no.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 8, 2019 17:30:16 GMT
No Jojo Rabbit anywhere????? I dont think the Academy will eat that up. Maybe a screenplay nom or something. I would be shocked if that's all it got. Considering it has gotten super positive word out of test screenings, is Fox Searchlight's #1, is surprisingly emotional and will be a big crowd pleaser (definitely thinking it will be at least somewhere in the Top 3 at TIFF). I guess we'll get an idea later today but for now I'm thinking it gets noms for Picture, Director, Screenplay and Supporting Actress x2.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 8, 2019 17:38:01 GMT
Todd Phillips is at the very least getting a DGA nomination, and his movie just won Venice. I’d be wary of leaving him out of Best Director.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 8, 2019 17:39:03 GMT
I’m honestly very skeptical about “The Irishman”. The trailer didn’t really impress me and this movie really needs to deliver to get onto the big stage during the awards season. I agree with this. It helps that Scorsese is returning to his crime roots but I can't help but remember the last passion project he made that was years in development and how it looked undeniable from the outset because it was Marty and a weighty topic and a labor of love and then...nothing. The CGI is what concerns me, and I wasn't crazy about the cinematography in that trailer either. And the BP race is just getting more and more stacked.
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Post by quetee on Sept 8, 2019 17:40:15 GMT
Todd Phillips is at the very least getting a DGA nomination, and his movie just won Venice. I’d be wary of leaving him out of Best Director. You know the routine, we let our personal bias dictate the race.
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Post by quetee on Sept 8, 2019 17:41:26 GMT
I can't wait to hear the response to Harriet cause I'm not feeling that story. I would rather something like Waves score the nod.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 8, 2019 17:46:01 GMT
I’m honestly very skeptical about “The Irishman”. The trailer didn’t really impress me and this movie really needs to deliver to get onto the big stage during the awards season. I agree with this. It helps that Scorsese is returning to his crime roots but I can't help but remember the last passion project he made that was years in development and how it looked undeniable from the outset because it was Marty and a weighty topic and a labor of love and then...nothing. The CGI is what concerns me, and I wasn't crazy about the cinematography in that trailer either. And the BP race is just getting more and more stacked. I can't confirm this but those who have the Empire article might be able to because this is being quoted a lot online: Pacino is apparently de-aged in EVERY scene he has in this movie (makes sense given his age and Hoffa's age) and I don't see one bit of a problem in the trailer which I'm watching on a crappier resolution than we'll see in the film. If this is true.......the CGI maybe turns out to be the non-story of the year and ........well at least it will win for visual effects
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 8, 2019 20:13:58 GMT
Like my August predictions, just taking some shots in the dark ... i.e. just making predictions for fun, not because I think I'm right, no one can be "right" at this point ... BEST PICTURE1917A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood***HarrietThe IrishmanJojo RabbitJoker Little WomenMarriage Story The ReportSome notes: - 1917 is about as much a lock as an unscreened film could be, or at least it feels that way. To my knowledge it doesn't even have any festival screenings lined up (yet) and we won't get much word before its Christmas release (great spot), but it could definitely be that late emerging threat. It'll surely be BAFTA's big movie of the year, and everything about it suggests the Academy will eat it up ... not just a surefire BP nom but perhaps one of the top contenders, too.
- Beautiful Day I still think is the BP frontrunner and the response it just got from its TIFF premiere just seems to further confirm that ... it'll be this year's Green Book crowdpleaser but (hopefully) less controversial ... not to mention I think this movie will be pretty big commercially as far as biopics go. No-brainer here.
- Harriet is probably the one I'm most skeptical about ... the trailer made it seem run-of-the-mill even by the Academy's standards and it could very well just get acting love or none at all ... but it premieres at TIFF soon so the reactions/responses will likely change how we view this as a contender one way or another. Mostly I'm including it now because the Academy will always have a spot for an African American narrative; there are other options of course ... it might be Waves, Just Mercy, etc. but for now this seems best on paper to me.
- Preeeety confident with The Irishman, maybe more than I should be? It'll have to be a pretty massive flop for it to not have a guaranteed spot here ... considering all the caliber involved that seems nearly impossible.
- Jojo Rabbit I was doubting showing up here at all until the latest trailer dropped ... at first I was expecting more of a Death of Stalin-esque satire that won't appeal to the Academy much at all, now I'm more or less echoing mhynson's thoughts on this ... looks surprisingly uplifting and kinda sweet and overall the kind of tone the Academy will eat up while also touting it as being some sort of "political statement." Never really saw a Taika movie becoming an awards contender, but this looks like a departure from his previous work in a way that's much more awards-friendly (perhaps even on purpose), plus it's also gonna be Searchlight's biggest contender and I don't see them getting shutout here.
- Joker is a weird one and I almost can't believe I'm predicting it but right now it'd be dumb not to. There are some unknowns here ... Todd Philips will seem like an obstacle, but a year after Peter Farrelly won BP it's hard to really consider that a potential problem ... more importantly there's also the apparent controversy surrounding it but as of now I don't see that being much of a problem, yes there will be a lot of toxic discourse surrounding it on Film Twitter mostly but as we learned last year that's not a niche that really influences the Academy's judgement much, and even if it did I'm pretty sure that Film Twitter will have all but forgotten about Joker come December 19 (at the latest) so I don't think it'll be much of an obstacle ultimately. Otherwise it seems pretty damn safe ... I mean it just won the Golden Lion from a Lucrecia Martel-headed jury so the question really is, "Who doesn't this movie appeal to?"
- Little Women I'm reeeeally not sure about but I'm going for it. Costume dramas are far from a sure thing these days but there's a certain type of costume drama that usually is a sure thing and that's the kind that the film's trailer seemed to advertise (and it looks good I think) ... almost a similar tone to The Favourite and I think this film will largely be loved by the same crowd (i.e. Film Twitter favorite of the year), except for MAR who are definitely going to hate this for little to no good reason. And I think it has similar awards success as The Favourite ... I mean, less popular at BAFTA and probably not a contender for an acting award or anything else major, that said it still feels like a "10 noms, 1 win" type of movie to me.
- Marriage Story I think is the next safest bet after Beautiful Day ... pretty rapturous reception despite the awards-shutout, it's "baity," a contender in many major categories, Baumbach likely seen as overdue for major awards success, etc... basically a lock at this point.
- The Report is another one I'm unsure about especially because Sundance premieres haven't had the best luck lately but this has an ideal release and a good enough studio behind it to get it there. It's a talky docudrama and one that's political (or at least will pretend to be), there's always a slot for a movie of that type ... we though it would go to The Laundromat but after its trailer/reactions this one seems far more likely. One of those that surely won't be a contender for the win but a pretty good bet for the nom, definitely.
- Some alts: Waves which still feels too "minor" for me to be picking it plus I'm not sure where else it'll have support, but it could very well turn into the sleeper hit of the season and will probably be A24's big push so who knows; Just Mercy and The Two Popes which look great on paper but do seem too TV movie-y to be big contenders ... even in our shifting cinema climate the Academy still tends to favor more "cinematic" content; OUATIH of course which I think ultimately gets beat out by the shinier newer things (and will take a backseat on Sony's agenda) and wasn't quite acclaimed enough for it to carry momentum that far I think, but still we certainly shouldn't count it out ... not at all in fact.
BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach | Marriage Story Bong Joon-ho | Parasite
Marielle Heller | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Sam Mendes | 1917***Martin Scorsese | The IrishmanBEST ACTOR
Adam Driver | Marriage Story
Tom Hanks | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Eddie Murphy | Dolemite is My NameJoaquin Phoenix | Joker***Jonathan Pryce | The Two Popes- Right now the biggest thing working against Phoenix is that his film wasn't written by Anthony McCarten ... so part of me still really wants to back Pryce, but for him it might be a "the nomination is the win" type case and The Two Popes certainly won't be as big as Joker ... overall there's too much working in Joaquin's favor to bet against him.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo | HarrietScarlett Johansson | Marriage Story***Saoirse Ronan | Little Women
Jodie Turner-Smith | Queen & Slim Renée Zellweger | Judy- Legitimately dunno who has a shot at that fifth slot right now so I just threw Turner-Smith's name in there, but who's to say how that film will even fare, it could go either way really. ScarJo is maybe too controversial to land the win but I think enough people will view her as something of an "overdue" candidate, plus her film is probably much more of a major contender than any of the others listed ... so I'll go with her for now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown | Waves Anthony Hopkins | The Two Popes***Al Pacino | The Irishman Joe Pesci | The Irishman Matthew Rhys | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - This is a weird category with an almost abnormal amount of contenders (at least on paper) and no clear frontrunner for the win. Last year we saw a lot of success for TV actors and that could translate well for guys like Brown and Rhys ... SKB especially is very beloved and a lot of people probably wanna see him as an Oscar nominee, so even though I haven't really seen individual notices for him I'm still putting him in there. Rhys and Brown could both have a shot to win for the reasons listed, and otherwise among this group there's three guys looking to be a two-time winner ... Pacino of course seems the most likely to claim that crown but I'm not sold on it, especially if word is true that Pesci is the one with the scene-stealing role. Now Pesci is a good choice but I'm not sure I can see him becoming a two-timer when Pacino isn't yet and he'd be right there next to him on the ballot ... so I'm kind of just going with Hopkins by default, even though Pryce has gotten more of the individual mentions ... ehhhh ... I really don't know here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSAnnette Bening | The Report***Laura Dern | Marriage StoryJanelle Monáe | HarrietMargot Robbie | Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood Meryl Streep | Little Women - Yeah I know ... Streep apparently only has one five-minute scene, well it still looks like a scene-stealing turn and obviously never underestimate Streep's power to nab an undeserved nomination, plus she like Dern has the BLL popularity this year on her side which likely makes at least a marginal difference. This category really feels like a huge clusterfuck right now with a lot of unknowns so who knows ... I sure don't.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYHarriet Marriage Story***Once Upon a Time ... in HollywoodParasiteThe ReportBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood***The IrishmanJojo RabbitJokerLittle Women
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 8, 2019 20:28:16 GMT
Parasite is being hailed as the best film of the year, surely it will be a contender for a Best Picture nomination.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 9, 2019 1:16:00 GMT
Like my August predictions, just taking some shots in the dark ... i.e. just making predictions for fun, not because I think I'm right, no one can be "right" at this point ... BEST PICTURE1917A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood***HarrietThe IrishmanJojo RabbitJoker Little WomenMarriage Story The ReportSome notes: - 1917 is about as much a lock as an unscreened film could be, or at least it feels that way. To my knowledge it doesn't even have any festival screenings lined up (yet) and we won't get much word before its Christmas release (great spot), but it could definitely be that late emerging threat. It'll surely be BAFTA's big movie of the year, and everything about it suggests the Academy will eat it up ... not just a surefire BP nom but perhaps one of the top contenders, too.
- Beautiful Day I still think is the BP frontrunner and the response it just got from its TIFF premiere just seems to further confirm that ... it'll be this year's Green Book crowdpleaser but (hopefully) less controversial ... not to mention I think this movie will be pretty big commercially as far as biopics go. No-brainer here.
- Harriet is probably the one I'm most skeptical about ... the trailer made it seem run-of-the-mill even by the Academy's standards and it could very well just get acting love or none at all ... but it premieres at TIFF soon so the reactions/responses will likely change how we view this as a contender one way or another. Mostly I'm including it now because the Academy will always have a spot for an African American narrative; there are other options of course ... it might be Waves, Just Mercy, etc. but for now this seems best on paper to me.
- Preeeety confident with The Irishman, maybe more than I should be? It'll have to be a pretty massive flop for it to not have a guaranteed spot here ... considering all the caliber involved that seems nearly impossible.
- Jojo Rabbit I was doubting showing up here at all until the latest trailer dropped ... at first I was expecting more of a Death of Stalin-esque satire that won't appeal to the Academy much at all, now I'm more or less echoing mhynson's thoughts on this ... looks surprisingly uplifting and kinda sweet and overall the kind of tone the Academy will eat up while also touting it as being some sort of "political statement." Never really saw a Taika movie becoming an awards contender, but this looks like a departure from his previous work in a way that's much more awards-friendly (perhaps even on purpose), plus it's also gonna be Searchlight's biggest contender and I don't see them getting shutout here.
- Joker is a weird one and I almost can't believe I'm predicting it but right now it'd be dumb not to. There are some unknowns here ... Todd Philips will seem like an obstacle, but a year after Peter Farrelly won BP it's hard to really consider that a potential problem ... more importantly there's also the apparent controversy surrounding it but as of now I don't see that being much of a problem, yes there will be a lot of toxic discourse surrounding it on Film Twitter mostly but as we learned last year that's not a niche that really influences the Academy's judgement much, and even if it did I'm pretty sure that Film Twitter will have all but forgotten about Joker come December 19 (at the latest) so I don't think it'll be much of an obstacle ultimately. Otherwise it seems pretty damn safe ... I mean it just won the Golden Lion from a Lucrecia Martel-headed jury so the question really is, "Who doesn't this movie appeal to?"
- Little Women I'm reeeeally not sure about but I'm going for it. Costume dramas are far from a sure thing these days but there's a certain type of costume drama that usually is a sure thing and that's the kind that the film's trailer seemed to advertise (and it looks good I think) ... almost a similar tone to The Favourite and I think this film will largely be loved by the same crowd (i.e. Film Twitter favorite of the year), except for MAR who are definitely going to hate this for little to no good reason. And I think it has similar awards success as The Favourite ... I mean, less popular at BAFTA and probably not a contender for an acting award or anything else major, that said it still feels like a "10 noms, 1 win" type of movie to me.
- Marriage Story I think is the next safest bet after Beautiful Day ... pretty rapturous reception despite the awards-shutout, it's "baity," a contender in many major categories, Baumbach likely seen as overdue for major awards success, etc... basically a lock at this point.
- The Report is another one I'm unsure about especially because Sundance premieres haven't had the best luck lately but this has an ideal release and a good enough studio behind it to get it there. It's a talky docudrama and one that's political (or at least will pretend to be), there's always a slot for a movie of that type ... we though it would go to The Laundromat but after its trailer/reactions this one seems far more likely. One of those that surely won't be a contender for the win but a pretty good bet for the nom, definitely.
- Some alts: Waves which still feels too "minor" for me to be picking it plus I'm not sure where else it'll have support, but it could very well turn into the sleeper hit of the season and will probably be A24's big push so who knows; Just Mercy and The Two Popes which look great on paper but do seem too TV movie-y to be big contenders ... even in our shifting cinema climate the Academy still tends to favor more "cinematic" content; OUATIH of course which I think ultimately gets beat out by the shinier newer things (and will take a backseat on Sony's agenda) and wasn't quite acclaimed enough for it to carry momentum that far I think, but still we certainly shouldn't count it out ... not at all in fact.
BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach | Marriage Story Bong Joon-ho | Parasite
Marielle Heller | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Sam Mendes | 1917***Martin Scorsese | The IrishmanBEST ACTOR
Adam Driver | Marriage Story
Tom Hanks | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Eddie Murphy | Dolemite is My NameJoaquin Phoenix | Joker***Jonathan Pryce | The Two Popes- Right now the biggest thing working against Phoenix is that his film wasn't written by Anthony McCarten ... so part of me still really wants to back Pryce, but for him it might be a "the nomination is the win" type case and The Two Popes certainly won't be as big as Joker ... overall there's too much working in Joaquin's favor to bet against him.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo | HarrietScarlett Johansson | Marriage Story***Saoirse Ronan | Little Women
Jodie Turner-Smith | Queen & Slim Renée Zellweger | Judy- Legitimately dunno who has a shot at that fifth slot right now so I just threw Turner-Smith's name in there, but who's to say how that film will even fare, it could go either way really. ScarJo is maybe too controversial to land the win but I think enough people will view her as something of an "overdue" candidate, plus her film is probably much more of a major contender than any of the others listed ... so I'll go with her for now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown | Waves Anthony Hopkins | The Two Popes***Al Pacino | The Irishman Joe Pesci | The Irishman Matthew Rhys | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - This is a weird category with an almost abnormal amount of contenders (at least on paper) and no clear frontrunner for the win. Last year we saw a lot of success for TV actors and that could translate well for guys like Brown and Rhys ... SKB especially is very beloved and a lot of people probably wanna see him as an Oscar nominee, so even though I haven't really seen individual notices for him I'm still putting him in there. Rhys and Brown could both have a shot to win for the reasons listed, and otherwise among this group there's three guys looking to be a two-time winner ... Pacino of course seems the most likely to claim that crown but I'm not sold on it, especially if word is true that Pesci is the one with the scene-stealing role. Now Pesci is a good choice but I'm not sure I can see him becoming a two-timer when Pacino isn't yet and he'd be right there next to him on the ballot ... so I'm kind of just going with Hopkins by default, even though Pryce has gotten more of the individual mentions ... ehhhh ... I really don't know here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSAnnette Bening | The Report***Laura Dern | Marriage StoryJanelle Monáe | HarrietMargot Robbie | Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood Meryl Streep | Little Women - Yeah I know ... Streep apparently only has one five-minute scene, well it still looks like a scene-stealing turn and obviously never underestimate Streep's power to nab an undeserved nomination, plus she like Dern has the BLL popularity this year on her side which likely makes at least a marginal difference. This category really feels like a huge clusterfuck right now with a lot of unknowns so who knows ... I sure don't.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYHarriet Marriage Story***Once Upon a Time ... in HollywoodParasiteThe ReportBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood***The IrishmanJojo RabbitJokerLittle WomenWhy no confidence in Hollywood? Not even DiCaprio?
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