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Post by stephen on Sept 28, 2019 16:00:17 GMT
So what are we thinking? Does The Irishman have enough muscle to get both Al and Joe in? I feel like Pesci is getting more love for being more against type and low-key, which may appeal more to critics, whereas Pacino is getting love for playing the louder, more quintessentially Pacino-type role, which will likely be favored by industry voters.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 28, 2019 16:03:05 GMT
I guess Pacino will be there. Pesci probably not, the category will be very strong this year.
Of course I may change my mind when I watch the movie.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 28, 2019 16:05:02 GMT
So what are we thinking? Does The Irishman have enough muscle to get both Al and Joe in? I feel like Pesci is getting more love for being more against type and low-key, which may appeal more to critics, whereas Pacino is getting love for playing the louder, more quintessentially Pacino-type role, which will likely be favored by industry voters. I think they both make it it. I got Pitt Hanks (god help me) Pacino Pesci Hopkins
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Post by Viced on Sept 28, 2019 16:06:04 GMT
I'd like to think Pacino is a lock... and that Pesci will get in too if they really go crazy for the movie.
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Post by quetee on Sept 28, 2019 16:11:29 GMT
So what are we thinking? Does The Irishman have enough muscle to get both Al and Joe in? I feel like Pesci is getting more love for being more against type and low-key, which may appeal more to critics, whereas Pacino is getting love for playing the louder, more quintessentially Pacino-type role, which will likely be favored by industry voters. I think they both make it it. I got Pitt Hanks (god help me) Pacino Pesci Hopkins So you're thinking no newbies? Isn't that pretty rare?
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Post by stephen on Sept 28, 2019 16:14:56 GMT
I'd like to think Pacino is a lock... and that Pesci will get in too if they really go crazy for the movie. If you were a betting man, who do you think is likelier for the win: Pacino or Pitt? I feel like the latter's low-key approach might get eclipsed by the former's more bombastic, scene-stealing work.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 28, 2019 16:19:13 GMT
I think they both make it it. I got Pitt Hanks (god help me) Pacino Pesci Hopkins So you're thinking no newbies? Isn't that pretty rare? Rare but not unheard of (see 2012). But honestly the next most likely candidates : Bale, Alda, Foxx, Dafoe and Chalemet aren’t newbies either so it looks like a very likely situation even if I’m not 100 percent right. Sterling K Brown being maybe the most likely newby.
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Post by Viced on Sept 28, 2019 16:20:08 GMT
I'd like to think Pacino is a lock... and that Pesci will get in too if they really go crazy for the movie. If you were a betting man, who do you think is likelier for the win: Pacino or Pitt? I feel like the latter's low-key approach might get eclipsed by the former's more bombastic, scene-stealing work. If BP really comes down to Irishman vs. Hollywood, than I'd say whoever's film wins out will win supporting. But it's tough since Pitt is pretty much a co-lead while Pacino is supporting.... but supporting in a 3 and a half hour movie is enough screentime for a lead role in a 2 hour movie... lol. Right now, my gut says Pacino.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 28, 2019 16:22:50 GMT
I may have written off Pesci too early. Just read the reviews, and he's got great ink. Still think only Pacino will get in, but Pesci could make it in if The Irishman emerges as the frontrunner.
As for who'll win, again, it could well come down to who has the stronger movie between Pitt and Pacino. For now, I'll stick with Pitt, primarily because he is having a bit of a comeback-banner year.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 28, 2019 16:27:40 GMT
I'd like to think Pacino is a lock... and that Pesci will get in too if they really go crazy for the movie. If you were a betting man, who do you think is likelier for the win: Pacino or Pitt? I feel like the latter's low-key approach might get eclipsed by the former's more bombastic, scene-stealing work. I'd say there are other elements that favor Pacino who has more ways to a win but Pitt has the two easiest paths to a win: Pitt - no Oscar, 4 nods, cool as fnck character and cool matters - it's movie star big time Pacino - real life character (big plus), evokes his great recent HBO work, tragic aura around the character too - he probably makes you laugh AND cry I'd guess.........but he has BA win, is 79 and has 5 Triple Crown wins which does matter to me - the voting bodies span groups, they are aware and they know he's gotten a lot over the years. There's no need to reward him I'd guess......
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Post by quetee on Sept 28, 2019 16:30:49 GMT
So you're thinking no newbies? Isn't that pretty rare? Rare but not unheard of (see 2012). But honestly the next most likely candidates : Bale, Alda, Foxx, Dafoe and Chalemet aren’t newbies either so it looks like a very likely situation even if I’m not 100 percent right. Sterling K Brown being maybe the most likely newby. Hmmm, could be right. It appears right now Sterling, Taika and Wesley are the most likely newbies. This category is actually going to be interesting.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 28, 2019 18:18:44 GMT
If you were a betting man, who do you think is likelier for the win: Pacino or Pitt? I feel like the latter's low-key approach might get eclipsed by the former's more bombastic, scene-stealing work. If BP really comes down to Irishman vs. Hollywood, than I'd say whoever's film wins out will win supporting. But it's tough since Pitt is pretty much a co-lead while Pacino is supporting.... but supporting in a 3 and a half hour movie is enough screentime for a lead role in a 2 hour movie... lol. Right now, my gut says Pacino. This is exactly where I am right now. I think that OUATIH has the navel gazing appeal that they really like this decade (The Artist, Birdman), but I've been predicting OUATIH to win Picture and Director without screenplay which seems somewhat odd because Tarantino has already won that category twice. Not that he can't win Best Picture and Director too, but I could see some voters thinking that he's already been rewarded enough. Plus, he still has one more film before he retires, so I can see some voters thinking that maybe they can award him director and/or picture at that time. On the other hand, Scorsese feels like someone that they would want to give at least two Best Director awards too since Eastwood, Iñárritu, Lee, Spielberg, and Stone all have two wins right now, and I feel like The Irishman will have more of an epic/labor of love appeal to it which will makeup for the lack of an "social importance" issue. Not to discount Scorsese tackling masculinity, but this decade the issues that some of the Best Picture winners tackled seem pretty basic and obvious for people to get, so I'm not sure how The Irishman fits into that spectrum yet. Plus it also helps that aside from Jojo Rabbit which has a lot of problems that it will have to overcome, I don't really see anything else that has that "importance" that would get close enough to win unless Dark Waters is a lot better than the trailer looks. While OUATIH is an original film that did very well at the box office and paired together two of the biggest stars in the world, The Irishman reunited Scorsese with De Niro, Pesci, and Keitel, and was the first time that he worked with Al Pacino, so I have to give the edge to The Irishman here by a hair. There's the Netflix factor, but I actually think that this will help push The Irishman over the top because no other studio is going to give Scorsese that much money to make The Irishman, and a win for Netflix is a win against all the comic book movies, all the live action remakes, all the franchise madness, etc. So I have to predict Pacino to win not that they have to award The Irishman an acting award, but Pitt already has an Oscar, albeit for producing, and his role is an atypical winning role, and my feeling is now that OUATIH might be the film that's nominated for a lot but doesn't win anything. It's not considered the best film of the year compared to The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Parasite, and none of the actors are overdue to win or have unbeatable roles. Also while it was a labor of love for Tarantino, I don't think that factor can compare to what Scorsese did with The Irishman.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Sept 29, 2019 15:55:16 GMT
You think they'll campaign Pacino as "Scent of a Woman sucked so let's have him win for real!"? It might be his best shot. Right now I'm at
Pitt Pacino Hopkins Pesci Hanks
An interesting list, yet a completely underwhelming one at the same time.
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Post by stephen on Sept 29, 2019 16:03:11 GMT
You think they'll campaign Pacino as "Scent of a Woman sucked so let's have him win for real!"? It might be his best shot. I don't think they'll look at it like that, but rather have the mindset of "a legend like Pacino deserves two Oscars."
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Post by quetee on Sept 29, 2019 16:19:14 GMT
You think they'll campaign Pacino as "Scent of a Woman sucked so let's have him win for real!"? It might be his best shot. I don't think they'll look at it like that, but rather have the mindset of "a legend like Pacino deserves two Oscars." Well it is ridiculous that he has one. He plays bio character so he has an edge over Brad.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 16:27:01 GMT
You think they'll campaign Pacino as "Scent of a Woman sucked so let's have him win for real!"? It might be his best shot. Right now I'm at Pitt Pacino Hopkins Pesci Hanks An interesting list, yet a completely underwhelming one at the same time. Well that's a fncking lie so I'm gonna say .........no. They will have to campaign him as legendary actor, legendary director, first time together, landmark film ......etc. I still think this 5 Triple Crown wins hurts him - many members are also members of other groups also (TV) - there is no real need to reward him this much at 79 years of age imo: None of the actors listed below won the triple crown of acting and this is how many triple crown wins they would still need to just equal Pacino's record total of 5 (some are deceased but listed as a frame of reference):
5 behind him : Phoenix, Clift, Dafoe, Pitt 4 behind him : DiCaprio, Oldman, Bridges, PSH, Bale 3 behind him : DeNiro, Hanks, Newman, Hackman 2 behind him : Duvall, Washington, Spacey, Nicholson, Dustin Hoffman, Day-Lewis, Lemmon, Brando, Hopkins
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 29, 2019 16:27:14 GMT
Do people keep forgetting that Pitt has an Oscar? I really don’t think he can play the overdue card over Al Pacino who most would say deserves more than one.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 16:46:16 GMT
Has there ever been an instance when TV and Stage awards made Oscar voters decide not to vote for somebody? I can't for the life of me understand why that would matter.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 29, 2019 16:48:26 GMT
Pacino's main issue is really strong internal competition. Saw a reviewer today touting Pesci for the supporting Oscar win, so that may become an issue. At least it's only two of them, instead of three like Django Unchained. But he'll likely be splitting support with his co-star.
Pitt may coast his way to a pretty easy victory almost by default, as almost everyone being touted as his "competition" already has an acting Oscar (Pacino, Pesci, Hanks, Hopkins, Foxx etc), and he's considered overdue for an acting Oscar. Dafoe has the overdue narrative also, but it remains to be seen if his film will have enough appeal to propel him strongly into the race as it looks very uncommercial.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 16:53:14 GMT
Has there ever been an instance when TV and Stage awards made Oscar voters decide not to vote for somebody? I can't for the life of me understand why that would matter. Well first of all he's a unique case.........BUT, phrase it differently and make it less specific : He's 79, won everything you can win, he doesn't need to win anymore and his career is close to ending - I'm not saying I'd mind if he won ...........but there is a little of "you've had a great career and your nomination at age 79 is the reward".......they may not be looking at what he's won but people are aware he's been lauded a lot. All I'm saying.......
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 29, 2019 16:53:24 GMT
Do people keep forgetting that Pitt has an Oscar? I really don’t think he can play the overdue card over Al Pacino who most would say deserves more than one. Considering it wasn't for acting or even directing, I imagine even Academy members probably have a hard time remembering.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 29, 2019 16:55:21 GMT
Well first of all he's a unique case So there is no precedent and this is just conjecture based on nothing.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 17:04:14 GMT
Well first of all he's a unique case So there is no precedent and this is just conjecture based on nothing. There is no precedent, to this situation, correct. That I can recall at least..... It is more a "gut feeling" I'd say than conjecture .........I love the dude, but to pretend that it's always a level playing field and all that isn't really true.......you can't say "he should beat Pitt because he's a legend, he should have 5 Oscars blah blah blah" and then discount all the acclaim he's gotten in being a legend to start with which is known and common knowledge.........it's part of the landscape........
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 29, 2019 17:06:48 GMT
I also don't see exactly why this "5 triple crown wins" will hurt his chances. Nobody will vote another nominee over Pacino just because Al already has, say, 2 Emmy wins...
And I don't see Netflix campaigning for Pacino in the lines of "Scent of Woman sucked (it didn't) so let's reward him for real"... After all it's been 27 years since then.
But I agree it's kind of ridiculous he's only got one Oscar. Then again, I can't be objective about Pacino...
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 29, 2019 17:10:07 GMT
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