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Post by alexanderblanchett on Aug 4, 2019 19:18:08 GMT
It is as you said in another thread.... most of them are frauds ( I expect Hopkins to be a fraud as well if he ends up here)... I think the only ones who truly are supporting of these mentioned above are Dafoe and Pesci Well, rumors are Dafoe might be in the leading category, so... no he's not You see.. just further proof for my assumption
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Aug 8, 2019 4:20:01 GMT
1. Pitt 2. Hanks 3. Pacino 4. Foxx 5. Dafoe
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 16, 2019 21:34:10 GMT
Having just seen OUATIH, I really believe that if Pitt is placed in the supporting category, it won't be a fraud...
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Post by SeanJoyce on Aug 19, 2019 1:33:57 GMT
That fact that people are in here seriously debating Brad Pitt's role in One Upon a Time in Hollywood as Supporting is a fuckin' joke and I why I can't stand this Academy bullshit.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 19, 2019 11:29:37 GMT
That fact that people are in here seriously debating Brad Pitt's role in One Upon a Time in Hollywood as Supporting is a fuckin' joke and I why I can't stand this Academy bullshit. Uhh... He's supporting imo. And no, it's not a fuckin' joke.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Sept 16, 2019 16:26:29 GMT
1. Brad Pitt 2. Al Pacino 3. Anthony Hopkins 4. Tom Hanks 5. Sterling K Brown
Pitt is honestly great in Hollywood, controversy or not. He feels like an easy supporting nominee. Only at number 1 because nothing else has stood out yet. Pacino could ride the Netflix money that got two unknown Mexican actresses nominations last year. A nice welcome back even if the film isn't perfect. Hopkins similar reasoning. Tom Hanks is getting harder to stand behind since his film hasn't been blowing too many people away, and he's had a streak of misses. Maybe if his campaign people use that face. Sterling K Brown has the emmys, and Waves could come from out of nowhere.
Others:
Dafoe keeps coming up for The Lighthouse, but I'm still not convinced that thing is even getting real awards buzz. Pesci is in the conversation because everyone else is, but I'm not sure it's getting two supporting spots. Jamie Foxx is the standout of Just Mercy, however he's got a lot to fight through. Tracy Letts apparently has the scenes. And I've got Noah Jupe laying around as my dark horse just because.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 16, 2019 17:01:12 GMT
Alda Hanks Hopkins Pacino Pitt
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 16, 2019 17:27:46 GMT
Is Alda that good in Marriage Story? I think it's the first time I read his name in any list of the five possible nominees.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 16, 2019 18:28:24 GMT
Is Alda that good in Marriage Story? I think it's the first time I read his name in any list of the five possible nominees. I've seen a few reviews that mention him, but I think it's just more likely this category has thinned out now, and he has a chance to coattail on the strength of his film like Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook. My predictions: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in HollywoodAnthony Hopkins, The Two PopesTom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the NeighborhoodPossible depending on the late contenders: Alan Alda, Marriage Story - Makes perfect sense to me as someone that coattails based on the strength of his film. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit - I guess I wrote Jojo Rabbit off too early based on reviews. He also seems to be in the stage now where they'll nominate him for anything to make up for passing him over for so long. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari - I don't know if he's going leading or supporting, and unfortunately it doesn't seem like reviews are strong enough for this to be an above the line contender. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse - I've doubted this for awhile although I've kept him in my top 10 just in case, I was wrong. I just don't see Dafoe getting another lone nomination unless he was so strong that he was definitely going to win, which I don't see happening this year. I guess it's possible that The Lighthouse is nominated for something else, but I think A24 will stick with the safer The Farewell for its main push, and that Dafoe will pop up at the Gothams and Spirits and what not, but I don't think an Oscar nomination is happening. Unseen Contenders Al Pacino, The IrishmanJoe Pesci, The IrishmanBill Camp or Tim Robbins from Dark WatersJohn Lithgow, BombshellCould pick up a nomination or two somewhere, but probably unlikely for the Oscar nomination: Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy - Just Mercy could have really used winning or placing at TIFF as a boost, but since it didn't get one there, I don't really think this is going that far. Maybe a random SAG nomination, but that's about it. Sterling K. Brown, Waves - He's very well liked, so I could see him sweeping someday, but unfortunately Waves really fell after Telluride. Someone from Knives Out - I thought it would place at TIFF, but when that didn't happen, I saw it's path for more than an Original Screenplay and maybe Production Design nomination go with it.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Sept 16, 2019 19:16:35 GMT
Will this change your predictions guys?
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 16, 2019 19:22:43 GMT
The way I see it, if Eddie Murphy could score a nod for Dolemite, then why not Wesley Snipes get one in supporting? I don't see either of the two happening but I'd certainly like it.
And I disagree the category is weak. The way I see it, Hanks and Pitt are the frontrunners atm and will compete hard and we haven't yet seen Pesci, Pacino, Dafoe, Bale...
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Sept 16, 2019 19:39:13 GMT
Will this change your predictions guys? Interesting development...
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 16, 2019 19:51:57 GMT
If things we're equal, the only people I could see beating Pitt, would be Pacino (if nodded) (real life role, great historical figure), Hopkins or Hanks. Pesci has won for a mobster before.......Lithgow I'm guessing is too small.
But all things are not equal .......Pacino has an Oscar as does Hopkins and Hanks has 2, Pacino has 5 more triple crown wins than Pitt and a few more than any other actor (ever) including Hanks and Hopkins.........and he's 80 - there's no need to reward him even if he gives a great performance - and that pains me to say that.
On the other hand people like Pitt rarely win for ever being "just themselves" in a film but everything has lined up it seems to me perfectly - he literally would be winning for being Joe Cool my problems with the 3rd act aside.......on some level I actually think he maybe could win without even campaigning too.......almost makes it cooler actually in a way.
It's very Cliff Booth.....
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 16, 2019 19:57:19 GMT
"You never know" Pitt throws in so not as official as the headline makes it seem, and after getting a nom (which he will) he may easily change his thinking. Anyway, most "experts" have Pitt or Hanks as their predicted wins but it's still Pacino right now. You don't put a movie in several festival spots if you think it's a disaster and they clearly don't think so, and even if the movie is mixed, Pacino on paper is the standout and once nom'd I see as undeniable for a 2nd win.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 16, 2019 20:27:45 GMT
But all things are not equal .......Pacino has an Oscar as does Hopkins and Hanks has 2, Pacino has 5 more triple crown wins than Pitt and a few more than any other actor (ever) including Hanks and Hopkins.........and he's 80 - there's no need to reward him even if he gives a great performance - and that pains me to say that. I don't think Pacino having 2 Emmys and 2 Tonys is going to affect how the Oscars vote. What counts at the Oscars is that Pacino has an Oscar while Pitt doesn't but, if anything, they might feel Pacino is under-awarded given his legendary career. I say this often and it's no less true because of it, but a more important factor will be how The Irishman is received. If it becomes a bigger player than OUaTiH, I don't see why Pacino can't win if he has the reviews. De Niro is not winning, Scorsese could even if it won't be easy, but Pacino becomes a good place to reward it. That's actually not far from my reasoning for why I think Pitt will win. OUaTiH is looking like a top 3 contender and Pitt is probably the easiest place to give it an above-the-line win.
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Post by stephen on Sept 16, 2019 20:34:16 GMT
Will this change your predictions guys? Publicly stating you aren't going to campaign is a campaign in itself. Mo'Nique did the same thing. This isn't some sort of selfless altruism on Pitt's part. He doesn't need to work the circuit because he's one of the biggest movie stars on the planet.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Sept 16, 2019 20:48:18 GMT
Will this change your predictions guys? Publicly stating you aren't going to campaign is a campaign in itself. Mo'Nique did the same thing. This isn't some sort of selfless altruism on Pitt's part. He doesn't need to work the circuit because he's one of the biggest movie stars on the planet. Exactly what I thought.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 16, 2019 20:49:03 GMT
Publicly stating you aren't going to campaign is a campaign in itself. Mo'Nique did the same thing. Would you say it was also a campaign tactic when Phoenix said he was over the Oscars and awards campaigns?
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Post by stephen on Sept 16, 2019 20:52:56 GMT
Publicly stating you aren't going to campaign is a campaign in itself. Mo'Nique did the same thing. Would you say it was also a campaign tactic when Phoenix said he was over the Oscars and awards campaigns? I think if it was, it was an extremely ridiculous way to go about it. Pitt's statement still treats the whole thing as a nice event and accomplishment, but makes it about the work and the art. Phoenix called it "bullshit" and "a carrot he didn't want." It should also be pointed out that this is kind of Pitt's M.O. of late. He was pretty well absent from the 12 Years a Slave campaign, to the point that a lot of people forget that he won an Oscar that night for it (did he even make a speech that night?). He's very much about letting the work and other people speak for itself. And with this being a Tarantino joint starring two of the biggest movie stars around, it's not like he has to do that heavy lifting like a lot of people do when they campaign. He can get away with doing the bare minimum (i.e. showing up to the awards, attending a luncheon or a Q&A here and there, etc.), and the studio and PR campaign can do the rest for him.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 16, 2019 21:02:14 GMT
I think if it was, it was an extremely ridiculous way to go about it. Pitt's statement still treats the whole thing as a nice event and accomplishment, but makes it about the work and the art. Phoenix called it "bullshit" and "a carrot he didn't want." I don't think it's fair to decide if someone was being honest or not based entirely on how crassly they worded it. And it's not like Phoenix didn't backtrack on his comments right away:
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Post by stephen on Sept 16, 2019 21:06:40 GMT
I think if it was, it was an extremely ridiculous way to go about it. Pitt's statement still treats the whole thing as a nice event and accomplishment, but makes it about the work and the art. Phoenix called it "bullshit" and "a carrot he didn't want." I don't think it's fair to decide if someone was being honest or not based entirely on how crassly they worded it. And it's not like Phoenix didn't backtrack on his comments right away: I've long suspected he did that in large part due to pressure from Weinstein, which I've written about elsewhere. I don't think Phoenix is entirely altruistic either about it, but more importantly, I think he was just being incredibly blind to the fact that campaigning is about more than yourself, but about your movie. His comments hurt The Master overall, and I would bet dollars to donuts Weinstein dumped the movie to focus on Silver Linings Playbook and Django Unchained, the former of which would have people kissing the ring more readily and openly, and the latter was Tarantino. I should point out that I'm not criticizing Pitt's decision here; I'm just saying that his comments will have no bearing on the awards race, as he doesn't need to actively work the circuit to still be in the running. He can get away with doing the bare minimum.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Sept 16, 2019 21:12:39 GMT
I've long suspected he did that in large part due to pressure from Weinstein, which I've written about elsewhere. I don't think Phoenix is entirely altruistic either about it, but more importantly, I think he was just being incredibly blind to the fact that campaigning is about more than yourself, but about your movie. His comments hurt The Master overall By the same token, wouldn't it make sense that the more seasoned Pitt already knows all this and is therefore being more deferential in saying he doesn't care about Oscars in order to not hurt his movies? I'm not necessarily even arguing that Pitt is being honest and really doesn't care about Oscars. I'm saying he deserves the benefit of the doubt, just like Phoenix does. You're right, I don't think whether or not Pitt campaigns will be very important to his chances.
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Post by stephen on Sept 16, 2019 21:18:22 GMT
I've long suspected he did that in large part due to pressure from Weinstein, which I've written about elsewhere. I don't think Phoenix is entirely altruistic either about it, but more importantly, I think he was just being incredibly blind to the fact that campaigning is about more than yourself, but about your movie. His comments hurt The Master overall By the same token, wouldn't it make sense that the more seasoned Pitt already knows all this and is therefore being more deferential in saying he doesn't care about Oscars in order to not hurt his movies? I'm not necessarily even arguing that Pitt is being honest and really doesn't care about Oscars. I'm saying he deserves the benefit of the doubt, just like Phoenix does. You're right, I don't think whether or not Pitt campaigns will be very important to his chances. Oh yeah, Pitt absolutely knows this -- I'm not denying that. He knows the game and he knows how it works. He knows how to pay lip service to the Academy by not insulting them. More and more, we're seeing actors starting to eschew the active campaign trail in favor of letting the work speak for itself, and it's succeeding more and more often (i.e. Mo'Nique, Mark Rylance). If Phoenix hadn't opened his gob in 2012, or if he'd been a bit more political in how he'd spoken rather than riffing the way he did, he might've stood a fighting chance because the work was strong, and Weinstein backing him and his film with more force might've been able to withstand DDL. But no one likes to be called "bullshit," as everyone was associating Phoenix's comments about campaigning with the Oscars in general. He handled the whole thing abysmally, whereas Pitt's doing it the best way you can: acknowledge the Oscars being a good thing, but not wanting to pursue it because it's "all about the work." The Oscars like to have that veneer of respectability of acknowledging cinema as an art form, and they'd love to play into Pitt's comments by rewarding him for "not playing politics", even though what he did and said is the epitome of playing politics.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Sept 16, 2019 23:44:27 GMT
Brad Pitt Tom Hanks Anthony Hopkins Al Pacino Alan Alda - Jaime Foxx Christian Bale
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Sept 17, 2019 13:56:55 GMT
Timothee Chalamet, Little Women Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes Al Pacino, The Irishman Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
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