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Post by alexanderblanchett on Aug 3, 2019 14:56:21 GMT
Very open race. Here wo go for now:
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Annette Bening: The Report Cate Blanchett: Where'd You Go Bernadette? (could go lead but in the book its more of a supporting role) Laura Dern: Marriage Story Janelle Monae: Harriett Margot Robbie: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Aug 8, 2019 4:16:16 GMT
My 5 right now.
1. Dern 2. Bening 3. Spencer 4. Shuzen 5. Pugh
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Sept 16, 2019 16:17:36 GMT
There's not much here yet, but there's like 8 films that still need to screen realistically?
1. Laura Dern 2. Scarlett Johansson 3. Jennifer Lopez 4. Annette Bening 5. Shuzen Zhou
Dern is the closest I've heard to a lock in the category, but that doesn't mean much. Johansson is going to be in two highly likely Best Pic nominees, so I'm still putting her down for the double dip. Lopez has come out of nowhere but the campaign will be all on her since it's STX handling the film. Bening just always seems to pop up because it's her, but The Report doesn't seem to be gaining anything solid. Zhou I'm not confident in but she's the films emotional core, if it connects enough then maybe.
Others:
Robbie I personally feel doesn't deserve it, not that she was bad or anything. If it wasn't a Tarantino film she wouldn't even be here. Pugh is possible of Little Women becomes a true success, but I still feel that's a mostly commercial play.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 16, 2019 17:00:27 GMT
Dern Lopez Pugh Robbie Shuzhen
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avnermoriarti
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Post by avnermoriarti on Sept 20, 2019 7:46:33 GMT
Looks like another wasteland of a year, I'm rooting for Spencer, she deserves it so much particularly this year.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Sept 20, 2019 15:35:25 GMT
For Luce? I keep seeing her name pop up but that barely played anywhere. I missed it only being around me for like a week. It looked good but there's like nothing going for it.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 20, 2019 16:51:35 GMT
1. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - I guess she could get in for Bombshell instead, but I don't think it really matter since Dern or even Lopez is more likely to win.
2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story - It's only September, so it's possible she could lose but she has everything going for her in this category. Beloved veteran who has found acclaim on tv and will also have Big Little Lies 2 to help her during her awards run, and likely in one of the strongest films if not the strongest film in the category with a killer monologue.
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers - I could see the Globes going for her, and maybe Hustlers even gets a SAG Ensemble nomination, but this feels like the classic Stallone/Murphy/Rourke type of nomination mixed in with the media wanting it to happen like Depp in Black Mass/Aniston in Cake to make awards season more exciting. I really don't think Oscars will bite. She can build off of this, but this just wasn't a performance, imo, that can lead her to winning even in supporting after almost 20 years of mostly forgettable or worse movies. In a stronger year, I don't even think she'd be nominated, but luck is on her side this year.
4. Annette Bening, The Report - I don't know, but I'm running out of options. It feels like it's been forgotten, but Amazon is still taking this to festivals probably trying to coattail off the success of Driver in Marriage Story. Plus, with The Two Popes going Adapted, I think there's a spot in Original that the screenplay could sneak into, so Bening might not be a lone nominee.
5. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell - If voters actually watch it, I think she's in, but getting enough voters to watch it might be a problem.
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - I guess I have to put her back in now after Jojo Rabbit won at TIFF. Double noms are very difficult to pull off though, but if she's likely winning Best Actress, which I believe she will, they could nominate her in both categories to shore up her win and to reward her for a banner year like a Foxx in Ray/Collateral situation.
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women - I wish I could write her off completely, but this feels like a year where she really wants to get nominated so it will probably happen.
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women - If Streep wasn't right there, I would feel better about Pugh's chances for this, but it seems like Little Women might be Streep's only hope now, and I can see voters lazily namechecking Streep even if Aunt March is such a nothing role.
9. Taylor Russell, Waves - She's been singled out a lot from the reviews that I've seen, so I expect a lot of breakthrough awards/nominations for her. I think Waves is going to be too out there for most voters there for the Oscar nomination.
10. Anna Paquin, The Irishman - It looks like former winners Larson and Hathaway probably aren't going to be in the mix at least just going by their trailers, and based on reviews for Just Mercy, but maybe Paquin won't have the same bad luck.
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Post by stephen on Sept 20, 2019 17:29:36 GMT
I'll try and address each one in turn:
1. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - I guess she could get in for Bombshell instead, but I don't think it really matter since Dern or even Lopez is more likely to win. Robbie's looking safer and safer just by the sheer desolation of the year, but Christ, I really don't fancy imagining a world where she gets nominated for that when at least Margaret Qualley and Julia Butters actually did something in her own film. It would be entirely a nomination based purely on her name than on anything she does in the movie, which obviously happens a great deal in this category in particular, but it's still frustrating.
Dern fits the bill for a winner in this category: highly-respected veteran in a major Picture contender, whose win could give it the juice it needs to take the big prize. The role seems like it plays to Dern's strengths, and with her latterday resurgence, it seems only a matter of time, and the time might be now. I'm predicting Lopez for a SAG nomination that throws everyone into a tizzy, but I can't see BAFTA going for her and they might run her co-lead at the Globes... but I'd be very surprised if she goes further than that. Pleased if she did, but still surprised. I really don't think this is happening, and I feel like every time Bening has a film released, people think it's her time... but I'm not buying it. Feels too much like Truth and when people were banging the Redford drum. I actually think she's looking safer and safer for the nomination. A24 still has to put in some work, and I highly doubt she has a shot at the win, but I'd probably put her above Lopez and Bening in terms of likelihood. I haven't been keeping up with the Jojo reviews, but I guess McKenzie isn't a factor anymore? I remember people saying she would be the likelier nominee. Anyway, they could definitely push Johansson here to shore her Lead Actress run, and it seems Jojo is indeed a threat for the big prize. If Johansson is in both of the presumed favorites for Best Picture, it stands to reason she might get in for both. Ugh. I hate to think this might happen, but it's a weak year on paper and it's Meryl Streep. I guess they're not bothering to push her for The Laundromat for fear of potential controversy? Pugh feels like a BAFTA player, and she had a hell of a year. I think she's likelier than Streep because she's got a much bigger part, but then again, it's Streep and voters are lazy. Yeah, I feel like this would need a huge critical push to make any sort of a dent, and while this category is kinder to breakthrough newcomers than in Best Actress, it's not always a given unless the movie stands a chance on its own. I feel like the only reason people are putting Paquin into the ring is because she's a former winner, and while that doesn't necessarily hurt, is the role good enough to warrant that comeback nod? Remains to be seen. But I'm really leery on predicting anything Irishman-related because the hype has been high for years on it that, quite honestly, it's going to let down some contingent and it's unlikely to live up to all the expectations.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 20, 2019 17:40:26 GMT
More instinct that logic I guess. Driver also has The Report and I don't see Marriage Story as being something that earns a lot of acting nods, and I've never felt confident about predicting Johansson for anything. see, this is why I hate making early predictions ftr I'm still kinda happy about my supporting actress predictions, minus Spencer and maaaybe Shuzen. Still think Benning and Dern look like shoo-ins in a weak field and Maggie Smith looks ripe for a crowd-pleasing pick especially with Downton getting solid reviews (it seems exactly the kind of movie to nab an acting nod for someone of Smith's caliber, and everyone already loves that character/performance, annnd it might have traction in production and costume design too so yeah, she's definitely a threat) I think we're name-dropping Streep a bit too much. Isn't she only supposed to have five minutes? Here's my lineup as of September 20:Dern Benning Robbie ( Bombshell) Smith Shuzen* it's tempting to put J-Lo in the 5th spot but January is a long ways away and I'm not sure Hustlers is going to be able to hold up that momentum. It has all the hype right now and is definitely looking good for Globe nods but it's going to be a tough uphill battle. I can see the voters defaulting to a more "serious" pick with Shuzen, especially if Smith nabs the populist slot and I'm thinking she does. As for Spencer, I've put her on the backburner because no one's talking about her. Like at all. If she starts picking up nominations from the critics' groups she'll be back in the conversation. She's going to need the critical support to get in the race and be the only nominee for such a small film, and I don't know if she's going to get it. We'll see.
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Post by sirjeremy on Sept 20, 2019 20:39:06 GMT
I think we're name-dropping Streep a bit too much. Isn't she only supposed to have five minutes? No, she has much more than that, and her screentime includes a baity scene.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 20, 2019 21:04:25 GMT
I think we're name-dropping Streep a bit too much. Isn't she only supposed to have five minutes? No, she has much more than that, and her screentime includes a baity scene. Oh, shit!! She's getting nominated again...
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Sept 20, 2019 23:00:17 GMT
In an ideal world Cho Yeo Jeong(Parasite)would be a front runner in this category,but I don't think that's going to happen.
Laura Dern Jennifer Lopez Annette Bening Zhao Shuzhen Taylor Russell
I think Russell might be the dark horse here.The lack of festival play and late release date will hurt Pugh's chances,so I'm ruling her out.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Sept 20, 2019 23:59:14 GMT
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women - I wish I could write her off completely, but this feels like a year where she really wants to get nominated so it will probably happen. I’m telling you guys, I really think you can write her off completely. It’s a glorified cameo, she had more to do in Mary Poppins Returns. Pugh will be he one nominated, if nominated.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 21, 2019 0:45:45 GMT
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women - I wish I could write her off completely, but this feels like a year where she really wants to get nominated so it will probably happen. I’m telling you guys, I really think you can write her off completely. It’s a glorified cameo, she had more to do in Mary Poppins Returns. Pugh will be he one nominated, if nominated. I would never write Meryl Streep off. She gets nominated for who she is - and not necessarily because of the role. Supporting Actress is also not that competitive this year.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Sept 21, 2019 6:34:02 GMT
I’m telling you guys, I really think you can write her off completely. It’s a glorified cameo, she had more to do in Mary Poppins Returns. Pugh will be he one nominated, if nominated. I would never write Meryl Streep off. She gets nominated for who she is - and not necessarily because of the role. Supporting Actress is also not that competitive this year. Well, nearly everyone seems to be dropping her from their predictions for The Laundromat. Also, if Meryl just got nominated just for the sake of being herself, she would also have nominations for Mary Poppins, Ricki and the Flash, Mamma Mia, Hope Springs, etc. She is nominated a LOT, true, but it almost always has to do with the role. Most of her nominations are for lead roles, and most of them are baity. Her performance in LW isn’t even remotely nominatable. It’s less than what she did in Suffragette, another role everyone and their mother at the start of the year was predicting her for. Streep is Streep, but she is barely an afterthought whereas Florence Pugh is an in-your-face revelation.
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Post by sirjeremy on Sept 21, 2019 7:32:26 GMT
I would never write Meryl Streep off. She gets nominated for who she is - and not necessarily because of the role. Supporting Actress is also not that competitive this year. Well, nearly everyone seems to be dropping her from their predictions for The Laundromat. Also, if Meryl just got nominated just for the sake of being herself, she would also have nominations for Mary Poppins, Ricki and the Flash, Mamma Mia, Hope Springs, etc. She is nominated a LOT, true, but it almost always has to do with the role. Most of her nominations are for lead roles, and most of them are baity. Her performance in LW isn’t even remotely nominatable. It’s less than what she did in Suffragette, another role everyone and their mother at the start of the year was predicting her for. Streep is Streep, but she is barely an afterthought whereas Florence Pugh is an in-your-face revelation. Yeah, I can't see her getting any nominations this year. I was a little drunk last night when I made the comments about her screentime and role in Little Women as I saw the name Streep and thought it was Smith.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 21, 2019 12:16:48 GMT
Well, nearly everyone seems to be dropping her from their predictions for The Laundromat. Also, if Meryl just got nominated just for the sake of being herself, she would also have nominations for Mary Poppins, Ricki and the Flash, Mamma Mia, Hope Springs, etc. She is nominated a LOT, true, but it almost always has to do with the role. Most of her nominations are for lead roles, and most of them are baity. Her performance in LW isn’t even remotely nominatable. It’s less than what she did in Suffragette, another role everyone and their mother at the start of the year was predicting her for. Streep is Streep, but she is barely an afterthought whereas Florence Pugh is an in-your-face revelation. Yeah, I can't see her getting any nominations this year. I was a little drunk last night when I made the comments about her screentime and role in Little Women as I saw the name Streep and thought it was Smith. Really now?? So maybe she isn't getting a nod this year after all...
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 21, 2019 14:58:37 GMT
I would never write Meryl Streep off. She gets nominated for who she is - and not necessarily because of the role. Supporting Actress is also not that competitive this year. Well, nearly everyone seems to be dropping her from their predictions for The Laundromat. Also, if Meryl just got nominated just for the sake of being herself, she would also have nominations for Mary Poppins, Ricki and the Flash, Mamma Mia, Hope Springs, etc. She is nominated a LOT, true, but it almost always has to do with the role. Most of her nominations are for lead roles, and most of them are baity. Her performance in LW isn’t even remotely nominatable. It’s less than what she did in Suffragette, another role everyone and their mother at the start of the year was predicting her for. Streep is Streep, but she is barely an afterthought whereas Florence Pugh is an in-your-face revelation. Who's everyone? The people here?
No one is claiming she will be nominated for sure, but I would never write Streep off completely as you indicated. She gets nominated for roles that most other actresses would not. And there is always someone who gets in with a left field nomination - and Supporting Actress is a weak field this year.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 21, 2019 21:08:03 GMT
Well, nearly everyone seems to be dropping her from their predictions for The Laundromat. Also, if Meryl just got nominated just for the sake of being herself, she would also have nominations for Mary Poppins, Ricki and the Flash, Mamma Mia, Hope Springs, etc. She is nominated a LOT, true, but it almost always has to do with the role. Most of her nominations are for lead roles, and most of them are baity. Her performance in LW isn’t even remotely nominatable. It’s less than what she did in Suffragette, another role everyone and their mother at the start of the year was predicting her for. Streep is Streep, but she is barely an afterthought whereas Florence Pugh is an in-your-face revelation. Who's everyone? The people here?
No one is claiming she will be nominated for sure, but I would never write Streep off completely as you indicated. She gets nominated for roles that most other actresses would not. And there is always someone who gets in with a left field nomination - and Supporting Actress is a weak field this year.
Yeah, what worries me about Streep is that she made comments about Little Women, and it sounded like she was going to campaign a lot for it. When she missed for Ricki and the Flash, Hope Springs, etc., she didn't campaign for those, but when she wants to be nominated like when she went all out for Florence Foster Jenkins and August: Osage County, she never misses. Aunt March isn't a baity role at all, but I don't know what kind of changes that Gerwig made. So that plus Streep seeming like she's going to campaign this year plus such a weak category worries me because she always makes it when she really wants it.
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Post by bob-coppola on Sept 21, 2019 21:45:16 GMT
The trajectory for the Little Women gals in this category this year is funny. First, we all thought it'd be Laura Dern the BSA winner as the matriarchy. Then, it was Pugh (still is, I guess). And now, we're talking about Streep. Watch out for Eliza Scanlen winning her Oscar for dying
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Sept 21, 2019 23:17:57 GMT
The trajectory for the Little Women gals in this category this year is funny. First, we all thought it'd be Laura Dern the BSA winner as the matriarchy. Then, it was Pugh (still is, I guess). And now, we're talking about Streep. Watch out for Eliza Scanlen winning her Oscar for dying To be fair, although Scanlon is fine, Claire Danes was worthy of a nomination when she played that role in 1994.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 22, 2019 1:41:01 GMT
Well, nearly everyone seems to be dropping her from their predictions for The Laundromat. Also, if Meryl just got nominated just for the sake of being herself, she would also have nominations for Mary Poppins, Ricki and the Flash, Mamma Mia, Hope Springs, etc. She is nominated a LOT, true, but it almost always has to do with the role. Most of her nominations are for lead roles, and most of them are baity. Her performance in LW isn’t even remotely nominatable. It’s less than what she did in Suffragette, another role everyone and their mother at the start of the year was predicting her for. Streep is Streep, but she is barely an afterthought whereas Florence Pugh is an in-your-face revelation. Who's everyone? The people here?
No one is claiming she will be nominated for sure, but I would never write Streep off completely as you indicated. She gets nominated for roles that most other actresses would not. And there is always someone who gets in with a left field nomination - and Supporting Actress is a weak field this year.
This is a good point, and it wouldn't be the first time she gets nominated for a film with mixed reviews.
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Post by stephen on Sept 28, 2019 19:46:04 GMT
Here's a question: could Jessie Buckley get swept up with the support for Zellweger? Buckley's had a killer couple of years, is a possible Globe nominee for Wild Rose and was recently in Chernobyl.
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Post by quetee on Sept 28, 2019 19:59:25 GMT
In an ideal world Cho Yeo Jeong(Parasite)would be a front runner in this category,but I don't think that's going to happen. Laura Dern Jennifer Lopez Annette Bening Zhao Shuzhen Taylor Russell I think Russell might be the dark horse here.The lack of festival play and late release date will hurt Pugh's chances,so I'm ruling her out. I'm hoping Taylor happens.
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Post by hugobolso on Sept 28, 2019 20:36:57 GMT
What about Paquin?
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