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Post by stephen on Jul 28, 2019 16:16:23 GMT
I meant to keep this series going but I got distracted, and in the wake of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's release and the sudden doubt as to whether Margot Robbie (previously thought to be a shoo-in) might even manage to wangle a nomination with the material she was given, I thought we'd talk about Best Supporting Actress.
So who's gonna be the coattail and category fraud that normally populates this wasteland of a category?
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 28, 2019 16:27:24 GMT
Later today I'll make a post about the possible contenders but in a few words I guess Dern is the front-runner and Theron the runner up.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 28, 2019 16:39:54 GMT
Apparently, some critics on Twittah! are trying to make Margaret Qualley a thing from OUATIH over Robbie whose chances look pretty dead now that it's been widely seen, but that may also be wishful thinking.
Robbie may still have a shot for Fair And Balanced, but no point predicting it till we have some idea if the movie will be well recieved. Nicole Kidman in the same film is in the same boat.
Kidman again in The Goldfinch. She looks execptional in some teaser clips, but if the movie is a non-starter, then her chances are probably limited as well.If there's one thing we've learned with Kidman, she needs the Academy to like her film.
Someone from Little Women seems bound to get in. It's hard to screw up an adaptation that's been done a million times already, so expect reviews to be good enough. Meryl Streep is obviously always a huge threat. Laura Dern feels like she's due for an Oscar, so I think she can factor. Florence Pugh is a hot new industry it girl, but don't know if she"ll be positioned as lead or support.
Dern also has the Noah Baumbach movie.
There's more, but these are some potentials just off the top of my dome.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Jul 28, 2019 16:40:58 GMT
Laura Dern: Marriage Story
Annette Bening: The Report
Janelle Monae: Harriet
Margot Robbie: Fair and Balanced
Zhao Shunzhen: The Farewell
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 28, 2019 16:42:47 GMT
Later today I'll make a post about the possible contenders but in a few words I guess Dern is the front-runner and Theron the runner up. Theron is the lead in Fair And Balanced. Kidman and Robbie are supporting.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 28, 2019 17:09:35 GMT
Later today I'll make a post about the possible contenders but in a few words I guess Dern is the front-runner and Theron the runner up. Theron is the lead in Fair And Balanced. Kidman and Robbie are supporting. You sure about that? If that's the case, then I'll have to reconsider. But either way, I bet Dern will win this.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 28, 2019 17:20:40 GMT
This category is the opposite of Best Supporting Actor which on paper at least is jam-packed with much (in theory) greatness.........here it's jam packed with much bullsh*t - on paper at least.
Bening I think is safe and then it's a sorta mess........Dern I'm willing to buy that......Kidman maybe who allegedly matches the character in the book (didn't read it) but who is maddeningly at her most "Oh wtf" in The Goldfinch trailer with the Kidman-isms (whispering again, playing the emotion not the text, looking vaguely weepy).
Somebody from The Farewell I reckon is a good guess.
None of these matches performer to performance - ie it's all performer with nomination match only - ie does Erivo pull in Monae, does Theron pull in Robbie .....why would Fair & Balanced work anyway - look at that director......look at that material of low hanging fruit - that looks like more of a trainwreck than anything else......on paper.
I'm seeing Maggie Smith getting in - dead serious - a better actress than you know, than just about anybody in the world. This is an old persons Oscars and that is leaving The Irishman out even.
The telecast will end by 9:00 and have a 1 hour nap break too.
Bening Dern Thomasin McKenzie Smith Shunzhen
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 28, 2019 17:28:30 GMT
With a little bit more information on Marriage Story, it seems like perhaps I've cursed another person, lol, as Dern wasn't singled out at all by anyone last week, and it sounds more like a two-hander with two strong leading performances, so now I don't know who to predict as the winner. It's possible that maybe Dern still has enough material to get a nomination, or maybe it's like a Margot Robbie in OUATIH situation where it's possible that both could still coattail if their films are both strong, and this category lacks contenders when awards season begins.
1. Margot Robbie, Fair and Balanced - Again like I said it's possible that she coattails for OUATIH, but I don't think the film will end up being that strong by the time the televised shows start, so I think she has more chance here. There's good buzz about her performance, but that certainly could turn out to be wrong.
2. Laura Dern, Marriage Report - I won't take her completely out of my rankings right now, but it seems like if there's an acting win here that the two leads might have the better chance because of the strength of their film, and most importantly the material that they'll both have to work with. It seems Johansson has a 5 minute monologue, Driver breaks into Sondheim at one point, and there's probably lots of "ACTING" between Johansson and Driver. Or it could be more subtle which still wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
3. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit - That teaser was something else, but the buzz remains high about this. Previously I had Johansson in my top 5 for this, but I think she might have a better shot with Marriage Story. It's possible that she could get double nominations, but that usually happens for someone who is going to win in one of the two categories, and it's too early for me to predict that about Johansson. Or sometimes it happens if someone is extremely well loved by their peers (Cate Blanchett, Julianne Moore, Holly Hunter, Emma Thompson), and Johansson doesn't really fit that either. Anyhow McKenzie moves up now for this, and Johansson down.
4. Zhao Shunzhen, The Farewell - The Oscars is usually not very kind to actresses of Asian descent, and I'm also predicting Awkwafina in leading for The Farewell, so it's a very tall order that both will get in. However, it's been warmly received by critics, and it's doing very well in limited release right now at the box office. Plus, A24 is usually good at campaigning; although, last year, they didn't seem to care since they didn't really do anything for Toni Collette and Ethan Hawke, but that maybe because neither Hereditary or First Reformed seemed likely in Best Picture, whereas The Farewell has a better chance than either one of those films. Hopefully, they don't drop the ball two years in a row.
5. Janelle Monae, Harriet - I have no idea about this film at all, and everyone seemed to hate the trailer except me. I admit it was basic, but I don't know that's a bad thing because I think the same complaints were made about Darkest Hour's trailer too. I still have confidence that Focus will get their annual Best Picture nomination with this, and it's possible Monae coattails her way to a nomination.
6. Annette Bening, The Report - It doesn't seem like Amazon has any clue to what they're doing this year, lol, but Bening seems well liked in Hollywood, is playing a real life person that many voters from California are probably familiar with, and Amazon moved the date of The Report into the heart of awards season instead of burying it in September like it seemed like they were going to do. Amazon trying to copy Netflix by only leaving it in theaters for two weeks gives me a lot of pause, but if they make people aware of it being on Amazon, perhaps it won't completely kill its chances because it looks like the kind of film that won't be hurt by being viewed on a smaller screen unlike with Amazon's other awards hopeful The Aeronauts which I think Amazon should give a full theatrical run to since it looks like viewers wouldn't get the same impact of it seeing it on a smaller screen.
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - Most of the buzz between the two female performances from this film has been about her, but again I'm weary about double nominations for her. It's possible, but they're so rare especially nowadays that I'm not going to predict it this far out.
8. Brie Larson, Just Mercy - I think that Warner Brothers can successfully run two campaigns for something else and Joker. I don't know if this will be their other main push, but word seems positive so far. I also don't know much about Larson's performance other than it seems they went back and gave her more time, which is a plus. Also she had Captain Marvel this year, and I think some voters like to nominate recent winners again not just because they might have missed out on nominating them before like with Sam Rockwell, Christian Bale, etc., but also because it validates their choosing the correct person as the winner. So I could see Larson coattailing based on those things depending on how strong Just Mercy turns out to be.
9. Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters - I don't know anything about her role. I fear that it might just be a suffering wife role, but perhaps that's not a bad thing for her since they do love to nominate those especially in this category. Plus, this category seems wide open right now that she could be another possible coattail nomination.
10. Octavia Spencer, Luce - Strongest reviews in this category so far, and she's been nominated 3 times already this decade in this category. I'm still hesitant though because she'd probably be a lone nominee, and usually that doesn't happen much here now. Plus, Neon has Parasite and Clemency to juggle, and I'm not sure how well they'll be able to handle more than one film to campaign especially since Parasite will likely be their main push.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 28, 2019 17:48:24 GMT
Annette Bening – She could definitely get a nod imo. A runner-up behind Dern, maybe. ScarJo - I thought she would be nominated. But after seeing Jojo's trailer, I'm not optimistic. It doesn't seem the movie will be Oscar-baity. Laura Dern – She has the best chance imo. For Baumbach's project, I mean. A subject the academy likes and a fine actress long overdue. Nicole Kidman – The Goldfinch didn't look like it will get Oscar love. Maybe for the Ailes project? Jennifer Hudson – For Cats? An Oscar nod for getting dressed like a cat? Margot Robbie – According to the ones who've seen OUATIH, she's got almost nothing to do in the film. So, no. For the Ailes project, I wouldn't know. I just learned she's supporting in it!! Emma Watson – If LW gets to be good and if it's well received (I believe it will), then a nod is really possible. Maggie Smith – 3 Emmys and a GG for the exact same role. The academy usually honors such actors/roles. She could def make the surprise. Janelle Monae – I know absolutely nothing about her role. Or even her. But the film will do fine in the Oscars and her part is reportedly juicy. Florence Pugh - This edition of Little Women will get some Oscar love, it appears. She has the chance to get a nod. Meryl Streep - Looks like every year they pick one of her movies to nominate her. The Laundromat is their 2019 pick. Mathematically, if she gets a nod every year, some day she'll win!! Zhao Shunzhen - The film seems is going to be a hit. She does stand a chance.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jul 30, 2019 4:32:00 GMT
Annette Bening, The Report Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory Laura Dern, Marriage Story Zhao Shuzen, The Farewell Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 30, 2019 10:08:18 GMT
Annette Bening, The Report Laura Dern, Little Women/Marriage Story Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood/Fair and Balanced Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
HM: Octavia Spencer, Luce Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit Janelle Monae, Harriet
Meryl Streep if she goes supporting for The Laundromat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2019 12:40:56 GMT
No mention yet of Kristen Stewart for Seberg? She's bound to be nominated eventually, and this seems like the perfect role to take her across the finish line.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Jul 30, 2019 13:14:25 GMT
No mention yet of Kristen Stewart for Seberg? She's bound to be nominated eventually, and this seems like the perfect role to take her across the finish line. I think this may be a lead role rather than supporting ,but either way,she should have at least one nomination by now.She was incredible in Personal Shopper and Clouds of Sils Maria.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 30, 2019 13:22:19 GMT
@tyler - as an fyi, I wrote about her (half successful - at times great but flawed imo) Personal Shopper performance - I think you'd be intrigued by that thread btw.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 30, 2019 13:50:57 GMT
No mention yet of Kristen Stewart for Seberg? She's bound to be nominated eventually, and this seems like the perfect role to take her across the finish line. Is she bound to be nominated though? I know critics have made her a cause celebre of sorts since they made her a punching bag in mainstream studio films like Twilight, and she picked up a Ceasar in France, but there's really little to indicate she's especially respected by her peers within Hollywood. Her lone SAG nomination came as part of the ensemble cast for Into The Wild in 2007. She is not regarded as an Actors actor. She's a critics thing because she makes all the arthouse films they like, but they don't nominate the Oscars. I don't think Stewart has anywhere enough juice with her peers to be a certain Oscar nominee one day. Scarlett Johansson has been nominated for and won a lot of major awards, but it's also telling she's never recieved an individual SAG nomination either,(And also never been Oscar nominated). Industry awards have been all over her (Globes etc), but she's not particularly revered among her peers in film. Not to say it can't happen for either of them at some point (ScarJo seems the most likely to get an Oscar nod one day for me,), but neither strike me as inevitable nominees one day.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2019 14:06:24 GMT
pupdurcs - Yes, I think so. She, along with Johansson (whom you mentioned) and Channing Tatum are too beloved by general audiences and critics to go unrecognized.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jul 30, 2019 14:17:31 GMT
pupdurcs - Yes, I think so. She, along with Johansson (whom you mentioned) and Channing Tatum are too beloved by general audiences and critics to go unrecognized. I can't agree with this. There have been far bigger and more beloved fish who never got that "inevitable" Oscar nomination-- Jim Carrey for example. Ewan McGregor, Jamie Lee Curtis, Donald Sutherland, Jeff Goldblum, Meg Ryan, John Cusack, John Goodman, Kevin Bacon....the list goes on. I don't think Stewart (or especially Channing Tatum) have much more going for them than these overlooked actors. Like I said, it can happen, but I've seen others that felt way more inevitable that never happened. If there is an actress that feels inevitable after a couple of outright snubs and clear peer regard, it's probably Emily Blunt.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 30, 2019 16:37:45 GMT
No mention yet of Kristen Stewart for Seberg? She's bound to be nominated eventually, and this seems like the perfect role to take her across the finish line. I think this may be a lead role rather than supporting ,but either way,she should have at least one nomination by now.She was incredible in Personal Shopper and Clouds of Sils Maria. Yes, I think it's more of a leading role; although, maybe it's possible it's one of those that could be borderline supporting. The reason I didn't predict her though is that it's Amazon, and I have no idea what they're doing this season. First, it seemed like they might try to push The Report, then they pushed that to September and said that they were going to copy Netflix's theatrical release model with it. Then, it seemed like The Aeronauts was going to be their big push. They were going to give it a release date first at IMAX theaters on October 25, and then wide one week later. I kept hearing good buzz about it, and how it was going to go to the fall festivals. Then, TIFF releases its first slate of movies, and it's not there, and next Venice announces its lineup, and it's not there either. Then, Amazon changes their plan again by releasing The Report on November 15, and to release The Aeronauts on December 6 now, but still with the plan to follow Netflix's model with both films by only keeping them in theaters for two weeks. On top of that they're taking The Report to TIFF and Radioactive which has another possible Best Actress candidate with Rosamund Pike to there as well, but they're taking Seberg to Venice, just not in competition, so for me I just don't think Amazon knows what it wants to push this season. So I don't have much faith them to get it together this year even if they do settle on something because their plans don't seem logical to me so far. Maybe The Report could find an audience on Amazon's streaming service, besides the material being so dry which would have been a problem in theaters too, because it seems pretty small scale, but The Aeronauts seems like the kind of film that audiences really need to fall in love with in a theater first to really experience it. However, now they're going to have the same problems that Netflix has by trying to find independent theaters willing to play it since they only plan on keeping it there for two weeks. Netflix will also be fighting for those same theaters, and frankly I trust them more at this point because they have more experience under their belt with this model. I also think that their films will be more appealing for theaters to want to show. Nothing against The Report or The Aeronauts, but one is a very dry film about the CIA's methods of interrogation after 9/11, and the other is about two people flying around the world in a balloon whereas Netflix has The Irishman, one of the most anticipated films of the year, along with new films from Meryl Streep, Eddie Murphy, Anthony Hopkins, etc. Plus, based on what little information I could find on how many streamers Netflix has vs. Amazon, apparently Amazon has about 26 million streamers to Netflix's 54 million domestic subscribers, so again Netflix has the advantage there in theory. Both services will have the problem of getting people to watch their award content, but at least Netflix has a much bigger pool of subscribers.
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Post by stephen on Jul 30, 2019 17:04:46 GMT
No mention yet of Kristen Stewart for Seberg? She's bound to be nominated eventually, and this seems like the perfect role to take her across the finish line. Is she bound to be nominated though? I know critics have made her a cause celebre of sorts since they made her a punching bag in mainstream studio films like Twilight, and she picked up a Ceasar in France, but there's really little to indicate she's especially respected by her peers within Hollywood. Her lone SAG nomination came as part of the ensemble cast for Into The Wild in 2007. She is not regarded as an Actors actor. She's a critics thing because she makes all the arthouse films they like, but they don't nominate the Oscars. I don't think Stewart has anywhere enough juice with her peers to be a certain Oscar nominee one day. Scarlett Johansson has been nominated for and won a lot of major awards, but it's also telling she's never recieved an individual SAG nomination either,(And also never been Oscar nominated). Industry awards have been all over her (Globes etc), but she's not particularly revered among her peers in film. Not to say it can't happen for either of them at some point (ScarJo seems the most likely to get an Oscar nod one day for me,), but neither strike me as inevitable nominees one day. Yeah, I don't know if I can agree that Stewart is "bound to be nominated" either. She's done very well for herself in regaining arthouse cred after the Twilight franchise, but the movies she makes are often more esoteric than what Oscar goes for. She may strike gold at some point by hitting that critics' favorite that translates to mainstream success at the industry prizes, but I don't think it's a given because, as you say, people have been working in this business for decades without an Oscar nomination despite turning in consistent quality work with acclaimed filmmakers.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 30, 2019 23:26:00 GMT
I didn't see this earlier. I still don't think that Stewart is getting close to an Oscar nomination this year, but Oscars noms aren't the only acting honors out there.
Unfortunately I also have to add more to my discussion about my confusion with Amazon this year.
This is the kind of movie that needs to be seen in IMAX. At this point, I wonder if Amazon is going to distribute films anymore, or if there's going to be some kind of major shake-up there because they started out the year not caring about how much they were spending with their acquisitions at Sundance, and then spending so much to promote Late Night. Now it looks like they're cutting back because they lost all that money earlier in the year which seems weird to me because Amazon has such deep pockets. Plus, a relatively new studio like them is going to have some bumps in the road, but the important thing, I would think, is just getting original content for Amazon Prime to be able to compete with the other streaming services. Maybe they'll try to copy Netflix more by doing some kind of model with Amazon Prime where those that just want the delivery service pay the regular price now, and those that want other stuff like the media content can add onto it.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 31, 2019 4:58:52 GMT
Dern Johansson McKenzie Robbie Streep
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 31, 2019 6:33:49 GMT
No clue this far out obviously, but I want to say Dern and Benning look good and I'm going to double down on Zhao Shuzen because it's about goddamn time to get some Asian ladies nominated.
As for Maggie Smith, wouldn't that be fabulous? I don't know if this is happening and Downton Abbey has kind of been the elephant in the room that no one's ready to talk about yet, but if she got in for this it'd make me so giddy. On one hand, voters might just think she's been awarded enough for this role and go with something fresh but on the other hand, everyone loves Maggie Smith and she already has six nominations (and two wins!) to her name. Is it so unlikely that she nabs her seventh for a role that everybody already loves? I'm going to tentatively put her in.
Spencer also seems good for Luce. NEON is going to have a lot more on their plate than I was initially expecting between this film, Clemency, and two strong contenders for foreign language film, but it's never been a good idea to bet against Spencer and she's going to have the reviews and what looks to be her meatiest role to date fully behind her with this project.
So I guess here's my lineup: Annette Bening Laura Dern Zhao Shuzen Maggie Smith Octavia Spencer
As for some of the others that have been mentioned, allow me to rain on everyone's parade and play devil's advocate.
Johansson and McKenzie...not seeing it at all. I think Jojo Rabbit is either going to be too whimsical/quirky or rub too many people the wrong way to score any acting nods. Looks more like a film that'll play well with writers if anything, a la Wes Anderson (who unless I'm mistaken has yet to score a single nomination for his actors). Either way, an acting nod for Waititi seems doubly unlikely.
Monae...I could see this, but going by the trailer it looks like it's going to be the same performance we've seen from Monae in every film she's done. The question is whether the role be substantial enough to allow her to stand out. If it does, I could totally see her get nominated, but at this point that seems like a big if to me. I think Harriet will do well enough to maybe score a BP nod and almost definitely Actress, but after that trailer dropped it did feel like we had been over-hyping its chances. I mean, Darkest Hour got a BP nod to go along with Oldman's performance but Kristen Scott Thomas went totally unrecognized the whole season for what was on paper a meaty role. Monae is no sure thing, not even a likely thing at this point.
Robbie...could happen for Fair and Balanced if it's not a total trainwreck (or even just something that gets totally overlooked...remember The Front Runner last year? Neither do I). She's not getting in for OUATIH, that's pretty clear, and I don't see relative unknown/newcomer Qualley getting in either. Or at least it's going to be an uphill battle. If the film does land with voters, I think most of the focus is going to be on Tarantino's directing and writing and Pitt.
Kidman...you'd think it would help that she's vying for two different performances but I'm wondering if that doesn't just cancel them both out. Goldfinch is looking like it's going to land with a thud and if it does Kidman's performance is going to have to be REALLY good to be its sole nomination. On the flipside, Robbie is going to only be campaigning for Fair and Balanced and I don't see that film scoring a double nomination in the same category so that would mean Kidman is out and Robbie is in. Robbie's career has been on upswing these last couple years while Kidman missed out twice last year for Destroyer and Boy Erased. I don't know if Goldfinch or Fair and Balanced will be her comeback or it's going to be 2018 all over again. My gut says the latter.
Brie Larson...I don't know. I'm not ready to predict her until we see more of Just Mercy, which could be a total non-starter. Cretton hasn't shown himself to be awards-friendly yet and remember when people were predicting Woody Harrelson in 2017 for another Cretton biopic? How do we know this isn't going to be just another Marshall or Suffragette? It's way too early to tell. Sometimes these baity prestige biopics (especially of the courtroom variety) get through but they're hardly a sure thing, and Cretton has never been a sure thing. Larson isn't coming anywhere near my predictions until I see a trailer.
Pugh...now here's one that seems totally possible, and I only left her out of my lineup as wishful thinking for Zhao Shuzen, but...I'm preparing myself for the very real possibility that Little Women is going to be big, and in such a dialogue-heavy big ensemble piece a single acting nomination for Ronan feels unlikely. The question is who gets that 2nd nomination? Pugh or Streep? Maybe even both? This does seem like the kind of movie that could score a double nom a la The Favourite, especially in a weak field and if (like The Favourite) Little Women makes a huge splash. Right now until I know more about Streep's character, I'm going to have Pugh as my tentative alternate to Shuzen for the timebeing.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 31, 2019 8:30:04 GMT
No clue this far out obviously, but I want to say Dern and Benning look good and I'm going to double down on Zhao Shuzen because it's about goddamn time to get some Asian ladies nominated. As for Maggie Smith, wouldn't that be fabulous? I don't know if this is happening and Downton Abbey has kind of been the elephant in the room that no one's ready to talk about yet, but if she got in for this it'd make me so giddy. On one hand, voters might just think she's been awarded enough for this role and go with something fresh but on the other hand, everyone loves Maggie Smith and she already has six nominations (and two wins!) to her name. Is it so unlikely that she nabs her seventh for a role that everybody already loves? I'm going to tentatively put her in. Spencer also seems good for Luce. NEON is going to have a lot more on their plate than I was initially expecting between this film, Clemency, and two strong contenders for foreign language film, but it's never been a good idea to bet against Spencer and she's going to have the reviews and what looks to be her meatiest role to date fully behind her with this project. So I guess here's my lineup: Annette Bening Laura Dern Zhao Shuzen Maggie Smith Octavia SpencerAs for some of the others that have been mentioned, allow me to rain on everyone's parade and play devil's advocate. Johansson and McKenzie...not seeing it at all. I think Jojo Rabbit is either going to be too whimsical/quirky or rub too many people the wrong way to score any acting nods. Looks more like a film that'll play well with writers if anything, a la Wes Anderson (who unless I'm mistaken has yet to score a single nomination for his actors). Either way, an acting nod for Waititi seems doubly unlikely. Monae...I could see this, but going by the trailer it looks like it's going to be the same performance we've seen from Monae in every film she's done. The question is whether the role be substantial enough to allow her to stand out. If it does, I could totally see her get nominated, but at this point that seems like a big if to me. I think Harriet will do well enough to maybe score a BP nod and almost definitely Actress, but after that trailer dropped it did feel like we had been over-hyping its chances. I mean, Darkest Hour got a BP nod to go along with Oldman's performance but Kristen Scott Thomas went totally unrecognized the whole season for what was on paper a meaty role. Monae is no sure thing, not even a likely thing at this point. Robbie...could happen for Fair and Balanced if it's not a total trainwreck (or even just something that gets totally overlooked...remember The Front Runner last year? Neither do I). She's not getting in for OUATIH, that's pretty clear, and I don't see relative unknown/newcomer Qualley getting in either. Or at least it's going to be an uphill battle. If the film does land with voters, I think most of the focus is going to be on Tarantino's directing and writing and Pitt. Kidman...you'd think it would help that she's vying for two different performances but I'm wondering if that doesn't just cancel them both out. Goldfinch is looking like it's going to land with a thud and if it does Kidman's performance is going to have to be REALLY good to be its sole nomination. On the flipside, Robbie is going to only be campaigning for Fair and Balanced and I don't see that film scoring a double nomination in the same category so that would mean Kidman is out and Robbie is in. Robbie's career has been on upswing these last couple years while Kidman missed out twice last year for Destroyer and Boy Erased. I don't know if Goldfinch or Fair and Balanced will be her comeback or it's going to be 2018 all over again. My gut says the latter. Brie Larson...I don't know. I'm not ready to predict her until we see more of Just Mercy, which could be a total non-starter. Cretton hasn't shown himself to be awards-friendly yet and remember when people were predicting Woody Harrelson in 2017 for another Cretton biopic? How do we know this isn't going to be just another Marshall or Suffragette? It's way too early to tell. Sometimes these baity prestige biopics (especially of the courtroom variety) get through but they're hardly a sure thing, and Cretton has never been a sure thing. Larson isn't coming anywhere near my predictions until I see a trailer. Pugh...now here's one that seems totally possible, and I only left her out of my lineup as wishful thinking for Zhao Shuzen, but...I'm preparing myself for the very real possibility that Little Women is going to be big, and in such a dialogue-heavy big ensemble piece a single acting nomination for Ronan feels unlikely. The question is who gets that 2nd nomination? Pugh or Streep? Maybe even both? This does seem like the kind of movie that could score a double nom a la The Favourite, especially in a weak field and if (like The Favourite) Little Women makes a huge splash. Right now until I know more about Streep's character, I'm going to have Pugh as my tentative alternate to Shuzen for the timebeing. What's the logic behind not even having Driver or Johansson in their respective Top 10's but you're confidently predicting Dern ?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 31, 2019 16:53:07 GMT
What's the logic behind not even having Driver or Johansson in their respective Top 10's but you're confidently predicting Dern ? More instinct that logic I guess. Driver also has The Report and I don't see Marriage Story as being something that earns a lot of acting nods, and I've never felt confident about predicting Johansson for anything. I could see some of the things she's been saying about whitewashing come back to bite her, especially if Jojo Rabbit ends up rubbing people the wrong way. Could be totally wrong. I don't know what people are saying about it. Dern just seems the likeliest of the bunch for Marriage Story. She's overdue, has a long career behind her spanning back to the 80s, and the Academy likes to nominate her.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2019 2:08:43 GMT
Laura Dern
Annette Bening
Thomasin Mckenzie
Janelle Monae
Octavia Spencer
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