Noah Baumbach, Untitled Greta Gerwig, Little Women Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life James Mangold, Ford v. Ferrari Sam Mendes, 1917 Jordan Peele, Us Martin Scorsese, The Irishman Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood Taika Waititi, Jo Jo Rabbit
1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Unless some kind of scandal happens, or if all the expected Oscar bait is received very well including for its direction, I don't really see Tarantino missing.
2. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman - Pretty much the same as Tarantino, but I'm not as confident just because it could possibly be pushed back again (doubtful but you never know), or it may not live up to expectations (also seems doubtful but you never know).
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 - If Mendes is able to get this completed in time, and it's well received critically, I don't think he'd miss because of the achievement of being a war film that looks like it's one complete shot, and the short amount of time that he took to make it.
4. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit - Seems like Fox Searchlight's big push, and early word was very good until last week, but I don't know if it's a rival studio behind it, or if it's a film that is just going to be incredibly divisive.
5. Noah Baumbach, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project - The buzz through this has been through the roof lately, but who knows if it's for real. If it is, I think Baumbach should make it because I think Netflix can handle two big campaigns. If it's not, then at best he'll get an Original Screenplay nomination and maybe Dern nominated.
6. Tom Harper, The Aeronauts - It seems like it should do well in many technical categories, and feels like the kind of epic spectacle that could get other directors' attention. Still not sure how popular a film about hot air ballooning is going to be though with the general public, so poor box office could hurt it especially since Amazon tends to be very bad about cutting trailers.
7. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite - I've read that its screenplay is a better bet than its directing, but with the voters of this category becoming more selective and highbrow plus winning the Palme d'or at Cannes, I think that Bong has a good chance here too.
8. Fernando Meirelles, The Pope - For me this is tied to how close Jonathan Pryce comes to winning Best Actor. If he actually wins like Redmayne, Oldman, and Malek did, then film will also be a Best Picture nominee, and possibly bring in Meirelles as well. I know Marsh and Wright missed, but I think Marsh wasn't too far away from the fifth spot that year. Plus Singer probably would have made it in considering how many awards Bohemian Rhapsody won if it weren't for all the controversy. Plus unlike those other directors, Meirelles has been nominated before in this category.
9. Lulu Wang, The Farewell - I think it's more likely they'll reward Wang for a stellar per theater average and high Metacritic score with a nomination for The Farewell's screenplay, but she might have a small chance for a nomination in this category too.
10. Todd Haynes, Dark Waters - Ignoring Haynes for Far From Heaven and Carol for something that at least on paper seems very safe and Oscar baity feels like something the Oscars would do.
11. Clint Eastwood, The Ballad of Richard Jewell - If it actually does well critically, I have to think that Eastwood will be a threat, but there's a lot of question marks.
12. Robert Eggers, The Lighthouse - Has received a lot of positive attention so far, but I'm not sure if the Director's branch will go that outside the box.
Far too early to say my projected nominees definitively, though I do wanna say that I have a distinct feeling that Robert Eggers could be a dark horse player. Yes, it's a horror film (of sorts), but it's also an extremely showy, artistically flashy bit of filmmaking that will definitely play to the far-more-daring directors' branch, much in the way Pawlikowski did with Cold War. All A24 needs to do is get off its ass and push it hard, and I think Eggers (who got rapturous notices out of Cannes) will be a critical contender who gets that passion vote.
If Erivo is really the leading contender for best actress and not just hype the woman who directed the performance you would think would be in the running.
Just sayin' Kasi Lemmons has a shot here - not saying 3 females get into but maybe Gerwig and Heller shouldn't be so locked in even granting Wang a slot.......
I think Erivo is a great bet to win Best Actress as long as the film does well enough with critics, and I think that it should be a shoo in for Best Picture if that happens especially since this should be Focus's main push. I'm unsure about Director though as that branch has gotten more highbrow lately, and only 5 women have been nominated for Best Director.
It's definitely possible, but I figured that I had to cut off my list eventually. I would actually put her above Gerwig and Heller though. I know many would disagree about putting Lemmons over Gerwig because Gerwig is a former Best Director nominee, and Little Women seems like it should be pretty well received. However, from the sounds of it, it seems like Gerwig has a much better chance for Screenplay, imo. With Heller and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, I think it could be like Can You Ever Forgive Me? in that it won't be its studio's main push, and that the actors (Hanks and Rhys) might be recognized by many awards bodies, but they pass over Heller again.
I think Harriet will be bigger in scope than ABDitN and that the directors will appreciate that, and that it's not another literary adaptation, but who knows what the real product will be like.
Since we don't have Best Picture predicting thread, and this tweet could be about Best Director, not totally sure, I thought I'd put it in here.
Seems about right; although, I have a few hesitations.
I don't know about Just Mercy, but it could be WB's #1. Also depending on how it plays, Oscar could respond since it seems like it could be like Green Book in that it's "important" but not too preachy or political.
Next would be Dark Waters formerly Dry Run. The material seems baity yet, it reminds me of A Civil Action. I know that was directed by Steven Zaillian whose not exactly an Oscar favorite for his direction, but it's not like Haynes is either. I know it's just like the Oscars to nominate Haynes for something so conventional, but at the same time, I feel like this story has been done to death, not that it's not important because obviously it keeps happening, but I could see it being lost in the shuffle amongst the other Oscar bait films.
Finally, I'm also unsure about Ford v. Ferrari. I think it will do well critically, but it could be like Rush. I mean I know this has much bigger stars, but not sure about Fox-Disney and how their campaigning is going to go.
Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Greta Gerwig: Little Women Marielle Heller: A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood Martin Scorsese: The Irishman ------------------------------------------------------------ Noah Baumbach: Marriage STory Sam Mendes: 1917 Jay Roach: Ailes project Kasi Lemmons: Harriet Robert Eggers: The Lighthouse
I've removed Peele, Malick and Waititi from my list. I consider it certain that the first four I've listed will be in the final 5.