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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 14, 2019 19:04:31 GMT
My first predictions for this category: Robert De Niro - The IrishmanOf my predicted nominees, I'm probably most iffy about De Niro. Starting to get the feeling he might not get much traction. I don't have a very good feeling about those de-aging special effects and I think they will work against him, especially in a subdued performance where s ubtle acting work can be (incorrectly) accredited to the CGI. Heck, he may even do great work that gets dissipated by the CGI. How on earth can that happen????
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Aug 14, 2019 19:15:48 GMT
How on earth can that happen???? Lots of movies use CGI to add tears, for instance. With so much attention on the CGI on actors' faces for The Irishman, people can make similar assumptions here. I'm not saying that will happen, I'm saying it can.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 14, 2019 20:47:58 GMT
How on earth can that happen???? Lots of movies use CGI to add tears, for instance. With so much attention on the CGI on actors' faces for The Irishman, people can make similar assumptions here. I'm not saying that will happen, I'm saying it can. OK... Not very likely but...
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Post by stephen on Aug 14, 2019 21:52:21 GMT
Lots of movies use CGI to add tears, for instance. With so much attention on the CGI on actors' faces for The Irishman, people can make similar assumptions here. I'm not saying that will happen, I'm saying it can. OK... Not very likely but... I mean, it's a reasonable thing to discuss, as much of the film's narrative is resting on the CGI making the actors look half their age and younger. It's reasonable to think that there might be those who think that such manipulation of a performance is something of a cheat, and the question of how much of the work on-screen can be attributable to De Niro/Pacino/Pesci or to the CGI might be asked a lot. It was a criticism that was lobbed at Pitt in 2008, and while he did get nominated, it was off the back of a weak year and being part of the nomination juggernaut of that season. Plus, and this is key, neither De Niro nor Pacino have been Academy favorites for a long time. Pacino hasn't been nominated since 1992, and De Niro only has had the one nomination since his Academy glory days ended in the early-'90s, and that can be chalked up more to Weinstein's vigorous campaign for Silver Linings Playbook than anything else. Is there actually an urgent desire to see either of them back in the game now, or is that just wishful thinking? The Irishman has a lot going for it in terms of pedigree, but there are also a lot of pitfalls in its path that I think a lot of people are overlooking.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 14, 2019 22:03:56 GMT
I mean, it's a reasonable thing to discuss, as much of the film's narrative is resting on the CGI making the actors look half their age and younger. It's reasonable to think that there might be those who think that such manipulation of a performance is something of a cheat, and the question of how much of the work on-screen can be attributable to De Niro/Pacino/Pesci or to the CGI might be asked a lot. It was a criticism that was lobbed at Pitt in 2008, and while he did get nominated, it was off the back of a weak year and being part of the nomination juggernaut of that season. I think it's reasonable to think about and discuss but possibly overblown too - if you look around the internet you'll be shocked (or at least I was) by how many people are predicting The Irishman as a BP candidate without any acting nods. That to me is ridiculous to be honest I mean nothing is impossible but I would actually say that particular scenario is stretching it - The Irishman gets a BP nod and no De Niro, Pesci, or Pacino gets in? None of them? I mean, I could see it affecting 2 of the 3 but not all 3 AND a BP nod. I'mmina say no way and if one can get in then at least you have to think the voting block of the Academy will be keeping an open mind about the CGI and how much it did too. I also think the trailer is deceptive - the best or at least most emotional acting De Niro will do in this film you would think will be at the end and so far, we've seen nothing and that will be no de-aging at all - closer to his current age with make-up.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Aug 14, 2019 22:31:59 GMT
I think it's reasonable to think about and discuss but possibly overblown too - if you look around the internet you'll be shocked (or at least I was) by how many people are predicting The Irishman as a BP candidate without any acting nods. That to me is ridiculous to be honest I mean nothing is impossible but I would actually say that particular scenario is stretching it - The Irishman gets a BP nod and no De Niro, Pesci, or Pacino gets in? None of them? I mean, I could see it affecting 2 of the 3 but not all 3 AND a BP nod. I'mmina say no way and if one can get in then at least you have to think the voting block of the Academy will be keeping an open mind about the CGI and how much it did too. I also think the trailer is deceptive - the best or at least most emotional acting De Niro will do in this film you would think will be at the end and so far, we've seen nothing and that will be no de-aging at all - closer to his current age with make-up. I, for one, think Pacino is more likely to be nominated than De Niro. His performance seems "bigger" (which also means there is less chance of the CGI affecting his performance) and the Supporting category doesn't appear to be as packed. Still not sure why a lot of people are predicting Pesci, but I guess someone who's read the script/book will be the wiser as far as that goes.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 15, 2019 10:21:15 GMT
I, for one, think Pacino is more likely to be nominated than De Niro. His performance seems "bigger" (which also means there is less chance of the CGI affecting his performance) and the Supporting category doesn't appear to be as packed. Still not sure why a lot of people are predicting Pesci, but I guess someone who's read the script/book will be the wiser as far as that goes. It's possible I go back and forth on that - Hoffa is a great role and he's helped by it not being a gangster per se - the only role like that really here of the big ones, he totally sticks out on paper. But I think Supporting is insanely hard vs. Actor .........unless I'm misreading it - assuming Pitt is locked in - the remaining 4 spots are a potential bloodbath. Conceivably on paper you're looking at 5-6 names there with Oscars or nods already - Foxx, Bale (if he's not lead), Dafoe, Hanks, Hopkins, Oldman and maybe even Alan Alda. To me De Niro could be swept into his category far easier than Pacino or Pesci even. I think people are really underselling the Scorsese/De Niro together aspect and giving Scorsese almost too much credit alone - sight unseen of course. If the move fails, it'll be the CGI's fault (not anything to do with what Scorsese controlled), if the movie works it's because he effectively managed the CGI like a genius more than the performers and their acting did and besides they've all sucked for 20 years anyway (utter bullsh it btw on both of those points). But we'll have a better idea soon enough .......6 weeks to go
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2019 13:22:10 GMT
Antonio Banderas Leonardo DiCaprio Tom Hanks Michael B. Jordan Ian McKellen
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 15, 2019 13:43:44 GMT
I think it's reasonable to think about and discuss but possibly overblown too - if you look around the internet you'll be shocked (or at least I was) by how many people are predicting The Irishman as a BP candidate without any acting nods. That to me is ridiculous to be honest I mean nothing is impossible but I would actually say that particular scenario is stretching it - The Irishman gets a BP nod and no De Niro, Pesci, or Pacino gets in? None of them? I mean, I could see it affecting 2 of the 3 but not all 3 AND a BP nod. I'mmina say no way and if one can get in then at least you have to think the voting block of the Academy will be keeping an open mind about the CGI and how much it did too. I also think the trailer is deceptive - the best or at least most emotional acting De Niro will do in this film you would think will be at the end and so far, we've seen nothing and that will be no de-aging at all - closer to his current age with make-up. I, for one, think Pacino is more likely to be nominated than De Niro. His performance seems "bigger" (which also means there is less chance of the CGI affecting his performance) and the Supporting category doesn't appear to be as packed. Still not sure why a lot of people are predicting Pesci, but I guess someone who's read the script/book will be the wiser as far as that goes. The supporting category will be fully packed. Hanks, Pitt, Bale, Pesci, Pacino, Hopkins, Lithgow, Alda, Oldman, Foxx, Waititi... All these guys could be in there. Pesci's part is supposedly very low key and humble, contrary to his usual Scorsese directed performances. Which is a good thing, if you ask me and it could make hs perf more likeable to the Academy members.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 15, 2019 13:46:31 GMT
I also think the trailer is deceptive - the best or at least most emotional acting De Niro will do in this film you would think will be at the end and so far, we've seen nothing and that will be no de-aging at all - closer to his current age with make-up. That's what people who've read the book or/and the script say: His best moments acting-wise will be in Sheeran's later years. But the truth is, most people won't know these scenes won't have any cgi de-aging.
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Post by mattfincher on Aug 15, 2019 15:42:29 GMT
Talk of three acting nominations for The Irishman is far more insane to me than none of them getting nominated. De Niro giving a subdued performance + CGI in a crowded field does not give me any confidence whatsoever in him. The Pesci talk is probably a visceral response to seeing him on screen again that I think will wear off by season's end. I think Pacino will be the only one to end up getting traction. Also, Marriage Story will be Netflix's #1. You can take that to the bank. Plus, Supporting Actor is not weak. I have no idea how/why anyone is making that argument. It's not as packed as this category, but we're usually struggling to come up with contenders for that field this far out and that's not the case this year. Pitt, Hanks, Bale, Foxx, Dafoe, Waititi are all very viably strong contenders without even factoring in Pesci/Pacino and other potential festival wildcards (ie. Alda or Liotta from Marriage Story, Hopkins from The Two Popes, someone from The Laundromat). There's also someone like John Lithgow playing Roger Ailes. It's the most crowded this category has appeared in quite a few years this far out.
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 15, 2019 16:13:49 GMT
Talk of three acting nominations for The Irishman is far more insane to me than none of them getting nominated. De Niro giving a subdued performance + CGI in a crowded field does not give me any confidence whatsoever in him. The Pesci talk is probably a visceral response to seeing him on screen again that I think will wear off by season's end. I think Pacino will be the only one to end up getting traction. Also, Marriage Story will be Netflix's #1. You can take that to the bank. Plus, Supporting Actor is not weak. I have no idea how/why anyone is making that argument. It's not as packed as this category, but we're usually struggling to come up with contenders for that field this far out and that's not the case this year. Pitt, Hanks, Bale, Foxx, Dafoe, Waititi are all very viably strong contenders without even factoring in Pesci/Pacino and other potential festival wildcards (ie. Alda or Liotta from Marriage Story, Hopkins from The Two Popes, someone from The Laundromat). There's also someone like John Lithgow playing Roger Ailes. It's the most crowded this category has appeared in quite a few years this far out. Well that wasn't exactly the point of the earlier posts though right - it was that it gets a BP nod with none of them getting in. It wasn't just them getting nominated (?) Marriage Story a downbeat film almost by definition with a limited niche director and an iffy leading man as a draw (And I am a big fan) is going to be their #1 over the Academy award winning director, 4 Academy award winning stars and the Academy award winning screenwriter with built in appeal..........come on, it's just not, not saying it can't do well with nods of course it can .................but it isn't their priority over that pedigree film with a $175 million dollar price tag.......... If I took that to the bank I'm thinking they may say insufficient funds and call the cops tbh.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Aug 15, 2019 16:41:05 GMT
Also, Marriage Story will be Netflix's #1. You can take that to the bank. Yeah, we'll see about that. Yeah, nobody called it weak. I said literally the same thing that you just did, which is that it's not as packed as the Lead Actor category.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 15, 2019 16:49:14 GMT
Netflix's #1 Oscar push will be the Irishman. And they want BP, nothing less.
Having paid almost 180 mil, everybody would.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Aug 28, 2019 0:52:03 GMT
Antonio Banderas Leonardo DiCaprio Adam Driver Michael B. Jordan Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Driver is winning this.
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Post by SeanJoyce on Aug 28, 2019 4:56:52 GMT
I can't believe the number of people who feel that De Niro has a chance for The Irishman...not that I'm necessarily disagreeing with them, I just never pegged this as the type of role to get him back on the ballot. How pissed would pacinoyes be if De Niro tied Pacino's nomination count and won his third Oscar?
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Post by pacinoyes on Aug 28, 2019 7:50:01 GMT
I can't believe the number of people who feel that De Niro has a chance for The Irishman...not that I'm necessarily disagreeing with them, I just never pegged this as the type of role to get him back on the ballot. How pissed would pacinoyes be if De Niro tied Pacino's nomination count and won his third Oscar? He would not be pissed at all - not one bit - because he loves Robert DeNiro. In fact he loves him even more than he loves Jack Nicholson or DDL and he wasn't bothered by their winning 3 either ........ Besides there's this scene
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Aug 28, 2019 17:33:54 GMT
I can't believe the number of people who feel that De Niro has a chance for The Irishman...not that I'm necessarily disagreeing with them, I just never pegged this as the type of role to get him back on the ballot. How pissed would pacinoyes be if De Niro tied Pacino's nomination count and won his third Oscar? No chance that De Niro wins without Pacino being nominated alongside him for Supporting.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 28, 2019 19:42:27 GMT
I posted earlier that De Niro has very strong chances in getting nominated as he's carrying the whole movie and the Irishman will be strongly promoted by Netflix.
For no apparent reason, my post was deleted (some people decide that many of my posts should be). I got no doubt they will delete this one, too, although it's on topic.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 1, 2019 12:23:55 GMT
Is this the earliest we've had this many Best Actor locks ever - assuming they really are "locks" as of August 31st:
DiCaprio Driver Phoenix
Not saying the category isn't filled already either (Banderas, Bale etc) but I can't remember having 3 locks before September?
Almost every other contender has now been seen and assessed a bit already now except De Niro, Chalamet and McKellen and maybe one or two more - Hopkins/Pryce has now played Telluride.........Motherless Brooklyn also etc.
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Post by stephen on Sept 1, 2019 13:11:28 GMT
No one's a lock in September.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 1, 2019 13:26:25 GMT
Yet, I really believe Leo and Driver will get their nods.
I wouldn't know about Phoenix. Judging by the reviews, he definitely will.
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Post by quetee on Sept 1, 2019 15:57:30 GMT
No one's a lock in September.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 1, 2019 17:09:02 GMT
Pre TIFF:
DiCaprio Driver Jordan Phoenix Pryce
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 1, 2019 17:10:49 GMT
Is this the earliest we've had this many Best Actor locks ever - assuming they really are "locks" as of August 31st: DiCaprio Driver Phoenix
Not saying the category isn't filled already either (Banderas, Bale etc) but I can't remember having 3 locks before September? Almost every other contender has now been seen and assessed a bit already now except De Niro, Chalamet and McKellen and maybe one or two more - Hopkins/Pryce has now played Telluride.........Motherless Brooklyn also etc. It does seem like this is the earliest that we've got a good sense of 3 nominees already because usually it seems like we have to wait until the end of the year to know if at least one widely predicted actor who has Best Actor buzz actually lives up to that hype.
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