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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 16:55:49 GMT
This year we might have up to three "category fraud" of sorts in the BSA lot. Hanks, Bale and Pitt being leads (or mostly leads) but competing in the supporting category. Just like last year, when Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were pushed in the supporting category to "make room" for Colman in leading. Pitt’s category fraud isn’t even that bad. Some of you are acting like he’s Jamie Foxx in Collateral or Ethan Hawke in Training Day. He’s a borderline lead. Hey, I'm not judging. I'll judge when I see it (I haven't yet).
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 17:41:53 GMT
Now, look at that: We ended up discussing about the supporting actors category in the thread of best leading actors category.
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Post by bob-coppola on Aug 3, 2019 20:27:45 GMT
It seems like it'll be a very crowded year. I ranked some guys I think are true threats, and tried to reason my ranking.
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker — Warner He has one of the most beloved roles in modern cinema/pop culture. People are always eager to see a new Joker iteration, and always root for its success. And it's not only popular, but it should be a very good acting showcase. WB is very confident in it, as it's playing in competition at Venice, and it's also going to TIFF (maybe Telluride too?). This movie will be widely seen, but the studio is making sure to position it as a prestige-priority that pundits, critics and industry people will see. If the movie is good (I'm guessing it's at least decent), it'll unite the general public and the highbrow Joaquin Phoenix fans who tried to make him happen for things like YWNRH and Her - and that might seal the deal.
2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story — Netflix A young actor who's working his way into being one of the most respected actors of his generation. He has his due awards breakout last year with Blackkklansman, which makes him somewhat "part of the circle" already. Marriage Story is shaping up to be at least a top 3 contender, which means Netflix will spend tons of money with campaigning. Add that to the exposure of The Report and Star Wars finale, and you'll have a very Adam Driver-ful end of the year. If Joker turns out to be worse or more polarizing than I expect it to be, Driver could surge as a more safe choice to win.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood — Sony Had it been a calmer year, I think Leo could win his #2 Oscar for this (he has the raves, the Tarantino hype and probably the box-office). However, some actors seem more likely to win and have their moment. It doesn't change Leo has everything to expect comfortably another nod. He might win the Comedy Globe as well if Sony chooses this path, and that could give him some momentum.
4. Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn — Warner I know he might've burned some bridges, and this is something to consider, but still the general public and at least a good chunk of the industry still respects Norton as an actor. Motherless Brooklyn seems like a very good role, and WB is obviously quite confident. It's going to TIFF and Telluride, and it's closing NYFF. Since 2013, three NYFF closing movies were flops: Miles Ahead, The Lost City of Z and Wonder Wheel (and I can't say they're failures, but comercially speaking, the at least underwhelmed). Others were Birdman, Her and At Eternity's Gate - that scored at least something with AMPAS. If it delivers, he can get in for his popularity and the fact he self-directed his performance.
5. Antonio Banderas, Dolor y Gloria — Sony Pictures Classics Buzz on him was very high right after Cannes, but now it seems a lot calmer. However, I can't think of anyone else to be the critics' champion this year, and even if it's not the biggest platform for your campaign, critics backing can revitalize Banderas' state in the race. Also, Dolor y Gloria will probably make an appearance at the Best International Film as well, which means voters should see his understated, but great performance.
6. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra — Fox I'm predicting Pitt to win BSA for OUATIH, and I'm not confident with him getting double nods (if this happens this year, I think Johansson is more likely to be the one). However, I think Ad Astra could be Gray's overdue awards-breakout and also a moneymaker. If it happens, it's hard not to see Pitt benefiting somehow of its success.
7. Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari — Fox I'm torn as to what expect of this movie, but it certainly will appeal to a less highbrow public and find its niche with the people who like so-called "dad-porn" movies. Also, some comic book fanboys will see it for Mangold, so it'll boost its BO prospects. Damon is liked by his peers and got in for his charisma-driven performance in The Martian.
8. Robert De Niro, The Irishman — Netflix It's De Niro in a Scorsese mob movie (that's also Marty's passion project). It's something there's no doubt that will work, at least quality-wise. However, even if it's Netflix's priority, it'll still be a CGI-filtered performance. Even if the de-aging is natural and looks good, it'll still be a huge talking point, and I fear people might not know how tu judge his acting if they know computers changed his face. And there's also the possibility that, even if it looks good, it might still be polarizing visual. I think it will somewhat work out and prove you can de-age people's face on film and not make it look awful, but I don't think it'll gather acting nominations.
9. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes — Netflix Yes, it's written by the guy who writes shitty biopics and gets his actors BA prizes. Thing is, it'll be Netflix's #3 horse, and I don't think being a third priority is enough to overcome the Netflix bias, even more if it doens't have stellar reviews. Which I don't think it'll get, because I don't think Meirelles still has a very good movie in him. Add that to the fact that the movie's subject isn't really appealing. We live in a very christian western world, but chiristian-themed movies aren't surebets. Of course, I don't think this will be something like God's Not Dead, it might even be critical of the church, but it doesn't seem like it's something people wanna see. The Pope is famous and influent, but he isn't as exciting as and doesn't have the same appeal as Churchill, Stephen Hawking and Freddie Mercury.
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman — Paramount I really want him to happen, but he needs some movies to fail so he can really be a threat. He has the raves and Rocketman has very good legs and turned out to be really liked by its public. It's populistic and made money, but I'm not sure the industry or critics will remember or care when it comes award season. Egerton and Paramount will have to campaign a lot.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 20:55:21 GMT
Driver, I can definitely see him getting a nod and maybe wining even.
But Phoenix or Pitt (for Astra), no I can't.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 3, 2019 21:14:15 GMT
It seems like it'll be a very crowded year. I ranked some guys I think are true threats, and tried to reason my ranking. 1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker — WarnerHe has one of the most beloved roles in modern cinema/pop culture. People are always eager to see a new Joker iteration, and always root for its success. And it's not only popular, but it should be a very good acting showcase. WB is very confident in it, as it's playing in competition at Venice, and it's also going to TIFF (maybe Telluride too?). This movie will be widely seen, but the studio is making sure to position it as a prestige-priority that pundits, critics and industry people will see. If the movie is good (I'm guessing it's at least decent), it'll unite the general public and the highbrow Joaquin Phoenix fans who tried to make him happen for things like YWNRH and Her - and that might seal the deal. 2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story — NetflixA young actor who's working his way into being one of the most respected actors of his generation. He has his due awards breakout last year with Blackkklansman, which makes him somewhat "part of the circle" already. Marriage Story is shaping up to be at least a top 3 contender, which means Netflix will spend tons of money with campaigning. Add that to the exposure of The Report and Star Wars finale, and you'll have a very Adam Driver-ful end of the year. If Joker turns out to be worse or more polarizing than I expect it to be, Driver could surge as a more safe choice to win. 3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood — SonyHad it been a calmer year, I think Leo could win his #2 Oscar for this (he has the raves, the Tarantino hype and probably the box-office). However, some actors seem more likely to win and have their moment. It doesn't change Leo has everything to expect comfortably another nod. He might win the Comedy Globe as well if Sony chooses this path, and that could give him some momentum. 4. Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn — WarnerI know he might've burned some bridges, and this is something to consider, but still the general public and at least a good chunk of the industry still respects Norton as an actor. Motherless Brooklyn seems like a very good role, and WB is obviously quite confident. It's going to TIFF and Telluride, and it's closing NYFF. Since 2013, three NYFF closing movies were flops: Miles Ahead, The Lost City of Z and Wonder Wheel (and I can't say they're failures, but comercially speaking, the at least underwhelmed). Others were Birdman, Her and At Eternity's Gate - that scored at least something with AMPAS. If it delivers, he can get in for his popularity and the fact he self-directed his performance. 5. Antonio Banderas, Dolor y Gloria — Sony Pictures ClassicsBuzz on him was very high right after Cannes, but now it seems a lot calmer. However, I can't think of anyone else to be the critics' champion this year, and even if it's not the biggest platform for your campaign, critics backing can revitalize Banderas' state in the race. Also, Dolor y Gloria will probably make an appearance at the Best International Film as well, which means voters should see his understated, but great performance. 6. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra — FoxI'm predicting Pitt to win BSA for OUATIH, and I'm not confident with him getting double nods (if this happens this year, I think Johansson is more likely to be the one). However, I think Ad Astra could be Gray's overdue awards-breakout and also a moneymaker. If it happens, it's hard not to see Pitt benefiting somehow of its success. 7. Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari — FoxI'm torn as to what expect of this movie, but it certainly will appeal to a less highbrow public and find its niche with the people who like so-called "dad-porn" movies. Also, some comic book fanboys will see it for Mangold, so it'll boost its BO prospects. Damon is liked by his peers and got in for his charisma-driven performance in The Martian. 8. Robert De Niro, The Irishman — NetflixIt's De Niro in a Scorsese mob movie (that's also Marty's passion project). It's something there's no doubt that will work, at least quality-wise. However, even if it's Netflix's priority, it'll still be a CGI-filtered performance. Even if the de-aging is natural and looks good, it'll still be a huge talking point, and I fear people might not know how tu judge his acting if they know computers changed his face. And there's also the possibility that, even if it looks good, it might still be polarizing visual. I think it will somewhat work out and prove you can de-age people's face on film and not make it look awful, but I don't think it'll gather acting nominations. 9. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes — NetflixYes, it's written by the guy who writes shitty biopics and gets his actors BA prizes. Thing is, it'll be Netflix's #3 horse, and I don't think being a third priority is enough to overcome the Netflix bias, even more if it doens't have stellar reviews. Which I don't think it'll get, because I don't think Meirelles still has a very good movie in him. Add that to the fact that the movie's subject isn't really appealing. We live in a very christian western world, but chiristian-themed movies aren't surebets. Of course, I don't think this will be something like God's Not Dead, it might even be critical of the church, but it doesn't seem like it's something people wanna see. The Pope is famous and influent, but he isn't as exciting as and doesn't have the same appeal as Churchill, Stephen Hawking and Freddie Mercury. 10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman — ParamountI really want him to happen, but he needs some movies to fail so he can really be a threat. He has the raves and Rocketman has very good legs and turned out to be really liked by its public. It's populistic and made money, but I'm not sure the industry or critics will remember or care when it comes award season. Egerton and Paramount will have to campaign a lot. This is great analysis, imo. We agree on many of the same points, and even with things I don't agree with, you make a good case for them. Driver, I can definitely see him getting a nod and maybe wining even. But Phoenix or Pitt (for Astra), no I can't. I can definitely see a path for Driver winning right now; although, there's a lot of question marks too like the big one is maybe the hype isn't real about Marriage Story. Of course, other questions like which actor actually has the best chance of winning from it, assuming that it does live up to the hype, and if it's not Driver, then how likely is it two actors could win from it. I agree about Pitt just because I think that he's got a much better shot in Supporting with OUATIH, but I think there's a path for Phoenix too, to win. There's a lot of question marks there of course too like Todd Phillips directing it, and maybe some voters not going for it because Joker is a comic book character, and only Heath Ledger has been able to win so far but The Dark Knight was one of the best reviewed films of the year. Plus, Ledger won LAFCA and was runner-up at NYFCC and NSFC, and swept all the televised awards. It's definitely possible Phoenix reaches the same level of acclaim or maybe even tops that, but the rest of the film gives me doubts. I do feel like if Phoenix ever does win an Academy Award that he seems like the right age right now while he's still fairly young, and because this year seems like a good time even though there's a lot of possible nominees, I don't see an obvious winner yet because there's no larger than life biopics that seem like a slamdunk to win.
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 3, 2019 21:27:26 GMT
It seems like it'll be a very crowded year. I ranked some guys I think are true threats, and tried to reason my ranking. 1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker — WarnerHe has one of the most beloved roles in modern cinema/pop culture. People are always eager to see a new Joker iteration, and always root for its success. And it's not only popular, but it should be a very good acting showcase. WB is very confident in it, as it's playing in competition at Venice, and it's also going to TIFF (maybe Telluride too?). This movie will be widely seen, but the studio is making sure to position it as a prestige-priority that pundits, critics and industry people will see. If the movie is good (I'm guessing it's at least decent), it'll unite the general public and the highbrow Joaquin Phoenix fans who tried to make him happen for things like YWNRH and Her - and that might seal the deal. 2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story — NetflixA young actor who's working his way into being one of the most respected actors of his generation. He has his due awards breakout last year with Blackkklansman, which makes him somewhat "part of the circle" already. Marriage Story is shaping up to be at least a top 3 contender, which means Netflix will spend tons of money with campaigning. Add that to the exposure of The Report and Star Wars finale, and you'll have a very Adam Driver-ful end of the year. If Joker turns out to be worse or more polarizing than I expect it to be, Driver could surge as a more safe choice to win. 3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood — SonyHad it been a calmer year, I think Leo could win his #2 Oscar for this (he has the raves, the Tarantino hype and probably the box-office). However, some actors seem more likely to win and have their moment. It doesn't change Leo has everything to expect comfortably another nod. He might win the Comedy Globe as well if Sony chooses this path, and that could give him some momentum. 4. Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn — WarnerI know he might've burned some bridges, and this is something to consider, but still the general public and at least a good chunk of the industry still respects Norton as an actor. Motherless Brooklyn seems like a very good role, and WB is obviously quite confident. It's going to TIFF and Telluride, and it's closing NYFF. Since 2013, three NYFF closing movies were flops: Miles Ahead, The Lost City of Z and Wonder Wheel (and I can't say they're failures, but comercially speaking, the at least underwhelmed). Others were Birdman, Her and At Eternity's Gate - that scored at least something with AMPAS. If it delivers, he can get in for his popularity and the fact he self-directed his performance. 5. Antonio Banderas, Dolor y Gloria — Sony Pictures ClassicsBuzz on him was very high right after Cannes, but now it seems a lot calmer. However, I can't think of anyone else to be the critics' champion this year, and even if it's not the biggest platform for your campaign, critics backing can revitalize Banderas' state in the race. Also, Dolor y Gloria will probably make an appearance at the Best International Film as well, which means voters should see his understated, but great performance. 6. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra — FoxI'm predicting Pitt to win BSA for OUATIH, and I'm not confident with him getting double nods (if this happens this year, I think Johansson is more likely to be the one). However, I think Ad Astra could be Gray's overdue awards-breakout and also a moneymaker. If it happens, it's hard not to see Pitt benefiting somehow of its success. 7. Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari — FoxI'm torn as to what expect of this movie, but it certainly will appeal to a less highbrow public and find its niche with the people who like so-called "dad-porn" movies. Also, some comic book fanboys will see it for Mangold, so it'll boost its BO prospects. Damon is liked by his peers and got in for his charisma-driven performance in The Martian. 8. Robert De Niro, The Irishman — NetflixIt's De Niro in a Scorsese mob movie (that's also Marty's passion project). It's something there's no doubt that will work, at least quality-wise. However, even if it's Netflix's priority, it'll still be a CGI-filtered performance. Even if the de-aging is natural and looks good, it'll still be a huge talking point, and I fear people might not know how tu judge his acting if they know computers changed his face. And there's also the possibility that, even if it looks good, it might still be polarizing visual. I think it will somewhat work out and prove you can de-age people's face on film and not make it look awful, but I don't think it'll gather acting nominations. 9. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes — NetflixYes, it's written by the guy who writes shitty biopics and gets his actors BA prizes. Thing is, it'll be Netflix's #3 horse, and I don't think being a third priority is enough to overcome the Netflix bias, even more if it doens't have stellar reviews. Which I don't think it'll get, because I don't think Meirelles still has a very good movie in him. Add that to the fact that the movie's subject isn't really appealing. We live in a very christian western world, but chiristian-themed movies aren't surebets. Of course, I don't think this will be something like God's Not Dead, it might even be critical of the church, but it doesn't seem like it's something people wanna see. The Pope is famous and influent, but he isn't as exciting as and doesn't have the same appeal as Churchill, Stephen Hawking and Freddie Mercury. 10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman — ParamountI really want him to happen, but he needs some movies to fail so he can really be a threat. He has the raves and Rocketman has very good legs and turned out to be really liked by its public. It's populistic and made money, but I'm not sure the industry or critics will remember or care when it comes award season. Egerton and Paramount will have to campaign a lot. Nice write-up and list of contenders....but don't you think it feels a little bit excessively white? If these projects don't end up sucking, these guys will probably be major contenders: Daniel Kaaylua- Queen And SlimMichael B Jordan - Just MercyEddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My NameIf Dolemite is actually good, I'd have Murphy as a dark horse for the win. He's a legend in the industry, most feel he should have won for Dreamgirls, and when Murphy nails a role, he really tends to nail it. Could see him getting a lot of backing if the film delivers.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 21:34:05 GMT
Oh, I'd love to see Murphy getting a nod. But I don't think it's very possible. Since he was robbed for Showgirls, he started playing in stupid comedies... Of course the academy loves come-backs...
For Driver (although I forgot to mention him before) I'm very positive. He's an up and coming actor and Baumbach's movie could easily be this year's Oscars favorite. I really believe it's gonna get a lot of love from the academy.
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Post by bob-coppola on Aug 3, 2019 21:38:41 GMT
morton TerryMontana I agree with that. I think Pitt could get a nod for Ad Astra, but it doesn't seem like a winning role. It could be one of those low-tier nominees that get in due to their movie's strenght. pupdurcs actually, I also think so! I think MBJ is also a strong contender, at least on paper, and could be as likely as Pryce and Egerton. I didn't put him on my top 10 because I feel reticent over Warner Bros. managing three BA campaigns and because I think Just Mercy will skip the fall festivals.
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 3, 2019 21:42:01 GMT
Oh, I'd love to see Murphy getting a nod. But I don't think it's very possible. Since he was robbed for Showgirls, he started playing in stupid comedies... Of course the academy loves come-backs... I think you mean Dreamgirls. Though I do have a soft spot for Showgirls I think Murphy has a great shot. His director is Craig Brewer, who directed Terrence Howard to a Best Actor nod in Hustle And Flow. There is a high profile supporting cast that will add attention to the film as well ( Wesley Snipes, Chris Rock, Keegan Michael Kay).The pedigree for an Oscar nod is there. And Netflix is the production company, so we know money will not be an issue for campaigning.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 21:46:43 GMT
Oh, I'd love to see Murphy getting a nod. But I don't think it's very possible. Since he was robbed for Showgirls, he started playing in stupid comedies... Of course the academy loves come-backs... I think you mean Dreamgirls. Though I do have a soft spot for Showgirls I think Murphy has a great shot. His director is Craig Brewer, who directed Terrence Howard to a Best Actor nod in Hustle And Flow. There is a high profile supporting cast that will add attention to the film as well ( Wesley Snipes, Chris Rock, Keegan Michael Kay).The pedigree for an Oscar nod is there. And Netflix is the production company, so we know money will not be an issue for campaigning. Yeah, well, you know...
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 21:50:04 GMT
On the other hand, Netflix also has the Irishman and Marriage Story. And I'm sure they'll campaign for De Niro and Driver for BA. Will they campaign for Murphy also?
And of course they have many more films they might want to push for the Oscars, which I can't recall right now...
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 3, 2019 21:55:34 GMT
Netflix are offering Murphy 70 million dollars to film a stand-up special.
I low-key believe Netflix have more invested in making Murphy happy than any of their other Best Actor contenders (DeNiro, Pryce, Driver). Make of that what you will, but as a company, they clearly have a lot more invested in Murphy long term.
DeNiro will get a big push because they invested so much in The Irishman, but because they are really trying to get into the Murphy stand-up special business, he may actually end up their biggest priority.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Aug 3, 2019 22:03:50 GMT
Netflix are offering Murphy 70 million dollars to film a stand-up special.
I low-key believe Netflix have more invested in making Murphy happy than any of their other Best Actor contenders (DeNiro, Pryce, Driver). Make of that what you will, but as a company, they clearly have a lot more invested in Murphy long term.
DeNiro will get a big push because they invested so much in The Irishman, but because they are really trying to get into the Murphy stand-up special business, he may actually end up their biggest priority. Well the prospect of Murphy doing another stand-up special is very enticing, hence why he's getting a huge paycheck from Netflix, given that's been forever since he last performed on a stage. If Dolemite's reviews are very good and Murphy gets enough praise for his performance, then they'll definitely try and give him a big push. I remain a bit skeptical of the movie's "Oscar chances", but the potential is definitely there.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 3, 2019 22:09:05 GMT
morton TerryMontana I agree with that. I think Pitt could get a nod for Ad Astra, but it doesn't seem like a winning role. It could be one of those low-tier nominees that get in due to their movie's strenght. pupdurcs actually, I also think so! I think MBJ is also a strong contender, at least on paper, and could be as likely as Pryce and Egerton. I didn't put him on my top 10 because I feel reticent over Warner Bros. managing three BA campaigns and because I think Just Mercy will skip the fall festivals. MBJ is someone else that I think has a path to win, but I feel like it's something that looks extremely baity early on, then turns out to be a "this had buzz" type of thing. TIFF's director Cameron Bailey did say that he thinks it has a good possibility to win the People's Choice Award, which is a very promising sign. Like you though I do worry about Warner Brothers ability to juggle three campaigns possibly four if The Ballad of Richard Jewell is released this year especially since Joaquin Phoenix looks like to be their main push for Best Actor. With Eddie Murphy, I think a nomination is possible, but I don't know about a win at this point. I think that he and Adam Sandler might have bad timing in that they're both competing for Best Actor in the same year, and both are former SNL cast members who can be great when they want to be, and have made a lot of money for the industry, but have also made a lot of bad films too. To my knowledge, Sandler doesn't have as difficult a reputation as Murphy has gotten, but on the other hand I think Murphy probably is seen as more talented of the two. Then, there's the fact that Netflix also has De Niro, Driver, and Pryce, and The Irishman and Marriage Story are Netflix's #1 and #2 Oscar pushes. It doesn't mean that they can't also campaign for Murphy, but I think a lot depends on whatever's best for their business and also who has the best chance of winning. I know that they want to make Murphy happy because of the deal that they're signing with him, but at the same time they also want The Irishman to be successful because of all the money that they've poured into it among other things that The Irishman winning big would do for them.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 3, 2019 22:11:17 GMT
On the other hand, Netflix also has the Irishman and Marriage Story. And I'm sure they'll campaign for De Niro and Driver for BA. Will they campaign for Murphy also? And of course they have many more films they might want to push for the Oscars, which I can't recall right now... They also have The Two Popes and The Laundromat which will at the very least likely result in another nomination for Meryl Streep.
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 3, 2019 22:17:17 GMT
morton TerryMontana I agree with that. I think Pitt could get a nod for Ad Astra, but it doesn't seem like a winning role. It could be one of those low-tier nominees that get in due to their movie's strenght. pupdurcs actually, I also think so! I think MBJ is also a strong contender, at least on paper, and could be as likely as Pryce and Egerton. I didn't put him on my top 10 because I feel reticent over Warner Bros. managing three BA campaigns and because I think Just Mercy will skip the fall festivals. MBJ is someone else that I think has a path to win, but I feel like it's something that looks extremely baity early on, then turns out to be a "this had buzz" type of thing. TIFF's director Cameron Bailey did say that he thinks it has a good possibility to win the People's Choice Award, which is a very promising sign. I feel MBJ is someone who is getting due for a nomination, but the Academy won't be ready to give him a win for awhile. He's still pretty young, a good looking movie star on top of the world....there are exceptions, but they tend to make guys like him wait awhile before giving them a win, if they decide to give them a win at all. Bradley Cooper is a good current example of that kind of star/leading man still waiting for a win, and they actually like him enough to give him multiple nods.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 22:33:30 GMT
Netflix are offering Murphy 70 million dollars to film a stand-up special.
I low-key believe Netflix have more invested in making Murphy happy than any of their other Best Actor contenders (DeNiro, Pryce, Driver). Make of that what you will, but as a company, they clearly have a lot more invested in Murphy long term.
DeNiro will get a big push because they invested so much in The Irishman, but because they are really trying to get into the Murphy stand-up special business, he may actually end up their biggest priority. I don't think money is an issue for Nerflix. But if they campaign for Murphy, De Niro, Driver, Pryce, Oldman maybe... it's like putting one against the other as the votes will be split. If they want these Oscars they should choose one or maybe two of their movies and push them as much as they can. Then again, I'm just saying, I dunno. I'm sure the Netflix guys know their shit.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Aug 4, 2019 10:03:19 GMT
It could make sense yes... probably has more chances there anyway. This year we might have up to three "category fraud" of sorts in the BSA lot. Hanks, Bale and Pitt being leads (or mostly leads) but competing in the supporting category. Just like last year, when Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were pushed in the supporting category to "make room" for Colman in leading. Yeah and Pacino is probably also more a leading role and will surely run for Supporting. Too bad for "true" supporting performances. I really hate that.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 4, 2019 10:58:14 GMT
This year we might have up to three "category fraud" of sorts in the BSA lot. Hanks, Bale and Pitt being leads (or mostly leads) but competing in the supporting category. Just like last year, when Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were pushed in the supporting category to "make room" for Colman in leading. Yeah and Pacino is probably also more a leading role and will surely run for Supporting. Too bad for "true" supporting performances. I really hate that. I don't know about that. He's supposed to be in the movie in the second half
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 5, 2019 16:07:49 GMT
I couldn't find a thread for this in Movie News, so I thought I'd put it here because I know awhile ago there was buzz for Affleck. It seems like more of a commercial play though.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 5, 2019 17:01:19 GMT
I couldn't find a thread for this in Movie News, so I thought I'd put it here because I know awhile ago there was buzz for Affleck. It seems like more of a commercial play though. He will definitely win the Oscar for this... Kidding.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Aug 8, 2019 4:23:50 GMT
1. Kayuula 2. Banderas 3. DiCaprio 4. Driver 5. Phoenix
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 13, 2019 3:32:16 GMT
Kris Tapley's acting predictions so far.
Best Actor: Bale, Banderas, DiCaprio, Driver (Marriage Story), and Jordan
Best Supporting Actor: Dafoe (The Lighthouse?), Hanks, Letts (Ford v Ferrari), Pacino, and Pitt
Not bad except for his love of Ford v Ferrari, but other than that, these are pretty much in line with mine for the most part.
Interesting that he'd not predicting Murphy for Dolemite Is My Name because he's said tweeted some good things about it, and gave it a good rating on Letterboxd too, before he deleted it. Maybe my bias is coming into play, but that tells me that it's not an Oscar contender but just a Globes, maybe SAG, thing.
He also had ratings for Marriage Story, The Two Popes, and The Laundromat before he took them all down. I think that Marriage Story and Dolemite Is My Name had the highest ratings of the 4 movies, and then The Two Popes and The Laundromat I think he both gave 3 stars too.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 13, 2019 6:29:20 GMT
No Chalamet, Murphy, De Niro, Pryce... Also I'm not sure about Bale.
But I could see his predictions coming true.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Aug 14, 2019 18:14:34 GMT
My first predictions for this category:
Robert De Niro - The Irishman Of my predicted nominees, I'm probably most iffy about De Niro. Starting to get the feeling he might not get much traction. I don't have a very good feeling about those de-aging special effects and I think they will work against him, especially in a subdued performance where subtle acting work can be (incorrectly) accredited to the CGI. Heck, he may even do great work that gets dissipated by the CGI.
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Looks like a likely nominee based on getting established early and seemingly checking all the boxes. He should be good for the Globes and SAG, at least, which means he's already a contender no matter the competition, but this has the potential to be a deep year so he's not a lock yet. To be pushed out, though, the rest of the contenders and their movies will have to show up.
Adam Driver - Marriage Story Adam Driver is hot right now, and his movie is shaping up to be a top contender at the Oscars. My tentative predicted winner, just because there are almost no viable contenders for the win, even if his role doesn't have the attributes of a traditional Best Actor winner. But in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Michael Jordan - Just Mercy Spotty track record of the director notwithstanding, Warner Brothers is showing confidence in this and it feels like Oscar material. But it's mostly a gut feeling, because Jordan has been turning in good work for a while and I think the Academy is probably looking for an opportunity to invite him to the club. So unless the movie disappoints or Foxx has a much showier role and completely outshines Jordan, I think he will make it in.
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker I hope I'm not getting carried away by the recent hype over this on Awards Watch, but we are (ironically, because it's a comic book role) talking about the most showy and transformative role of the year, and it's being performed by an actor that is strangely ideal for it. I don't, however, buy this as a winner because I think the shadow of Heath Ledger will prove too long, even if it isn't long enough to prevent Phoenix from being nominated for what I think will be an original take on the iconic character.
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