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Post by therealcomicman117 on Sept 11, 2019 2:15:49 GMT
This is my lineup too right now. For some reason I don't see both Zellweger and Theron making it in unless Harriet flops, I guess because both roles involve transformation, and Zellweger should definitely be in with her reviews. Plus, they've passed over Theron for both Young Adult, in a weak year, and Fury Road in another not so strong year, so I wouldn't be surprised if that were to happen again. Whoops looks like I put my kiss of death on another movie/actor although so far my luck has been pretty good this season. Anyhow it looks like Erivo's chances to win are done. I don't even think she gets the nomination with how people are tearing apart Harriet on Twitter now. Best Actress is empty, but it's not that empty. Ha, I wouldn't put yourself down too much in regards to your prediction. Most people were predicting Ervivo too, she was even considered the frontrunner near the beginning. If anything Harriet turning out to be a "dud", probably gives Zellwegger a better chance at a nod, provided Judy isn't a dud itself (please don't be), and the possibility of Woodward and maybe Theron scoring nominations all that higher. Definitely makes the race more interesting now.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 11, 2019 7:10:23 GMT
I have no idea who's gonna be the critical darling this year. Renee? Awkwafina?
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 11, 2019 7:34:52 GMT
I have no idea who's gonna be the critical darling this year. Renee? Awkwafina? Alfre Woodard? Or ScarJo?
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 11, 2019 7:55:26 GMT
I have no idea who's gonna be the critical darling this year. Renee? Awkwafina? I have no idea who's gonna be the critical darling this year. Renee? Awkwafina? Alfre Woodard? Or ScarJo? So far at least it seems like the critics awards for Best Actress could really be spread out with maybe each big award going to a different person. Maybe in the supporting categories too, but I could see the same person or same two people winning everything like what usually happens.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 11, 2019 8:02:03 GMT
If Erivo is out or weakened it locks ScarJo and hurts Driver - every time ScarJo is mentioned for the win hurts Driver because male lead and female lead haven't won together in 20 years. I'm saying that can't happen because again Driver isn't the whole show and male BA winners are the whole show almost always.
Zellwegger is in a weak film and this opens up room for my beloved Helen Mirren if The Good Liar is as good as the book. Sometimes I wonder if skipping festivals isn't wise for some films.....
Woodard may get a nod but I doubt she gets it at Erivo's expense and I'm a fan of hers (she does TV/stage/film so she's someone I lean towards) and these movies are all weak sauce compared to Marriage Story (haven't seen) which is why it's ScarJo's year.
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 11, 2019 8:22:05 GMT
Renee is playing a Hollywood legend and she has the biggest raves in the race. ScarJo needs Driver to fail in order to win.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 11, 2019 9:29:03 GMT
Maybe the time has come for the two leads of the same movie to win the Oscar.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 11, 2019 10:12:46 GMT
Maybe the time has come for the two leads of the same movie to win the Oscar. Yes, it's been over 20 years now, so I feel that we're due. The problem is though if Laura Dern wins her category which it looks like she will because her category is the weakest of the 3, imo, and she fits the pattern of a veteran character actress that they award there lately, I don't see Marriage Story being able to pull off a Network or A Streetcar Named Desire. Never say never, but I'm guessing that Phoenix or Pryce would win actor instead, and/or Zellweger or someone else in actress to stop it from happening.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 11, 2019 10:16:45 GMT
Maybe the time has come for the two leads of the same movie to win the Oscar. Yes, it's been over 20 years now, so I feel that we're due. The problem is though if Laura Dern wins her category which it looks like she will because her category is the weakest of the 3, imo, and she fits the pattern of a veteran character actress that they award there lately, I don't see Marriage Story being able to pull off a Network or A Streetcar Named Desire. Never say never, but I'm guessing that Phoenix or Pryce would win actor instead, and/or Zellweger or someone else in actress to stop it from happening. Yes you're right about that. Not very likely.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Sept 11, 2019 14:54:49 GMT
Completely uninteresting race so far but looking forward to a Johansson win - I'll take her over Portman, Stone, Larson, Lawrence etc. etc. any day.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 11, 2019 18:58:58 GMT
Judging by Harriet's reviews so far, I wouldn't write off Erivo as a potential winner quite yet. The reviews are actually better than the initial twitter reactions suggested, and the fact that it's supposedly a pretty conventional and "safe" biopic could actually work in the film's favor. Erivo will probably campaign hard, and given the fact that there are very few POC in the BP contenders this year, I think there's the possibility that Erivo could benefit from voters feeling compelled to award her with the type of role it is to avoid potential backlash about an all white group of winners. Not saying she's a lock to win at all, but I don't think we should dismiss her too soon.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 11, 2019 19:27:04 GMT
Judging by Harriet's reviews so far, I wouldn't write off Erivo as a potential winner quite yet. The reviews are actually better than the initial twitter reactions suggested, and the fact that it's supposedly a pretty conventional and "safe" biopic could actually work in the film's favor. Erivo will probably campaign hard, and given the fact that there are very few POC in the BP contenders this year, I think there's the possibility that Erivo could benefit from voters feeling compelled to award her with the type of role it is to avoid potential backlash about an all white group of winners. Not saying she's a lock to win at all, but I don't think we should dismiss her too soon. I do have a tendency to do that, but I'll try not to jinx her so soon by declaring her the winner again, lol. You make a lot of great points though. I think that voters do nominate and vote for who they think are worthy, but I also think that some voters may also try to be more sensitive or at least aware of possible POC nominees/winners now. Sometimes things work out like last year where there were more options that were backed by critics and/or at the box office, but this year there's not really a lot of options. Unless Just Mercy wins or places in the People's Choice Award, it doesn't seem like it will be enough of a crowdpleaser that voters will go for. Waves seems too out there, and reaction is more mixed now than the first reactions out of Telluride. Dolemite Is My Name could also win or place at Toronto, but if it doesn't, it might get lost in the shuffle because Netflix has at least 3 other films that they're going to be pushing as much or even more, and unfortunately for Murphy it seems like The Two Popes can go Comedy/Musical, and has better reviews and is also a crowdpleaser too, which means Murphy could lose there to Pryce especially since Pryce is playing a more known person and also because Anthony McCarten probably made some kind of deal with the devil or something where the films will always win Best Actor now. (I'm only half joking about that last part.) There's Queen & Slim, but no word on that yet. Then, there's a few possibilities like Alfre Woodard, Octavia Spencer, and Lupita Nyong'o, but they would probably be only lone nominees, and they all have a lot of things to overcome even in a weak year for both acting categories. So I think there's only Harriet as another possible option this year. I said it before that I didn't think the "basicness" of the trailer as a sign that the film was basic was necessarily a bad thing because there are people who like films like that. Of course, I panicked after the first reactions, but reviews seem to be much better than I thought they were going to be. So I guess it's basic, but maybe not any more basic than other biopics that have been nominated over the years.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 11, 2019 22:56:33 GMT
Judging by Harriet's reviews so far, I wouldn't write off Erivo as a potential winner quite yet. The reviews are actually better than the initial twitter reactions suggested, and the fact that it's supposedly a pretty conventional and "safe" biopic could actually work in the film's favor. Erivo will probably campaign hard, and given the fact that there are very few POC in the BP contenders this year, I think there's the possibility that Erivo could benefit from voters feeling compelled to award her with the type of role it is to avoid potential backlash about an all white group of winners. Not saying she's a lock to win at all, but I don't think we should dismiss her too soon. Harriett has to be a strong contender for BP (like The Favourite) or Erivo needs to be the critics darling (like Brie Larson) - to have a competitive chance. If she is neither, I can't see voters being compelled to award her because of race - especially if there are stronger contenders.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 12, 2019 0:00:03 GMT
Judging by Harriet's reviews so far, I wouldn't write off Erivo as a potential winner quite yet. The reviews are actually better than the initial twitter reactions suggested, and the fact that it's supposedly a pretty conventional and "safe" biopic could actually work in the film's favor. Erivo will probably campaign hard, and given the fact that there are very few POC in the BP contenders this year, I think there's the possibility that Erivo could benefit from voters feeling compelled to award her with the type of role it is to avoid potential backlash about an all white group of winners. Not saying she's a lock to win at all, but I don't think we should dismiss her too soon. Harriett has to be a strong contender for BP (like The Favourite) or Erivo needs to be the critics darling (like Brie Larson) - to have a competitive chance. If she is neither, I can't see voters being compelled to award her because of race - especially if there are stronger contenders.
I don't think she has to be in a strong BP contender necessarily, but yeah I would feel more confident if her film managed to score a BP nomination and maybe some other below the line nomination at least, which I don't think is out of the realm of possibility at this point. We'll see when more reviews are added, but right now it's at least not getting panned. We've seen how the AMPAS still likes to reward historical biopics with baity performances at the center even if the reviews for the films themselves are more muted. Even if someone like ScarJo has a significantly stronger film around her, part of me can't help but think about the optics of rewarding someone with a recent history of making questionable statements regarding representation in Hollywood over one of the only POC contenders this year.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 12, 2019 2:36:02 GMT
Harriett has to be a strong contender for BP (like The Favourite) or Erivo needs to be the critics darling (like Brie Larson) - to have a competitive chance. If she is neither, I can't see voters being compelled to award her because of race - especially if there are stronger contenders.
I don't think she has to be in a strong BP contender necessarily, but yeah I would feel more confident if her film managed to score a BP nomination and maybe some other below the line nomination at least, which I don't think is out of the realm of possibility at this point. We'll see when more reviews are added, but right now it's at least not getting panned. We've seen how the AMPAS still likes to reward historical biopics with baity performances at the center even if the reviews for the films themselves are more muted. Even if someone like ScarJo has a significantly stronger film around her, part of me can't help but think about the optics of rewarding someone with a recent history of making questionable statements regarding representation in Hollywood over one of the only POC contenders this year. But if you look at the last 10 years, there have been a lot more non-bio pic winners for Best Actress.
True, Harriett isn't getting pan and Ervio is getting good reviews - but it's not "this is the big Oscar performance, the one to beat"
Keep in mind with ScarJo - she has made money for Hollywood. And BA is usually given someone established in Hollywood. AMPAS is not going to be dictated by Twitter.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 12, 2019 3:37:16 GMT
I don't think she has to be in a strong BP contender necessarily, but yeah I would feel more confident if her film managed to score a BP nomination and maybe some other below the line nomination at least, which I don't think is out of the realm of possibility at this point. We'll see when more reviews are added, but right now it's at least not getting panned. We've seen how the AMPAS still likes to reward historical biopics with baity performances at the center even if the reviews for the films themselves are more muted. Even if someone like ScarJo has a significantly stronger film around her, part of me can't help but think about the optics of rewarding someone with a recent history of making questionable statements regarding representation in Hollywood over one of the only POC contenders this year. But if you look at the last 10 years, there have been a lot more non-bio pic winners for Best Actress.
True, Harriett isn't getting pan and Ervio is getting good reviews - but it's not "this is the big Oscar performance, the one to beat"
Keep in mind with ScarJo - she has made money for Hollywood. And BA is usually given someone established in Hollywood. AMPAS is not going to be dictated by Twitter.
Most of the time I would definitely pick Johansson to win Best Actress since she'll have the strongest film and is also one of the top box office draws right now, and Hollywood usually loves to have a coronation for stars by awarding them the Oscar. This year just seems different right now though because Dern seems pretty locked in for her category because Best Supporting Actress is so weak, and she got enough to win plus is a respected veteran that fits the pattern of recent Supporting Actress winners. So I could see Marriage Story being able to win two awards like The Fighter, Dallas Buyers Club, and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing Missouri were able to do this decade, but Best Actor complicates things a lot. Driver has the reviews and will likely win most a good deal of critics prizes, and with Joker stumbling a bit at Toronto compared to Venice, he could be in the much stronger film of the two. I could see Driver and Johansson winning like As Good As It Gets, but I don't see it pulling off a Network even if right now it seems like there's a path there for all 3. I don't know who loses though out of Driver and Johansson. Johansson fits more of the Best Actress mold, but Zellweger has got great reviews and has the role. However, she's already a winner, and basically dropped off the face of the Earth for a long time, and Judy won't be a Best Picture nominee. Driver is facing tougher competition, but I feel like he has the best reviews so far and that might make him pretty undeniable even when the switch happens to the televised awards. Plus, the discourse over Joker, and how that might help or hurt its chances in other categories besides Best Actor. There's also Pryce, but even though everyone seems to love The Two Popes so far, I don't get an undeniable Freddie Mercury/Stephen Hawking type of vibe from what I've read so far. Plus, Hopkins also getting a lot of praise as well, so most of the focus isn't just on Pryce. I guess it's possible they both end up losing, and Dern is the only one that wins, but that seems odd too because of how much praise there's been for the film especially for the leads.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 12, 2019 3:50:45 GMT
I don't think she has to be in a strong BP contender necessarily, but yeah I would feel more confident if her film managed to score a BP nomination and maybe some other below the line nomination at least, which I don't think is out of the realm of possibility at this point. We'll see when more reviews are added, but right now it's at least not getting panned. We've seen how the AMPAS still likes to reward historical biopics with baity performances at the center even if the reviews for the films themselves are more muted. Even if someone like ScarJo has a significantly stronger film around her, part of me can't help but think about the optics of rewarding someone with a recent history of making questionable statements regarding representation in Hollywood over one of the only POC contenders this year. But if you look at the last 10 years, there have been a lot more non-bio pic winners for Best Actress.
True, Harriett isn't getting pan and Ervio is getting good reviews - but it's not "this is the big Oscar performance, the one to beat"
Keep in mind with ScarJo - she has made money for Hollywood. And BA is usually given someone established in Hollywood. AMPAS is not going to be dictated by Twitter.
True, though I would also point out that the BA category within the last decade has been pretty sparse in terms of roles that we would consider to be among the pantheon of important historical figures like Harriet Tubman. I mean all we've really had is Margaret Thatcher (which Streep won for obviously), Jackie Kennedy (Portman was arguably runner up in the category that year), and Marilyn Monroe (same year Streep won). So I feel like the lack of biopic winners really just comes down to the kinds of roles that happened to be in contention each year within the past decade. On top of that, we of course haven't had many POC lead actresses in contention this past decade, much less any who had a remote chance of winning other than Viola Davis. The combination of a POC role with what happens to be an important historical figure is something that we haven't had at all among BA nominees recently, so to me it seems premature to write Erivo off completely. She's at least good for a nomination I think at this point, and I think she'll definitely stand out among the rest of the nominees. I agree that the effect of online controversies on voting is definitely overstated (one thing we learned last year), though I think in this case the issue of representation will continue to be at the forefront of voters' minds since #OscarsSoWhite is still a lingering issue.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 12, 2019 14:17:34 GMT
But if you look at the last 10 years, there have been a lot more non-bio pic winners for Best Actress.
True, Harriett isn't getting pan and Ervio is getting good reviews - but it's not "this is the big Oscar performance, the one to beat"
Keep in mind with ScarJo - she has made money for Hollywood. And BA is usually given someone established in Hollywood. AMPAS is not going to be dictated by Twitter.
True, though I would also point out that the BA category within the last decade has been pretty sparse in terms of roles that we would consider to be among the pantheon of important historical figures like Harriet Tubman. I mean all we've really had is Margaret Thatcher (which Streep won for obviously), Jackie Kennedy (Portman was arguably runner up in the category that year), and Marilyn Monroe (same year Streep won). So I feel like the lack of biopic winners really just comes down to the kinds of roles that happened to be in contention each year within the past decade. On top of that, we of course haven't had many POC lead actresses in contention this past decade, much less any who had a remote chance of winning other than Viola Davis. The combination of a POC role with what happens to be an important historical figure is something that we haven't had at all among BA nominees recently, so to me it seems premature to write Erivo off completely. She's at least good for a nomination I think at this point, and I think she'll definitely stand out among the rest of the nominees. I agree that the effect of online controversies on voting is definitely overstated (one thing we learned last year), though I think in this case the issue of representation will continue to be at the forefront of voters' minds since #OscarsSoWhite is still a lingering issue. Being a POC color in bio pic is not enough - to get a win over stronger films, more critically acclaimed performances - and popular Hollywood names. Bio pic? Renee Zellweger's in a bio pic and is seen as strong contender. Oscar So White? Emma Stone won over Ruth Negga. But Stone was in a popular Best Picture contender and a more established name than Negga.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 12, 2019 18:08:34 GMT
True, though I would also point out that the BA category within the last decade has been pretty sparse in terms of roles that we would consider to be among the pantheon of important historical figures like Harriet Tubman. I mean all we've really had is Margaret Thatcher (which Streep won for obviously), Jackie Kennedy (Portman was arguably runner up in the category that year), and Marilyn Monroe (same year Streep won). So I feel like the lack of biopic winners really just comes down to the kinds of roles that happened to be in contention each year within the past decade. On top of that, we of course haven't had many POC lead actresses in contention this past decade, much less any who had a remote chance of winning other than Viola Davis. The combination of a POC role with what happens to be an important historical figure is something that we haven't had at all among BA nominees recently, so to me it seems premature to write Erivo off completely. She's at least good for a nomination I think at this point, and I think she'll definitely stand out among the rest of the nominees. I agree that the effect of online controversies on voting is definitely overstated (one thing we learned last year), though I think in this case the issue of representation will continue to be at the forefront of voters' minds since #OscarsSoWhite is still a lingering issue. Being a POC color in bio pic is not enough - to get a win over stronger films, more critically acclaimed performances - and popular Hollywood names. Bio pic? Renee Zellweger's in a bio pic and is seen as strong contender. Oscar So White? Emma Stone won over Ruth Negga. But Stone was in a popular Best Picture contender and a more established name than Negga.
Like I said, I would have more confidence if the film scored a BP nomination at least. In Zellweger's case, I don't see her reviews as being undeniable, and I also don't see people rushing to give her a second Oscar, so I would actually say Erivo is in a better position than her. Ruth Negga was something of a surprise Oscar nominee (having only shown up as a GG nominee iirc), and was never going to win. Her performance was also extremely low key, and is not the type of performance that usually wins anyway whereas Erivo's role is super baity.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 12, 2019 19:00:20 GMT
Being a POC color in bio pic is not enough - to get a win over stronger films, more critically acclaimed performances - and popular Hollywood names. Bio pic? Renee Zellweger's in a bio pic and is seen as strong contender. Oscar So White? Emma Stone won over Ruth Negga. But Stone was in a popular Best Picture contender and a more established name than Negga.
Like I said, I would have more confidence if the film scored a BP nomination at least. In Zellweger's case, I don't see her reviews as being undeniable, and I also don't see people rushing to give her a second Oscar, so I would actually say Erivo is in a better position than her. Ruth Negga was something of a surprise Oscar nominee (having only shown up as a GG nominee iirc), and was never going to win. Her performance was also extremely low key, and is not the type of performance that usually wins anyway whereas Erivo's role is super baity. Not saying that Erivo will be a factor or not, but that year Ali and Davis were locked especially the latter, and Washington made Best Actor somewhat competitive because he won SAG and the whole discourse around Affleck. Of course, I don't think voters are thinking "oh I better vote for a POC", but I do think that some voters are more aware/sensitive of the issue now in both phases of the awards. It might not mean anything for Erivo's chances, but this year it does seem like all the acting winners might all be white. Also other than Parasite and The Farewell seem like they'll do well overall which I love because Asians tend to get ignored, but it's a double edged sword because it seems like when the media talks about lack of diversity with the nominees or winners, they don't care about Asian representation either. Outside of those though, most of the Best Picture contenders seem pretty white. So I do wonder if that will be a potential factor in phase I and phase II. I saw something earlier today related to that. I guess Mark Harris is going to be covering Vanity Fair's Oscar coverage this year, and he promoted this article today. Oscars 2020: The Academy's Identity Crisis Continues, Right on Schedule. (Vanity Fair's website sucks though, so I could only read part of the article.)
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 12, 2019 20:53:34 GMT
Erivo is not going to win or lose because of the demo. As Mark Harris said, the Academy is not a monolithic body, so to think this diverse Academy will vote for POC for diversity's sake is short-sighted.
We'll need to see the campaigns and the performances, but as things stand, the nomination slate will be pretty diverse, but the winners slate might be fully white again.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 16, 2019 17:02:33 GMT
Awkwafina Erivo Johansson Ronan Zellweger
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Post by bob-coppola on Sept 21, 2019 15:04:30 GMT
My God, this category is a dire this year I was waiting for the fall festivals to see if any new contender would emerge (I was counting on Sarandon, but it didn't happen) 1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story — NetflixIt's her crowning moment. Marriage Story is the biggest mainstream critical success of the year, and Netflix will give it a big, expensive campaign. I read her role is bigger in the first half of the movie, but I don't think it'll be a big problem. Screentime wasn't a problem for Colman, and ScarJo has the advantage of starring in a two-handler "romantic" drama. The feminine half of those flicks are usually the ones who get the Oscar (think of Lawrence in SLP, who also had quite less screentime than Cooper, or Paltrow in SIL). She has the performance and she has the role (a mother, an actress... are you kidding?). The only con is her... hm... controversial statements. But I truly believe she's not alone in endorsing Woody Allen and wanting to play every single race and tree. 2. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women — Sony/Columbia
Unless Little Women is a failure (which I don't think it'll be after seeing the trailer), I don't see her missing with such an iconic role and in such a weak year. If it wasn't for ScarJo, I'd predict her for the win. I know, no one ever won the Oscar for playing Jo March, but it's the most Saoirse Ronan role she could've found. It's everything people loved about Brooklyn and Lady Bird, and Ronan would've benefitted from "pandering" to her own on-screen persona. 3. Renee Zellweger, Judy — RoadsideI was really skeptical, but I guess this is the world we live in. She's got raves and her movie is also well-recieved. She'll probably be a lone nom, but from what I see in internet reactions, she'll have the passion to be nominated. That said, I think a win is a big stretch. I don't see Zellweger joining the ranks of Frances McDormand, Jane Fonda, Jodie Foster and Cate Blanchett before Lawrence, Stone or Portman, neither with a movie that's not likely to be embraced by the Academy after being gone for 15 years. 4. Awkwafina, The Farewell — A24I'm betting on her to be the critical darling. This and the fact that Awkwafina has such a magnetic personality make me very confident on her. The Farewell also became a story of an indie being very successful, so I think she can be the David vs Goliath that becomes a well-known face in the awards run this season. 5. Charlize Theron, Bombshell — LionsgateBuzz on this movie was really bad, and then it became pretty good, so I'm cautious. However, if it's good, then Theron is the best bet to get the #5 spot. She'll have the most transformative role, she has the timely subject and a movie that could mimick Vice's success. 6. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts — AmazonI'm not very confident at all, but I need some back-up plan as I don't think my #4 and #5 are such sure-things. 7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet — FocusSame. But I'm only considering Erivo because for some reason other people are. It doesn't sound any smart to me to predict her after her movie being rotten on RT, having very little passion overall, that god-awful trailer, that industry people don't usually like Erivo as a person and the fact that we don't even know if it'll at least make money. Thing is, Focus has moved on from Harriet and will bet on Dark Waters.
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Post by bob-coppola on Sept 21, 2019 19:00:24 GMT
Actually, if Thomasin McKenzie is placed as lead by FSL, I'd rank her above Jones and Erivo. Jojo Rabbit is so liked by people that I believe it'll overcome its mixed reviews and be embraced by the industry. If that happens, I think we should watch out for McKenzie, as her storyline is the element of the movie everyone seems to agree is very good.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 21, 2019 20:13:07 GMT
My God, this category is a dire this year *proceeds to name five performances that are going to be amazing or have already been confirmed as amazing
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