morton
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Post by morton on Aug 10, 2019 19:17:57 GMT
Regina King was not nominated for BAFTA and she won over a British actress (Rachel Weisz). King wasn't nominated by SAG either, which rarely happens with eventual winners. We gonna discount the influence of SAG now because of exceptions like Regina King? C'mon. I do think there's a British voting bloc, but I don't know if it necessarily means a lot. I think it just depends on the race. Like with Olivia Colman and Glenn Close, if it was a really close race, I could see that bloc being the tipping point for Colman winning. With SAG, with the merger I could see them getting further and further apart from AMPAS especially as AMPAS usually has at least one surprise nominee every year now since they started going for more diversity (Marina de Tavira, Ruth Negga). It wasn't just the Regina King thing; although that was part of it. Maybe they would have nominated her if screeners had come out earlier. For me the bigger thing is that they haven't nominated the Best Picture winner for SAG Ensemble in the last 3 years. An argument could be made that La La Land and Green Book were two handers, but this is SAG, and they've never really cared about being all that logical, imo. They really should have got The Shape of Water though. Then there's the fact that after the merger it seems more difficult perhaps impossible for a foreign language performance now to be nominated by them. Netflix spend millions trying to woo them with very fancy packaging to make Roma screeners standout, and they still went for Emily Blunt in a late screener and Margot Robbie in a failed period piece and Emily Blunt again in a horror-thriller film. I mean on one hand I do think it's good that there's a little bit of variation now instead of when they were just carbon copies of the Oscar nominations, but at the same time, I do think that the merger has made them a less reliable precursor than they were before. Maybe I'll be wrong, and the last few years have just been an abnormality, and things will return to how they were, but I expect we'll see more wins like for Elba and Blunt.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Aug 10, 2019 19:27:50 GMT
For me the bigger thing is that they haven't nominated the Best Picture winner for SAG Ensemble in the last 3 year years. An argument could be made that La La Land and Green Book were two handers, but this is SAG, and they've never really cared about being all that logical, imo. They really should have got The Shape of Water though. I think you missed the last 3 minutes of that broadcast.
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 10, 2019 19:35:04 GMT
True.But I'd counter that like Driving Miss Daisy, Green Book was actually made for white people to feel better about themselves. It didn't need African-American suppport or affirmation. There is no white co/main lead in Harriet whose perspective you see the story through. No Jessica Tandy or Viggo Mortensen. It's the story of an African-American hero told through her perspective. At least from a commercial perspective, a film like Harriet relies on African-Americans supporting it, in a way films like Green Book and Driving Miss Daisy and The Blindside (insert whatever white savior movie) don't. Ultimately, Harriet's problem is that it's not a white savior narrative. We know those movies can survive these things unscathed.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Aug 10, 2019 19:46:06 GMT
Regina King was not nominated for BAFTA and she won over a British actress (Rachel Weisz). King wasn't nominated by SAG either, which rarely happens with eventual winners. We gonna discount the influence of SAG now because of exceptions like Regina King? C'mon. But people here bet against Regina King. They were too fixated on SAG and BAFTA. Even though the pundits, oddsmakers had her as the clear runner.
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 10, 2019 19:54:45 GMT
King wasn't nominated by SAG either, which rarely happens with eventual winners. We gonna discount the influence of SAG now because of exceptions like Regina King? C'mon. But people here bet against Regina King. They were too fixated on SAG and BAFTA. Even though the pundits, oddsmakers had her as the clear runner.
I think morton post above makes a good point about the possibly changing dynamics of SAG.Maybe some of the precursors( BAFTA, SAG etc) are becoming less reliable, but we've been going by them for years, so even if they occasionally fail us, we still stick with them. I mean, elections haven't stopped using exit polls just because they all wrongly predicted that Hilary Clinton won the US Presidential election Basically shit happens. Sometimes people makes wrong calls.
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Post by dmitriyuriev on Aug 10, 2019 20:23:36 GMT
Perception matters. BAFTA is part of the Oscar season. The only person it consistently arguably doesnt affect at all is Denzel Washington, whom the Academy will always acknowledge without any BAFTA recognition. But yeah, the simple fact of being nominated and/or winning a BAFTA does influence American or international Academy voters. Hence the power of the British bloc. It doesn't always neccesarily convert to an Oscar win, but the influence is there. All those Hollywood stars looking for an Oscar don't fly out for one rainy night in London because it doesn't matter. If BAFTA anoint Erivo, she'll probably at least get the nomination. Regina King was not nominated for BAFTA and she won over a British actress (Rachel Weisz). Weisz had already won an Oscar, she had never won a BAFTA, so her win there wasn’t seen as being some big achievement. The other precursors were all over the place, King won the Globe and was the critics darling, while Blunt won SAG and she didn’t even get an Oscar nom. All they are saying is that BAFTA has some influence, they’re not saying that a BAFTA alone is enough to give you an Oscar win.
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Post by dmitriyuriev on Aug 10, 2019 20:29:47 GMT
King wasn't nominated by SAG either, which rarely happens with eventual winners. We gonna discount the influence of SAG now because of exceptions like Regina King? C'mon. But people here bet against Regina King. They were too fixated on SAG and BAFTA. Even though the pundits, oddsmakers had her as the clear runner.
The thing about King is that she had a studio that was having financial issues, didn’t give a proper campaign to the film and if I’m not mistaken they even sent late screeners to SAG. SAG is a group that starts voting in mid November which makes no sense at all considering they have online voting, can’t they wait until December so they have a chance to see everything? This year is is probably going to be odd too, since voting will be earlier, so we might not be able to rely as heavily on precursors with the Oscars?
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 10, 2019 20:58:04 GMT
For me the bigger thing is that they haven't nominated the Best Picture winner for SAG Ensemble in the last 3 year years. An argument could be made that La La Land and Green Book were two handers, but this is SAG, and they've never really cared about being all that logical, imo. They really should have got The Shape of Water though. I think you missed the last 3 minutes of that broadcast. lol, how could I forget such a memorable moment?!? Sorry I just think it's still weird that SAG didn't nominate La La Land in Ensemble even though it's a two hander because they've made some questionable choices over the years. Like last year Bohemian Rhapsody being nominated there despite the fact that it's basically the Rami Malek show with Lucy Boynton being the only other actor, at least to me, that stood out in a good way. Or Beasts of No Nation being nominated a few years back?!? I guess it could have been a sign that it wasn't really that strong, but I also think that it has to do with SAG not being as accurate as they before their merger. Although obviously I'll still look to them when trying to figure out whose going to be nominated or win for the Oscar.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 13, 2019 3:36:01 GMT
The rest of Kris Tapley's predictions:
Best Actress: Erivo, Johansson, Ronan, Turner-Smith, Zellweger
Best Supporting Actress: Dern, Johansson, Smith, Streep, Zhao
Not bad. I think he might be overestimating Jodi Turner-Smith because it doesn't seem like it's a good sign that it's not going to any festivals, but I could definitely see her winning some breakthrough awards.
Also sort of weird that he has Zhao, but no Awkwafina. I think both can make it, but I think that Awkwafina probably has the better chance because she's more known, and her star has been on the rise the last few years.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 13, 2019 4:29:21 GMT
The rest of Kris Tapley's predictions: Best Actress: Erivo, Johansson, Ronan, Turner-Smith, Zellweger He's definitely overestimating Turner-Smith with actress being such a crowded field this year, much moreso than actor. Kaluuya's chances are better in his field.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 13, 2019 6:24:32 GMT
Awkafina will be there.
I sort of agree with the rest of his predictions.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Aug 14, 2019 23:20:35 GMT
But people here bet against Regina King. They were too fixated on SAG and BAFTA. Even though the pundits, oddsmakers had her as the clear runner.
I think morton post above makes a good point about the possibly changing dynamics of SAG.Maybe some of the precursors( BAFTA, SAG etc) are becoming less reliable, but we've been going by them for years, so even if they occasionally fail us, we still stick with them. I mean, elections haven't stopped using exit polls just because they all wrongly predicted that Hilary Clinton won the US Presidential election Basically shit happens. Sometimes people makes wrong calls. I am not convinced at all with your original argument that the British have a voting block that have proven very influential in getting their own over the line. Regina King's win was one of the most highly predicted by the pundits, oddsmakers. It's the people here who were suckered.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2019 2:39:48 GMT
Awkwafina Cynthia Erivo Helen Mirren Meryl Streep Renée Zellweger
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Post by stephen on Aug 21, 2019 18:53:05 GMT
I know a lot of people are hyped about Charlize Theron now that the Bombshell trailer has hit (and the makeup does look very good; much better than a lot of what we saw in the last two makeup winners), but I'm just not convinced what Megyn Kelly will be an awards magnet role, especially in this climate. Theron's also been strangely under-represented by the Academy; by rights she shouldn't have missed for things like Young Adult or Mad Max: Fury Road (even with the latter's genre convention, considering how big it was that year).
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 21, 2019 19:06:47 GMT
I know a lot of people are hyped about Charlize Theron now that the Bombshell trailer has hit (and the makeup does look very good; much better than a lot of what we saw in the last two makeup winners), but I'm just not convinced what Megyn Kelly will be an awards magnet role, especially in this climate. Theron's also been strangely under-represented by the Academy; by rights she shouldn't have missed for things like Young Adult or Mad Max: Fury Road (even with the latter's genre convention, considering how big it was that year). It's a biopic. Megyn Kelly does not need to be someone liked or admired by Oscar voters. They just need to admire the craft in an actress "becoming" her. Theron isn't exactly an Academy favorite (despite her previous win and afterglow nod), but she is respected and a physically transformative biopic role is probably a lot more up voters alley when in comes to acting than a niche specific black comedy or an action blockbuster mostly admired for it's technical achievements. If Bombshell gets good enough reviews, I don't see how Theron can't be a huge threat for a nod. Especially with a make-up job that effective.
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Post by stephen on Aug 21, 2019 19:13:17 GMT
For every biopic that scores well with AMPAS, another dozen miss the boat entirely. But as I said this time last year when Vice was being bandied about as a winner threat for Bale and Adams, I said that the roles would be their biggest hindrance. The Academy hardly acknowledges performances of real-life villains/heavily controversial individuals, especially when they are living. The only exceptions that I came up with prior to Vice were Claus von Bulow (which won), Byron de la Beckwith and Jordan Belfort. Even someone like Winston Churchill's reputation is still viewed somewhat positively overall (especially in the era depicted in the film that won Oldman his Oscar), and as for Vice, it obviously over-performed with expectations (and I'm convinced a lot of that was hype that people bought into at the right time, i.e. American Hustle).
Will Bombshell be as big of a hit, and will it score acting nods? I'm not yet convinced. Most of the characters depicted are insanely controversial, if not outright reviled. It's rare that figures like that, especially when they are still alive and active, get recognized with Oscar nominations, and with Theron's surprisingly sparse record with AMPAS given her caliber, I'm just not convinced.
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Post by pupdurcs on Aug 21, 2019 19:25:31 GMT
For every biopic that scores well with AMPAS, another dozen miss the boat entirely. But as I said this time last year when Vice was being bandied about as a winner threat for Bale and Adams, I said that the roles would be their biggest hindrance. The Academy hardly acknowledges performances of real-life villains/heavily controversial individuals, especially when they are living. The only exceptions that I came up with prior to Vice were Claus von Bulow (which won), Byron de la Beckwith and Jordan Belfort. Even someone like Winston Churchill's reputation is still viewed somewhat positively overall (especially in the era depicted in the film that won Oldman his Oscar), and as for Vice, it obviously over-performed with expectations (and I'm convinced a lot of that was hype that people bought into at the right time, i.e. American Hustle). Will Bombshell be as big of a hit, and will it score acting nods? I'm not yet convinced. Most of the characters depicted are insanely controversial, if not outright reviled. It's rare that figures like that, especially when they are still alive and active, get recognized with Oscar nominations, and with Theron's surprisingly sparse record with AMPAS given her caliber, I'm just not convinced. The biggest hindrance for Vice was mediocre reviews, and it still got nominated everywhere on account of it's status as an inevitable frontrunner and it's pedigree. If the reviews had actually been great, someone like Amy Adams (who got so-so personal reviews and still scored a nod) probably would have won. The roles had nothing to do with lack of wins in this particular case So I'm not sure Vice is a great case study. A movie with 61 on metacritic and 66 on Rotten Tomatoes by all rights shouldnt have been getting any major above the line nominations. The fact that it was perceived as "an important real life story" helped it enormously as far as nominations. It needed far better reviews for wins. You can't blame it on the characters. I'm not saying you don't have a possible point, but Vice isn't a strong example to use.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 21, 2019 19:26:57 GMT
I know a lot of people are hyped about Charlize Theron now that the Bombshell trailer has hit (and the makeup does look very good; much better than a lot of what we saw in the last two makeup winners), but I'm just not convinced what Megyn Kelly will be an awards magnet role, especially in this climate. Theron's also been strangely under-represented by the Academy; by rights she shouldn't have missed for things like Young Adult or Mad Max: Fury Road (even with the latter's genre convention, considering how big it was that year). Yes, she got an afterglow nomination for North Country, but I feel she wasn't even close for Young Adult or Mad Max:Fury Road despite the fact that 2011 ended up with a pretty weak set of nominees, and 2015 they still preferred to go with Jennifer Lawrence for the almost rotten Joy. I am impressed with her makeup too, but I feel like the Fox News thing is a no one cares as we saw already with The Loudest Voice. I think she could get in because it doesn't seem really competitive this year, but I could also see her being left out because I feel now there's about only 8-10 actresses that have any actual chance of being nominated this year, assuming Streep goes Supporting. Erivo Johansson Awkwafina Theron Zellweger Jones Portman Nyong'o Woodard Mirren Right now I would predict Theron because I feel that everyone else under her have more obstacles, but if Streep is does go lead or if Amazon doesn't completely mess up The Aeronauts's chances or someone new surprises at the festivals, or Nyong'o manages to come back and win critics prizes and do what Toni Collette couldn't do last year, I could see Theron missing in the end again.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 21, 2019 19:31:18 GMT
For every biopic that scores well with AMPAS, another dozen miss the boat entirely. But as I said this time last year when Vice was being bandied about as a winner threat for Bale and Adams, I said that the roles would be their biggest hindrance. The Academy hardly acknowledges performances of real-life villains/heavily controversial individuals, especially when they are living. The only exceptions that I came up with prior to Vice were Claus von Bulow (which won), Byron de la Beckwith and Jordan Belfort. Even someone like Winston Churchill's reputation is still viewed somewhat positively overall (especially in the era depicted in the film that won Oldman his Oscar), and as for Vice, it obviously over-performed with expectations (and I'm convinced a lot of that was hype that people bought into at the right time, i.e. American Hustle). Will Bombshell be as big of a hit, and will it score acting nods? I'm not yet convinced. Most of the characters depicted are insanely controversial, if not outright reviled. It's rare that figures like that, especially when they are still alive and active, get recognized with Oscar nominations, and with Theron's surprisingly sparse record with AMPAS given her caliber, I'm just not convinced. Sorry OT, but I wonder if we'll have a right place, right time film this year like American Hustle or Vice that does well in phase 1, but not in phase 2. Or conversely if there will be anything that's hurt by screeners coming out too late like If Beale Street Could Talk probably was at SAG, or of course the infamous case of Selma's screeners.
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Post by stephen on Aug 21, 2019 20:18:59 GMT
I know a lot of people are hyped about Charlize Theron now that the Bombshell trailer has hit (and the makeup does look very good; much better than a lot of what we saw in the last two makeup winners), but I'm just not convinced what Megyn Kelly will be an awards magnet role, especially in this climate. Theron's also been strangely under-represented by the Academy; by rights she shouldn't have missed for things like Young Adult or Mad Max: Fury Road (even with the latter's genre convention, considering how big it was that year). Yes, she got an afterglow nomination for North Country, but I feel she wasn't even close for Young Adult or Mad Max:Fury Road despite the fact that 2011 ended up with a pretty weak set of nominees, and 2015 they still preferred to go with Jennifer Lawrence for the almost rotten Joy. I am impressed with her makeup too, but I feel like the Fox News thing is a no one cares as we saw already with The Loudest Voice. I think she could get in because it doesn't seem really competitive this year, but I could also see her being left out because I feel now there's about only 8-10 actresses that have any actual chance of being nominated this year, assuming Streep goes Supporting. Erivo Johansson Awkwafina Theron Zellweger Jones Portman Nyong'o Woodard Mirren Right now I would predict Theron because I feel that everyone else under her have more obstacles, but if Streep is does go lead or if Amazon doesn't completely mess up The Aeronauts's chances or someone new surprises at the festivals, or Nyong'o manages to come back and win critics prizes and do what Toni Collette couldn't do last year, I could see Theron missing in the end again. I'll try and address each one of the potential nominees you listed: Cynthia Erivo: As I enumerated, she's the one I would bet on at this moment. Of course, the backlash against her comments is still something to factor in, but I also expect that Erivo's PR team is aware of this and will work overtime to counteract it. Ultimately, she'll need the film to be good and at least score some other nods, especially an above-the-line one or two. Scarlett Johansson: Looks to have a strong year and she's been due for a breakout with the Academy. And she does look very fine in the trailers for Marriage Story. But I mean, if we're going to talk about backlash, Johansson's comments have elicited much more reaction than Erivo's. And I worry that this performance might be too subdued for Oscar. But I can see her being a critical favorite, and that might give her the necessary momentum, especially if she can pick up a Volpi Cup along the way. Awkwafina: By rights, she should be here; The Farewell feels like the sort of indie hit that does very well with AMPAS. But Asian women have found it near-impossible to break through here, and as wonderful as she was here, will Awkwafina be the first full-blooded Asian actress to break that ceiling? I feel if she does, you'd have to think The Farewell is taking BP. Awkwafina needs the passion of the film to sustain her, I think. Charlize Theron: See my comments above. Hugely controversial living person (which the Academy hardly favors), strangely under-represented by the Academy despite her starpower/winner status/popularity, unknown quantity of the film itself (reviews of the script have been pretty mixed). I'm not ruling her out, but I'm not yet convinced. Renee Zellweger: Feels pretty reliable for a nod at the moment. The story writes itself: an Oscar winner returns from a long hiatus to play one of the most beloved and turbulent figures in Tinseltown history, and from the looks of it, she's got Garland pretty well nailed. Question is, is there a push to give Zellweger her second Oscar now, or is this more a comeback story to open doors for the next phase of her career? Felicity Jones: Amazon doesn't seem like it knows what it wants to do with this movie. Rumor is that it's good and Jones has a potentially winning role, but the inconsistency with the scheduling gives me a little bit of pause. Still, Jones is a veteran of the campaign trail and she fits the ingenue mold they like here. I'd pencil her in for now. Natalie Portman: I seem to recall some test screenings didn't do too well, but I guess they're still trying to push it? Even so, I'm not quite convinced... but that could be my Portman bias. Still, could be Vox Lux Redux. Lupita Nyong'o: I'm not too convinced on Nyong'o. Us doesn't seem to have the cache or staying power of Get Out, and while Nyong'o has been primed for an afterglow nod for a while, it feels like the film hasn't hooked the way it should have for an early release. Alfre Woodard: Hearing a lot of people buzzing about Clemency, but I get the feeling this might have a Melissa Leo in Frozen River ceiling: the adored and acclaimed indie darling starring a veteran actress that finally gets her some welcome awards love (although Woodard does have a prior nomination, it's been over 35 years and not really all that remembered nowadays). It'd be neat, though, if she could get more traction -- I've always liked her. Helen Mirren: I know nothing about this movie. Feels like people are talking about it only because it has a perceived overdue vet in McKellen (and I worry that if he did get traction, there'd be some sort of backlash if they start asking questions about his relationship to Bryan Singer and whispers about his personal life). It's possible, but Mirren's missed a fair amount this decade when a lot of people thought she was in.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 22, 2019 7:26:29 GMT
Yes, she got an afterglow nomination for North Country, but I feel she wasn't even close for Young Adult or Mad Max:Fury Road despite the fact that 2011 ended up with a pretty weak set of nominees, and 2015 they still preferred to go with Jennifer Lawrence for the almost rotten Joy. I am impressed with her makeup too, but I feel like the Fox News thing is a no one cares as we saw already with The Loudest Voice. I think she could get in because it doesn't seem really competitive this year, but I could also see her being left out because I feel now there's about only 8-10 actresses that have any actual chance of being nominated this year, assuming Streep goes Supporting. Erivo Johansson Awkwafina Theron Zellweger Jones Portman Nyong'o Woodard Mirren Right now I would predict Theron because I feel that everyone else under her have more obstacles, but if Streep is does go lead or if Amazon doesn't completely mess up The Aeronauts's chances or someone new surprises at the festivals, or Nyong'o manages to come back and win critics prizes and do what Toni Collette couldn't do last year, I could see Theron missing in the end again. I'll try and address each one of the potential nominees you listed: Cynthia Erivo: As I enumerated, she's the one I would bet on at this moment. Of course, the backlash against her comments is still something to factor in, but I also expect that Erivo's PR team is aware of this and will work overtime to counteract it. Ultimately, she'll need the film to be good and at least score some other nods, especially an above-the-line one or two. Scarlett Johansson: Looks to have a strong year and she's been due for a breakout with the Academy. And she does look very fine in the trailers for Marriage Story. But I mean, if we're going to talk about backlash, Johansson's comments have elicited much more reaction than Erivo's. And I worry that this performance might be too subdued for Oscar. But I can see her being a critical favorite, and that might give her the necessary momentum, especially if she can pick up a Volpi Cup along the way. Awkwafina: By rights, she should be here; The Farewell feels like the sort of indie hit that does very well with AMPAS. But Asian women have found it near-impossible to break through here, and as wonderful as she was here, will Awkwafina be the first full-blooded Asian actress to break that ceiling? I feel if she does, you'd have to think The Farewell is taking BP. Awkwafina needs the passion of the film to sustain her, I think. Charlize Theron: See my comments above. Hugely controversial living person (which the Academy hardly favors), strangely under-represented by the Academy despite her starpower/winner status/popularity, unknown quantity of the film itself (reviews of the script have been pretty mixed). I'm not ruling her out, but I'm not yet convinced. Renee Zellweger: Feels pretty reliable for a nod at the moment. The story writes itself: an Oscar winner returns from a long hiatus to play one of the most beloved and turbulent figures in Tinseltown history, and from the looks of it, she's got Garland pretty well nailed. Question is, is there a push to give Zellweger her second Oscar now, or is this more a comeback story to open doors for the next phase of her career? Felicity Jones: Amazon doesn't seem like it knows what it wants to do with this movie. Rumor is that it's good and Jones has a potentially winning role, but the inconsistency with the scheduling gives me a little bit of pause. Still, Jones is a veteran of the campaign trail and she fits the ingenue mold they like here. I'd pencil her in for now. Natalie Portman: I seem to recall some test screenings didn't do too well, but I guess they're still trying to push it? Even so, I'm not quite convinced... but that could be my Portman bias. Still, could be Vox Lux Redux. Lupita Nyong'o: I'm not too convinced on Nyong'o. Us doesn't seem to have the cache or staying power of Get Out, and while Nyong'o has been primed for an afterglow nod for a while, it feels like the film hasn't hooked the way it should have for an early release. Alfre Woodard: Hearing a lot of people buzzing about Clemency, but I get the feeling this might have a Melissa Leo in Frozen River ceiling: the adored and acclaimed indie darling starring a veteran actress that finally gets her some welcome awards love (although Woodard does have a prior nomination, it's been over 35 years and not really all that remembered nowadays). It'd be neat, though, if she could get more traction -- I've always liked her. Helen Mirren: I know nothing about this movie. Feels like people are talking about it only because it has a perceived overdue vet in McKellen (and I worry that if he did get traction, there'd be some sort of backlash if they start asking questions about his relationship to Bryan Singer and whispers about his personal life). It's possible, but Mirren's missed a fair amount this decade when a lot of people thought she was in. D'oh I realized later that I left off Saoirse Ronan. I would put her above Theron and Zellweger, who are even for me, because I think only one of them gets in. So 1. Cynthia Erivo - I still think she wins at this point even if I'm having some doubts now. 2. Scarlett Johansson - If not Erivo, Johansson, but if she really does pull off double nominations, I think they reward her in supporting. 3. Awkafina - True AMPAS hasn't been kind to Asian actresses, but I think she can make it. 4. Saoirse Ronan - I was iffy about another Little Women adaptation doing well, but I guess 25 years is long enough for new voters to not really know anything about the 1994 version. Plus, everyone else has major cons. 5. Renee Zellweger - I don't trust that release date, but Roadside Attractions is going pretty hard for it. Plus, Hollywood loves a comeback. I also feel given Theron's spotty track record that they'll find a way to ignore her again probably until she stars in a Best Picture nominee which I don't think Bombshell will be. 6. Charlize Theron - Very impressive makeup work, but I think the character plus subject matter will be a big no one cares. 7. Felicity Jones - I could see her moving up after Telluride, but ugh Amazon. They're releasing a teaser for The Report tomorrow, or I guess it would be today now, and I read that they've already done industry screenings for it. So I think they're just confused this year, and in the end I feel that their poor strategy will hurt them. 8. Natalie Portman - Fox Searchlight, but I feel like they're just dumping it. 9. Alfre Woodard - I think Neon has their hands full, but maybe it will get a from Toronto. 10. Lupita Nyong'o - I don't think she has any chance, but to make it an even 10, she will have the fact that Universal probably won't have anything else aside from 1917 because I think actors will stay away from nominating anyone from Cats and Queen & Slim is avoiding the festival route which seems strange because it seems like the type of film that needs to go that route to build buzz.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 22, 2019 11:35:32 GMT
I don't see Theron happening. Maybe not even a nomination.
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 1, 2019 22:41:36 GMT
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story * Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Renée Zellweger, Judy Awkwafina, The Farewell
I can't choose between Johansson and Erivo.
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morton
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Post by morton on Sept 1, 2019 23:46:13 GMT
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story * Cynthia Erivo, HarrietSaoirse Ronan, Little WomenRenée Zellweger, JudyAwkwafina, The FarewellI can't choose between Johansson and Erivo. This is my lineup too right now. For some reason I don't see both Zellweger and Theron making it in unless Harriet flops, I guess because both roles involve transformation, and Zellweger should definitely be in with her reviews. Plus, they've passed over Theron for both Young Adult, in a weak year, and Fury Road in another not so strong year, so I wouldn't be surprised if that were to happen again.
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Post by morton on Sept 11, 2019 0:44:44 GMT
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story * Cynthia Erivo, HarrietSaoirse Ronan, Little WomenRenée Zellweger, JudyAwkwafina, The FarewellI can't choose between Johansson and Erivo. This is my lineup too right now. For some reason I don't see both Zellweger and Theron making it in unless Harriet flops, I guess because both roles involve transformation, and Zellweger should definitely be in with her reviews. Plus, they've passed over Theron for both Young Adult, in a weak year, and Fury Road in another not so strong year, so I wouldn't be surprised if that were to happen again. Whoops looks like I put my kiss of death on another movie/actor although so far my luck has been pretty good this season. Anyhow it looks like Erivo's chances to win are done. I don't even think she gets the nomination with how people are tearing apart Harriet on Twitter now. Best Actress is empty, but it's not that empty.
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