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Post by stephen on Jun 21, 2019 20:07:20 GMT
Well gang, the year's half-done and we've finally gotten the mostly-stale taste of 2018 out of our mouths, so we might as well begin cracking our prognostication joints and get to cooking up some early-ass predictions on what 2019's awards season will anoint. And I figured, why not start with the most popular category on this site: Best Actress.
So let's talk about potential contenders and their pros and cons, shall we?
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 21, 2019 20:51:43 GMT
I'm not sure what surprises the festivals will bring, but I think it's going to be difficult to beat Cynthia Erivo provided that Harriet is at least decent, I'd say around at least 70 MC. Even though she hasn't been in many films yet, the role just seems too baity to beat, and she's proven her talent on stage as well as in last year's Bad Times at the El Royale. Plus, I have no doubt that she'll campaign hard for it.
Possible other nominees, 2. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts - Apparently there was a test screening recently because a group of posters at Awards_Watch moved her and the film up in their predictions. I did write her off in a poll over there about even getting a nomination, lol, because of how badly On the Basis of Sex flopped for her when most actresses I feel would have been nominated, and maybe even won considering the timing of it. It seems like she's back in her wheelhouse now though, and The Aeronauts did seem like it could at least vie in several below the line categories even while I was wishing it would die because I admit I'm biased against Eddie Redmayne getting a third nomination already, so not hard to believe it could be more especially since Best Actress doesn't look that strong on paper yet.
3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women - It looks gorgeous, but still I'm not sure how much differently the story can really be adapted without changing major things like Jo and Laurie ending up together or something. Still depending on the festivals, I could see Ronan getting in because she's obviously well liked and on an upswing now, and it's a good role just not a winning role at all.
4. Renee Zellweger, Judy - The industry loves a comeback, and award shows love biopics. Yet it might be a dud at the box office though and/or with critics.
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell - The Academy hasn't been kind to Asian actors especially actresses, but she did have a big breakthrough last year. I think it depends how well that this does at the box office because I could see it being too small and forgotten if it doesn't have good legs there.
6. Charlize Theron, Fair and Balanced - I heard that it's a bit of a mess, but she looks so much like Megyn Kelly that it might not matter too much.
7. Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky - It seems like she'll be Fox Searchlight's main push for Best Actress, but reshoots don't inspire much confidence.
8. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat - I feel that she'll go Supporting and make it there, but she's Meryl and could probably be nominated in whatever category she wants to be nominated in.
9. Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window - I don't have any faith in this, but maybe it will be more like Gone Girl and less like The Girl on the Train.
10. Julianne Moore, The Glorias: A Life on the Roads - I could see her factoring in with some critics and smaller award shows, but I feel like she could be like Susan Sarandon who also finally won on her fifth nomination and not ever be nominated again or at least have to wait a really long time before they are nominated again.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 21, 2019 21:09:53 GMT
Gentle push for Helen Mirren - The Good Liar - The book is pretty ace and not light (though the film could be?), a capable director, a more than capable co-star. Trailer for this is coming soon apparently. Mirren always does great work opposite big name talented males - Hopkins, Pacino, Plummer etc. I think there's a possibility for older nominees all over the place this year tbh.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 21, 2019 21:17:34 GMT
nice writeup morton, except you forgot Alfre Woodard
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 21, 2019 21:48:20 GMT
nice writeup morton , except you forgot Alfre Woodard Sorry I thought about including her, but it seems like Neon has a lot on their plate after Cannes. They did great with I, Tonya, but I don't know what they were doing last year with Vox Lux. I know it wasn't the easiest sell, but I thought they would have gotten Natalie Portman more traction. Same with Helen Mirren. It seems like Joker could be a big priority for Warner Brothers, and The Ballad of Richard Jewell will probably come out this year too which might be another big push for them.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Jun 22, 2019 2:23:05 GMT
I'm not sure what surprises the festivals will bring, but I think it's going to be difficult to beat Cynthia Erivo provided that Harriet is at least decent, I'd say around at least 70 MC. Even though she hasn't been in many films yet, the role just seems too baity to beat, and she's proven her talent on stage as well as in last year's Bad Times at the El Royale. Plus, I have no doubt that she'll campaign hard for it. Possible other nominees, 2. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts - Apparently there was a test screening recently because a group of posters at Awards_Watch moved her and the film up in their predictions. I did write her off in a poll over there about even getting a nomination, lol, because of how badly On the Basis of Sex flopped for her when most actresses I feel would have been nominated, and maybe even won considering the timing of it. It seems like she's back in her wheelhouse now though, and The Aeronauts did seem like it could at least vie in several below the line categories even while I was wishing it would die because I admit I'm biased against Eddie Redmayne getting a third nomination already, so not hard to believe it could be more especially since Best Actress doesn't look that strong on paper yet. 3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women - It looks gorgeous, but still I'm not sure how much differently the story can really be adapted without changing major things like Jo and Laurie ending up together or something. Still depending on the festivals, I could see Ronan getting in because she's obviously well liked and on an upswing now, and it's a good role just not a winning role at all. 4. Renee Zellweger, Judy - The industry loves a comeback, and award shows love biopics. Yet it might be a dud at the box office though and/or with critics. 5. Awkwafina, The Farewell - The Academy hasn't been kind to Asian actors especially actresses, but she did have a big breakthrough last year. I think it depends how well that this does at the box office because I could see it being too small and forgotten if it doesn't have good legs there. 6. Charlize Theron, Fair and Balanced - I heard that it's a bit of a mess, but she looks so much like Megyn Kelly that it might not matter too much. 7. Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky - It seems like she'll be Fox Searchlight's main push for Best Actress, but reshoots don't inspire much confidence. 8. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat - I feel that she'll go Supporting and make it there, but she's Meryl and could probably be nominated in whatever category she wants to be nominated in. 9. Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window - I don't have any faith in this, but maybe it will be more like Gone Girl and less like The Girl on the Train. 10. Julianne Moore, The Glorias: A Life on the Roads - I could see her factoring in with some critics and smaller award shows, but I feel like she could be like Susan Sarandon who also finally won on her fifth nomination and not ever be nominated again or at least have to wait a really long time before they are nominated again. Being timely can only do so much. The film had a yellow metascore, was third priority for Focus and didn’t breakout at the box office. Realistically, no one other than Streep would’ve been nominated or won for that. I’m not sure where you stand personally, but I feel like she’s been dismissed and written off by most more because they hate her than anything involving OTBOS
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 22, 2019 2:55:02 GMT
I'm not sure what surprises the festivals will bring, but I think it's going to be difficult to beat Cynthia Erivo provided that Harriet is at least decent, I'd say around at least 70 MC. Even though she hasn't been in many films yet, the role just seems too baity to beat, and she's proven her talent on stage as well as in last year's Bad Times at the El Royale. Plus, I have no doubt that she'll campaign hard for it. Possible other nominees, 2. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts - Apparently there was a test screening recently because a group of posters at Awards_Watch moved her and the film up in their predictions. I did write her off in a poll over there about even getting a nomination, lol, because of how badly On the Basis of Sex flopped for her when most actresses I feel would have been nominated, and maybe even won considering the timing of it. It seems like she's back in her wheelhouse now though, and The Aeronauts did seem like it could at least vie in several below the line categories even while I was wishing it would die because I admit I'm biased against Eddie Redmayne getting a third nomination already, so not hard to believe it could be more especially since Best Actress doesn't look that strong on paper yet. 3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women - It looks gorgeous, but still I'm not sure how much differently the story can really be adapted without changing major things like Jo and Laurie ending up together or something. Still depending on the festivals, I could see Ronan getting in because she's obviously well liked and on an upswing now, and it's a good role just not a winning role at all. 4. Renee Zellweger, Judy - The industry loves a comeback, and award shows love biopics. Yet it might be a dud at the box office though and/or with critics. 5. Awkwafina, The Farewell - The Academy hasn't been kind to Asian actors especially actresses, but she did have a big breakthrough last year. I think it depends how well that this does at the box office because I could see it being too small and forgotten if it doesn't have good legs there. 6. Charlize Theron, Fair and Balanced - I heard that it's a bit of a mess, but she looks so much like Megyn Kelly that it might not matter too much. 7. Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky - It seems like she'll be Fox Searchlight's main push for Best Actress, but reshoots don't inspire much confidence. 8. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat - I feel that she'll go Supporting and make it there, but she's Meryl and could probably be nominated in whatever category she wants to be nominated in. 9. Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window - I don't have any faith in this, but maybe it will be more like Gone Girl and less like The Girl on the Train. 10. Julianne Moore, The Glorias: A Life on the Roads - I could see her factoring in with some critics and smaller award shows, but I feel like she could be like Susan Sarandon who also finally won on her fifth nomination and not ever be nominated again or at least have to wait a really long time before they are nominated again. Being timely can only do so much. The film had a yellow metascore, was third priority for Focus and didn’t breakout at the box office. Realistically, no one other than Streep would’ve been nominated or won for that. I’m not sure where you stand personally, but I feel like she’s been dismissed and written off by most more because they hate her than anything involving OTBOS Well I guess that's true, but that seems like such a baity role that it's hard to believe that she didn't get any traction for it, and that some critics felt she was all wrong for the role. Generally I like her though, and I don't like all the Felicia talk. (Actually I don't like that about any actor or actress even if I happen to think they're boring because I usually don't find it to be funny, and it seems there's no pleasing people. Either actors are too hammy, or they're dull.) I'm just not here for Redmayne though. He's talented, but I found The Danish Girl just to be cringey all around like the worst type of Oscar bait that almost worked. I just need a break from him and Tom Hooper for awhile. (I think I'm safe from Cats this year except in technical categories, but I had a feeling this might be Amazon's #1 push when they dated it for November.)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2019 10:40:26 GMT
Right now, I'm thinking:
Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Helen Mirren, The Good Liar Alfre Woodard, Clemency Renée Zellweger, Judy
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Jun 22, 2019 11:12:11 GMT
Cynthia Erivo
Saoirse Ronan
Awkwafina
Felicity Jones (lots of early buzz about her performance).
Thomasin McKenzie.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jun 22, 2019 12:22:42 GMT
Gentle push for Helen Mirren - The Good Liar - The book is pretty ace and not light (though the film could be?), a capable director, a more than capable co-star. Trailer for this is coming soon apparently. Mirren always does great work opposite big name talented males - Hopkins, Pacino, Plummer etc. I think there's a possibility for older nominees all over the place this year tbh. Yeah tell that to Hitchcock, A Hundred-foot Journey, Woman in Gold, Trumbo, Leisure Seekers... all of her oscar bait movies in these last few years were ignored by Academy. It's funny to me that people would say that for Mirren but there will be plenty of people predicting Hanks or Pacino in Supporting Actor I bet this year when those guys have missed in high profile stuff for 20 years and 30 years..........respectively........just saying.......
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 22, 2019 12:53:08 GMT
Awkwafina Erivo Jones Ronan Theron
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Post by TerryMontana on Jun 22, 2019 16:33:04 GMT
Cynthia Erivo - She's the front runner imo. Baity role in movie like the ones the Academy loves. Amy Adams - Could be the pleasant surprise of the Oscars. Probably not but I give it a shot. Natalie Portman - I guess they'll try to get her a nod. One of the Academy's sweethearts. Scarlett Johansson - For Baumbach's project or for Little Women? More likely for NB's movie, she has a chance. I believe it's time she gets a nomination. Alfre Woodard - Dunno... A nod at the most, I guess. Cate Blanchett - If the movie is good, she has a strong chance of getting nominated. Meryl Streep - She will be nominated. BA or BSA, for Laundromat or Little Women. It's a custom! Saoirse Ronan - Adaptation of a classic novel/movie. After #metoo, Hollywood seems to pay attention to this kind of films. Also, after 3 nominations, maybe it's time for Ronan to win this. Helen Mirren - Maybe this year the Academy "gets retro", esp. in the acting categories. I have a good feeling for this movie. Great cast and director adapting a fine novel. So yeah, why not getting a nod and after that who knows? Renee Zellweger - Her only chance is because this is a biopic. Awkwafina - I'm surprised we're discussing it. Never heard before she might be a contender. So, I don't think a nod is possible. Felicity Jones - Don't see this happening. Charlize Theron - A nomination is very possible I think. Margot Robbie, Nicole KIdman - I'm not familiar with the story so I don't know if any of them could be in the BA lot but I find it difficult for both to be nominated. Possible but not very likely.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 22, 2019 17:42:04 GMT
Erivo might be the frontrunner but let me play devil's advocate for a second and suggest that a project's "baitiness" can always be overestimated. Case in point, Chiwetal Ejiofor in 2013, who had all the same things working for him that Erivo supposedly does this year. So let's pump the brakes on Erivo for a second and remember the glowing praise Woodard received for Clemency at Sundance which also sounds like a baity project (Dead Man Walking anyone?). This performance has already been tested and seems like a winner. I know Neon isn't the cream of the crop on their Oscar resume, but what else do they have to push this year? Nothing. Woodard is going to be in the conversation in a big way this season and it's wrong to underestimate her.
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Post by stephen on Jun 22, 2019 17:54:45 GMT
Erivo might be the frontrunner but let me play devil's advocate for a second and suggest that a project's "baitiness" can always be overestimated. Case in point, Chiwetal Ejiofor in 2013, who had all the same things working for him that Erivo supposedly does this year. So let's pump the brakes on Erivo for a second and remember the glowing praise Woodard received for Clemency at Sundance which also sounds like a baity project ( Dead Man Walking anyone?). This performance has already been tested and seems like a winner. I know Neon isn't the cream of the crop on their Oscar resume, but what else do they have to push this year? Nothing. Woodard is going to be in the conversation in a big way this season and it's wrong to underestimate her. You are right that someone can indeed be "too perfect" and wind up backfiring (though in Ejiofor's case, he was up against an extremely popular Hollywood actor who had the baitiest role of the bunch, going through physical transformations and a hitherto unparalleled career renaissance). And I do agree that Woodard should be watched closely. However, Neon lucked out with one film but that could very well be a fluke. And while Woodard is respected, she ain't exactly Susan Sarandon.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 22, 2019 18:43:34 GMT
Erivo might be the frontrunner but let me play devil's advocate for a second and suggest that a project's "baitiness" can always be overestimated. Case in point, Chiwetal Ejiofor in 2013, who had all the same things working for him that Erivo supposedly does this year. So let's pump the brakes on Erivo for a second and remember the glowing praise Woodard received for Clemency at Sundance which also sounds like a baity project ( Dead Man Walking anyone?). This performance has already been tested and seems like a winner. I know Neon isn't the cream of the crop on their Oscar resume, but what else do they have to push this year? Nothing. Woodard is going to be in the conversation in a big way this season and it's wrong to underestimate her. And while Woodard is respected, she ain't exactly Susan Sarandon. okay, now that's true. But she is very respected and does have a long career behind her, and if the film resonates with voters I can see there being a comeback angle working in her favor. She was only nominated once before for Cross Creek but I have to assume she was close for Passion Fish. Voters love a comeback. As for the 2013 race, you're right, McConaughey had a very baity role and he was also an established star riding a massive wave of career success at the moment, and Erivo doesn't have that. She received some high marks for El Royale but the majority of critics wrote off that film. And as for baity historical race-themed projects go, it's hard not to forget how Selma was overlooked in 2014 the year after 12 Years a Slave won three big 8 prizes. Oyelowo's role is as baity as they come and he received only praise for it. Still, not even a nomination. The Academy defaulted to American Sniper instead. Birth of a Nation comes to mind too for the 2016 race. And as much as that film was clouded in controversy, I don't think that alone can be attributed to its general failure. Look at Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody. Not a perfect 1-to-1 comparison I know, but I still don't think the rape coverage alone is what kept that film back. Erivo needs to have more than baitniness on her side, and she presumably has a long career ahead of her so I can also see them passing her over for someone more established. She'll have other chances. All I'm saying is that baity films have been overlooked before. Hell, they're overlooked every year. There are plenty of arguments in Erivo's favor but I think it's ill-advised to leave Woodard out of the conversation because her film has already been screened and already has that early buzz. I don't know if she'll win but she definitely seems ripe for a nomination and as of right now she's the surest bet. And I still maintain that Neon having nothing else on their awards slate definitely helps Woodard. Not the best distributor I know, but they only have one film to push (although I guess they could some weight behind Sciamma too, given how well non-English films did this last year).
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Post by stephen on Jun 28, 2019 17:16:19 GMT
A trend that should be noted is that in the last few years, the Best Actress winner has usually had their films do strongly outside of them. Room overperformed with a Director nomination, La La Land was obviously a juggernaut, Three Billboards was the frontrunner for quite some time, and The Favourite tied for the most nominations of the year. In this decade, only Streep (who had a substantial narrative pushed by Weinstein, as well as the fact her film also couped another win), Blanchett (critical sweeper whose film likely just missed the BP cutoff) and Moore (overdue narrative, banner year and thin competition including two prior winners) had their films miss nominations in Best Picture.
It's worth noting that the expansion likely has to do with a lot of this, but it's still a trend to keep in mind this year.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 28, 2019 19:51:47 GMT
A trend that should be noted is that in the last few years, the Best Actress winner has usually had their films do strongly outside of them. Room overperformed with a Director nomination, La La Land was obviously a juggernaut, Three Billboards was the frontrunner for quite some time, and The Favourite tied for the most nominations of the year. In this decade, only Streep (who had a substantial narrative pushed by Weinstein, as well as the fact her film also couped another win), Blanchett (critical sweeper whose film likely just missed the BP cutoff) and Moore (overdue narrative, banner year and thin competition including two prior winners) had their films miss nominations in Best Picture. It's worth noting that the expansion likely has to do with a lot of this, but it's still a trend to keep in mind this year. That's a great point. It's not as tied to the Best Picture category as the Best Actor category is yet, but there's a definite trend there. I think this would favor Cynthia Erivo because Focus is very good about getting in their number one priority nominated for Best Picture, assuming Harriet will be their big push this year. It should also favor Felicity Jones as Amazon seems very confident in The Aeronauts, and it seems like the kind of film that could be nominated in a lot of categories because of the technical aspect of it.
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Post by quetee on Jun 29, 2019 1:25:54 GMT
A trend that should be noted is that in the last few years, the Best Actress winner has usually had their films do strongly outside of them. Room overperformed with a Director nomination, La La Land was obviously a juggernaut, Three Billboards was the frontrunner for quite some time, and The Favourite tied for the most nominations of the year. In this decade, only Streep (who had a substantial narrative pushed by Weinstein, as well as the fact her film also couped another win), Blanchett (critical sweeper whose film likely just missed the BP cutoff) and Moore (overdue narrative, banner year and thin competition including two prior winners) had their films miss nominations in Best Picture. It's worth noting that the expansion likely has to do with a lot of this, but it's still a trend to keep in mind this year. all played at either venice or Toronto.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jun 29, 2019 3:59:30 GMT
A trend that should be noted is that in the last few years, the Best Actress winner has usually had their films do strongly outside of them. Room overperformed with a Director nomination, La La Land was obviously a juggernaut, Three Billboards was the frontrunner for quite some time, and The Favourite tied for the most nominations of the year. In this decade, only Streep (who had a substantial narrative pushed by Weinstein, as well as the fact her film also couped another win), Blanchett (critical sweeper whose film likely just missed the BP cutoff) and Moore (overdue narrative, banner year and thin competition including two prior winners) had their films miss nominations in Best Picture. It's worth noting that the expansion likely has to do with a lot of this, but it's still a trend to keep in mind this year. all played at either venice or Toronto. And both Colman and Stone won the Volpi Cup at Venice. McDormand could've won too if the jury president wasn't Annette Bening, who also had her own vehicle in the Oscar race.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jul 9, 2019 6:58:49 GMT
I can tell you it would be very smart to bet on Ronan getting in for Best Actress, that is unless the race gets absurdly stacked.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2019 12:37:01 GMT
I can tell you it would be very smart to bet on Ronan getting in for Best Actress, that is unless the race gets absurdly stacked. Oscar does love prestige literary heroines - Keira Knightley and Winona Ryder (for the same character!) both got nominated without much precursor support at all.
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 10, 2019 17:46:08 GMT
The Aeronauts | Felicity Jones - Buzzed + She's well-liked. Clemency | Alfre Woodard - Veteran actress in her biggest role yet + The Lion King + Reviews. The Farewell | Awkwafina - Good-will after last year + Big push from A24? + Likely critics favorite? + Reviews. Harriet | Cynthia Erivo - I mean, duh. It just needs to be good and I have all the faith in Kasi Lemmons. Little Women | Saoirse Ronan - Previously nominated role + Academy loves her + Career Momentum
Alternates Fair and Balanced | Charlize Theron - On a good roll + Real person + Timely material The Good Liar | Helen Mirren - SAG will probably nominate her lol + Legend Nomadland | Frances McDormand - Beloved in the industry + Good will for Zhao following The Rider? + Likely a showy role that plays to her strengths Judy | Renée Zellweger - Showy as all hell + Will campaign hard + Welcome back nom? Queen and Slim | Jodie Turner Smith - Timely material + This year's breakout? + Buzzy writer / director
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 31, 2019 0:24:21 GMT
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Awkwafina, The Farewell
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Charlize Theron, Fair and Balanced
HM: Meryl Streep, The Laundromat Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts Jodie Turner Smith, Queen and Slim Natalie Portman, Lucy in the Sky
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 31, 2019 4:56:43 GMT
Awkwafina Erivo Johansson Jones Ronan
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 31, 2019 6:51:09 GMT
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Renée Zellweger, Judy Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Awkwafina, The Farewell Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Alternates: Meryl Streep, The Laundromat Charlize Theron, Fair and Balanced Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts Helen Mirren, The good Liar Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
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