Who'll win best Director next year?

I'll stick with Tarantino until we get a clearer picture on how this year will play out.

One of the interesting things is, if it isn't QT or Scorsese than you are likely looking at failed films not just good films but films so ambitious that if they're not rewarded in this way they likely didn't work at all.

QT would love to win a BD and honestly probably doesn't have a better shot than here - I dunno, what his 10th or last film might be, but here with this cast, subject, this timing and historical intersect you'd think he really goes for it and a QT winning film is going to get harder from here on out. Guess we'll have a better idea in a couple days.....

Scorsese's picture is, on paper, as ambitious as any American film ever made. It's not another gangster movie at all. Within that it's more Godfather II than Tree Of Life to name 2 others on that list.......the labor movement aspect of this - the Netflix component, how it was made, the CGI etc. adds a whole different strand of depth here.

Aside from those guys who I think will win, to pick someone else Scott Z. Burns may have the film and industry good will .....

To add to this conversation, Tarantino makes sense, unless OUATIH turns out to be another The Hateful Eight, critically and financially, which I'm not betting it will be. 

Scorsese is more interesting to me, because after Silence he's not exactly a slam dunk for a nomination, but The Irishman is way up more the academy's alley. A lot of it will depend on what kind of push Netflix gives the film.

An out of left field choice that also kinds to mind is Greta Gerwig for Little Women, which has an amazing impressive cast, and it's December release, no doubt means that Sony will be giving it a big push, but a lot of that depends on whether critics view it as just as good as Lady Bird, or a sophomoric slump for her. Really, at this point, I'm kinda expecting the winner to come from out of nowhere. 

True but a weird genre - 3 of the most famous "dark side of Hollywood" movies made by big directors - Sunset Blvd, The Player, Mulholland Drive got Best Director nods and this has the potential to be a "bigger" film in it's own time at least .........it's a tricky thing with that historically though..... No one won for it that's for sure......

Maybe I should also write about Almodovar but I feel he won't get nominated in the first place.

Scott Z. Burns - Probably. I see maybe a screenplay nomination and maybe one or two acting nominations for it, but maybe it will surprise with that September release date. I'm not sure how bumping up the Oscars is going to change things this year plus it doesn't feel like an especially strong year on paper right now outside of a few movies, so I'm not completely ruling out The Report. Plus who knows how things will be politically in the US in a few months which may or may not help revive it. 

Greta Gerwig - If it weren't a remake of a work that's had so many remakes I would be more confident in it, but I don't see Gerwig winning for it. Plus, I feel #metoo is already dead. 

John Crowley - It feels like WB is going to push Joker and maybe Just Mercy more though since this is coming out in early September. Of course, with the Oscars being pushed up, maybe a September release date won't feel like a kiss of death.

Jay Roach - Maybe a DGA nomination, but just hearing about the script, it seems like things could go very wrong with the film if they're not careful. Plus, again just going by what I've heard from the script, it feels similar to Vice, and I'm not really sure that a film like that will work again so soon. 

Noah Baumbach - I think a lot depends on Netflix. They were able to campaign other films outside of Roma, but I'm not sure if they'll go all out for more than one film. Last year I feel like The Ballad of Buster Scruggs did a lot of campaigning for itself because of the Coen brothers writing and directing it, and Adapted Screenplay wasn't an exceptionally competitive category. So I don't know how much was due to Netflix and how much it was due to the Coen brothers. 

I do feel he'll breakout someday, but maybe it won't be quite yet. Of course, even if he does get nominated, I don't see him winning maybe screenplay but definitely not directing.  

Quentin Tarantino - It feels like the kind of project that he could win for, imo, but he's already won twice, albeit for writing not directing, so that may work against him. Plus, I'm not sure how self-indulgent he might get. 

Steven Soderberg - I'm not sure either. I think he's still well liked in Hollywood, but outside of his magical year, he hasn't been on their radar that much. (Although Behind the Candelabra definitely would have gotten nominations if it had been released in theaters instead of on HBO.) Plus The Report feels similar in some ways, so they might end up hurting each other. 

Martin Scorsese - On paper, I think he has the most going for him, but I'm not sure if voters feel that one Academy Award for directing is enough. I wouldn't think so, but it took so long for him to finally win, and as we've seen in the last few years, being considered "due" or "overdue" doesn't seem to be as big of a factor as it once was. 

Marielle Heller - I hope she finally gets nominated, but I'm not sure about winning. It doesn't seem "flashy" enough, I guess is the word I'm looking for, to win.

Rian Johnson - I totally forgot about Knives Out. It could surprise, but it just seems like a fun project maybe not necessarily an awards movie. Of course, maybe it will turn out to be both. 

Sam Mendes - I forgot about Mendes too. 1917 feels very ambitious, so I think that would count for a lot if he's able to actually complete it this year and get raves for it. On the other hand, I feel like maybe the one take idea might remind people that Birdman already did and not that long ago. Certainly I wouldn't rule out a win this early, but I feel like he could get a "welcome back" type of nomination as his reward but probably not beyond that. 

If A24 can get off its ass and put some work in, it sounds like Robert Eggers would be the sort of George Miller-esque genre director that plays well with the new Academy.