Who'll win best actor next year?

I'm going to say the best living actor without an Oscar and maybe the best living actor period which would disappoint our usual best living actor of all-time blah blah blah that we always do on here ........... Ian McKellen.

Like I always say with him - he's made a case for himself as best UK actor of his era arguably - Hopkins, Finney, Caine, O'Toole etc. just in the last 10 years which is fairly amazing - especially with his never ending Lear tour - you are looking at some very old Oscar winners or at least nominees this year ....

Really have no clue on this one. Uhmm, lets go with Dev Patel.

Usually actors in comic book films are not even nominated let alone win, and Heath Ledger already won for playing The Joker, but after seeing the trailer for Joker, I felt that it might actually surprise. I don't think anyone would expect Phoenix to win for that role in a Todd Phillips movie similar to maybe how Leo finally won for a film that wasn't directed by Scorsese.

I don't see Leo winning so soon after The Revenant especially since he hasn't done anything else since then; although, it's possible that he could. I'm not sure about DeNiro. If they wanted to give him a third Oscar, Silver Linings Playbook would have been the perfect time because everyone else had already won, but there didn't seem to be any urgency to. Or maybe Bale will win his second since he was likely runner-up last year; although, I have a feeling Ford vs. Ferrari could be similar to Rush. Jonathan Pryce is in the McCarten Best Actor Universe, but The Pope doesn't seem like a high priority for Netflix right now.

Ian McKellen does seem like a good guess too, but lately they've ignored Mirren and any projects she's been in. Plus, it's been over 15 years since McKellen has been last nominated, and he's only been nominated twice, so I think it would depend on his performance mostly and not a potential overdue narrative since that obviously didn't work last year for Glenn Close who had a much stronger overdue narrative.

Second wild guess outside of Phoenix, I'll say Adam Driver for the Noah Baumbach Project. True it will be Netflix's second priority at best, but I feel like it's a matter of time before Noah Baumbach finally breaks through into Best Director and Best Picture, and this could be that project for him. I've been hearing a lot of great things about Laura Dern in it, and Driver had a great year last year and is continuing with that with a Tony nomination and great notices for The Report too. He'll also have Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker which definitely won't be an awards play, but I expect that he'll get a lot of positive reviews for that probably best in show reviews, given the type of material that he'll probably be given. Just speculation but putting it behind spoiler bars just in case.

Bale

Another musical biopic about a flamboyant British music icon directed (in part) by Dexter Fletcher, immediately after Malek's win? With a release date this early? Incredibly doubtful, regardless of the quality of the performance.

We must have very different definitions of the word 'rave'.

Pryce - I'm not even sure this is coming out this year...
Leo - Probably a nom. Not a second consecutive win. I guess (Hanks has done it).
De Niro - I wish but I'm not sure he even gets nominated.
Egerton - Not happening right after Malek.
Patel - Is this coming out in the US till the end of the year?
McKellen - Why not? Even for old times sake, he could win.
Bale - I'd definitely see a win here.
Driver - He could be a strong contender if the film is Oscar-worthy.
Banderas - I'd love it but I don't think it's very likely, especially for Laundromat. Maybe he has a chance for Pain and Glory.
Oldman - Not really, no.
Dafoe - Could get a nod for sure.
Hanks - Almost 100% he will go for the supporting category.
Chalamet - Chances are high.

So, in my mind, Driver, Chalamet and McKellen stand a good chance this year but we're really shooting in the dark.
Maybe the Academy gets retrospective this year (possible noms/wins for Dafoe, Pryce, De Niro, McKellen, Pacino, Pesci, Lithgow, Hopkins) but either way I don't believe they'll give the BA Oscar to someone playing a real life character.

The King.

Some observations - no one thinks De Niro could win.......hmmmmm, a little surprised no one thinks it.........McKellen would be a career win (?) - nobody believes an 80 year old could deserve to win is that it - supposed to be a great script, great co-star and an ace director for him too (?) - Chalamet is 23......I don't care what he does, he's not winning......this board is not going to lose their flavor of the month fascination reputation with that freakin' pick this year

This decade, every single BA winner but Affleck and Dujardin played a real life, famous figure. Four of them were iconic british people. The early release gives me pause, but the fact that Rocketman has quite good reviews and that Egerton is playing a famous singer only helps him.