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Post by mhynson27 on May 5, 2019 7:14:16 GMT
Right now going with Erivo.
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Post by Joaquim on May 5, 2019 7:46:12 GMT
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Post by sirjeremy on May 5, 2019 7:59:28 GMT
My ridiculously early prediction is Alfre Woodard.
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morton
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Post by morton on May 5, 2019 17:22:20 GMT
I'm going with Cynthia Erivo right now as well.
There doesn't seem to be a lot of other competition right now that either hasn't won and/or has a really baity role like Erivo should have.
Of course, it depends on how well Harriet is received critically and if it doesn't bomb commercially. For the former though, I think it should do well enough for Erivo to be nominated, and in this category being the lone nominee is more common than in Supporting Actress. If she gets in, the combination of the role, her likely campaigning hard for the win, and right now no one else looking like they have the right combination to beat her. Commercially I don't know how well it might do, but I think as long as the budget isn't too high, it should be okay.
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Post by pacinoyes on May 5, 2019 17:52:19 GMT
Given how old and white the movies as a whole look this year the Academy would love to award a young, talented actress of color.
I mean you don't want to make too much of that - but it definitely seems in general that's the theme of the year with at least some victory laps for older skewing films/artists............ and there's been a lot of joking about the 2 big films - OUATIH and especially The Irishman - - but it runs really deep with a lot of major films and performers (see today's Best Actor/Actress Across All Mediums thread for Helen Mirren for one etc.)
Amy Adams is a strange bird - I mean she is overdue (I guess) will be the narrative but 5 of those 6 nods are in Support and when did she deserve to win (?).........still if she gets nodded I suppose there's going to be some pressure to award her now with 7 nods and the field looks on paper at least not great.....they already have the chance to right a previous wrong this year with Bening in Support which I think may be MORE likely than Adams and if so, again, better for Erivo.
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morton
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Post by morton on May 5, 2019 18:09:19 GMT
Given how old and white the movies as a whole look this year the Academy would love to award a young, talented actress of color. I mean you don't want to make too much of that - but it definitely seems in general that's the theme of the year with at least some victory laps for older skewing films/artists............ and there's been a lot of joking about the 2 big films - OUATIH and especially The Irishman - - but it runs really deep with a lot of major films and performers (see today's Best Actor/Actress Across All Mediums thread for Helen Mirren for one etc.) Amy Adams is a strange bird - I mean she is overdue (I guess) will be the narrative but 5 of those 6 nods are in Support and when did she deserve to win (?).........still if she gets nodded I suppose there's going to be some pressure to award her now with 7 nods and the field looks on paper at least not great.....they already have the chance to right a previous wrong this year with Bening in Support which I think may be MORE likely than Adams and if so, again, better for Erivo. I agree that I think that part of Adams's problem is that I don't think she's ever been close to winning, so I don't think there's as much feeling yet that she was robbed as there was for others who were considered due. Of course, as we saw last year, even if there is an overdue narrative that can't be the only factor either. Last year, she seemed to have everything going for her on paper. Stone and Weisz were former winners, and a consensus really didn't emerge on one over the other, so they canceled each other out. The fifth spot seemed to be up for grabs as different people were nominated almost each precursor. Of course, critics' favorite Regina King wasn't even nominated at SAG or BAFTA, yet Adams couldn't win at either of those places. Plus, Vice was nominated for Best Picture while If Beale Street Could Talk wasn't, and Adams also had the success of Sharp Objects. This plus The Woman and the Window seeming like The Girl on the Train or Gone Girl makes me doubt that this will be Adams's year either. |
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on May 5, 2019 20:02:17 GMT
Saoirse will probably be a strong contender for Little Women.If she really nails the role,she could win.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on May 5, 2019 20:54:15 GMT
Cynthia Erivo
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Post by stephen on May 5, 2019 21:42:58 GMT
Erivo fits the bill: a fierce young talent (two-thirds of the way to a Triple Crown already) in an extremely baity role that seems more timely than ever. But it's only May; someone could come out of left field and shock us all.
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Post by pacinoyes on May 5, 2019 21:51:42 GMT
Erivo fits the bill: a fierce young talent ( two-thirds of the way to a Triple Crown already) in an extremely baity role that seems more timely than ever. But it's only May; someone could come out of left field and shock us all. I think that's incorrect stephen - 2/4ths of the way to the EGOT (Grammy and Tony) but not yet to the Triple Acting crown (?) |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on May 8, 2019 22:52:46 GMT
I am tired of hearing how Amy Adams is overdue. The new make-up of the Academy is not as prone to reward someone because they are overdue.
Last year she could not even win the SAG, despite 2 nods and despite frontrunner Regina King not in the race. Adams lost to Emily Blunt, who also had 2 nods, but wasn't nominated for the Oscar.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on May 8, 2019 23:16:39 GMT
Woodard and Erivo seem like really strong shots, and Woodard would have something of a precedent if her performance is anything like Susan Sarandon's in Dead Man Walking. And given how hot she's been on TV recently and also that she hasn't been nominated for an Oscar since freaking 1984 (I always forget she got passed over for Passion Fish) means there might be something of an overdue narrative working for her. Of course, we all know how well that worked for Close but maybe things will be different this year. Erivo is starting out really hot and might have a full career ahead of her, at least in the immediate future, so I can see the voters defaulting to a more established actress like Woodard in a really baity role that will be something of a comeback for her. We'll have to see if Clemency is going to have legs in other categories too but if Close can drive up so much momentum and nearly snag that trophy for an otherwise totally overlooked film, I can see Woodard going that extra mile for a project that will likely have more passion behind it. Buuuut I was also hardcore predicting 2-3 nominations for Widows until the nominations were announced (and was wrong about most of the wins) so I have no clue. We'll have to wait and see but I can't wait to how it progresses. Best Actress is going to be a hell of a race!  |
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Post by Mattsby on May 9, 2019 1:30:49 GMT
I like Erivo or maybe Woodard right now; as for Huppert in Frankie (Sony Pictures Classics) my wishful thinking says if they push her supporting we're looking at a Pacino/Huppert supporting ticket.  |
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Post by bob-coppola on May 9, 2019 1:38:16 GMT
Erivo just screams Felicity Jones as RBG to me. I have no faith in that movie's director. I'm going with Stewart but I'm not very high on anyone.
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Post by pacinoyes on May 9, 2019 8:56:09 GMT
Erivo fits the bill: a fierce young talent ( two-thirds of the way to a Triple Crown already) in an extremely baity role that seems more timely than ever. But it's only May; someone could come out of left field and shock us all. I think that's incorrect stephen - 2/4ths of the way to the EGOT (Grammy and Tony) but not yet to the Triple Acting crown (?) Btw - Erivo has a Daytime Emmy but not for acting (Outstanding Musical Performance in a Daytime Program (shared with the cast of The Color Purple) so I guess that would be an EGOT but you know not "acting" for the Triple Crown the way I consider it.........although she'd have plenty of time ..........and yes in theory Daytime Emmy's count but only in the way that low fat ice cream could be called ice cream when we damn sure know it's most certainly not. Grrrrrrrrr |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on May 12, 2019 20:18:08 GMT
I’ll stick with Adams for now.
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Post by iheartamyadams on May 13, 2019 3:17:58 GMT
Erivo just screams Felicity Jones as RBG to me. I have no faith in that movie's director. I'm going with Stewartbut I'm not very high on anyone. lol |
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Post by stabcaesar on May 13, 2019 14:28:42 GMT
I really hope The Woman in the Window turns out to be good but I still get massive The Girl on the Train vibe from the project.
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Post by TerryMontana on May 13, 2019 15:57:37 GMT
Erivo seems to be the front runner. Mainly because of the subject of the movie. It's what the Academy likes, especially in the last few years (12 years a slave, green book, black panther etc.)
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on May 16, 2019 20:11:45 GMT
I'm going with Stewart but I'm not very high on anyone. For what film? |
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Post by TerryMontana on May 16, 2019 20:57:46 GMT
Erivo seems to be the front runner. Mainly because of the subject of the movie. It's what the Academy likes, especially in the last few years (12 years a slave, green book, black panther etc.) Horrendous signature Thank you. Means a lot to me. |
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Post by mhynson27 on May 17, 2019 1:31:10 GMT
I'm going with Stewart but I'm not very high on anyone. For what film? Against All Enemies |
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