|
Post by quetee on Mar 17, 2019 23:55:46 GMT
Well, had to get this going cause I have no clue where the person is who normally does the poll. Anyway, just list what you think will win best picture.
Last year's results:
MARCH 2018
Widows 3rd
3 votes (9.38%)
On the Basis of Sex 8th
1 vote (3.13%)
First Man 1st
10 votes (31.25%)
Untitled Pippa Bianco Project 8th
1 vote (3.13%)
If Beale Street Could Talk 2nd
5 votes (15.63%)
Mary Queen of Scots 8th
1 vote (3.13%)
The Front Runner 3rd
3 votes (9.38%)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? 11th
0 votes (0%)
Ad Astra 11th
0 votes (0%)
Black Panther 7th
2 votes (6.25%)
Backseat/Cheney 3rd
3 votes (9.38%)
Boy Erased
3 votes (9.38%)
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Mar 17, 2019 23:57:36 GMT
Sticking with The Favourite. Surely 2019 will get it right.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Mar 18, 2019 0:00:31 GMT
In all seriousness, I don't buy the Scorsese or the Tarantino as winners. I'm gonna say The Farewell. Potential summer hit by A24, and as long as they get their shit together after last year, I could see it being their big push. Got a lot of buzz at Sundance.
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 18, 2019 0:08:19 GMT
The Report seems like a safe enough bet for now, but I wonder if the Academy is going to want to go with a left-field choice next year to rectify this Green Book flub. Or maybe they don't give a shit. Clearly after a strong couple years they're still not above going for predictable baity choices. Green Book feels like something that would have won in 2002.
|
|
|
Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Mar 18, 2019 1:17:42 GMT
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Mar 18, 2019 2:09:33 GMT
Jojo Rabbit
|
|
|
Post by bob-coppola on Mar 18, 2019 2:59:29 GMT
Some guesses and reasonings. Will probably be wrong, but let me try:
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood: Tarantino doing possibly the most Tarantino movie. Two beloved leads and one beloved it girl playing a real life figure. One of the most important directors of the zeitgeist that could maybe finally win Best Director.
- Jojo Rabbit: WW2/Nazi Germany satire made by an upcoming hipster filmmaker, distributed by Fox Searchlight. This could be this year's The Favourite (a british history/monarchy parody by an upcoming hipster filmmaker).
- The Report: everything about it seems like the brand of vanilla the Academy usually likes. Sometimes it's good vanilla (Spotlight), sometimes it's bad vanilla (Green Book).
- Nomadland: if it's ready for this year, who fucking knows?
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Mar 18, 2019 3:02:50 GMT
The Report seems like a safe enough bet for now, but I wonder if the Academy is going to want to go with a left-field choice next year to rectify this Green Book flub. Or maybe they don't give a shit. Clearly after a strong couple years they're still not above going for predictable baity choices. Green Book feels like something that would have won in 2002. I haven't really studied all the potential contenders yet (Just Mercy, Waves, etc.), but of the ones that I know about I'm also going with Jojo Rabbit. I do think they'll be a be a push and pull maybe forever or as long as the Oscars exist between left field choices or predictable baity choices only because people are complicated and even trying to increase diversity doesn't mean that the new members won't be big fans of stuff like Green Book (Harry Belafonte, John Singleton coming out in support of it) or Bohemian Rhapsody (Spike Lee being a huge fan of it). I think next year there will be another offbeat choice somewhat in part due to how this year turned out, but also because Jojo Rabbit seems like something that can please both groups. It's a left-field choice, but I don't think it's too far out there like Roma. It won't have the foreign film bias or Netflix bias that could have worked against Roma. I could definitely see a picture/split again though with Scorsese winning Best Director. I would vote for The Irishman in Best Picture, but I'm reminded of Silence again. Although I think The Irishman will definitely be more of a contender than that was, but I'm not sure if it would be enough of a consensus choice to win Best Picture.
|
|
|
Post by pendragon on Mar 18, 2019 3:48:47 GMT
A year ago, I pointed out that since 2008, all but one of the Best Picture winners were from a director without any previous Best Picture nominees. With Green Book winning, that trend continues. Right now, I feel pretty confident saying that the next Best Picture winner will not be The Irishman or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
As for what will win, I'll take a stab in the dark and say A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. It seems to have the best combination of subject matter, talent in front of and behind the camera and the potential to be an emotional crowd-pleaser.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Mar 18, 2019 4:12:27 GMT
A year ago, I pointed out that since 2008, all but one of the Best Picture winners were from a director without any previous Best Picture nominees. With Green Book winning, that trend continues. Right now, I feel pretty confident saying that the next Best Picture winner will not be The Irishman or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. As for what will win, I'll take a stab in the dark and say A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. It seems to have the best combination of subject matter, talent in front of and behind the camera and the potential to be an emotional crowd-pleaser. I'm massively blanking here, who's the one?
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 18, 2019 4:25:33 GMT
A year ago, I pointed out that since 2008, all but one of the Best Picture winners were from a director without any previous Best Picture nominees. With Green Book winning, that trend continues. Right now, I feel pretty confident saying that the next Best Picture winner will not be The Irishman or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I'm massively blanking here, who's the one? I assume the one winner he's talking about Birdman since Iñárritu had Babel in 2006.
|
|
|
Post by pendragon on Mar 18, 2019 4:30:03 GMT
I'm massively blanking here, who's the one? I assume the one winner he's talking about Birdman since Iñárritu had Babel in 2006. Indeed.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Mar 18, 2019 6:54:13 GMT
I'm massively blanking here, who's the one? I assume the one winner he's talking about Birdman since Iñárritu had Babel in 2006. Ah, of course.
|
|
|
Post by jimmalone on Mar 18, 2019 8:52:12 GMT
This is a total shot into the blue obviously. As some others mentioned I don't think it will be The Irishman and even less Once upon a Time in Hollywood. Not because the trend of awarding Director's films who didn't have a BP nominee before. But both just don't necessarily sound like Best Picture Winners to me, though over the years the Academy has shown that they like to spread their sympathy around a bit - and I think Irishman will get a nod.
For now I'd say The Report is as good as a guess as everything else.
|
|
LaraQ
Badass
English Rose
Posts: 2,300
Likes: 2,834
|
Post by LaraQ on Mar 18, 2019 12:54:31 GMT
I liked the JoJo Rabbit script quite a bit but this is a film about a kid who's imaginary friend is Hitler,if Taika doesn't get the tone exactly right....I also know it's been tested a couple of times and they've done some re-shoots.
|
|
|
Post by Martin Stett on Mar 18, 2019 15:48:11 GMT
I'm just gonna make a shot in the dark and vote for something waaaay out there: Lucy in the Sky.
Edit: Scratch that, Fox Searchlight has Jojo Rabbit. Ugh. I'm joining Stephen with The Farewell.
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Mar 18, 2019 17:33:46 GMT
Jojo Rabbit has a shot, I guess, and OUATIH has none. Some Oscars, ok, but not the big one.
Jojo is a tricky thing, though. It's very difficult to get it right and very easy to fail. Unknown cast and crew to me, I'm just guessing it will leave its mark.
The Irishman is a totally different story: Old hogs reuniting to make a film about a very important post-WW2 American figure. The Academy usually tends to like such stories. On the other hand, it's the heavy sfx thing and the whole netflix "battle" with the theaters and it's possible the Academy gives a few noms and awards (but not the best picture one) and washes its hands.
|
|
speeders
Based
Posts: 4,093
Likes: 2,211
|
Post by speeders on Mar 18, 2019 18:01:56 GMT
Jojo is a tricky thing, though. Unknown cast and crew to me Scarlett Johansson, Sam Rockwell and Rebel Wilson?
|
|
|
Post by moonman157 on Mar 18, 2019 18:03:31 GMT
GREEN BOOK
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Mar 18, 2019 18:04:47 GMT
Such a touching story, it deserves to compete again.
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Mar 18, 2019 18:17:15 GMT
I dunno. I just hope that having enjoyed his Oscar moment Peter Farrelly comes back to "Walter the Farting Dog", rushes it to be completed before the end of the year and wins a couple of birds again!
|
|
speeders
Based
Posts: 4,093
Likes: 2,211
|
Post by speeders on Mar 18, 2019 18:18:27 GMT
I've just seen The French Dispatch has been slated for 2020. The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit, The Pope (ugh) will likely be players but I think they'll be under too much scrutiny to win and the Academy will once again go with something blander, topical and workman-like, so The Report has a shot but I have a stronger gut feeling about Just Mercy. So that.
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Mar 18, 2019 19:01:48 GMT
I'm going to say The Irishman just makes them embarrassed at the sh it they usually reward. Like once in a while you get it - Unforgiven, No Country For Old Men, etc.
Finally the Academy puts on their big boy pants and the red carpet is going to be really great - DeNiro blowing past reporters, Pacino looking lost and confused and then............ "Mr. Pesci so great to have you back, who are wearing?"
Da faq...........
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 18, 2019 19:59:17 GMT
Jojo Rabbit
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Mar 18, 2019 21:03:23 GMT
Jojo is a tricky thing, though. Unknown cast and crew to me Scarlett Johansson, Sam Rockwell and Rebel Wilson? Oh f*ck, wrong again!! English is not my native language and when I try to think fast and type fast, Imake mistakes. What I meant was, unknown auteurs, unknown film makers: director and writer (the author of the book etc.) Sorry...
|
|